Warner Home Video Prez: “We think this is a do-or-die time for Blu-ray”

vikingfan · 11-21-2008, 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PFC5

And you must have been a member of another site before coming here also. What is the point?

The point is Mike doesn't post here at ALL. Then the day he gets banned from another site, he's here starting a simialar thread to another already started, but "sensationalising" the part that fits his redboy blu-hating agenda.

He's trolling, that's what he does, that's all he does.

And in the 1.5 yrs mikes had to "run up" his post count to 9 at HDF, he's posted over 1200 at HDD in 2.5.

What's been going on here to make him post so little? Was someone mean to him? Sponsors annoy him? Mods too tough?

Or maybe, just maybe, when it quacks like a duck...it IS a duck.

crazyal · 11-21-2008, 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ack_bak

Read the whole article. It is enlightening. According to Nielsen DVD sales are off 9%. That is approx $1.4 billion. I can see why the studios are worried as there is no way Blu-Ray and downloads are going to make up that loss unless they have a massive Q4.

Do or die seems more like positioning yet again from the studios. Especially when you read Universal's comments in the article which are definitely not doom and gloom.

I'm sure there's more profit in BD than DVD (don't know how much though). But studios could be looking at the fact that DVD sales are down by about the same amount as BD sales are now. they could be worried that what we are seeing is a shift of buyers from one format to the other. I'm sure they were hoping that BD would draw in new buyers. That's just a guess but as prices drop and profit margines equal DVD then what would be the point of having BD?

IMO I don't see BD going anywhere, at worse we will see what we are seeing now, new releases and a few select older titles. What will happen is if sales are strong on BD studios would be more willing to open up the vault and release the movies that people like myself and boby would like to see.

Lee Stewart · 11-21-2008, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crazyal

I'm sure there's more profit in BD than DVD (don't know how much though). But studios could be looking at the fact that DVD sales are down by about the same amount as BD sales are now. they could be worried that what we are seeing is a shift of buyers from one format to the other. I'm sure they were hoping that BD would draw in new buyers. That's just a guess but as prices drop and profit margines equal DVD then what would be the point of having BD?

But that isn't happening. BD is not making up the short fall.

If the numbers come out for 2008 as they stand/predicted - then DVD will have lost $1.4B in sales while BD sold $750M. That is a $650M short fall.

Quote:

IMO I don't see BD going anywhere, at worse we will see what we are seeing now, new releases and a few select older titles. What will happen is if sales are strong on BD studios would be more willing to open up the vault and release the movies that people like myself and boby would like to see.

Is that what you really want out of BD? New releases and a handfull of catalog titles?

**PFC5** · 11-21-2008, 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crazyal

I'm sure there's more profit in BD than DVD (don't know how much though). But studios could be looking at the fact that DVD sales are down by about the same amount as BD sales are now. they could be worried that what we are seeing is a shift of buyers from one format to the other. I'm sure they were hoping that BD would draw in new buyers. That's just a guess but as prices drop and profit margines equal DVD then what would be the point of having BD?

IMO I don't see BD going anywhere, at worse we will see what we are seeing now, new releases and a few select older titles. What will happen is if sales are strong on BD studios would be more willing to open up the vault and release the movies that people like myself and boby would like to see.

Well what I think we are seeing is that despite BD player prices getting to the mass market levels we have two things keeping BD movie sales from also getting to mass market levels. The first is the economy, and the second is the BD movie prices are too high and even the CE companies are now saying despite much lower BD player prices, the players are not selling as well as they should because the BD movie prices are holding consumers back. The ball is in the Studios' court now as I said over a month ago.

I think another thing at play now is that with BD player prices now on the consumer's radar, but the BD movie costs keeping them out, many are just not buying the SD DVD versions now because they hope with BD player prices now reasonable for them they are just waiting for BD movie prices to become reasonable to buy the BD version of the movie instead.

This is part of any format transition, but is exasperated by the economy. The problem is that it seems the studios want to lay the whole problem on the economy and not on the overpriced BD movie costs as the last remaining stumbling block for the BD format. Greed is good for businesses, but not when they kill the future revenue source because of it.

ack_bak · 11-21-2008, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

But that isn't happening. BD is not making up the short fall.

If the numbers come out for 2008 as they stand/predicted - then DVD will have lost $1.4B in sales while BD sold $750M. That is a $650M short fall.

That was my point. You can see why the studios are worried. Now we don't know how much downloads will contribute to that difference, but I would be shocked if it is even close to $650 to even break even.

Now what we don't know is what will happen in the rest of Q4 and into January. There could be a lot of sales between now and then, or sales could be flat. Too early to tell. I can tell you that we have been waiting for deals and have only done about 10% of our holiday shopping in 2008. I will be dropping some serious coin over the next month.

crazyal · 11-21-2008, 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PFC5

A lot of people got burned by HD DVD. So we should stifle anyone that got burnt from stating they wonder if they will get burnt again by BD now that studios are expressing concerns about BD not catching on like they projected?

I have owned BOTH formats since their launch year in 2006 and I am concerned by these statements also.

I know of nobody who can say they got burned by HD DVD or Toshiba other than those who turned it into a personal fight. People like the Blu-Bots who say things like that to rub it in and anti Blu people who felt Toshiba owed them and should have run the company into the ground trying to keep the format going.

As an EA you take the risk. I would like either group to show me where Toshiba made a written promise to keep the format going or even twisted anyone's hand into buying a player. The only thing that sucks is that BD doesn't have HD DVD to keep it honest. Here it is a year later and I have yet to hear of a BF sale with a sub $100 BD player with an equal brand name to Toshiba.

Personally I have won, not lost, with HD DVD. I own about 4 times the number of titles I would normally have. It's starting to equal my DVD collection. We would never have seen HDM for under $5 if Toshiba hadn't pulled the plug.

MikeRox · 11-21-2008, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianh

broadband is becoming as common as HD now.

Maybe so, (more common in the UK infact) however it takes about 5 hours to download an inferior quality HD movie (lower resolution and lower audio quality to Blu-ray) on my "up to 8meg" connection. I'm only allowed to download 4-5 of them a month though due to my fair usage cap (which is actually generous for a UK ISP at 30gb per month, may are under 10gb and some as low as 2gb). With things like that, I don't see downloads becoming any more than a niche for HD movies anytime soon.

Standard movies are better, can get one of them in an hour or 2 but they look awful on a HDTV. There's also the lack of ownership in most movie downloads.

Downloads or not though, I don't think anybody can deny companies dropping Blu-ray is bad news for pretty much everyone interested in home video.

sigill · 11-21-2008, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Louigi222

Excellent point. They "talk the talk about Blu-ray," but they're not "walking the walk."
As long as they keep Blu titles at current price levels, they are content to remain on the sidelines as far as Blu growth is concerned while they explore other viable options, IMO.

I agree. They are saying that BD prices need to reman high until enough people are buying them which will then inturn allow them to drop prices. That is just a vicous circle and will achieve nothing. Its up to the studios to adjust the prices to stimulate consumer interest.

**PFC5** · 11-21-2008, 12:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crazyal

I know of nobody who can say they got burned by HD DVD or Toshiba other than those who turned it into a personal fight. People like the Blu-Bots who say things like that to rub it in and anti Blu people who felt Toshiba owed them and should have run the company into the ground trying to keep the format going.

As an EA you take the risk. I would like either group to show me where Toshiba made a written promise to keep the format going or even twisted anyone's hand into buying a player. The only thing that sucks is that BD doesn't have HD DVD to keep it honest. Here it is a year later and I have yet to hear of a BF sale with a sub $100 BD player with an equal brand name to Toshiba.

Personally I have won, not lost, with HD DVD. I own about 4 times the number of titles I would normally have. It's starting to equal my DVD collection. We would never have seen HDM for under $5 if Toshiba hadn't pulled the plug.

Anyone who only paid $99.00 for a HD DVD player did not get burnt IMO. They got a player that is arguably better than any SD DVD player for that price and got to buy very cheap HD movies for it along with excellent SD DVD playback.

People who paid $300-500.00 for a HD DVD player got burnt though I think but that is the price to pay for being an Early Adopter like you said. Other than Toshiba making some very dumb decisions, I do not blame Toshiba though. It is what it is.

ack_bak · 11-21-2008, 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sigill

I agree. They are saying that BD prices need to reman high until enough people are buying them which will then inturn allow them to drop prices. That is just a vicous circle and will achieve nothing. Its up to the studios to adjust the prices to stimulate consumer interest.

And it is not just BD. I think the cable and sat providers could be in for a rude awakening in upcoming months as contracts expire and people look to cut back costs. Same with downloads. $5.99-6.99 HD VOD is greedy.

**PFC5** · 11-21-2008, 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sigill

I agree. They are saying that BD prices need to reman high until enough people are buying them which will then inturn allow them to drop prices. That is just a vicous circle and will achieve nothing. Its up to the studios to adjust the prices to stimulate consumer interest.

DING DING DING!

We have a winner. The problem is that the studios seem to think EVERYONE ELSE but THEM needs to take the risks, just because they own the content.

It is time for the studios to take some risk for the format and the prise will be another large revenue stream for many years if they do. If they don't, that will just keep people on the fence, and SD DVD movie sales will continue to drop from people waiting for BD to take off, but that won't happen at current BD movie prices. Heck even the BD player mfg are now saying that BD movie prices are limiting these low priced BD players from selling as well as they should.

sigill · 11-21-2008, 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bruceames

Yeah, but this thread is based on the Utimatum, which is worth its own thread. It's surprising that a WB exec could feel that Blu-ray future is in doubt.

I must admit i think this was a strange comment from the WB exec. Its just like the guy from samsung who said blu-ray only has 5 years left. I can't understand why BD studios and manufacturers would want to say these things. I'm surprised WB are so concerned about this supposedly being a do or die time for blu-ray. I thought next year was going to be the most important time.

Lee Stewart · 11-21-2008, 12:51 PM

Does anyone believe that the studios will only cut the price of BD software and leave DVD software pricing where it is?

DVD is in 90% of TV households. BD is in less than 10%.

Hollywood thinks short term. So which will respond better for them when a price reduction is contemplated/instituted?

According to Sony - the price of a DVD is the same as it was in 2004. There have been no price increases - and there have been no price decreases either.

When people start to feel that $5 or $10 could be important . . .

crazyal · 11-21-2008, 12:51 PM

BD also has the problem of DVD's will play just fine in the players. Trying to convince a number of people that BD offers enough of a value over DVD on every title is going to be a hard sell. So most will just buy the few titles that they think are worth the to trade off of disadvantages like being able to play it on any DVD player (cars, every room, etc.) for the extra PQ and AQ.

ack_bak · 11-21-2008, 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

Does anyone believe that the studios will only cut the price of BD software and leave DVD software pricing where it is?

DVD is in 90% of TV households. BD is in less than 10%.

Hollywood thinks short term. So which will respond better for them when a price reduction is contemplated/instituted?

According to Sony - the price of a DVD is the same as it was in 2004. There have been no price increases - and there have been no price decreases either.

When people start to feel that $5 or $10 could be important . . .

On new releases they could definitely cut prices, but that is a double edged sword if they do not cut prices on Blu-Ray, downloads, and VOD. The studios want people to move away from DVD. Not cling to it by further price reductions.

11-21-2008, 12:51 PM	#44
crazyal Smarter than the ave bear Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 3,312	BD also has the problem of DVD's will play just fine in the players. Trying to convince a number of people that BD offers enough of a value over DVD on every title is going to be a hard sell. So most will just buy the few titles that they think are worth the to trade off of disadvantages like being able to play it on any DVD player (cars, every room, etc.) for the extra PQ and AQ. __________________ Please don't feed the Unicorns

Similar Threads to Warner Home Video Prez: “We think this is a do-or-die time for Blu-ray”
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Time Warner earnings flat in Q3	Lee Stewart	High Definition News & Informative Articles	0	11-05-2008 03:25 PM
Warner fights Chinese piracy with low-cost online rentals	Lee Stewart	High Definition News & Informative Articles	0	11-04-2008 02:50 PM
Half Empty or half full? Why 768x1024 is HD	S0LE_SURVIV0R	Flat-Panel TVs	180	11-23-2007 08:19 PM
time warner of New York and NJ new HD channel	mckenna797	Cable Providers	0	09-29-2007 05:00 PM
The Difference Between HDTV, EDTV, and SDTV	zedd	Flat-Panel TVs	2	02-14-2006 11:15 PM

11-21-2008, 12:51 PM	#43
Lee Stewart Behold - the future! Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Albuquerque, NM Age: 58 Posts: 25,188	Does anyone believe that the studios will only cut the price of BD software and leave DVD software pricing where it is? DVD is in 90% of TV households. BD is in less than 10%. Hollywood thinks short term. So which will respond better for them when a price reduction is contemplated/instituted? According to Sony - the price of a DVD is the same as it was in 2004. There have been no price increases - and there have been no price decreases either. When people start to feel that $5 or $10 could be important . . .