High Def Forum - Your High Definition Community & High Definition Resource

Go Back   High Def Forum - Your High Definition Community & High Definition Resource > High Definition DVDs & Movies > High Definition Media
Rules HDTV Forum Gallery LINK TO US! RSS - High Def Forum AddThis Feed Button AddThis Social Bookmark Button Groups

High Definition Media A place to discuss BD, HD DVD and D-VHS and things that affect adoption of HD Media RSS - High Definition Media

Evidence Mounts That Blu-ray Will Struggle

Reply
AddThis Social Bookmark Button
 
Thread Tools
Old 05-14-2008, 03:40 PM   #1
Muscle Cars Forever!
 
Lee Stewart's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 37,573
Arrow Evidence Mounts That Blu-ray Will Struggle

Evidence Mounts That Blu-ray Will Struggle

Quote:
May 14, 2008 04:26 PM ET | David LaGesse | Permanent Link


Blu-ray won't replace DVDs as the leading format for selling and renting movies to consumers, says Stewart Wolpin at Digital Tech Consulting. He says there just isn't enough juice in the new format for consumers to plunk down several hundred dollars to make the switch.

"DTC does not expect Blu-ray to represent any more than a third of all DVD devices sold five years hence," he writes.

His prediction comes on the heels of reports from NPD and ABI Research that sales of Blu-ray players are sluggish, despite Blu-ray's victory in the format war when Toshiba pulled the plug on competitor HD DVD.

Wolpin's bearish take has roots in past, failed formats. Historically, higher resolution hasn't been enough to replace a media format. Think S-VHS and digital audiotapes, as well as higher-resolution CD formats like SACD and DVD-Audio that foundered.

Those that did succeed offered more than just better resolution. Blu-ray doesn't bring more convenience or longer play, as did CDs over vinyl records and DVDs over VHS.

Many analysts, though, aren't ready to count out Blu-ray. Studios and retailers will push the format, particularly once players start selling for about half their current starting price of around $400. But most agree that if Blu-ray doesn't get rolling in the next year or two, it's unlikely to prevail over a rising wave of digital competitors.
http://www.usnews.com/blogs/daves-do...-struggle.html
Lee Stewart is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2008, 03:53 PM   #2
Former Super Moderator - RIP
 
PFC5's Avatar
 

Join Date: May 2005
Location: Mass
Posts: 38,295
Default

Boy lots of bad news today for BD huh?
__________________
Denon AVR-887
Klipsch RP-5 Pwred Towers (mains) (525 watts peak each 12"Subs)
All Klipsch RC-25(ctr),(2)SS1(surr),(2)SS1(rearSurr)
Toshiba (2)HD-A20,PS3,BD35
For SACD/DVD-A Samsung HD-841
Panny 50pz80u plasma
SETTINGS
RCA HD50LPW162 50"DLP w/HD2+
SA 3250HD
47" LCD+Yamaha5790+HD-A1(bedroom)
Harmony 680 + (2) 670s (amazing remote/support)
Game room with Onkyo receiver & B&W Speakers
The_Cable_Game
Take the high ground and be happier
PSN: PFC5
PFC5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2008, 03:57 PM   #3
Muscle Cars Forever!
 
Lee Stewart's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 37,573
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by PFC5 View Post
Boy lots of bad news today for BD huh?

Give the BDA spin machine a chance to catch up.

Lee Stewart is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2008, 03:57 PM   #4
HD Elitist
 
hatt's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: FL
Age: 39
Posts: 6,294
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by PFC5 View Post
Boy lots of bad news today for BD huh?
What are you doing over here at this thread? I need you back at the other one in order to decode it.
hatt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2008, 03:58 PM   #5
Former Super Moderator - RIP
 
PFC5's Avatar
 

Join Date: May 2005
Location: Mass
Posts: 38,295
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by hatt View Post
What are you doing over here at this thread? I need you back at the other one in order to decode it.
I know that report is worded so horribly I had trouble decoding it myself.
__________________
Denon AVR-887
Klipsch RP-5 Pwred Towers (mains) (525 watts peak each 12"Subs)
All Klipsch RC-25(ctr),(2)SS1(surr),(2)SS1(rearSurr)
Toshiba (2)HD-A20,PS3,BD35
For SACD/DVD-A Samsung HD-841
Panny 50pz80u plasma
SETTINGS
RCA HD50LPW162 50"DLP w/HD2+
SA 3250HD
47" LCD+Yamaha5790+HD-A1(bedroom)
Harmony 680 + (2) 670s (amazing remote/support)
Game room with Onkyo receiver & B&W Speakers
The_Cable_Game
Take the high ground and be happier
PSN: PFC5
PFC5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2008, 04:08 PM   #6
High Definition is the definition of life.
 

Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 1,968
Default

Quote:
"DTC does not expect Blu-ray to represent any more than a third of all DVD devices sold five years hence," he writes.
Makes sense. I doubt HDTVs will even capture 1/10th of the number of non-hdtvs sold within the next 10 years.
ssjLancer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2008, 04:12 PM   #7
Muscle Cars Forever!
 
Lee Stewart's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 37,573
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by PFC5 View Post
I know that report is worded so horribly I had trouble decoding it myself.
Naaa . . all done.
Lee Stewart is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2008, 04:14 PM   #8
Muscle Cars Forever!
 
Lee Stewart's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 37,573
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ssjLancer View Post
Makes sense. I doubt HDTVs will even capture 1/10th of the number of non-hdtvs sold within the next 10 years.
And you would be wrong with that assumption.

Please go to BB, CC, WM or Sears and look for a 35+" TV that is NOT an HDTV.
Lee Stewart is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2008, 04:22 PM   #9
High Definition is the definition of life.
 
Chris Gerhard's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 10,923
Default

I think that Blu-ray having 1/3rd of the market in 5 years might be a little low, but I can't see how Blu-ray replaces DVD so I basically agree with the article. Since DVD is in about 98% of homes in the US, 1/3 of the business that DVD does is still a big number. Blu-ray will be used a lot in my household but so will DVD in 5 years.

An optimist would find that level of success going up against DVD pretty good, although whether or not the Blu-ray companies make any money is an unknown. I think many will never recover their investment personally, but I am not a stockholder and all I want is the best product and the best value and for me, Blu-ray delivers that.

Chris
__________________
Den - TiVoHD OTA Lifetime/1.16TB, Sony NSZ-GS7, Sony NSZ-GT1, Sony PS3, Oppo DV980H, Roku 2XS, Chromecast
MBR - TiVoHD OTA Lifetime/660GB, Oppo BDP-80, LG BD590, Toshiba HD-A30, Sony NSZ-GT1, Roku 2 XS
Home Theater - TiVo Premiere OTA Lifetime/2TB, LG BH200, PS3, Sony NSZ-GT1, Roku LT
Household via PlayOn/PlayLater/Plex - Alienware M15x Intel i7-740QM

Last edited by Chris Gerhard; 05-14-2008 at 04:37 PM.
Chris Gerhard is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2008, 04:27 PM   #10
High Definition is the definition of life.
 

Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 1,968
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post
And you would be wrong with that assumption.

Please go to BB, CC, WM or Sears and look for a 35+" TV that is NOT an HDTV.
1/10th was an exaggeration but point is even if HDTV miraculously manages to get into 80% of households(within 10 years) the vast majority of those homes will have maybe 1-2 HDTVs and 3-4 SDTVs.

Even in your post you only mention tvs 35+" for HDTVs.
ssjLancer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2008, 04:49 PM   #11
Muscle Cars Forever!
 
Lee Stewart's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 37,573
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ssjLancer View Post
1/10th was an exaggeration but point is even if HDTV miraculously manages to get into 80% of households(within 10 years) the vast majority of those homes will have maybe 1-2 HDTVs and 3-4 SDTVs.

Even in your post you only mention tvs 35+" for HDTVs.
OK . . I will drop it down to 30" . . . happy now? I can go lower if you'd like.

The article references BD. You need an HDTV to get the value of the benefit of BD - an HD movie on a disk.

AFAIK - the total of HDTV's compared to the total TV's installed in the USA is about 20% (114 million households - 98% have a TV - 2.1 TV's in the average household) About 57 million HDTV's have been sold in the USA.
Lee Stewart is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2008, 05:25 PM   #12
Former Super Moderator - RIP
 
PFC5's Avatar
 

Join Date: May 2005
Location: Mass
Posts: 38,295
Default

That comes to 23.4% of all tvs are HDTVs, which seems kind of high when you figure 2.1 TVs per household that has a TV. I read somewhere recently that they put the total households with HDTVs at 25%. I have 6 TVs and 3 of them are HDTVs now. That would actually put the number of households at a lower number closer to maybe your 20% after subtracting out the households with multiple HDTVs in it.
__________________
Denon AVR-887
Klipsch RP-5 Pwred Towers (mains) (525 watts peak each 12"Subs)
All Klipsch RC-25(ctr),(2)SS1(surr),(2)SS1(rearSurr)
Toshiba (2)HD-A20,PS3,BD35
For SACD/DVD-A Samsung HD-841
Panny 50pz80u plasma
SETTINGS
RCA HD50LPW162 50"DLP w/HD2+
SA 3250HD
47" LCD+Yamaha5790+HD-A1(bedroom)
Harmony 680 + (2) 670s (amazing remote/support)
Game room with Onkyo receiver & B&W Speakers
The_Cable_Game
Take the high ground and be happier
PSN: PFC5
PFC5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2008, 06:20 PM   #13
Muscle Cars Forever!
 
Lee Stewart's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 37,573
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by PFC5 View Post
That comes to 23.4% of all tvs are HDTVs, which seems kind of high when you figure 2.1 TVs per household that has a TV. I read somewhere recently that they put the total households with HDTVs at 25%. I have 6 TVs and 3 of them are HDTVs now. That would actually put the number of households at a lower number closer to maybe your 20% after subtracting out the households with multiple HDTVs in it.
The thing I can't remember is the size of the TV's in the average household.

For HDTV's it is 26" or greater.

Lots of people have 9, 12 and 15" TV's in the kitchen. Maybe that's the .1
Lee Stewart is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2008, 06:59 PM   #14
one love
 
anythingwt's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Scottsdale, AZ
Posts: 4,417
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ssjLancer View Post
1/10th was an exaggeration but point is even if HDTV miraculously manages to get into 80% of households(within 10 years) the vast majority of those homes will have maybe 1-2 HDTVs and 3-4 SDTVs.

Even in your post you only mention tvs 35+" for HDTVs.
People buy TVs under 35"?

I think I'd need binoculars to see a TV that small

As Lee stated though, they hardly sell any SDTVs anymore in stores nowadays, so I'd say in 10 yrs almost 100% of households will own at least one HDTV, and will be phasing out their old tubes. It doesn't hurt that prices for HD sets keep dropping as time passes.
__________________
"your dreams, minus your doubts, equal your reality"
anythingwt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2008, 07:10 PM   #15
Light my damn FIRE!
 
gosmosis's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Central Illinois
Age: 51
Posts: 5,597
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post
The thing I can't remember is the size of the TV's in the average household.

For HDTV's it is 26" or greater.

Lots of people have 9, 12 and 15" TV's in the kitchen. Maybe that's the .1
Yeah, I'm giving away all my old 9"s and 15"s. I'm ready to convert even those to HD.
__________________
Samsung LN46B550 LCD
Klipsch RP3 front, RC3 center,
Rythmik Audio DS1501 CI 15"sub
KEF HTS1001 surrounds
Denon AVR 988 receiver
Oppo BDP-83 blu-ray
Harmony ONE
bedroom...
Samsung LN-4069F LCD
Sony BDP-S350 blu-ray
Pioneer DV-563A DVD-SACD/DVD AUDIO

gosmosis is offline   Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links
Go Back   High Def Forum - Your High Definition Community & High Definition Resource > High Definition DVDs & Movies > High Definition Media
AddThis Social Bookmark Button
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off

Similar Threads to Evidence Mounts That Blu-ray Will Struggle
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Why I think Blu Ray will win the Format War venomxr8 High Definition Media 82 07-17-2009 06:10 PM
The Beginner's Guide to HDTV mswoods1 The High Definition Lounge 19 04-28-2008 02:03 PM
Analysts agree Blu ray victory will help PS3 outsell Xbox 360 eHDMI Gaming & Systems 81 02-26-2008 10:20 AM
What are all the differences between HD DVD and Blu Ray? Huh? mswoods1 High Definition Media 75 01-17-2008 04:44 PM
Blu ray vs hd dvd blu ray a winner lcjjm Blu-Ray Players 56 12-18-2007 05:48 PM


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 04:10 AM.



Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Search Engine Optimization by vBSEO 3.6.0
Copyright ©2004 - 2008, High Def Forum