Black Friday: The HD DVD Barbarian Attack

neal77 · 11-05-2007, 05:23 PM

I did look for this post and couldn't find it but if someone did post this already... sorry

We've known for some time that there would be a lot of low-cost HD DVD players driven into the market during the critical Christmas buying season. We were expecting it to be off-brand Chinese players, but it looks like Toshiba products are the ones that will be hitting stores in massive volumes in prices ranging from $170 to $200 for their previous- and current-generation low-end HD DVD products.

Of course, if you were awake last Friday, you saw that Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) blew out the Toshiba A2 products at $99 a pop. I'm writing this Thursday night, but I expect the stores will sell through inventory before you read this.

This makes the new steady price for the low end (after last weekend) of the Toshiba line under $200, and this puts the still expected Chinese products at an even lower price point and that is a considerable amount of price pressure on the approximately twice-as-expensive Blu-ray offerings.

If, as we understand, the new A3 Toshiba products do drop below $200, they have a decent built-in DVD up-converter and that would make them a really good buy even though they only go up to 1080i. The format actually looks better than the more expensive 1080p player on a 1080p set because of the superior de-interlacing technology in most 1080p sets.

This creates a sustaining insider bargain, one where people in the know get just what a huge value this is. If that perception is widely held, the folks who sell these things -- including Wal-Mart, which cornered the DVD market years ago -- will likely set sales records now that both K-Mart and Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) have jumped on board. Hint: It appears Amazon will have them at a sub-$170 price.

Adding to the drama is the rumor that Warner Home Entertainment is planning to go exclusive with one platform. It will be basing its decision on how many of these inexpensive players are sold. Initially, WHE was releasing titles in HD DVD only.

We'll know in a few weeks, but the fact that Disney (NYSE: DIS) is anything but happy doesn't bode well for Blu-ray. When executives start blustering like this it isn't a good sign.

I think this last paragraph is very interesting...

http://www.technewsworld.com/story/L...eek-60141.html

brenner · 11-05-2007, 05:55 PM

A quote from Bob Chapek, president of Disney Studios Home Entertainment:
"And we firmly believe that revolutionary technology, my friends, is indisputably, undeniably and inevitably Blu-ray."

What a dunderhead!

gallandro · 11-05-2007, 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by neal77

We'll know in a few weeks, but the fact that Disney (NYSE: DIS) is anything but happy doesn't bode well for Blu-ray. When executives start blustering like this it isn't a good sign.

I think this last paragraph is very interesting...

http://www.technewsworld.com/story/L...eek-60141.html

Well yea. Let's see Disney has firmly entrenched themselves with a format whose primary backer, Sony, promised everyone that the PS3 would shoot them through the roof and would make them king of high-def media. We were told (along with Disney) in December 2006 that the format war was over with the initial sales of the PS3. Fast forward two months later and sales of the PS3 begin to drop off radically.

With the release of the PS3 BD begins to take over, and at times dominates high-def disc sales. But curiously, no titles are selling boffo numbers like Sony promised. In fact, Disney's flagship franchise series Pirates of the Caribbean manages to see a whopping 40,000 copies of Pirates I&II combined their first week. Pathetically, these are still Disney's best selling titles to date. Then we find out at CEDIA, that even though both formats have been out for a year and a half (to that date), both formats combined have barely sold over 3 million discs which really make claims of out selling the competitor nearly 2:1 pretty goofy (pun intended).

Now, contrast this with what has happened the last couple of weeks. Transformers (an HD-DVD exclusive title) dominates HD sales and even manages to outsell Disney's "Meet the Robinsons" it's second week of release. Add to this Disney giving up profits in a Buy One Get One Free BD campaign just so Blu-Ray sales could look respectable the week of "Transformers" release... talk about ego.

And now we get pre-Black Friday Black Friday which clearly moved A LOT of units for Toshiba. Disney has to know the pain is coming again on the actual Black Friday, and God only knows what else Toshiba is planning throughout the Holiday season. I'm sure someone inside the House of the Mouse is probably starting to at least question their decision to remain BD exclusive.

It's pretty obvious now that HD-DVD is going to be the first to hit the magic number of 1 million standalones (not game consoles). I can't wait for the annual Disney shareholders meeting in March when HD disc sales are probably more like 50:50 and shareholders (not CEOs and company suits... regular Joes) start asking "why aren't we supporting that other format, the players seem to be selling well?" Rob Iger is going to be squirming...

Yancy

DSNY FN · 11-05-2007, 06:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gallandro

Well yea. Let's see Disney has firmly entrenched themselves with a format whose primary backer, Sony, promised everyone that the PS3 would shoot them through the roof and would make them king of high-def media. We were told (along with Disney) in December 2006 that the format war was over with the initial sales of the PS3. Fast forward two months later and sales of the PS3 begin to drop off radically.

With the release of the PS3 BD begins to take over, and at times dominates high-def disc sales. But curiously, no titles are selling boffo numbers like Sony promised. In fact, Disney's flagship franchise series Pirates of the Caribbean manages to see a whopping 40,000 copies of Pirates I&II combined their first week. Pathetically, these are still Disney's best selling titles to date. Then we find out at CEDIA, that even though both formats have been out for a year and a half (to that date), both formats combined have barely sold over 3 million discs which really make claims of out selling the competitor nearly 2:1 pretty goofy (pun intended).

Now, contrast this with what has happened the last couple of weeks. Transformers (an HD-DVD exclusive title) dominates HD sales and even manages to outsell Disney's "Meet the Robinsons" it's second week of release. Add to this Disney giving up profits in a Buy One Get One Free BD campaign just so Blu-Ray sales could look respectable the week of "Transformers" release... talk about ego.

And now we get pre-Black Friday Black Friday which clearly moved A LOT of units for Toshiba. Disney has to know the pain is coming again on the actual Black Friday, and God only knows what else Toshiba is planning throughout the Holiday season. I'm sure someone inside the House of the Mouse is probably starting to at least question their decision to remain BD exclusive.

It's pretty obvious now that HD-DVD is going to be the first to hit the magic number of 1 million standalones (not game consoles). I can't wait for the annual Disney shareholders meeting in March when HD disc sales are probably more like 50:50 and shareholders (not CEOs and company suits... regular Joes) start asking "why aren't we supporting that other format, the players seem to be selling well?" Rob Iger is going to be squirming...

Yancy

I will be at this meeting as a shareholder and I am going to bring this up and ask for some accountability as to why they are sticking with one format and not maximizing their revenue like they reported they would last year at the meeting. I will then bring up the holiday season sales on HD DVD hardware and software a glaring mistake they missed the boat on.

phearcat · 11-05-2007, 06:35 PM

If they can sell 99 dollar Toshiba players on Black Friday then they are going to have to start selling those chinese knock off brands like around 99 dollars everyday. No way can they get away with charging 200 for them now.

gallandro · 11-05-2007, 06:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DSNY FN

I will be at this meeting as a shareholder and I am going to bring this up and ask for some accountability as to why they are sticking with one format and not maximizing their revenue like they reported they would last year at the meeting. I will then bring up the holiday season sales on HD DVD hardware and software a glaring mistake they missed the boat on.

I have two friends from the Mice Chat message boards who will be doing the same thing. They are both long-time friends of mine and both own fairly good sized shares of Disney stock. The were completely perplexed by management's decision to stick with one format... they both felt that Disney should have remained neutral all along to maximize profits.

I suspect this will increasingly become more of a bone of contention with shareholders as the months wear on.

Yancy

gallandro · 11-05-2007, 06:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by phearcat

If they can sell 99 dollar Toshiba players on Black Friday then they are going to have to start selling those chinese knock off brands like around 99 dollars everyday. No way can they get away with charging 200 for them now.

I suspect the $99 price will end up sticking for the remaining A2s in inventory after Black Friday... the A3 will probably be VERY cheap (around $150) in December.

Toshiba is playing for keeps here, and I'm not so sure Sony can keep up as they are pushing the PS3 as the #1 Blu-Ray player on the market.

Yancy

Super XP · 11-05-2007, 06:41 PM

The Lord of the Rings Trilogy HD DVD - Cover Art...

http://www.highdefforum.com/showthre...875#post408875

MikeRox · 11-05-2007, 06:50 PM

as said in the other thread SuperXP, it's fake.

As for Disney, well it's their loss atm. It seems retarded to not support HD DVD right now when it's by far the best poised to capture the market.

Super XP · 11-05-2007, 06:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by neal77

I did look for this post and couldn't find it but if someone did post this already... sorry

We've known for some time that there would be a lot of low-cost HD DVD players driven into the market during the critical Christmas buying season. We were expecting it to be off-brand Chinese players, but it looks like Toshiba products are the ones that will be hitting stores in massive volumes in prices ranging from $170 to $200 for their previous- and current-generation low-end HD DVD products.

Of course, if you were awake last Friday, you saw that Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) blew out the Toshiba A2 products at $99 a pop. I'm writing this Thursday night, but I expect the stores will sell through inventory before you read this.

This makes the new steady price for the low end (after last weekend) of the Toshiba line under $200, and this puts the still expected Chinese products at an even lower price point and that is a considerable amount of price pressure on the approximately twice-as-expensive Blu-ray offerings.

If, as we understand, the new A3 Toshiba products do drop below $200, they have a decent built-in DVD up-converter and that would make them a really good buy even though they only go up to 1080i. The format actually looks better than the more expensive 1080p player on a 1080p set because of the superior de-interlacing technology in most 1080p sets.

This creates a sustaining insider bargain, one where people in the know get just what a huge value this is. If that perception is widely held, the folks who sell these things -- including Wal-Mart, which cornered the DVD market years ago -- will likely set sales records now that both K-Mart and Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) have jumped on board. Hint: It appears Amazon will have them at a sub-$170 price.

Adding to the drama is the rumor that Warner Home Entertainment is planning to go exclusive with one platform. It will be basing its decision on how many of these inexpensive players are sold. Initially, WHE was releasing titles in HD DVD only.

We'll know in a few weeks, but the fact that Disney (NYSE: DIS) is anything but happy doesn't bode well for Blu-ray. When executives start blustering like this it isn't a good sign.

I think this last paragraph is very interesting...

http://www.technewsworld.com/story/L...eek-60141.html

So the A2 & A3 are amazing buys especially if you have a good 1080p HDTV.

Also, I wonder if Disney would come on board with HD DVD in a neutral stance?

mshulman · 11-05-2007, 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brenner

A quote from Bob Chapek, president of Disney Studios Home Entertainment:
"And we firmly believe that revolutionary technology, my friends, is indisputably, undeniably and inevitably Blu-ray."

What a dunderhead!

If its so superior and revolutionary, then it seems the tour they have should have an HD DVD display set up right next to blu-ray and blu-ray's superiority should be shown. Somehow, I don't think they hvae any HD DVD setup as part of their display though

People might see the truth!

**bruceames** · 11-05-2007, 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gallandro

Well yea. Let's see Disney has firmly entrenched themselves with a format whose primary backer, Sony, promised everyone that the PS3 would shoot them through the roof and would make them king of high-def media. We were told (along with Disney) in December 2006 that the format war was over with the initial sales of the PS3. Fast forward two months later and sales of the PS3 begin to drop off radically.

With the release of the PS3 BD begins to take over, and at times dominates high-def disc sales. But curiously, no titles are selling boffo numbers like Sony promised. In fact, Disney's flagship franchise series Pirates of the Caribbean manages to see a whopping 40,000 copies of Pirates I&II combined their first week. Pathetically, these are still Disney's best selling titles to date. Then we find out at CEDIA, that even though both formats have been out for a year and a half (to that date), both formats combined have barely sold over 3 million discs which really make claims of out selling the competitor nearly 2:1 pretty goofy (pun intended).

Now, contrast this with what has happened the last couple of weeks. Transformers (an HD-DVD exclusive title) dominates HD sales and even manages to outsell Disney's "Meet the Robinsons" it's second week of release. Add to this Disney giving up profits in a Buy One Get One Free BD campaign just so Blu-Ray sales could look respectable the week of "Transformers" release... talk about ego.

And now we get pre-Black Friday Black Friday which clearly moved A LOT of units for Toshiba. Disney has to know the pain is coming again on the actual Black Friday, and God only knows what else Toshiba is planning throughout the Holiday season. I'm sure someone inside the House of the Mouse is probably starting to at least question their decision to remain BD exclusive.

It's pretty obvious now that HD-DVD is going to be the first to hit the magic number of 1 million standalones (not game consoles). I can't wait for the annual Disney shareholders meeting in March when HD disc sales are probably more like 50:50 and shareholders (not CEOs and company suits... regular Joes) start asking "why aren't we supporting that other format, the players seem to be selling well?" Rob Iger is going to be squirming...

Yancy

That's one helluva fine post, guy.

I think Disney signed up for the PS3 effect and now that it fizzled, they're probably having second thoughts now, in spite of the rhetoric. I give them until next summer (or fall) to go HD DVD. By then HD DVD should have about 2 million standalones and I feel that's the critical penetration number to get all the BD exclusive studios squirming.

Super XP · 11-05-2007, 07:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brenner

A quote from Bob Chapek, president of Disney Studios Home Entertainment:
"And we firmly believe that revolutionary technology, my friends, is indisputably, undeniably and inevitably Blu-ray."

What a dunderhead!

**PFC5** · 11-05-2007, 09:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mshulman

If its so superior and revolutionary, then it seems the tour they have should have an HD DVD display set up right next to blu-ray and blu-ray's superiority should be shown. Somehow, I don't think they hvae any HD DVD setup as part of their display though

People might see the truth!

They would just rig the HD DVD player to look awful by outputting 480i like Best Buy used to do. That is the way it seems the blu companies operate.

SLedford · 11-05-2007, 10:06 PM

The Best Buy in Little Rock has both formats on display, and they finally have them hooked up correctly. They both look terrific. While they are not side by side, they are only a few aisles apart.

So this store has not done anything to mess up the picture on either format. The slight favoritism for BD shows up in the amount of space devoted to HD-DVD movies vs the slightly larger shelf space devoted to BD. Also the aisle display for BD is in a much better location than the HD-DVD display.

Overall, I would say that this BB is very close to being format neutral.

Where BD will have problems is when John Doe brings Jane Doe to BB to buy a high def movie player. There is a $170 HD-DVD player just a few aisles from the $350 BD player. Jane cannot see any difference in the picture quality and some of the same movies are available in both formats.

Jane is not really excited about buying either format. If you think the $170 HD-DVD player is a tough sell, try getting her to approve the $350 BD player.

When the BD standards are finalized and the price drops some more I will pick up a BD player and BD movies. In the meantime, I am not buying SD-DVD movies that are BD only in high def because I don't want to double dip. I an willing to wait to get the movies in high def only, so my stance is hurting the BD only studios. Fortunately for them, I am probably not the norm in this matter.

IMO if BD cannot answer the price challenge from HD-DVD they will eventually lose more studios. If they lose studios, the incentive for John Doe to buy a BD player drops, since he can now get more of the same movies in HD-DVD.

If studios start changing sides this could unravel quickly and badly for BD.

11-05-2007, 05:55 PM	#2
brenner HD Rules Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Vancouver, USA Age: 58 Posts: 2,006	A quote from Bob Chapek, president of Disney Studios Home Entertainment: "And we firmly believe that revolutionary technology, my friends, is indisputably, undeniably and inevitably Blu-ray." What a dunderhead! __________________ Pioneer Elite Pro FHD-1 LG LSS-3200A Satellite Box Pioneer CLD-97 LD Player w/AC-3 mod Toshiba HD-XA2 HD DVD player Onkyo DV-HD805 HD DVD player Monitor S series speakers Velodyne Mini-Vee Yamaha RX-V1800 receiver MX-850 Aeros Remote

11-05-2007, 06:35 PM	#5
phearcat Me So HD Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: The OC Age: 39 Posts: 698	If they can sell 99 dollar Toshiba players on Black Friday then they are going to have to start selling those chinese knock off brands like around 99 dollars everyday. No way can they get away with charging 200 for them now. __________________ 50" Pioneer Plamsa pdp-5070hd HDTV XBox 360 Elite (HDMI) w/HD-DVD XBL: Phear Cat Nintendo Wii HD DVD: 41

11-05-2007, 06:41 PM	#8
Super XP Star Trek: The Movie! Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Toronto, ON. Canada Posts: 5,776	The Lord of the Rings Trilogy HD DVD - Cover Art... http://www.highdefforum.com/showthre...875#post408875 __________________ Toshiba Regza 46" HDTV (46RF350U) LCD 1080p/24p Toshiba HD-A35 / HD-A3 / XD-E500 LG GGC-H20L Super Multi / PC Drive Onkyo TX-SR605 7.1 TrueHD/DTS HD MA Precision Acoustics™ 8Ch. Hi Def Loudspeaker Series DVD's = 200 = 130 = 10

11-05-2007, 06:50 PM	#9
MikeRox Blu Blu Skies! :D Join Date: May 2007 Location: Huddersfield, United Kingdom Posts: 12,416	as said in the other thread SuperXP, it's fake. As for Disney, well it's their loss atm. It seems retarded to not support HD DVD right now when it's by far the best poised to capture the market. __________________ REGION B 4TW! Latest HD additions - I Love You Man - 17 Again - Born on the 4th of July - Paul Blart: Mall Cop - Monsters, Inc. HD Movies - Um... Lost count >_< bout 250 Latest Gaming Additions - Mirrors Edge - Scene It BOS - Wartech: Senko No Ronde - Lego Indiana Jones/Kung Fu Panda 2 pack - Silent Hill

11-05-2007, 10:06 PM	#15
SLedford HD Fan Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Little Rock, Arkansas Posts: 1,023	Side by side HD-DVD & BD comparisons The Best Buy in Little Rock has both formats on display, and they finally have them hooked up correctly. They both look terrific. While they are not side by side, they are only a few aisles apart. So this store has not done anything to mess up the picture on either format. The slight favoritism for BD shows up in the amount of space devoted to HD-DVD movies vs the slightly larger shelf space devoted to BD. Also the aisle display for BD is in a much better location than the HD-DVD display. Overall, I would say that this BB is very close to being format neutral. Where BD will have problems is when John Doe brings Jane Doe to BB to buy a high def movie player. There is a $170 HD-DVD player just a few aisles from the $350 BD player. Jane cannot see any difference in the picture quality and some of the same movies are available in both formats. Jane is not really excited about buying either format. If you think the $170 HD-DVD player is a tough sell, try getting her to approve the $350 BD player. When the BD standards are finalized and the price drops some more I will pick up a BD player and BD movies. In the meantime, I am not buying SD-DVD movies that are BD only in high def because I don't want to double dip. I an willing to wait to get the movies in high def only, so my stance is hurting the BD only studios. Fortunately for them, I am probably not the norm in this matter. IMO if BD cannot answer the price challenge from HD-DVD they will eventually lose more studios. If they lose studios, the incentive for John Doe to buy a BD player drops, since he can now get more of the same movies in HD-DVD. If studios start changing sides this could unravel quickly and badly for BD. __________________ Toshiba 57H83 television, Paradigm Monitor 5 front speakers, Paradigm CC370 center speaker, Paradigm Mini Monitor surround speakers, Sony subwoofer, Yamaha HRT-5590 receiver, Denon DVD-2800 II, Toshiba HD-DVD A2, Play Station 3 - 40 Gig, Comcast HD Cable

11-05-2007, 05:23 PM	#1
neal77 High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: L.A. California Posts: 495	Black Friday: The HD DVD Barbarian Attack I did look for this post and couldn't find it but if someone did post this already... sorry We've known for some time that there would be a lot of low-cost HD DVD players driven into the market during the critical Christmas buying season. We were expecting it to be off-brand Chinese players, but it looks like Toshiba products are the ones that will be hitting stores in massive volumes in prices ranging from $170 to $200 for their previous- and current-generation low-end HD DVD products. Of course, if you were awake last Friday, you saw that Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) blew out the Toshiba A2 products at $99 a pop. I'm writing this Thursday night, but I expect the stores will sell through inventory before you read this. This makes the new steady price for the low end (after last weekend) of the Toshiba line under $200, and this puts the still expected Chinese products at an even lower price point and that is a considerable amount of price pressure on the approximately twice-as-expensive Blu-ray offerings. If, as we understand, the new A3 Toshiba products do drop below $200, they have a decent built-in DVD up-converter and that would make them a really good buy even though they only go up to 1080i. The format actually looks better than the more expensive 1080p player on a 1080p set because of the superior de-interlacing technology in most 1080p sets. This creates a sustaining insider bargain, one where people in the know get just what a huge value this is. If that perception is widely held, the folks who sell these things -- including Wal-Mart, which cornered the DVD market years ago -- will likely set sales records now that both K-Mart and Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) have jumped on board. Hint: It appears Amazon will have them at a sub-$170 price. Adding to the drama is the rumor that Warner Home Entertainment is planning to go exclusive with one platform. It will be basing its decision on how many of these inexpensive players are sold. Initially, WHE was releasing titles in HD DVD only. We'll know in a few weeks, but the fact that Disney (NYSE: DIS) is anything but happy doesn't bode well for Blu-ray. When executives start blustering like this it isn't a good sign. I think this last paragraph is very interesting... http://www.technewsworld.com/story/L...eek-60141.html __________________ HD-DVDS: 155 DVD's: 1,800 SHARP 52" 52d92u LCD TV XBOX360 ELITE HD-DVD ADD ON Toshiba A30

Similar Threads to Black Friday: The HD DVD Barbarian Attack
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
You CANNOT get the new HD channels with an HR10-250	lizardhowson	DirecTV Forum	111	07-20-2009 11:49 PM
HD DVD Combo's - What Went Wrong?	Lee Stewart	High Definition Media	109	05-19-2008 08:01 PM
Why Intel is supporting HD DVD	bruceames	HD DVD Players	19	02-06-2008 04:43 PM
HDMI 1.3 - Is It Necessary?	Lee Stewart	High Definition Media	35	01-24-2008 10:40 PM
My top ten reasons why HD DVD will come back	bruceames	HD DVD Players	87	08-22-2007 09:11 PM