Conspiracy!

KEEBS1984

Ok so this is mainly just for fun. It's been something that I have been thinking about for a while now, since late July actually. I don't really believe this is what happened but it makes for an interesting read anyways. Also, it's not totally out of the picture that this could happen. Anyways onto the conspiracy :

Was the format war all a manipulated plan to subvert the consumer into buying a new product they didn't need? Over the course of the format war (which continues to rage on today) a few semi-major events cropped up that suggests that Sony, Toshiba, Microsoft, and all movie studios were actually manipulating the format war from the beginning in order in ensure that the HD format would succeed and not flounder. Let's start with the beginning:

Back in 2005 Toshiba and Sony had both agreed that a format war was not good and that they needed to combine their technology to avoid one.

The media (movie studios) picked up this story and ran with it citing that a "format war" (over exaggerated mumbo jumbo) would be the worst possible thing for consumers with constant references to the VHS-Beta war. Reassurances that the populace would know exactly what would happen.

Subsequently the talks between Sony and Toshiba broke down citing that each one had wanted different things to be included in the disc.

Sony announced that the PS3 would carry a Bluray player inside. Microsoft also announced exclusive support for the HD DVD format, thus sealing the videogame crowd into the market. Games are one of the few consumers who buy into this kind of crap. . . loyalty is everything.

The 360 launched in 2005, securing a win over the PS3, but without an HD DVD player securing an underdog status for HD DVD.

Both HD DVD and Blu-ray officially launch (HD DVD first). HD DVD is backed by Weinstein and Universal exclusively and by Warner, Paramount, and Magnolia. Blu-ray is backed by Fox, Disney, Sony, Lionsgate, and MGM exclusively. HD DVD underdog status is officially achieved but it was given enough power so as to present a "challenge" to Blu-ray.

From Summer 2006-Nov 2006 HD DVD is firmly winning the format war due to it's obvious price advantage, another thing given to the underdog format. This is done to show that HD DVD actually might be able to win. . .

PS3 launches, and although it boosts Blu-ray to a 2-1 sales lead, it flounders horribly as a videogame machine. Perhaps this was in the deal the whole time. Sony gets to have the next gen format but has to secede the videogame market to Microsoft (nobody expected Nintendo to do so well at this point).

In order to stave off any consumer overthrow of the Blu-ray format (and it's very expensive prices) the HD DVD studios are told not to release anything for about 4 months after the PS3 launches. This gives the consumer the idea that Blu-ray has already won.

Weinstein drops out of the HD race. This appears to have not been part of the plan at all. They shut up, step back, and refuse to comment on anything regarding HD or Blu-ray. Perhaps they thought manipulating a war was bad and feared that if consumers found out about what was happening all parties involved would suffer a severe backlash, something a smaller studio like Weinstein couldn't afford.

July of 2007, HD DVD seems to be very near the brink of death. With only one studio supporting it exclusively the consumers are beginning to waive in their support for the format. Something needs to be done since the war hasn't gained enough publicity yet. Paramount/Dreamworks are told to go exclusively to HD DVD. The media is a riot. They rave on and on and on about how HD DVD was about to die and how this may have saved them. Reports of a "buy-out" swirl for the weeks ahead.

Reports that Microsoft and Toshiba are currently trying to buy Warner circle the rumor parts of media conglomerates for at least 2 months after the P/DW announcement.

Rumours of an HD DVD equipped Xbox 360 start to crop up, but each time they are firmly dashed with no question on the matter. It's not part of the deal that Microsoft's console is to have a built in HD DVD player, which would cause severe headaches for the PS3. Remember: Microsoft gets gaming, Sony gets the next format.

Sony sells off it's chip processing to Toshiba, which is now actively making the cell processor for the PS3, their largest "competition" in the format war. Maybe this is payment to Toshiba for wasting so much money on helping to fuel a fraudulent war?

Warner comes out and says that it has to choose a side, after canceling their THD program. Citing that stand alone players matter most, they give hope to the consumer that HD DVD will win over Warner exclusivity. After all, at this point HD DVD players were much cheaper than Blu-ray's, one of the key aspects that made it consumer friendly.

HD DVD needs to secure in people's minds that Warner will go HD DVD exclusively (more publicity) so they launch a deal with Wal-Mart to sell cheap $99 players. 90,000 are sold. The consumer is convinced that, based off of Warner's statements, they will go HD DVD exclusive and HD DVD will win. The media reports all the positive news surrounding HD DVD.

Transformer's releases to the general public on DVD and HD DVD. Not realizing what a huge flick it would be the companies quickly organize a BOGO for Blu-ray titles. Afterall, HD DVD can't win one single week or the consumer might see a shift in the war.

Paramount declares it sold 190,000 HD DVDs in the first week for Transformers, which are disputed by the BDA and Neilson's Videoscan. Another media shitfest hits, providing more and more publicity to the format war.

Every major HD DVD title from then on has a Blu-ray BOGO attached to it just to ensure the master plan does not get thwarted.

Mid-December; HD DVD begins launching it's own BOGO sales to begin "clearing stock" Warner knows that it's time to shift to Blu-ray is almost here and thus many of the BOGO sales surround Warner's titles.

Friday, 2 days before CES 2008 starts Warner is told to go Blu-ray exclusive. A media craze is struck up again. Most touting that Blu-ray has won the "war".

Toshiba is told to issue a press release hinting at possible legal issues between them and Warner.

Toshiba cancels it's 2 hour event at CES due to them "not knowing" that Warner was going to make the switch. . .

Is there gonna be more to this conspiracy tale? Universal and P/DW are still exclusive to HD DVD. They could ride this media circus for at least 3-4 more months.

My main point in all of this is that the whole war was manipulated from the beginning so that the HDM wouldn't flounder like Laserdisc did. It is common knowledge (and I think even Lee said this) that revolutionary products take hold very fast, evolutionary products often do not. HDM is very much an evolutionary product that builds off the DVD format. Without all the loyalty and bickering in forums and stores would HDM have gotten this far? Is it an interesting enough product that consumers would have been interested if the media didn't tell us to be interested in it?

Is this a legit conspiracy? Who knows. . . I don't necessarily believe that this did happen. What I do believe is that this could happen. Hollywood is losing more and more money each year. It's only so long that they try something as dramatic as this. . .

Anyways, take this for what it is: a fun read. That's why I wrote it. This is not a bash on Blu-ray or HD DVD. Just a conspiracy theory.

Bravestime

WOW,,,,KEEBS,, you need a serious vacation!

Your brain is on double time, slow down!

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GLOW

Damn, KEEBS! Can I get a Cliffs Notes of this post? I like reading your posts (usually) but damn... my ADD can't handle this.

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Super XP

Intersting take you have their? Not bad at all, why not write an article about this and present it to the right people

HD DVD is backed by:
Weinstein
Universal
Paramount
DreamWorks
Magnolia
Image Entertainment
HBO
Warner - (up until June 1, 2008)
New Line - (up until June 1, 2008)

Blu-ray is backed by:
Fox
Disney
Sony
Lionsgate
MGM
Magnolia
Image Entertainment
HBO
Warner
New Line

Does HD DVD still have one it takes? I think so despite the mad media coverage right now.

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rers0613

Nice read. it includes a lot of factual information that put together make an interesting timeline. Not saying it's true, but definately a possibility. Too many things don't add up such as Toshiba building chips for Sony but I am sure it will come out in the future.

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tomes

I need a couple of hours to digest THAT post!

Seriously Keebs, are you a writer as a profession or something?

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KEEBS1984

I appreciate your guys' sentiments. I seriously did it out of complete fun, and really don't actually believe this is what happened.

I love writing, and yes I do write professionally.

I know I probably left out some details here and there but I think the main point was made, and I hope it was a fun read.

KEEBS1984

I'm considering putting this out to a number of editorial freelance websites and see if they want to pick up on it. Anybody care to help me proof read it?

jugganutz

To add to the conspircy theroy what if this was announced to start a fire sale on hd-dvd players for cheap. Force toshiba to drop there prices to a consumer level. Because remember they are great upconverting dvd players as the guy at Universal has always been saying in his press releases. So J6P buys them because they are cheap. Soon enough you have 3 million homes with a hd player and warner brothers switches back. Because i find it really hard to believe that toshiba had no knowledge about this happening.

DVD+RW

It was a fun read.
Thanks man

daiello

Good read. Try to get this out all over the place.

I also wondered about why M$ didn't step up and throw money at Warner to send them HDDVD. But makes me wonder if the rumors about M$ just wanting to goto downloads were in fact true.

I mean, Blu winning won't mean mass buying of players, the price needs to come down before then, so going blu is more likely to fail than HD DVD, IMO, but they might both be failures, we won't know now.

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crazyal

I have a simpler conspiracy for you to think over. Warner has said they want to move towards downloadable and PPV movies and away from DVDs. Now think about this, for HD DVD or BD to survive it needs to replace SD DVDs. Blu-Ray can never do this, the prices are just too high and will not be coming down any time soon. If not for HD DVD the PS3 still would be the cheapest BD player you could buy.

Here comes CES. Warner is in the knows HD DVDs ace card. It's the one and only way HDM can quickly replace SD DVD. If it's not stopped HDM has a real chance to overtake SD DVD and is a real threat to Warner's plans to push PPV and on-line movies. I'm talking about the TL51 HD/SD disc.

By choosing BD Warner did everything in it's power to sink the 51 a few days before CES. Was this their plans all along?

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daiello

That works too

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DOWNLOAD: 99

crazyal

It was kind of spur of the moment but kinds of fits together pretty good, lol.

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Chris Gerhard

You lost me right here. Billions have been spent so far and Sony and much of the rest of the BDA won't likely recover their investment and Toshiba has zero chance in my opinon of doing anything now but a very expensive exit. Both formats have done nothing so far but flounder. It is now the hope of the Blu-ray side that some return on investment can be seen going forward but it will be years before the breakeven point will be reached, if ever. If it all was intentional, it was a big fiasco.

In my opinon if only Blu-ray had launched, things would have been so much better for retailers, consumers and all companies involved. Let Toshiba compete to builld the best Blu-ray players at the best price and have all software providers compete to sell the best software is what I wish had happened. I think things would be rocking and rolling right now if that is what had happened.

Chris