IMO: Can You Really Compare HDM to DVD?

Lee Stewart

Again you really can't include HDTV because of it's situation, ie: only type of TV you can buy. No competition. It was picked by ALL companies.

Today - if you look at the thread with "Some BD Numbers" - you have to admit - no question - that BD is a "drop in the ocean" when compared to DVD today and that is one of the competitors that BD has to take on. SID - BD has sold 9 million movies. DVD sells on a yearly average . . . . 100 million DVD's per month.

So today, BD is a niche market - limited titles - less than 600 versus 90,000. Sales are a tiny fraction of DVD sales.

HDTV is a mainstream product and BD is a niche product. The question we are all wondering is . . . can BD break out of it's niche market and become a mainstream product. I say no for reasons I have already gone through.

You don't have to agree with me. I understand that. And I am not being negative about BD. I just believe the task is so difficult it will become impossible.

ssjLancer

Apart from Toshiba, BD has all the major CE companies.

Gotcha. Ive always considered HDTVs to be mainstream.

In this thread.
Bluray Disc . . . Niche Or Mainstream Format?
I said BD would be considered mainstream when it can get a good percentage of HDTV owners. You said it would still be niche.
Why the change of heart lee?
30% is mainstream for HDTVs but not for BDs?

Lee Stewart

There are how many CEM's making BD players versus CEM's making HDTV's? And how deep is their product lines compared to the BD CEM's?

Then why did you refer to it as a niche in your previous posts?

Change of heart? I have never said otherwise - BD will be a niche product - when compared to DVD. And yes - If 20% of all household had a BD player that would be niche in my book. Needs to get over 50%. THEN it would be considered mainstream . . . in my book.

hatt

If 20% of households have a BD player you can do anything you want with your book. I'd be plenty happy with the flood of hardware and software to tap that market.

ssjLancer

How many CEM's are making HDTV's compared to those making those making mp3 players? That reasoning doesnt work. BD has enough.
Again bad reasoning. Sony offers 3 different DVD players. They also offer 3 different BD player models. In Japan they only have Blu Ray based digital recorders. And then there's companies like Sharp who dont even make DVD players, only Blu Ray.

Cause I was using your definition.

??? 30% for HDTVs is mainstream. but less than 50% for Blu Ray is niche.

ok. Guess I cant make you change your reasoning.

Lee Stewart

Here is the problem . . . the PS3.

When you count the PS3 - you will probably reach over 25% by the end of next year (120 million households in the USA BTW)

So the penetration will be "high" . . . but if you have 2000 titles? And you are only selling 2 million discs per month.

Talk about a niche market . . . the BD SAL player. 9 out of every 10 BD players sold is a PS3. The BD SAL's hold 10% of the BD player market.

hatt

If it is used as a BD player I'd count it as a BD player. If only games are played I wouldn't count it. You think Sony is going to sell 25+ millions PS3 in the US alone by next year or SAL sales are going to pick way up?

Lee Stewart

Enough to do what?

How about Sharp? Samsung? Panasonic? They each sell over 10 different HDTV's.

You can't define a market that has two pieces - a player and something that goes into the player strictly by the number of players in peoples homes because 90% of the players are also game consoles. You have to look at the actual sales of movies for those players.

There were 2 million LD players and the average title did 10,000 to 20,000.

When BD hit's 45% - HDTV will have achieved over 70%. Don't compare today to 4 years from today. That's not a fair comparison.

And I definitely can't take you changing the facts and my words to try to win a debate. Maybe it's best we avoid each other Lancer - I mean it.

ssjLancer

The BDA has as much companies as the DVD forum when they first started.

Sharp doesnt sell any DVD players. Both Panny and Samsung have the same amount of DVD and BD player models. I guess that means DVD players arent as mainstream as BD players. According to you.
Just below you said you cant compare today to 4 years from now. Well you cant compare something thats been out for just over a year and something thats been out for 20 years.

So now youre saying 70 percent will be considered mainstream instead of 30 percent?
Its easy for me to manipulate your argument because you yourself dont have a firm grasp on it.

Lee Stewart

Lancer:

We agree to disagree

ssjLancer

Final List

DVD
1. No more rewinding
2. No tracking adjustment
3. Constant image quality no matter how many times you play it.
4. Multiple languages
5. Subtitles
6. The menu system
7. Chapter selection
8. Smaller packaging
9. Introduced the Interactive feature
10. The audio comentary
11. Better PQ
12. Better AQ
13. Widescreen

BD
1. HD Video
2. Lossless Audio and better DD/DTS tracks
3. DS PIP
4. Internet Features
5. Better looking menu
6. Pop-up menu
7. BD-J Interactivity
8. Longer play time and more content
9. Backwards Compatible (and upscaling)
10. Scratch Resistant

I put Internet Features and BD-J interactivity as one each.. even though I should have included each individual feature as its own point (chat, games, pop up video, search function, online shopping, downloadible ringtones, online galleries, downloadable videos, downloadable tracks etc.)

MikeRox

how come they're features now that Blu-ray has it... but were needless pointless gimmicks nobody wants when they were "exclusive" to HD DVD?

If you're being realistic, 3,4,5,6 and 7 all fit into one category as "advanced interactivity". Longer playtime/more content is also questionable, given titles like Pirates of the Carribean still needed 2 disc editions. That extra capacity was used purely on the improved video and audio meaning for a truly high quality encode, there isn't longer playtime, only if you were dealing with SD content which we aren't.

BD
1. HD Video
2. Lossless Audio and better DD/DTS tracks
3. Advanced Interactivity
4. Backwards Compatible (and upscaling)
5. Scratch Resistant

And if you were being purely J6P... Video and Audio improvements would be tied into one too. which would leave just 4 tangible improvements for their $400 upgrade.

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ssjLancer

Thats why I didnt put it on. HDDVD fans should be gushing over those gimmicks though.

If I just put in 'advanced interactivity' you'd asked me 'what kind of advanced interactivity'
So no.
Kingdom of Heaven is 2 discs just for the movie in DVD. 1 on BD.
Theres also a number of movies that have special features on one BD whereas they had to be on a second disc on DVD.
We live in a world where people are complaining about having to switch remotes.. where we need CD changers cause people hate swapping discs.

Nope.

mshulman

Here's the items I believe most mainstream buyers would be most interested in.

DVD
1. No more rewinding
3. Constant image quality no matter how many times you play it.
7. Chapter selection
8. Smaller packaging
11. Better PQ
12. Better AQ
13. Widescreen - this is a stretch - at least at the time of release

BD
1. HD Video


I think its clear DVD had a LOT more to offer that made it really compelling to buy it. Most of the average buyers are likely looking at Blu-ray and just really seeing that it is HD which gives them a better picture. Everything else is extra.

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ssjLancer

You forgot complete backwards compatibility.

DVD could have cut its adoption time in half or more if it could record and was completely compatible with VHS collections.