Warner Home Video Prez: “We think this is a do-or-die time for Blu-ray”

vikingfan · 11-22-2008, 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PFC5

Yeah, I guess Warner has made far fetched conclusions also huh?

Apparently you do not remember that Warner said this as part of the reason they made a choice on 1/4/08.

Feel free to show a quote where WB says BD has to offset a sales decline in DVD due to its exsistence. For every BD sold, WB makes more than it would have on the equivalent DVD sale, and may also generate sales from people who would not have bought it on DVD but will on BD because its in HD. So it would lead to equal or greater sales of a title than just dvd alone.

If you and Bruce believe BD, by just being in the marketplace, is dissuading consumers from buying titles on DVD. You'll have no problem providing a link.

**PFC5** · 11-22-2008, 09:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vikingfan

Feel free to show a quote where WB says BD has to offset a sales decline in DVD due to its exsistence. For every BD sold, WB makes more than it would have on the equivalent DVD sale, and may also generate sales from people who would not have bought it on DVD but will on BD because its in HD. So it would lead to equal or greater sales of a title than just dvd alone.

If you and Bruce believe BD, by just being in the marketplace, is dissuading consumers from buying titles on DVD. You'll have no problem providing a link.

No problem at all. Here you go:

http://www.contentagenda.com/blog/15...190019619.html

And the relevant part we are talking about:

Quote:

"Not only did neither [high-def DVD] format really take off as expected in fourth quarter, but standard-def was softer than expected given the release slate," Sanders said Friday, shortly after the studio announced that it will drop is support of the HD DVD format and release its high-def titles exclusively on Blu-ray starting in June. "We’re seeing research now that shows that consumers are starting to delay purchases because of the format war, not just on high-def but standard-def purchases as well. That’s very alarming.”

As part of its ongoing tracking research, Warner has been asking consumers for months whether the format war has had any effect on the regular DVD purchase habits.

"They're waiting for something to happen," Sanders said. "They're waiting for the whole situation to become clear so they know what to buy. If you look at the historical conversion ratios of box office into DVD sales, several titles this fourth quarter underperformed where they should have been."

So Warner DID say that the HD format war WAS hurting SD DVD along with both HD formats. Now we are seeing that SD DVD sales are dropping a lot more, so it is easy to see that Warner could be looking at BD hurting SD DVD while not performing as well as was hoped.

I am not saying Warner will drop BD or anything, as they have no where else to go other than back to the already mature and declining SD DVD format. What I am saying is that Warner may be thinking that BD alone now may be hurting SD DVD (bread and butter format right now) while people wait for BD to be more affordable. I think BD player prices are fine now and the problem is the studios with the slow (compared to SD DVD) movie release schedule and also the high BD movie prices compared to SD DVDs.

bmore · 11-22-2008, 09:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianh

From what I heard, WB was never really into the deal with Sony to begin with.

So it's always been a marriage of convenience. This quote shocked me simply because it was made public.

If TDK sales aren't as impressive as WB is projecting - they might be good considering all the hardware sales- then I expect WB to seriously have 2nd and 3rd thoughts.

The deal involved WB believeing that Sony would get their act together and that blu-ray would "Take off" so to speak.
Anybody with clear eyes can see that hasn't happened.

Hell, WB was having 2nd thoughts around the time Toshiba gave up.
So it's no surprise they are thinking this. It is a surprise they're SAYING it out loud.

It out to give the blu companies significant pause. Maybe it's a dire warning to them to REALLY get their act together i.e. lower prices, lower production costs, have Sony subsidize more etc.

Steve Jobs already said dealing with blu is a pain.

It all adds up.

You heard? You heard what? And from whom? Please pass what you are smoking. Please do share what you heard and from where you heard it. I am sure it will be good for some laughs.

And Steve Jobs was talking about licensing.

Sanders is not.

Two separate things. Yet you keep trying to stitch one-off comments together into some grand masterplan.

I will 100% guarantee you that WB does not drop bluray in Jan. 2009. Because if so we are all F'ed - including the studios.

The fact that you place all the weight on Sony to "make things happen" shows your incredible lack of knowledge of the bluray format. Do you know how important Disney is? Panasonic? The fact that you continually place everything square on Sony is quite telling.

"It all adds up".

The only thing that adds up to me is your gross misunderstanding of how things work.

vikingfan · 11-22-2008, 09:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PFC5

No problem at all. Here you go:

http://www.contentagenda.com/blog/15...190019619.html

And the relevant part we are talking about:

So Warner DID say that the HD format war WAS hurting SD DVD along with both HD formats. Now we are seeing that SD DVD sales are dropping a lot more, so it is easy to see that Warner could be looking at BD hurting SD DVD while not performing as well as was hoped.

That quote is referencing sales during the format war, your trying to make it fit too defend bruces position, is as farfetched as his original statement. During the format war people may have held off on purchasing a movie on dvd because they wanted an HD version, but were unsure of which format was going to succeed. To think that now that there is only one HD format, that it would be affecting dvd sales to an even greater degree is a huge stretch.

ack_bak · 11-22-2008, 09:52 PM

So to those of you in this thread that think Warner will drop Blu-Ray sometime early next year what do you see Warner doing?

Again, DVD sales are dropping. Potentially by as much as $1-2 billion dollars this year and most likely be even more in the upcoming years.

Downloads? The thing is that I have not seen a single studio raving about downloads replacing optical media in the next year or two, and download sales appear to be even worse than Blu-Ray. Many people do not have the bandwidth and almost every major ISP has or is implementing bandwidth caps. Movie downloads are not brand new. They have been out as long or longer than Blu-Ray.

VOD? VOD is growing but not drastically. VOD/PPV has been around much longer than Blu-Ray. It certainly does not seem to be on track to replace DVD as the leading format.

So what else is there? And if you say it will be some brand new technology, you have to remember that any new technology will take a minimum of 3-5 years to catch on. I personally don't think the studios have time. Per the article disc sales (optical media) account for as much as 70% of the revenue generated by most movies. Without that revenue the studios would most likely be forced to cut way back on the number of theatrical releases and would have to slash their budgets. This is why Warner is so concerned. This is why Warner and the other studios want and need Blu-Ray to succeed. I am not sure why people here cannot seem to grasp this. Very few movies make a profit via the box office. Most do not become profitable until release on home video. IMHO Warner is stuck no matter how poor Blu-Ray and DVD perform this holiday season. There is nowhere else to go.

**PFC5** · 11-22-2008, 09:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vikingfan

That quote is referencing sales during the format war, your trying to make it fit too defend bruces position, is as farfetched as his original statement. During the format war people may have held off on purchasing a movie on dvd because they wanted an HD version, but were unsure of which format was going to succeed. To think that now that there is only one HD format, that it would be affecting dvd sales to an even greater degree is a huge stretch.

How can you NOT think that people on the fence about buying BD now will not be buying SD DVDs now why they wait?

Have you been buying a lot of movies during a format transition? I have and I can tell you I went to almost exclusively renting VHS titles waiting to buy into SD DVD when I felt the time was right, and I did the same thing leading up to HDM also.

I have a bro-inlaw who use to buys 2-3 movies per week on SD DVD, and although he thinks he will wait another year to buy into BD he has gone to just renting. This is not hardly ANY stretch IMO, to think people who think BD may replace SD DVD to stop buying many SD DVD titles leading up to the change over to BD.

AFAIAC, this is a natural part of ANY format change over. Sorry if that isn't what YOU think is happening, but i bet a lot of other BD fans like my self are thinking this is likely happening. We just do not know what the number of people/sales involved are.

Louigi222 · 11-22-2008, 09:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PFC5

Personally I think BD is coming along great from a hardware perspective, and I never thought BD players would be this cheap so I tip my hat to the CE companies doing what is necessary for BD to be a success. I just wish the studios would NOW follow suit.

Flashback to this same time last year and your sentiment is the exact same wonderful fuzzy feeling I was having about the HD DVD format as I stood in line waiting for my $98 HD A2.
I really do have a sense of deja vu.
After the events of last year, I don't think anything would surprise me anymore.

**PFC5** · 11-22-2008, 09:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ack_bak

So to those of you in this thread that think Warner will drop Blu-Ray sometime early next year what do you see Warner doing?

Again, DVD sales are dropping. Potentially by as much as $1-2 billion dollars this year and most likely be even more in the upcoming years.

Downloads? The thing is that I have not seen a single studio raving about downloads replacing optical media in the next year or two, and download sales appear to be even worse than Blu-Ray. Many people do not have the bandwidth and almost every major ISP has or is implementing bandwidth caps. Movie downloads are not brand new. They have been out as long or longer than Blu-Ray.

VOD? VOD is growing but not drastically. VOD/PPV has been around much longer than Blu-Ray. It certainly does not seem to be on track to replace DVD as the leading format.

So what else is there? And if you say it will be some brand new technology, you have to remember that any new technology will take a minimum of 3-5 years to catch on. I personally don't think the studios have time. Per the article disc sales (optical media) account for as much as 70% of the revenue generated by most movies. Without that revenue the studios would most likely be forced to cut way back on the number of theatrical releases and would have to slash their budgets. This is why Warner is so concerned. This is why Warner and the other studios want and need Blu-Ray to succeed. I am not sure why people here cannot seem to grasp this. Very few movies make a profit via the box office. Most do not become profitable until release on home video. IMHO Warner is stuck no matter how poor Blu-Ray and DVD perform this holiday season. There is nowhere else to go.

Good post and I agree with this. I said this before that i don't think Warner could go anywhere else anytime soon also, but just saying Warner seems unhappy with the current situation has some defending BD and saying BD is fine. Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain.

**PFC5** · 11-22-2008, 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Louigi222

Flashback to this same time last year and your sentiment is the exact same wonderful fuzzy feeling I was having about the HD DVD format as I stood in line waiting for my $98 HD A2.
I really do have a sense of deja vu.
After the events of last year, I don't think anything would surprise me anymore.

Yeah, I am still a little gun shy, but Warner has no where else to go. Sure they can drop BD and that MIGHT eventually kill it since they are the largest studio AND much of the public would lose confidence in the BD format if they did, but until it actually died it would STILL hurt SD DVD sales, and no one knows how much of the drop is economy based, and how much is fence sitters waiting to buy into BD but not buying much on SD DVD while they wait.

Either way at this point follywood will be hurting for revenue for a while IMO. They were getting too fat anyway IMO so this will possible be a good thing in the end, with more realistic movie budgets, and better consumer costs EVENTUALLY.

IO am hoping that this was said by Warner as a wakeup call to the other studios to lower prices some like Warner has done for the sake of the format and their future revenue streams.

Bravestime · 11-22-2008, 10:02 PM

WB's statement may also have been a scare tactic aimed at BDA. Maybe they want BDA to drop players to rock bottom prices this holiday season, so the studios won't have to drop their movie prices.

I honestly think that the studios would drop the prices of movies as the last straw to keeping BDA afloat. If that didn't work, then I can see the studios dropping the format

Honestly though, Blu-ray, IMO, is doing rather well considering the economy. Presently, alot of retailers, online and B&M, have felt decreased in sales. My barber in my area even mentioned his business has slowed. We all know the status of the 3 auto makers. Circuit City going bust and Best Buy has even had some drops in sales. Considering all these signs, Blu-ray seems to be holding it's own, and even seems to be still growing, however small it is now. My point here is that the studios are seeing this growth in Blu-ray, although not to their expectations at this point, nevertheless growth.

I think the CEMs are doing their job by reducing the players, especially during these economic times. I also feel the B&M stores are doing a pretty good job by giving BD a dedicated area of their own. This helps promote the new format. Online companies have had some good deals with blu-ray as well, especially Amazon.

Now, the last and biggest missing piece of this puzzle is the studios. They need to drop the movie prices down within a few dollars of the DVD version. I know alot of people have been saying this, and so have I. IMHO, in order for blu-ray to excel, the studios MUST reduce their prices. I think they will in time, but I believe they need to do that now. This is a different situation then DVD, so IMO they can't wait years to do this.

OK, I'll end my opinion.

Oh yeah, if BDA were to belly-up, no problem, there's always a bailout from the government option.

bmore · 11-22-2008, 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Louigi222

Flashback to this same time last year and your sentiment is the exact same wonderful fuzzy feeling I was having about the HD DVD format as I stood in line waiting for my $98 HD A2.
I really do have a sense of deja vu.
After the events of last year, I don't think anything would surprise me anymore.

Except for the extremely huge differences.

2007: HD DVD was losing every week in SW sales, had 1 CE making dedicated players, and had the minority of studios. They chose to lower prices to levels so low they isolated themselves from the rest of the industry. Bluray sold as many SA'a as HD DVD did @~2x the price.

2008: Bluray is the winner of the format war, has been growing all year, will have two 1M selling titles and is offsetting losses from DVD for CE's (see Funai). THE ECONOMY SUCKS!

Will you buy me a new bluray movie if your sense of deja vu turns out to be dead wrong? I will buy you a hard drive if your deja vu turns out to be right. I am 100% confident I will end up with a new BR movie...

Question - do you have a bluray player? Or is the A2 your only venture into HDM? I am curious...

ack_bak · 11-22-2008, 10:15 PM

Warner is most likely making money with Blu-Ray. In this economy it would be crazy to drop any revenue stream that is profitable. Their biggest release of the year has not even come out yet (TDK). A title that was made for Blu-Ray. If it sells similar as Iron Man and Incredible Hulk nearly one in five people who buy TDK on optical disc will buy it on Blu-Ray.

**PFC5** · 11-22-2008, 10:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bravestime

WB's statement may also have been a scare tactic aimed at BDA. Maybe they want BDA to drop players to rock bottom prices this holiday season, so the studios won't have to drop their movie prices.

I honestly think that the studios would drop the prices of movies as the last straw to keeping BDA afloat. If that didn't work, then I can see the studios dropping the format

Honestly though, Blu-ray, IMO, is doing rather well considering the economy. Presently, alot of retailers, online and B&M, have felt decreased in sales. My barber in my area even mentioned his business has slowed. We all know the status of the 3 auto makers. Circuit City going bust and Best Buy has even had some drops in sales. Considering all these signs, Blu-ray seems to be holding it's own, and even seems to be still growing, however small it is now. My point here is that the studios are seeing this growth in Blu-ray, although not to their expectations at this point, nevertheless growth.

I think the CEMs are doing their job by reducing the players, especially during these economic times. I also feel the B&M stores are doing a pretty good job by giving BD a dedicated area of their own. This helps promote the new format. Online companies have had some good deals with blu-ray as well, especially Amazon.

Now, the last and biggest missing piece of this puzzle is the studios. They need to drop the movie prices down within a few dollars of the DVD version. I know alot of people have been saying this, and so have I. IMHO, in order for blu-ray to excel, the studios MUST reduce their prices. I think they will in time, but I believe they need to do that now. This is a different situation then DVD, so IMO they can't wait years to do this.

OK, I'll end my opinion.

Oh yeah, if BDA were to belly-up, no problem, there's always a bailout from the government option.

I could have written this post of yours as I agree 100%.

I know a month or so ago you didn't see the immediate need for studios to drop the BD movie prices, and you now see it, but the problem is I don't think the studios (besides Warner) see it.

I think Warner sees that the CE companies HAVE done there part now, and Warner has slightly dropped some prices but ALL titles need to track at a couple of $$ over the same SD DVD title at this point and THEN I can see BD rebounding more. I think Warner said this for OTHER studios to take heed myself.

Bravestime · 11-22-2008, 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PFC5

I could have written this post of yours as I agree 100%.

I know a month or so ago you didn't see the immediate need for studios to drop the BD movie prices, and you now see it, but the problem is I don't think the studios (besides Warner) see it.

I think Warner sees that the CE companies HAVE done there part now, and Warner has slightly dropped some prices but ALL titles need to track at a couple of $$ over the same SD DVD title at this point and THEN I can see BD rebounding more. I think Warner said this for OTHER studios to take heed myself.

I have been saying the studios should drop the movie prices to within $4 of the DVD version for awhile. I just don't believe they are going to do it anytime soon. I understand the BD movies should be higher, but not as high it presently is.

**PFC5** · 11-22-2008, 10:34 PM

I stand corrected.

But do you know see it is more urgent than a month ago that they NEED to lower the prices to track about $4-5.00 above the SD DVD version in stores NOW?

11-22-2008, 10:02 PM	#145
Bravestime Supporter of HiDef Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Aiken, SC Age: 53 Posts: 4,414	WB's statement may also have been a scare tactic aimed at BDA. Maybe they want BDA to drop players to rock bottom prices this holiday season, so the studios won't have to drop their movie prices. I honestly think that the studios would drop the prices of movies as the last straw to keeping BDA afloat. If that didn't work, then I can see the studios dropping the format Honestly though, Blu-ray, IMO, is doing rather well considering the economy. Presently, alot of retailers, online and B&M, have felt decreased in sales. My barber in my area even mentioned his business has slowed. We all know the status of the 3 auto makers. Circuit City going bust and Best Buy has even had some drops in sales. Considering all these signs, Blu-ray seems to be holding it's own, and even seems to be still growing, however small it is now. My point here is that the studios are seeing this growth in Blu-ray, although not to their expectations at this point, nevertheless growth. I think the CEMs are doing their job by reducing the players, especially during these economic times. I also feel the B&M stores are doing a pretty good job by giving BD a dedicated area of their own. This helps promote the new format. Online companies have had some good deals with blu-ray as well, especially Amazon. Now, the last and biggest missing piece of this puzzle is the studios. They need to drop the movie prices down within a few dollars of the DVD version. I know alot of people have been saying this, and so have I. IMHO, in order for blu-ray to excel, the studios MUST reduce their prices. I think they will in time, but I believe they need to do that now. This is a different situation then DVD, so IMO they can't wait years to do this. OK, I'll end my opinion. Oh yeah, if BDA were to belly-up, no problem, there's always a bailout from the government option. __________________ Life is Short, Watch a Movie

11-22-2008, 10:34 PM	#150
PFC5 Super Moderator Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 28,057	I stand corrected. But do you know see it is more urgent than a month ago that they NEED to lower the prices to track about $4-5.00 above the SD DVD version in stores NOW? __________________ Denon AVR-887 Klipsch RP-5 Pwred Towers (mains) (525 watts peak each 12"Subs) All Klipsch RC-25(ctr),(2)SS1(surr),(2)SS1(rearSurr) Toshiba (2)HD-A20,PS3,BD35 For SACD/DVD-A Samsung HD-841 Panny 50pz80u plasma SETTINGS RCA HD50LPW162 50"DLP w/HD2+ SA 3250HD 47" LCD+Yamaha5790+HD-A1(bedroom) Harmony 680 + (2) 670s (amazing remote/support) Game room with Onkyo receiver & B&W Speakers The_Cable_Game Take the high ground and be happier

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11-22-2008, 09:52 PM	#140
ack_bak Hidef Junkie Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 2,416	So to those of you in this thread that think Warner will drop Blu-Ray sometime early next year what do you see Warner doing? Again, DVD sales are dropping. Potentially by as much as $1-2 billion dollars this year and most likely be even more in the upcoming years. Downloads? The thing is that I have not seen a single studio raving about downloads replacing optical media in the next year or two, and download sales appear to be even worse than Blu-Ray. Many people do not have the bandwidth and almost every major ISP has or is implementing bandwidth caps. Movie downloads are not brand new. They have been out as long or longer than Blu-Ray. VOD? VOD is growing but not drastically. VOD/PPV has been around much longer than Blu-Ray. It certainly does not seem to be on track to replace DVD as the leading format. So what else is there? And if you say it will be some brand new technology, you have to remember that any new technology will take a minimum of 3-5 years to catch on. I personally don't think the studios have time. Per the article disc sales (optical media) account for as much as 70% of the revenue generated by most movies. Without that revenue the studios would most likely be forced to cut way back on the number of theatrical releases and would have to slash their budgets. This is why Warner is so concerned. This is why Warner and the other studios want and need Blu-Ray to succeed. I am not sure why people here cannot seem to grasp this. Very few movies make a profit via the box office. Most do not become profitable until release on home video. IMHO Warner is stuck no matter how poor Blu-Ray and DVD perform this holiday season. There is nowhere else to go.

11-22-2008, 10:15 PM	#147
ack_bak Hidef Junkie Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 2,416	Warner is most likely making money with Blu-Ray. In this economy it would be crazy to drop any revenue stream that is profitable. Their biggest release of the year has not even come out yet (TDK). A title that was made for Blu-Ray. If it sells similar as Iron Man and Incredible Hulk nearly one in five people who buy TDK on optical disc will buy it on Blu-Ray.