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How many players will HD DVD have to sell to gain an exclusive Warner?

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Old 11-30-2007, 01:43 PM   #91
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Originally Posted by Dare View Post
The idea isn't for Warner to go neutral and then the industry stands pat until the end of time. It's about momentum, like dominoes. Universal, Paramount, Warner, then... ? Such momentum is supposed to make other studios think, and possibly act.
You beat me by about 10 seconds.
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Old 11-30-2007, 01:57 PM   #92
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The longer things continue this way the easier it will be for a third party CEM to make a reasonably priced DF player. That's the only end to this war now. Sony has no reason to switch from Blu-Ray. Disney maybe but doesn't look like they will until the CEO is replaced. Fox and Universal (NBC) are probably alwasy going to be on different sides. The HD DVD studios have no reason to change sides either.

We have two formats and will continue down this path until the next gen format(s) come along. I don't know why people trash rentals. Netflix pays about 10x for each SD DVD as to what you could buy it for in the store. After you subtract the cost to make the disc that's probably 15 to 25 times more profit on a rental disc for a studio.

I have to believe that they are selling the HD DVD's at an equal price as SD DVD's (since they don't cost more to rent) so the profit might not be as great but it's still a profit. After all isn't that what Warner (and the others) really looking at?
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Old 11-30-2007, 02:56 PM   #93
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Originally Posted by Dare View Post
The idea isn't for Warner to go neutral and then the industry stands pat until the end of time. It's about momentum, like dominoes. Universal, Paramount, Warner, then... ? Such momentum is supposed to make other studios think, and possibly act.
But not guarantee right? And the BDA would not roll over and die. Nor would Sony who has invested billions in BD.

Fox loves BD+ whether it is cracked or not. Disney loves the bit rate and the disc capacity. Sony is BD and can stay BD exclusive because of the studios they own.

The only answer in the short term is for all studios to go neutral and may the best format win. Which doesn't say much for BD because of the infrastructure that has to be built from the ground up.

And HDM is the next big thing - unfortunately because it is evolutionary and because of the format war - niche - just like LD, which was also the "next big thing."
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Old 11-30-2007, 03:45 PM   #94
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I believe that if/when all studios except Sony Studios go neutral it would only be a matter of time before Sony would HAVE TO go neutral also. They did it with BETA and they will do it again. How much of the total Sony revenue/profit comes from the studio?

It may take some time, but it would most likely happen sooner or later IF all the other studios went with HD DVD.
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Old 11-30-2007, 03:58 PM   #95
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I believe that if/when all studios except Sony Studios go neutral it would only be a matter of time before Sony would HAVE TO go neutral also. They did it with BETA and they will do it again. How much of the total Sony revenue/profit comes from the studio?

It may take some time, but it would most likely happen sooner or later IF all the other studios went with HD DVD.
So really what you are saying is that Universal HAD to go neutral - I mean at one time - they were the only exclusive HD studio?

So what happens if HDM turns out to be a niche? No reason for Sony to go neutral. They will have 10 to 20 million PS3's to cater to.

Gengis Khan said; "It is not important that I win . . . but that you lose."

We are dealing with Asian companies and the founder of Sony said; "Business is War."

NOTHING is cast in stone. Times are not 1985. They are almost 20 years later.

The most successful product in CE History - DVD - lasted all of 8 years before begining it's decline.

"The light that burns twice as bright . . . burns half as long."
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Old 11-30-2007, 04:07 PM   #96
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We just do not know what will happen down the road. All we have is history to look at.

Maybe Sony will figure the PS3 market is enough for them with HDM, but I doubt it. Time will tell.
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Old 11-30-2007, 04:26 PM   #97
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Because 2 major studios previously neutral studios dropping Blu-ray in succession would put a huge ??? over the future of Blu-ray (which up until now every assumes is in the bag) and put yet more positive news behind HD DVD.

The reason everyone from the BDA keeps saying HD DVD won't last much longer, is to put them off buying HD DVD, not to get them to buy Blu-ray. They know HD DVD is in the price range of the average punter, so need to talk them out of buying a HD player at all until BD hardware gets to the same sort of price.

Also, you are aware that is a rental chart, not a puchase chart? WB are responsible for around 36% of the HDM buying market right now.
Thanks, now I don't have to post the same thing!

This is EXACTLY my point.
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Old 11-30-2007, 04:29 PM   #98
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I disagree with that part. If WB would stop being weenies and pick a side, everyone would benefit, including the customers and studios that chose the other format, ultimately.
Well, sure...ultimately.

But I wouldn't want to hear that BDA/Darth Vader "NOOOOOO!"
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Old 11-30-2007, 05:09 PM   #99
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Well, sure...ultimately.

But I wouldn't want to hear that BDA/Darth Vader "NOOOOOO!"
Well, you can't make an omlette without breaking some eggs, and such.
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Old 11-30-2007, 05:17 PM   #100
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But not guarantee right? And the BDA would not roll over and die. Nor would Sony who has invested billions in BD.

Fox loves BD+ whether it is cracked or not. Disney loves the bit rate and the disc capacity. Sony is BD and can stay BD exclusive because of the studios they own.

The only answer in the short term is for all studios to go neutral and may the best format win. Which doesn't say much for BD because of the infrastructure that has to be built from the ground up.

And HDM is the next big thing - unfortunately because it is evolutionary and because of the format war - niche - just like LD, which was also the "next big thing."
Nothing is guaranteed of course. There are many steps to finishing the format war. Somebody just has to suck it up and take the first one.

If all studios go neutral, except for Sony, Blu-ray wins. Blu-ray becomes the format with every studio, and HD-DVD does not. In that scenario, save your pennies, because you're going blu. In the end, whether the few HDM consumers get dual format players or Blu-ray players, the studios will not be neutral forever. They will pick one side. They will go Blu. Now, I know you don't want that.

Perhaps then, HDM will be allowed to gain mass acceptance, and be the next big thing. Unlike LD, which was the next big thing that never happened.
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Old 11-30-2007, 05:19 PM   #101
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We just do not know what will happen down the road. All we have is history to look at.

Maybe Sony will figure the PS3 market is enough for them with HDM, but I doubt it. Time will tell.
But is that history relevant? Are things the same?

I don't see that at all. You didn't need an expensive TV to enjoy either VHS, LD or DVD. So this fact changes everything. It is no longer apples to apples.

Yes - time will tell - but the old adage of "look back to the past to foretell the future may not apply."
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Old 11-30-2007, 05:28 PM   #102
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Nothing is guaranteed of course. There are many steps to finishing the format war. Somebody just has to suck it up and take the first one.

If all studios go neutral, except for Sony, Blu-ray wins. Blu-ray becomes the format with every studio, and HD-DVD does not. In that scenario, save your pennies, because you're going blu. In the end, whether the few HDM consumers get dual format players or Blu-ray players, the studios will not be neutral forever. They will pick one side. They will go Blu. Now, I know you don't want that.

Perhaps then, HDM will be allowed to gain mass acceptance, and be the next big thing. Unlike LD, which was the next big thing that never happened.
I agree that we are between a rock and a hard place. But I don't agree with your outcome. You are not taking into account all the different companies that are involved in DVD and HD DVD and of course BD - but to a much lesser extent because of the fact that an HD DVD is nothing more than a "fancy" DVD. BD on the other hand is all brand new,

You are not going to say to 200 companies that in total have invested billions of dollars in buiilding the infrastructure for DVD . . . sorry guys - you have to replace everything. Or sorry guys - you have to spend 10's of millions of dollars to add BD to your plants.

There is NO BD hybrid like a Combo or a Twin.

If there was a "meeting of the minds" and all the pressure fell on Sony - their stockholders would oust the current mamagement and put in management that understood that BD will be for PS3 games and the Pro/Broadcast Video market and maybe even for recording. But the next Home Video Format will be HD DVD.
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Old 11-30-2007, 05:40 PM   #103
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I agree that we are between a rock and a hard place. But I don't agree with your outcome. You are not taking into account all the different companies that are involved in DVD and HD DVD and of course BD - but to a much lesser extent because of the fact that an HD DVD is nothing more than a "fancy" DVD. BD on the other hand is all brand new,

You are not going to say to 200 companies that in total have invested billions of dollars in buiilding the infrastructure for DVD . . . sorry guys - you have to replace everything. Or sorry guys - you have to spend 10's of millions of dollars to add BD to your plants.

There is NO BD hybrid like a Combo or a Twin.

If there was a "meeting of the minds" and all the pressure fell on Sony - their stockholders would oust the current mamagement and put in management that understood that BD will be for PS3 games and the Pro/Broadcast Video market and maybe even for recording. But the next Home Video Format will be HD DVD.
I agree. It should be that way. HD-DVDs are easier to manufacture with higher yields and less investment (or re-investment). That's exactly why HD-DVD exclusive studios wouldn't go neutral and why Warner should toss Blu-ray. But for some reason, Warner is hanging onto that straw. They are the next domino, and beyond all logic, they are not falling. It's like they want Blu-ray, and want everyone else to adopt it too, in spite of the huge expense it would take to create BD lines that serve more than recordable discs and PS3 games. It's like they don't want to encourage BD exclusive studios to consider HD-DVD, and give it the momentum it needs. It's like they don't want HDM to gain wide acceptance. For what? So they don't look like the bad guys for this brief moment in time?
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Old 11-30-2007, 05:57 PM   #104
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I agree. It should be that way. HD-DVDs are easier to manufacture with higher yields and less investment (or re-investment). That's exactly why HD-DVD exclusive studios wouldn't go neutral and why Warner should toss Blu-ray. But for some reason, Warner is hanging onto that straw. They are the next domino, and beyond all logic, they are not falling. It's like they want Blu-ray, and want everyone else to adopt it too, in spite of the huge expense it would take to create BD lines that serve more than recordable discs and PS3 games. It's like they don't want to encourage BD exclusive studios to consider HD-DVD, and give it the momentum it needs. It's like they don't want HDM to gain wide acceptance. For what? So they don't look like the bad guys for this brief moment in time?
IMO - the studios desperately want DNL/VOD. This to them is the apex of profit. Cut everyone out of the food chain. All these companies making money on their hard earned dollar and their efforts:

Studio > Delivery Company (small fee) > Consumer

And no physical product. Only one expense - the transfer. Sure they would have to maintain a few IT disc farms. Cheap compared to the cost of pressing and packaging and delivery of current product.

Last year consumers spent about $24 Billion on DVD. So how much did the studios actually get of that and how much of their share was real profit?

The big issue is the infrastructure and I did show you that things are changing.

If their ultimate goal is to get rid of the media - then a format war is good for them . . .

It buys them time.
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Old 11-30-2007, 07:11 PM   #105
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I think the $$$ involved in the Adult industry will play a major role that no one wants to talk about. I saw a report from cnet.com that said the adult industry has more yearly revenue than the NFL and NBA combined. Thats insain. Most Blu-ray disks are manufactured by Disney and they as well as sony have refused to produce the titles for the adult studios...Once that niche of the format takes off its over.
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