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Where does Toshiba go if cheap players fail?

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Old 12-01-2007, 06:14 PM   #1
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Default Where does Toshiba go if cheap players fail?

Just thought it'd be interesting to get peoples opinions on where Toshiba can go if cheap players fails to get them any more headway in software sales in 2008.

The way I see it, they need to push out as much hardware over the next 4 weeks as possible, and I don't expect to see much in the way of software sales changes for the remainder of Q4, but if by the end of say January, everything is still 66:34 in favour of Blu-ray and that trend continues... where do Toshiba go from there?

Personally I think they are actually screwed if that turns out to be the case.
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Old 12-01-2007, 06:22 PM   #2
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I would agree only if the number of discs don't increase as well. If the disc sales doubled but stayed at the same ratio, then the PS3 effect may have worked. But I still give the "war" another year before a definate winner is obvious.
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Old 12-01-2007, 06:30 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeRox View Post
Just thought it'd be interesting to get peoples opinions on where Toshiba can go if cheap players fails to get them any more headway in software sales in 2008.

The way I see it, they need to push out as much hardware over the next 4 weeks as possible, and I don't expect to see much in the way of software sales changes for the remainder of Q4, but if by the end of say January, everything is still 66:34 in favour of Blu-ray and that trend continues... where do Toshiba go from there?

Personally I think they are actually screwed if that turns out to be the case.
I don't see a "what if" here. More sales of players means more sales of movies. That is what BD did. Only they dumped a ton of PS3's into the market instead of SAL's so the % being used for BD playback is much lower than an SAL - Sheer numbers.

Toshiba is going to hit their goal - 1 million HD DVD players in NA by 12/31. What are people going to do with them? Just UP DVD? I highly doubt it.

But many may only rent movies instead of buy them. The studios are going to know this. NF and BBI are going to be ordering more movies. That will piss off the studios so they will lower the price of HD DVD's to make them more attractive for sale.

BD SAL's just aren't selling and everyone knows why - too expensive and the profile issue.

Your "what if" will be seen the last week of 2007 - starts in 3 weeks. Let's see what the ratio for that week is. It has been historically the best week of the whole year. HD DVD will have sales and BOGO's just like BD will.

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Old 12-01-2007, 06:40 PM   #4
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I personally down't have alot of dispossable income since im still in training at work, but since getting my HD-dvd player a few weeks ago I have purchased 4 HD-dvd's and IM still waiting for my Ocean's Trilogy to show up. Alot of the recent sales were more than likely opened that day and currently in use. but Im sure a few of them will not be used until dec. 25th. Factor in people getting gift cards to their favorite stores and it should be an very interesting week between christmas and new years. I know I'll be getting the Kingdom at a Minimum.
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Old 12-01-2007, 06:52 PM   #5
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I've noticed they've got some big releases lined up for Dec 26th in The Kingdom and Eastern Promises, I'll be picking up the Heartbreak Kid myself as well.

Not overkill on releases, but much higher quality than we've had of late.
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Old 12-01-2007, 06:55 PM   #6
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I'm not too worried about short term disc sales and thru Jan. '08 is short term. It's been shown thru the Walmart sale that $99 is really the 'sweet spot' for player prices, and I think that will happen by next summer and $99 msrp players will be here by next holiday season (which I think will be the real HD send off season).

A lot depends on if WB will go HD DVD exclusive, but if they don't, it's still impossible for HD DVD to be 'screwed' if they have Universal, Paramount and Dreamworks pumping out exclusive titles that people want. And as long as player sales are steady, HD DVD should have around two million standalones in the market by sometime next year, which I think will be a critical point for consumer adoption.

HD DVD can always resort to BOGOs just like Blu-ray, but they would rather not devalue the perceived disc value of the format. DVDs are getting cheaper than ever (except for new releases) and to start out a format with frequent BOGOs a la Blu-ray is a recipe for failure. They should be used very sparingly and concentrate instead on player penetration. Disc sales will follow naturally.

The major weapon for HD DVD is combo discs (single or double-sided) as it puts DVD and HD DVD as allies against Blu. Combo-only day and date releases will destroy Blu-ray.

The other thing working against Blu-ray is the profile issue, which will really rear its ugly head next year. Except lots of angry consumers and bad press.

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Old 12-01-2007, 07:24 PM   #7
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I don't believe Toshiba will sell 1 million players by 12/31.

I guess we'll find out, though won't we?
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Old 12-01-2007, 07:27 PM   #8
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I don't believe Toshiba will sell 1 million players by 12/31.

I guess we'll find out, though won't we?
Well apparently 25% of the userbase came from Blackfriday alone. So there has certainly been a HUGE jump in HD DVD of late (30% came the week of the first Wal Mart sale) which means in total the stand alone HD DVD userbase has grown 50% in the past month.

It'll be interesting to see how that translates into disc sales next year, but the point of the thread was, if it doesn't translate into a huge boost in disc sales, where will it leave HD DVD?
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Old 12-01-2007, 07:31 PM   #9
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[quote=bruceames;433454]

The major weapon for HD DVD is combo discs (single or double-sided) as it puts DVD and HD DVD as allies against Blu. Combo-only day and date releases will destroy Blu-ray.QUOTE]

Well I hope they do it and do it soon. Gosh it could literally be a kick to the groin and a uppercut combination.
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Old 12-01-2007, 07:40 PM   #10
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I think combo disks actually hurt because they are too expensive. I would say its a rare case when someone buys a combo disk for use in a SD DVD player.
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Old 12-01-2007, 07:44 PM   #11
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If things stayed the same it's still a win for Toshiba. People will just not buy HDM and Toshiba will just collect royaties off of SD DVDs. If (and I think it will) HD DVD continues getting players into the market then sales will follow. The real killer for HD DVD (or Blu-Ray) would be the loss of most or all exclusive studio support.

The real question is what will CEMS (other than Sony and Toshiba) do? I reasonably priced DF player could jumpstart things. IMO Panasonic is too entrenched into the BDA to do it but the others don't seam to be. Remove the "I don't want to choose wrong" from the equation would be a big help to both sides.
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Old 12-01-2007, 07:49 PM   #12
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a DF player at around $299 msrp with sale prices around $199 would be game over. Something even cheaper and people will scoff them up. Then again if toshiba can have a $199 msrp unit thats on sale for $99 from time to time and a solid supply of them, that would help alot as well.
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Old 12-01-2007, 07:50 PM   #13
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I think combo disks actually hurt because they are too expensive. I would say its a rare case when someone buys a combo disk for use in a SD DVD player.
Rare now? Yes. Rare later? No.

The user base is mostly early adopters at this point and the average consumer will value a movie that will play in all their DVD players.

It's false that combos are more expensive.

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Old 12-01-2007, 07:56 PM   #14
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It's false that combos are more expensive.
The titles are not more expensive than other HD-DVD's true, but as an SD DVD purchaser I would typically shop for my new releases with the retailer who had them the cheapest. I would go to cc instead of bb to save 2 bucks. when the Combo are $5-10 more than the SD version, many people who have not adopted will not purchase the combo.
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Old 12-01-2007, 08:08 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeRox View Post
Just thought it'd be interesting to get peoples opinions on where Toshiba can go if cheap players fails to get them any more headway in software sales in 2008.

The way I see it, they need to push out as much hardware over the next 4 weeks as possible, and I don't expect to see much in the way of software sales changes for the remainder of Q4, but if by the end of say January, everything is still 66:34 in favour of Blu-ray and that trend continues... where do Toshiba go from there?

Personally I think they are actually screwed if that turns out to be the case.
They go Blu and wash their hands of Microsoft.
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