Evidence Mounts That Blu-ray Will Struggle

Lee Stewart · 05-14-2008, 03:40 PM

Evidence Mounts That Blu-ray Will Struggle

Quote:

May 14, 2008 04:26 PM ET | David LaGesse | Permanent Link

Blu-ray won't replace DVDs as the leading format for selling and renting movies to consumers, says Stewart Wolpin at Digital Tech Consulting. He says there just isn't enough juice in the new format for consumers to plunk down several hundred dollars to make the switch.

"DTC does not expect Blu-ray to represent any more than a third of all DVD devices sold five years hence," he writes.

His prediction comes on the heels of reports from NPD and ABI Research that sales of Blu-ray players are sluggish, despite Blu-ray's victory in the format war when Toshiba pulled the plug on competitor HD DVD.

Wolpin's bearish take has roots in past, failed formats. Historically, higher resolution hasn't been enough to replace a media format. Think S-VHS and digital audiotapes, as well as higher-resolution CD formats like SACD and DVD-Audio that foundered.

Those that did succeed offered more than just better resolution. Blu-ray doesn't bring more convenience or longer play, as did CDs over vinyl records and DVDs over VHS.

Many analysts, though, aren't ready to count out Blu-ray. Studios and retailers will push the format, particularly once players start selling for about half their current starting price of around $400. But most agree that if Blu-ray doesn't get rolling in the next year or two, it's unlikely to prevail over a rising wave of digital competitors.

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/daves-do...-struggle.html

PFC5 · 05-14-2008, 03:53 PM

Boy lots of bad news today for BD huh?

Lee Stewart · 05-14-2008, 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PFC5

Boy lots of bad news today for BD huh?

Give the BDA spin machine a chance to catch up.

hatt · 05-14-2008, 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PFC5

Boy lots of bad news today for BD huh?

What are you doing over here at this thread? I need you back at the other one in order to decode it.

PFC5 · 05-14-2008, 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hatt

What are you doing over here at this thread? I need you back at the other one in order to decode it.

I know that report is worded so horribly I had trouble decoding it myself.

ssjLancer · 05-14-2008, 04:08 PM

Quote:

"DTC does not expect Blu-ray to represent any more than a third of all DVD devices sold five years hence," he writes.

Makes sense. I doubt HDTVs will even capture 1/10th of the number of non-hdtvs sold within the next 10 years.

Lee Stewart · 05-14-2008, 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PFC5

I know that report is worded so horribly I had trouble decoding it myself.

Naaa . . all done.

Lee Stewart · 05-14-2008, 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ssjLancer

Makes sense. I doubt HDTVs will even capture 1/10th of the number of non-hdtvs sold within the next 10 years.

And you would be wrong with that assumption.

Please go to BB, CC, WM or Sears and look for a 35+" TV that is NOT an HDTV.

Chris Gerhard · 05-14-2008, 04:22 PM

I think that Blu-ray having 1/3rd of the market in 5 years might be a little low, but I can't see how Blu-ray replaces DVD so I basically agree with the article. Since DVD is in about 98% of homes in the US, 1/3 of the business that DVD does is still a big number. Blu-ray will be used a lot in my household but so will DVD in 5 years.

An optimist would find that level of success going up against DVD pretty good, although whether or not the Blu-ray companies make any money is an unknown. I think many will never recover their investment personally, but I am not a stockholder and all I want is the best product and the best value and for me, Blu-ray delivers that.

Chris

ssjLancer · 05-14-2008, 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

And you would be wrong with that assumption.

Please go to BB, CC, WM or Sears and look for a 35+" TV that is NOT an HDTV.

1/10th was an exaggeration but point is even if HDTV miraculously manages to get into 80% of households(within 10 years) the vast majority of those homes will have maybe 1-2 HDTVs and 3-4 SDTVs.

Even in your post you only mention tvs 35+" for HDTVs.

Lee Stewart · 05-14-2008, 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ssjLancer

1/10th was an exaggeration but point is even if HDTV miraculously manages to get into 80% of households(within 10 years) the vast majority of those homes will have maybe 1-2 HDTVs and 3-4 SDTVs.

Even in your post you only mention tvs 35+" for HDTVs.

OK . . I will drop it down to 30" . . . happy now? I can go lower if you'd like.

The article references BD. You need an HDTV to get the value of the benefit of BD - an HD movie on a disk.

AFAIK - the total of HDTV's compared to the total TV's installed in the USA is about 20% (114 million households - 98% have a TV - 2.1 TV's in the average household) About 57 million HDTV's have been sold in the USA.

PFC5 · 05-14-2008, 05:25 PM

That comes to 23.4% of all tvs are HDTVs, which seems kind of high when you figure 2.1 TVs per household that has a TV. I read somewhere recently that they put the total households with HDTVs at 25%. I have 6 TVs and 3 of them are HDTVs now. That would actually put the number of households at a lower number closer to maybe your 20% after subtracting out the households with multiple HDTVs in it.

Lee Stewart · 05-14-2008, 06:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PFC5

That comes to 23.4% of all tvs are HDTVs, which seems kind of high when you figure 2.1 TVs per household that has a TV. I read somewhere recently that they put the total households with HDTVs at 25%. I have 6 TVs and 3 of them are HDTVs now. That would actually put the number of households at a lower number closer to maybe your 20% after subtracting out the households with multiple HDTVs in it.

The thing I can't remember is the size of the TV's in the average household.

For HDTV's it is 26" or greater.

Lots of people have 9, 12 and 15" TV's in the kitchen. Maybe that's the .1

anythingwt · 05-14-2008, 06:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ssjLancer

1/10th was an exaggeration but point is even if HDTV miraculously manages to get into 80% of households(within 10 years) the vast majority of those homes will have maybe 1-2 HDTVs and 3-4 SDTVs.

Even in your post you only mention tvs 35+" for HDTVs.

People buy TVs under 35"?

I think I'd need binoculars to see a TV that small

As Lee stated though, they hardly sell any SDTVs anymore in stores nowadays, so I'd say in 10 yrs almost 100% of households will own at least one HDTV, and will be phasing out their old tubes. It doesn't hurt that prices for HD sets keep dropping as time passes.

gosmosis · 05-14-2008, 07:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

The thing I can't remember is the size of the TV's in the average household.

For HDTV's it is 26" or greater.

Lots of people have 9, 12 and 15" TV's in the kitchen. Maybe that's the .1

Yeah, I'm giving away all my old 9"s and 15"s. I'm ready to convert even those to HD.

05-14-2008, 03:53 PM	#2
PFC5 Former Super Moderator - RIP Join Date: May 2005 Location: Mass Posts: 38,295	Boy lots of bad news today for BD huh? __________________ Denon AVR-887 Klipsch RP-5 Pwred Towers (mains) (525 watts peak each 12"Subs) All Klipsch RC-25(ctr),(2)SS1(surr),(2)SS1(rearSurr) Toshiba (2)HD-A20,PS3,BD35 For SACD/DVD-A Samsung HD-841 Panny 50pz80u plasma SETTINGS RCA HD50LPW162 50"DLP w/HD2+ SA 3250HD 47" LCD+Yamaha5790+HD-A1(bedroom) Harmony 680 + (2) 670s (amazing remote/support) Game room with Onkyo receiver & B&W Speakers The_Cable_Game Take the high ground and be happier PSN: PFC5

05-14-2008, 04:22 PM	#9
Chris Gerhard High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 10,789	I think that Blu-ray having 1/3rd of the market in 5 years might be a little low, but I can't see how Blu-ray replaces DVD so I basically agree with the article. Since DVD is in about 98% of homes in the US, 1/3 of the business that DVD does is still a big number. Blu-ray will be used a lot in my household but so will DVD in 5 years. An optimist would find that level of success going up against DVD pretty good, although whether or not the Blu-ray companies make any money is an unknown. I think many will never recover their investment personally, but I am not a stockholder and all I want is the best product and the best value and for me, Blu-ray delivers that. Chris Last edited by Chris Gerhard; 05-14-2008 at 04:37 PM.

05-14-2008, 05:25 PM	#12
PFC5 Former Super Moderator - RIP Join Date: May 2005 Location: Mass Posts: 38,295	That comes to 23.4% of all tvs are HDTVs, which seems kind of high when you figure 2.1 TVs per household that has a TV. I read somewhere recently that they put the total households with HDTVs at 25%. I have 6 TVs and 3 of them are HDTVs now. That would actually put the number of households at a lower number closer to maybe your 20% after subtracting out the households with multiple HDTVs in it. __________________ Denon AVR-887 Klipsch RP-5 Pwred Towers (mains) (525 watts peak each 12"Subs) All Klipsch RC-25(ctr),(2)SS1(surr),(2)SS1(rearSurr) Toshiba (2)HD-A20,PS3,BD35 For SACD/DVD-A Samsung HD-841 Panny 50pz80u plasma SETTINGS RCA HD50LPW162 50"DLP w/HD2+ SA 3250HD 47" LCD+Yamaha5790+HD-A1(bedroom) Harmony 680 + (2) 670s (amazing remote/support) Game room with Onkyo receiver & B&W Speakers The_Cable_Game Take the high ground and be happier PSN: PFC5

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