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How can HD-DVD win if its selling less disks?

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Old 12-19-2007, 09:52 AM   #1
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Arrow How can HD-DVD win if its selling less disks?

"Despite the introduction of low-cost HD DVD players, Blu-ray disc sales again beat HD DVD for the week ending December 9.

According to Nielsen VideoScan, Blu-ray accounted for 76 percent of all high-def discs sold during the week, compared to just 24 percent for HD DVD.

During the week of Thanksgiving, Blu-ray captured 72.6 percent, compared to 27.4 for HD DVD. And for the year, Blu-ray disc sales are outpacing HD DVD by roughly 65-35."
-----------------------------------------

I'm a business major. Hollywood is all about the money, few companies don't put that as their number one goal. How is it, and I'm not being mean, but how is it that HD-DVD fans can reason that with BluRay selling more disk in the face of its uncompleted spec, lower disk to player ownership and higher cost (although at this point both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD players hitting the $299 level with sales, within the 400 price ceiling most will not cross). So again, how will HD-DVD win? These companies goal is money. So they will go where they can get more of it. If that means a different formate...well then they will. Sooner or later. Just my

But please, enlighten me, am I missing something from the business side of things that could defy what looks like sound logic? And be nice, people take the formate war to personal, when its anything but.
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Old 12-19-2007, 09:58 AM   #2
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It is still early in the format war. Some would love to say that the war will be over soon. It has a long way to go.. sorry BD boyz, but it is true
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Old 12-19-2007, 10:04 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe_news View Post
"Despite the introduction of low-cost HD DVD players, Blu-ray disc sales again beat HD DVD for the week ending December 9.

According to Nielsen VideoScan, Blu-ray accounted for 76 percent of all high-def discs sold during the week, compared to just 24 percent for HD DVD.

During the week of Thanksgiving, Blu-ray captured 72.6 percent, compared to 27.4 for HD DVD. And for the year, Blu-ray disc sales are outpacing HD DVD by roughly 65-35."
-----------------------------------------

I'm a business major. Hollywood is all about the money, few companies don't put that as their number one goal. How is it, and I'm not being mean, but how is it that HD-DVD fans can reason that with BluRay selling more disk in the face of its uncompleted spec, lower disk to player ownership and higher cost (although at this point both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD players hitting the $299 level with sales, within the 400 price ceiling most will not cross). So again, how will HD-DVD win? These companies goal is money. So they will go where they can get more of it. If that means a different formate...well then they will. Sooner or later. Just my

But please, enlighten me, am I missing something from the business side of things that could defy what looks like sound logic? And be nice, people take the formate war to personal, when its anything but.
Well for one thing the PS3 is about 2/3 of the market and even though there are some ok games on it there not any major blockbuster until next year thats when I think were going to start seeing some major fluctuations in BD Disc sells (ie week of MSG4) because of the lack of games many PS3 owner are getting movies to pass the time.

Also we dont know if/how much the studios are making. It seems that HDDVD is cheaper to produce since the regular line that produces DVD can be converted fairly cheaply to make HDDVD. Also the BD50 is being subsidized and produce by sony so there eating the cost but for how long. Plus the BDJ is alot more complex to make then HDi so that will add to the cost.

As a bussiness major you should know that even if you outsell someone you might not make a profit. If bluray lowers the price of disc to $15 and has a $5 lose per disc they will sell more then HDDVD at $30 per disc but the studios are not making any money. And I think thats what they want to do is make money and say that they sold more disc

Last edited by Qbfinest83; 12-19-2007 at 10:08 AM.
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Old 12-19-2007, 10:08 AM   #4
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Plus the BDJ is alot more complex to make then HDi so that will add to the cost
Link please. Is Sun asking for more money than Microsoft?
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Old 12-19-2007, 10:09 AM   #5
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the majority of sales from both sides come from a handful of titiles, like the 300, Transformers, Bond, Bourne, Pirates and Planet Earth to name but a few, IMO these are the titles that will appeal to the Gaming Generation with the possibel exception of P/E and when we start seeing high volumes in titles that are not Blockbuster Titles and see which format they are selling on we will not have a true picture of the format war.

the numbers % wise is meaningless at the moment because of the low numbers of units selling across both formats. If we get to the point that one format is outselling the other by millions of units a week then we can look at the other side maybe conceding. also it wont take much to swing these numbers A huge release like POC3 combined with a BOGO sale will do this. If we see another 76/24 this week with both sides having BOGO and potter on both formats a second week of Pirates with Bourne on HD I would say HD DVD is in big trouble but I doubt the 75/25 trend will continue. if anything HD DVD had been closing the gap recently so we will see what happens.

Also I feel HD DVD is taking this fight slower than Blu Ray and have a better long term plan in place I would not be supprised to see some interesting developemnts in the comming weeks. If HD DVD do get studios to release HD DVD/DVD only releases then are building a future user base. This war is not over just don't always look at the here and now look at the future.
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Old 12-19-2007, 10:12 AM   #6
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Blu-boys are in extreme mode now days
What's with all these War ending announcements threads surfacing again?
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Old 12-19-2007, 10:13 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe_news View Post
"Despite the introduction of low-cost HD DVD players, Blu-ray disc sales again beat HD DVD for the week ending December 9.

According to Nielsen VideoScan, Blu-ray accounted for 76 percent of all high-def discs sold during the week, compared to just 24 percent for HD DVD.

During the week of Thanksgiving, Blu-ray captured 72.6 percent, compared to 27.4 for HD DVD. And for the year, Blu-ray disc sales are outpacing HD DVD by roughly 65-35."
-----------------------------------------

I'm a business major. Hollywood is all about the money, few companies don't put that as their number one goal. How is it, and I'm not being mean, but how is it that HD-DVD fans can reason that with BluRay selling more disk in the face of its uncompleted spec, lower disk to player ownership and higher cost (although at this point both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD players hitting the $299 level with sales, within the 400 price ceiling most will not cross). So again, how will HD-DVD win? These companies goal is money. So they will go where they can get more of it. If that means a different formate...well then they will. Sooner or later. Just my

But please, enlighten me, am I missing something from the business side of things that could defy what looks like sound logic? And be nice, people take the formate war to personal, when its anything but.
Pardon me for saying so, and I seriously mean no personal attack when I say this, but if you are a business major than perhaps it's time to pick up a new major. In a lot of business' you can look at units sold and judge which company is doing better, right?

For example you can instantly look at the number of PC computers sold and completely write off Mac as a viable option right? No. LINK

Well you can look at the Zune media player and instantly say that its a bomb because the Ipod sells so much more right? No. LINK

Well surely, the offbrand car companies, Suzuki and Mitsubishi can't possibly be gaining any ground because they sell no where near the amount of cars that Toyota and GMC does, right? No. LINK

So you say that the format war is way different than all of these applications right? Ya, you are. However, the format war isn't about Blu-ray vs. HD DVD, it is about HDM vs. DVD, one that HDM is soarly losing. Do you really think that Warner Bros. cares about HDM when the sales after 1 1/2 years have floundered? There is a reason why Warner is starting to beef up it's digi-distribution, it's because they are losing faith in both of the formats.
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Old 12-19-2007, 10:13 AM   #8
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Right now it costs about the same to press BDs as it does HD-DVDs at the low volumes they are being produced. (with the cost of the BD manufacturing lines being subsidized.) But when it comes time to press discs in the millions per title, the cost of entry for HD-DVD is very low, and the cost of entry for BD is very high.

I wouldn't expect to see much movement in the disc sales at least until after christmas, when those HD-DVD players are opened and hooked up. How long did it take for the PS3 effect to kick in? We probably won't see the real effect until the spring or beginning of summer.
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Old 12-19-2007, 10:14 AM   #9
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Old 12-19-2007, 10:14 AM   #10
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As a business major, you must also have done your research about how insignificantly small the actual sales numbers (and dollars) the HDM is right now.

When Transformers can sell roughly 8.5 million copies of SD-DVD in one week and HD-DVD only sells roughly 110k-190k in the same time period (a week that was the single best showing for HD-DVD), then for any side to call themselves the "winner" is totally blind.

It will take at least a year or two for the amount of HDTV's and the consumers who want high-def content to really start showing their muscle in purchasing high-def players and movies to make a difference.
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Old 12-19-2007, 10:16 AM   #11
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The goal is to find the format/market that promises the better future growth. I have no idea, with what kind of business plans the studios are predicting this, what goals they are looking to meet, etc.

If you can come up with a hypothesis, that in the future HD DVD will grow faster than Blu-ray and is more likely to gain a good marketshare in the home video market, then you have your answer why someone would support HD DVD.

Such a hypothesis/approach by HD DVD could be:

Get into as many households with HDTVs, that are interested in HDM, as fast as you can. Offer a "low cost" entry level player for the older HDTVs as well. It is very likely, that these households will buy HDM in the future on a constant and predictable basis.

If you look at the ratio of BD hardware in the wild / films on BD sold, you might find that the BDA needs to through out a lot of hardware to outsell HD DVD (yes, its the PS3 and yes, we now might see more and more BD SAL selling) . So HD DVD hardware seems to have more leverage concering disc sales than BD hardware. Looking at how HD DVD hardware has been selling this year, especially Q4, it looks like a very powerful HD DVD userbase is being established. It remains to be seen, if this leads to corresponding software sales in 2008.

If however you believe, that current sales are an indication of where everything is going and basicly nothing else matters, then you probably sleep better supporting Blu-ray.

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Old 12-19-2007, 10:17 AM   #12
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Blu-boys are in extreme mode now days
What's with all these War ending announcements threads surfacing again?
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Welcome to High Def Forum, where every day is a day that a studio might go neutral/exclusive.
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Old 12-19-2007, 10:21 AM   #13
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Link please. Is Sun asking for more money than Microsoft?
Problems With Blu-ray's BD-J Spec Causes Headaches For Early Adopters
http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/movies/pr...ers-266923.php

BD Java problematic on Blu-ray Descent
http://www.videobusiness.com/index.a...leid=CA6407856
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Old 12-19-2007, 10:23 AM   #14
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How can HD-DVD win if its selling less disks?
It won't win.
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Old 12-19-2007, 10:26 AM   #15
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Not to be TOO pedantic, but it's actually "fewer" not "less" and "number" not "amount."

Ilm just sticking up for ancient, prune-faced English teachers everywhere.
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