Strategy Analytics: As Format War Ends, 29 Million Blu-ray Homes Expected This Year

03-26-2008, 09:42 AM

Quote:

Strategy Analytics: As Format War Ends, 29 Million Blu-ray Homes Expected This Year

The Blu-ray Disc victory in its recent format war with HD-DVD will propel this technology into 29.4 million homes worldwide by the end of 2008, according to the latest research published by the Strategy Analytics Connected Home Devices service. According to, “Blu-ray Devices: Forecasting Sales and Ownership,” Sony’s PS3 games console will continue to drive the Blu-ray market until 2009, after which stand-alone Blu-ray players will become the dominant segment. By 2012 more than 132 million homes worldwide will own at least one Blu-ray device.

“HD-DVD’s withdrawal leaves the way open for Blu-ray to become a major revenue earner for technology vendors and content owners alike,” says David Mercer, Principal Analyst. “The 265 million homes that will own an HDTV by 2012, and Hollywood’s need for a new growth engine, represent huge incentives for the industry to coordinate marketing activities and demonstrate unified support for the successor to DVD.”

This Strategy Analytics report predicts that global sales of Blu-ray devices will reach 18.8 million units in 2008, including 4 million stand-alone players, 13 million consoles and nearly 2 million PCs. By 2012, annual sales of all BD devices will reach 57.4 million units. The largest market will be in Europe, with 26.4 million, followed by the US (22.6 million) and Japan (8.4 million).

The table, “Blu-ray Disc Devices: Household Penetration Forecast,” may be seen at http://www.strategyanalytics.net/def...Viewer&a0=3862

About Strategy Analytics

Strategy Analytics, Inc focuses on market opportunities and disruptive forces in the areas of Automotive Electronics and Entertainment, Broadband Connected Home, Mobile & Wireless Intelligent Systems Implementation Strategies and High Frequency Market intelligence. For more information, please visit http://www.strategyanalytics.net/

HD Goofnut · 03-26-2008, 09:44 AM

Well, they sure are optimistic I would say. Hey look there's a flying pig.

MikeRox · 03-26-2008, 09:50 AM

Not that optimistic really. Don't forget this is global. 13m PS3 sales would put the console selling as well as it currently is. I don't think they'll be far off. Though whether even 25% of those homes bother to use Blu-ray players for watching Blu-ray films really does remain to be seen.

Dare · 03-26-2008, 10:14 AM

It includes stowaway BD drives in PCs and PS3, which may or may not (probably not) have been purchased for the purpose of watching movies. Whatever the case, it's the BD disc sales that tell the story.

Those combined give you the dreaded 'attach rate' number.

HD Goofnut · 03-26-2008, 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dare

It includes stowaway BD drives in PCs and PS3, which may or may not (probably not) have been purchased for the purpose of watching movies. Whatever the case, it's the BD disc sales that tell the story.

Those combined give you the dreaded 'attach rate' number.

Which is exactly BD's problem. They are selling plenty of BD drives and players, but they are not getting the attach rate they want. That's because kids are getting PS3s for Christmas and Bday gifts and they don't care about movies. People are buying PCs with a BD drive and they may not even realize it's in there.

Stew4HD · 03-26-2008, 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HD Goofnut

Which is exactly BD's problem. They are selling plenty of BD drives and players, but they are not getting the attach rate they want. That's because kids are getting PS3s for Christmas and Bday gifts and they don't care about movies. People are buying PCs with a BD drive and they may not even realize it's in there.

Oh, there you go making sense again... you trouble maker, you!

Deja Vu · 03-26-2008, 11:33 AM

Illegal downloads and renting BD will expand while actual purchases will drop off. BD is just too expensive to buy and then never watch it again. This is not a problem for $5 to $10 DVDs, but is a problem for $20 DVDs. If renting and downloading is hurting DVD it will really restrict the sale of BDs.

Cheers,

Grant

MikeRox · 03-26-2008, 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HD Goofnut

People are buying PCs with a BD drive and they may not even realize it's in there.

If they manage that over here, they clearly have more money than sense

a Blu-ray drive generally spikes the cost of the PC/Laptop by around £300 (or $600 in monopoly money)

kamspy · 03-26-2008, 12:08 PM

Seems we are having a classic case of "if it suits us then it's great (THX article), but if it props up BD, it's a flying pig(this article)"

Yes, that is a saying. I just made it one.

MikeRox · 03-26-2008, 12:12 PM

I'm noticing that too... true HDM fans have now embraced Blu-ray regardless of their original stance tbh. There are still definitely negative things to be said about Blu-ray, but calling articles such as this hogwash because you want Blu-ray to fail is just meh. Especially when it's not actually that unrealistic a prediction.

As I said though, getting the players installed seems to be the easy part, it's getting software sold they're going to have fun and games with, unless they start getting more creative with the pricing.

kamspy · 03-26-2008, 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeRox

I'm noticing that too... true HDM fans have now embraced Blu-ray regardless of their original stance tbh. There are still definitely negative things to be said about Blu-ray, but calling articles such as this hogwash because you want Blu-ray to fail is just meh. Especially when it's not actually that unrealistic a prediction.

As I said though, getting the players installed seems to be the easy part, it's getting software sold they're going to have fun and games with, unless they start getting more creative with the pricing.

I don't want everyone to blindly follow blu-ray like a pack of zombies, but for god's sake. This is a HIGH DEF forum! We are supposed to like HIGH DEF, yet some of us (HD Goofnut), just posts crap like that without even reading the article. Why aren't we giving the positive articles the benefit of the doubt? Instead, most rally blindly behind the negative articles! For god's sake, THX, a sticker company says BD is going to fail because of flash memory that cost $150 for 32GB when blank. Want to take a gander at what that would cost with a movie and marketing behind it? Given that a blank DL-DVD-R costs about $0.75, and a new release DVD runs about $19.99 we are multiplying by about 20. So 150 * 20 = $3,000 for your favorite movie on a 32GB flash card. I know these prices will come down, but they have a long road ahead of them.

I'll bet you a burrito he didn't even read the article before being the first one to post on it. Of course there's no way to prove that. He can come back and say he skimmed it 3 times with a fine toothed comb.

Lee Stewart · 03-26-2008, 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kamspy

I don't want everyone to blindly follow blu-ray like a pack of zombies, but for god's sake. This is a HIGH DEF forum! We are supposed to like HIGH DEF, yet some of us (HD Goofnut), just posts crap like that without even reading the article. Why aren't we giving the positive articles the benefit of the doubt? Instead, most rally blindly behind the negative articles! For god's sake, THX, a sticker company says BD is going to fail because of flash memory that cost $150 for 32GB when blank. Want to take a gander at what that would cost with a movie and marketing behind it? Given that a blank DL-DVD-R costs about $0.75, and a new release DVD runs about $19.99 we are multiplying by about 20. So 150 * 20 = $3,000 for your favorite movie on a 32GB flash card. I know these prices will come down, but they have a long road ahead of them.

I'll bet you a burrito he didn't even read the article before being the first one to post on it. Of course there's no way to prove that. He can come back and say he skimmed it 3 times with a fine toothed comb.

We know they can sell hardware because of the PS3. 90% of the numbers today represent the PS3.

It is as always, the question of the SAL and there are many questions still with no answer.

I would be much more concerned with reports that talk about how many movies will be in the BD library. 29 million players and 3000 to 5000 movies does not make a format a raging success.

If content is king then THAT has to be addressed.

03-26-2008, 12:56 PM

As we know the BDA is speculating, that with the rising popularity of the format more and more PS3 owners start to care about high def movies. We'll have to wait and see if that happens.

NPD did a survey once, claiming more than 70% of PS3 consoles are connected to a HDTV. So the basics are there, now the horse just has to drink the blu water.

Imo it will be interesting to see the sales figures for a title like I am Legend, which

a, imo caters to the "PS3 demographics"
b, was on sale for less than $20 during the last phase of the preorder period

kamspy · 03-26-2008, 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

We know they can sell hardware because of the PS3. 90% of the numbers today represent the PS3.

It is as always, the question of the SAL and there are many questions still with no answer.

I would be much more concerned with reports that talk about how many movies will be in the BD library. 29 million players and 3000 to 5000 movies does not make a format a raging success.

If content is king then THAT has to be addressed.

Studios still release movies on UMD and the only device that can play that is the PSP. Period. No other alternatives for UMD playback.

Who knows if BD needs to be a "raging success" for studios to support it for years. I don't think it has to.

Lee Stewart · 03-26-2008, 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kamspy

Studios still release movies on UMD and the only device that can play that is the PSP. Period. No other alternatives for UMD playback.

Who knows if BD needs to be a "raging success" for studios to support it for years. I don't think it has to.

I am sorry - I realize the 29 million will be YTD 2008. That will put the number of titles somewheres around 1200 if they step up releases.

For the person buying a BD SAL they will want to know that there are plenty of movies to watch.

Is 1200 going to be enough or will it turn people off?

03-26-2008, 09:44 AM	#2
HD Goofnut Official HDF BD Reviewer Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Mississippi, U.S.A. Your resident Dune, Star Wars, and war film expert Posts: 9,556	Well, they sure are optimistic I would say. Hey look there's a flying pig. __________________ BenQ MP512ST, Panasonic TC-L55ET5 55" 360Hz LED/3D, Sharp LC-46SB57UN 46" 120 Hz LCD, Sanyo DP46848 46" 60Hz LCD, HP 21.5" 60Hz LCD Onkyo TX-NR709 7.1/Onkyo SKS-HT540 ASUS BD Drive, LG BH200, Sony Optiarc Blu-ray Burner, Sony BDP-590, Vizio VBR220 My Motion Picture Collection Latest BD Review: *Jack Reacher*

03-26-2008, 09:50 AM	#3
MikeRox Connoisseur of Fine Games Join Date: May 2007 Location: Huddersfield, United Kingdom Posts: 15,756	Not that optimistic really. Don't forget this is global. 13m PS3 sales would put the console selling as well as it currently is. I don't think they'll be far off. Though whether even 25% of those homes bother to use Blu-ray players for watching Blu-ray films really does remain to be seen. __________________ Currently Playing: Xenoblade Chronicles, Ridge Racer 3D, DIRT 3

03-26-2008, 10:14 AM	#4
Dare I moon you. Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Phoenix, Arizona Posts: 4,523	It includes stowaway BD drives in PCs and PS3, which may or may not (probably not) have been purchased for the purpose of watching movies. Whatever the case, it's the BD disc sales that tell the story. Those combined give you the dreaded 'attach rate' number. __________________ LG GGC-H20L Super Multi Blue Blu-ray & HD DVD ROM Drive 58 Lost count

03-26-2008, 12:12 PM	#10
MikeRox Connoisseur of Fine Games Join Date: May 2007 Location: Huddersfield, United Kingdom Posts: 15,756	I'm noticing that too... true HDM fans have now embraced Blu-ray regardless of their original stance tbh. There are still definitely negative things to be said about Blu-ray, but calling articles such as this hogwash because you want Blu-ray to fail is just meh. Especially when it's not actually that unrealistic a prediction. As I said though, getting the players installed seems to be the easy part, it's getting software sold they're going to have fun and games with, unless they start getting more creative with the pricing. __________________ Currently Playing: Xenoblade Chronicles, Ridge Racer 3D, DIRT 3

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03-26-2008, 11:33 AM	#7
Deja Vu We Are Right (WAR) ! Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Great White North Posts: 625	Illegal downloads and renting BD will expand while actual purchases will drop off. BD is just too expensive to buy and then never watch it again. This is not a problem for $5 to $10 DVDs, but is a problem for $20 DVDs. If renting and downloading is hurting DVD it will really restrict the sale of BDs. Cheers, Grant

03-26-2008, 12:08 PM	#9
kamspy Brewers lol Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 21,932	Seems we are having a classic case of "if it suits us then it's great (THX article), but if it props up BD, it's a flying pig(this article)" Yes, that is a saying. I just made it one.

03-26-2008, 12:56 PM	#13
Nikopol Guest Posts: n/a	As we know the BDA is speculating, that with the rising popularity of the format more and more PS3 owners start to care about high def movies. We'll have to wait and see if that happens. NPD did a survey once, claiming more than 70% of PS3 consoles are connected to a HDTV. So the basics are there, now the horse just has to drink the blu water. Imo it will be interesting to see the sales figures for a title like I am Legend, which a, imo caters to the "PS3 demographics" b, was on sale for less than $20 during the last phase of the preorder period