Blu-ray’s Fuzzy Future (nytimes.com)

01-05-2009, 04:31 AM

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January 5, 2009
Blu-ray’s Fuzzy Future
By MATT RICHTEL and BRAD STONE

The biggest news at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas last January was not the birth of a new product but the death of one.

A decision by Warner Brothers to withdraw support for the HD DVD video disc format sent shock waves through the electronics industry and appeared to hand the future of home entertainment to Blu-ray, a rival format.

The move set the stage for this year’s Consumer Electronics Show, which starts Wednesday under the dark cloud of a recession and a sharp downturn in consumer spending. Nearly two million square feet of convention hall will be stocked with the latest mobile phones, portable music players, digital cameras and expensive flat-screen televisions.

But many eyes will be on Blu-ray, which for the first time has the floor largely to itself as the heir apparent to the DVD. Over the last decade, DVD players and discs have generated tens of billions of dollars for Hollywood and the consumer electronics industry, so the pressure for a blockbuster sequel is high.

This year will be crucial for the new format. Heavy holiday discounting and the natural decline in electronics prices over time have pushed prices for some Blu-ray players under $200, a drop of well more than half in the last few years — and into the realm of affordability for many. At the same time, Blu-ray’s backers, including Sony and the Walt Disney Company, face a growing chorus of skeptics that says the window for a high-definition disc format may be closing fast.

One reason is that discs of all kinds may become obsolete as a new wave of digital media services starts to flow into the living room. On Monday, for example, the Korean television maker LG Electronics plans to announce a new line of high-definition televisions that connect directly to the Internet with no set-top box required. The televisions will be able to play movies and television shows from online video-on-demand services, including Netflix.

“The Blu-ray format is in jeopardy simply because the advent of downloadable HD movies is so close,” said Roger L. Kay, president of Endpoint Technologies Associates. a research and consulting company. “Streaming video from the Internet and other means of direct digital delivery are going to put optical formats out of business entirely over the next few years.”

Blu-ray’s supporters have another view. They say the technology had a breakout year, crowned by the holiday success of “The Dark Knight,” which sold 600,000 Blu-ray copies in one day. They also say that Blu-ray players are selling faster than DVD players did at a comparable time in their emergence.

“What we saw in 2008 was increasing adoption of Blu-ray along with decreasing hardware prices,” said Reed Hastings, the chief executive of Netflix, which has persuaded more than half a million members to pay an extra dollar a month to rent Blu-ray discs. “The window of opportunity for DVD and Blu-ray discs is longer than most people think. But it’s not going to last forever.”

The Consumer Electronics Association predicts that North American consumers will spend $1.3 billion on Blu-ray players in 2009, outpacing the projected $1.2 billion that will be spent on regular DVD players, although Blu-ray players are two to three times more expensive.

Last year “was a launching pad, and 2009 is going to be our growth year,” said Andy Parsons, the chairman of the Blu-ray Disc Association, a consortium of the format’s backers. “We think this year we’ll start to see the format really take off into the mass market.”

But evidence exists that many people either do not know enough about Blu-ray to buy or do not think the more expensive players and discs are worth the extra investment.

Going from the whirring VCRs of yore to a DVD player was a big leap in picture quality and convenience, while the jump from DVD to Blu-ray is subtler, at least for those who do not have the latest and largest high-definition televisions.

Americans are still expected to buy more standard DVD players next year than Blu-ray players, according to the Consumer Electronics Association. People like Erik Swenson, a 37-year-old interior designer in San Francisco, represent one reason. “I’ve heard of Blu-ray, but I don’t know much about it,” he said, shopping last week at a Best Buy for a DVD player. “I’m a little behind with this tech stuff.”

Blu-ray’s backers acknowledge that they have a tougher sell with Blu-ray than they did with DVD, particularly in light of the sour economy.

“Satisfaction with DVD is very high, and sales figures for the DVD, though the market is contracting, are very strong,” said Chris Fawcett, vice president for the home audio and video division of Sony Electronics, which has lowered growth projections for Blu-ray to account for the downturn in consumer spending.

But Mr. Fawcett also said that technology companies, electronics makers, movie studios and retailers have made a significant investment in developing and promoting the format and are largely united in their determination to see it succeed.

That commitment has been on display recently. In November, a group of studios and electronics manufacturers began a $25 million barrage of television commercials, using the theme “Tru Blu” and promoting Blu-ray as “the best way to watch movies at home. Ever.”

On Black Friday, the crucial shopping day after Thanksgiving, electronics manufacturers coordinated with retailers to heavily discount Blu-ray players. As a result, sales surged.

The continued push for Blu-ray will be a central theme at the Consumer Electronics Show, as manufacturers introduce new players and continue to cut prices on older models. Analysts say they expect companies to announce more support for a feature called BD Live (as in Blu-ray disc live), which lets people download additional material from the Internet and interact with friends in text chats that appear on the television while playing a movie.

Consumers must buy adapters to bring most Blu-ray players online, though devices to be unveiled at the show may have Internet access built in.

Integrating the Internet may be a matter of survival for Blu-ray, because the Internet is shaping up to be its biggest rival. More services are popping up that let people download high-definition movies and shows directly to their televisions and home computers.

There are 1,092 discs available in Blu-ray format, mostly new movies like “The Dark Knight” and “Wall-E.” Apple’s iTunes Store introduced high-definition movies a year ago and already has 600 titles available to rent or download. A similar Internet-connected box, Vudu, can access about 1,400 high-definition films.

“When Vudu popped up and had more high-definition movies than Blu-ray, it was a warning sign,” said Rob Enderle, president of the Enderle Group, which advises technology companies like Microsoft and Toshiba. “I think Blu-ray can sustain itself as a transition technology, but, at the end of the day, I don’t think it will ever replace the DVD.”

Still, for some consumers, nothing beats the crisp, clear picture of a Blu-ray disc. “It’s a huge difference,” said Gary Tsang, 31, a computer network engineer in San Francisco who bought a $299 Blu-ray player in October and was among the shoppers who rushed out to buy “The Dark Knight” last month.

Mr. Tsang added that Blu-ray made a real difference only when viewed on a good high-definition television, like the one his family bought in February for $2,700. “We’re not bleeding edge, but we’re cutting edge.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/05/te...ref=technology

Lee Stewart · 01-05-2009, 05:18 AM

The year 2000 was the "break though year" for DVD:

http://www.dvdinformation.com/News/p...008yearEnd.htm

That is akin to the year 2009. And 2001 was even better.

I strongly doubt that BD will reach the same accomplishments in 2009 and 2010.

Selling players is not enough - you have to sell movies/discs also. The PS3 continues to skew the numbers yet it isn't helping in the sale of BD's.

bmore · 01-05-2009, 05:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

The year 2000 was the "break though year" for DVD:

http://www.dvdinformation.com/News/p...008yearEnd.htm

That is akin to the year 2009. And 2001 was even better.

I strongly doubt that BD will reach the same accomplishments in 2009 and 2010.
Selling players is not enough - you have to sell movies/discs also. The PS3 continues to skew the numbers yet it isn't helping in the sale of BD's.

So are we going to have another full year of this type of incessant complaining/doom and gloom/skepticism along with your proven "top notch analysis", or are you actually going to start enjoying new HDM again? Your shtick was getting old last year...in 2009 it is just roadkill that has been smeared into the road 10,000 times.

The time for milking the same 400 HD DVDs as being "new" HDM (because YOU haven't seen it) has pretty much expired by now, right? I mean...you can call them "new" if you want too....but whatever you really wanted you would have had by now...hell, you would have had it months ago. I have seen the 400 available HD DVD titles - there is no way you can still be enthused about what remaining titles you don't already have. And you yourself have commented about the lackluster Comcast HD lineup. Yet here you sit...in the same spot as last year. Have a great 2009.

jadedeath · 01-05-2009, 07:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

I strongly doubt that BD will reach the same accomplishments in 2009 and 2010.

What makes you say that? Is it the 300%+ increase from last year to this year?

Or maybe it's the fact that Blu-Ray players ARE selling, Black Friday, Christmas etc.

Quote:

Selling players is not enough - you have to sell movies/discs also. The PS3 continues to skew the numbers yet it isn't helping in the sale of BD's.

What are the numbers for disk sales last year to this year? I'll take percentages or hard numbers either way.

Oh wait, forgot who I was asking again, a simple question to anyone else is a simple question, you'll bring up some sort of 'gut feeling about doom and gloom about Blu-Ray' or something, maybe you feel a disturbance in the force?

Either way I don't expect you to answer the question.

Logan

HD Goofnut · 01-05-2009, 08:07 AM

All this worry about Lee? I think you guys should start your on anti-Lee forum, but be sure to use a small server because you won't get but maybe 5 members.

01-05-2009, 08:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HD Goofnut

All this worry about Lee? I think you guys should start your on anti-Lee forum, but be sure to use a small server because you won't get but maybe 5 members.

I think his HDD groupies are following him here, whenever Lee's on "forced standby" at HDD. Stalkers -> putting the douche in HighDefDouches....

Lee Stewart · 01-05-2009, 08:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jadedeath

What makes you say that? Is it the 300%+ increase from last year to this year?

That's 2008.

Quote:

Or maybe it's the fact that Blu-Ray players ARE selling, Black Friday, Christmas etc.

They are selling players - what about BD's themselves? In comparison to the population of players?

Quote:

What are the numbers for disk sales last year to this year? I'll take percentages or hard numbers either way.

BD did nothing in 2007 - $170M. Not too difficult to beat that.

Quote:

Oh wait, forgot who I was asking again, a simple question to anyone else is a simple question, you'll bring up some sort of 'gut feeling about doom and gloom about Blu-Ray' or something, maybe you feel a disturbance in the force?

The only "doom and gloom" is going to be BD's inability to unseat DVD.

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Either way I don't expect you to answer the question.

Logan

DONE!

Lee Stewart · 01-05-2009, 08:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nikopol

I think his HDD groupies are following him here, whenever Lee's on "forced standby" at HDD. Stalkers -> putting the douche in HighDefDouches....

4 more days - that will be over.

jadedeath · 01-05-2009, 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

That's 2008.

So how does that change the percentages?

Quote:

They are selling players - what about BD's themselves? In comparison to the population of players?

Check the numbers, I'm sure you have them.

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BD did nothing in 2007 - $170M. Not too difficult to beat that.

When they were up against a competitor, now that they're alone and don't have the competition fireselling players, we'll see the true Blu-Ray come out and play.

Quote:

The only "doom and gloom" is going to be BD's inability to unseat DVD.

When did that become a target for year 4 of Blu-Ray? It seems to me that the only folks that are overly concerned with Blu-Ray 'unseating' DVD are the folks who have a beef against the format {for one reason or another}

Quote:

DONE!

Scary.

Logan

Lee Stewart · 01-05-2009, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jadedeath

So how does that change the percentages?

It doesn't. Think they will be able to maintian that % of growth for 2009?

Quote:

Check the numbers, I'm sure you have them.

I already have - that is why I asked the question.

Quote:

When they were up against a competitor, now that they're alone and don't have the competition fireselling players, we'll see the true Blu-Ray come out and play.

Ah - OK. So $129 priced BD players on BF - that was a good deal and not a fire sale?

Quote:

When did that become a target for year 4 of Blu-Ray? It seems to me that the only folks that are overly concerned with Blu-Ray 'unseating' DVD are the folks who have a beef against the format {for one reason or another}

No - it's all those rabid BD Fanboys who believe that lightening is going to strike twice in the same place.

crazyal · 01-05-2009, 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jadedeath

When did that become a target for year 4 of Blu-Ray? It seems to me that the only folks that are overly concerned with Blu-Ray 'unseating' DVD are the folks who have a beef against the format {for one reason or another}

Scary.

Logan

I think it was the BDA who said DVD would be gone after three years.

jadedeath · 01-05-2009, 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crazyal

I think it was the BDA who said DVD would be gone after three years.

I think Ken Graffeo takes the cake for unrealistic sales quota quotes.

Logan

Cygnus · 01-05-2009, 02:24 PM

I doubt if BD movie sales will ever become as big as DVD because most people would rather rent movies than buy.

PFC5 · 01-05-2009, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crazyal

I think it was the BDA who said DVD would be gone after three years.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jadedeath

I think Ken Graffeo takes the cake for unrealistic sales quota quotes.

Logan

And what does what Ken Graffeo stating something about HD DVD over a year ago have to do with your question correctly being answered that it was the BDA that originally stated BD would replace SD DVD within 3 years back then?

Just an FYI, HD DVD is long gone as an active format, so lets concentrate on the topic at hand.

Even most BD fans realize it would be very hard for BD to replace SD DVD, and they are not even trying at least from the studio perspective since the rate of releasing movies on BD is about 1/4 what the release rate was with SD DVD during the same time frame. I think the studios realize BD is a supplement to SD DVD rather than an all out replacement for the masses. If they didn't, they would have to assume BD would be around for 40+ years at the current release rate.

85mics · 01-05-2009, 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PFC5

And what does what Ken Graffeo stating something about HD DVD over a year ago have to do with your question correctly being answered that it was the BDA that originally stated BD would replace SD DVD within 3 years back then?

Just an FYI, HD DVD is long gone as an active format, so lets concentrate on the topic at hand.

Even most BD fans realize it would be very hard for BD to replace SD DVD, and they are not even trying at least from the studio perspective since the rate of releasing movies on BD is about 1/4 what the release rate was with SD DVD during the same time frame. I think the studios realize BD is a supplement to SD DVD rather than an all out replacement for the masses. If they didn't, they would have to assume BD would be around for 40+ years at the current release rate.

Indeed. Even I have relunctantly accepted that HD DVD is no longer active. (Only took about a year, guys!!) Hehe...Of course, in that timespan, I've received new options for HD movies, namely Netflix Instant Streaming, which IS an active format.

If BD thinks they've nothing to worry about and that the future is all clear and blu, they're in for a rude awakening. For example, one of my favorite movies of all time, Dumb and Dumber, a movie I've double-dipped on DVD, was released on BD last month. I know what you're thinking..."boo-hoo Warner didn't release an HD DVD I'll never get to enjoy D&D in HD." Well, guess what recently popped up in HD on Netflix? Yup. How much do I have to pay for the priviledge of watching this movie over and over anytime I want (and believe me, I've seen it many many times)? Zip. Zero. Zilch. Nothing more than I've been paying monthly for the past 4 or 5 years. Plus they got some exclusives that aren't available on any optical discs, like Stand and Deliver, Ace Ventura, and more. The future is red again...Netflix red!

01-05-2009, 08:07 AM	#5
HD Goofnut Official HDF BD Reviewer Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Mississippi, U.S.A. Your resident Dune, Star Wars, and war film expert Posts: 9,556	All this worry about Lee? I think you guys should start your on anti-Lee forum, but be sure to use a small server because you won't get but maybe 5 members. __________________ BenQ MP512ST, Panasonic TC-L55ET5 55" 360Hz LED/3D, Sharp LC-46SB57UN 46" 120 Hz LCD, Sanyo DP46848 46" 60Hz LCD, HP 21.5" 60Hz LCD Onkyo TX-NR709 7.1/Onkyo SKS-HT540 ASUS BD Drive, LG BH200, Sony Optiarc Blu-ray Burner, Sony BDP-590, Vizio VBR220 My Motion Picture Collection Latest BD Review: *Jack Reacher*

01-05-2009, 02:24 PM	#13
Cygnus The Bringer of Balance Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 11,350	I doubt if BD movie sales will ever become as big as DVD because most people would rather rent movies than buy. __________________ Panasonic P55 ST30 Kenwood VR-616 Comcast DCT6412 III XBox 360 GamerTag Sec0nd2N0n3

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01-05-2009, 05:18 AM	#2
Lee Stewart Muscle Cars Forever! Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Albuquerque, NM Posts: 35,092	The year 2000 was the "break though year" for DVD: http://www.dvdinformation.com/News/p...008yearEnd.htm That is akin to the year 2009. And 2001 was even better. I strongly doubt that BD will reach the same accomplishments in 2009 and 2010. Selling players is not enough - you have to sell movies/discs also. The PS3 continues to skew the numbers yet it isn't helping in the sale of BD's.