Why I think Blu Ray will win the Format War

mshulman · 11-08-2007, 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PFC5

Just remember that bet with DolbyBlu Lee!

I think you are sure to win it.

I notice we haven't really heard much from him lately.. Maybe he bought one of the $99 players and is too busy watching HD DVD's to chat?

Lee Stewart · 11-08-2007, 08:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PFC5

Just remember that bet with DolbyBlu Lee!

I think you are sure to win it.

I know I have not forgotten....and I am sure that he has not either.

Mike in Philly · 11-18-2007, 07:16 PM

I agree that Movies are what "count". After being in Target and Best Buy over the weekend, it was clear that more movies are on display in Blu-ray. A lot of folks keep the talk going about how "expensive" Blu-ray is to manufacture. Well, since Blu-ray plays regular dvds, what will happen to manufacturing costs and end retail prices of players when Sony, Samsung, Panasonic, Denon, Sharp and others put a stop to making $59 dollar DVD players and ONLY make Blu-ray on their production lines??? Exactly!!!, the cost of the players will come done and compete alongside of HD-DVD or should I say Toshiba.

mshulman · 11-18-2007, 07:20 PM

Movies count, but both sides have them. I've been buying movies that I want. I might own another 4-5 blu-ray titles if they had been included in the BOGO, but I'm waiting for those. And if I already hadn't spent so much the past few weeks, I'd also own a few more HD DVD's.

So in my case, its pretty evenly spread between the two.

I prefer HD DVD for its interactivity, better mandatory specs and price. I also like the idea of combos/twins and I think they are great for consumers.

syntfyd · 11-19-2007, 11:07 AM

Nice article with a lot of info!
Bottom line is when it comes to the majority of consumers, VALUE ALWAYS WINS! The Betamax was clearly a better picture and sound yet it lost the video war of the 80's and Sony lost alot of money!
Live and Learn!
The next concept is right around the corner anyways so whoever wins, it will be a short victory!

Lee Stewart · 11-19-2007, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by syntfyd

Nice article with a lot of info!
Bottom line is when it comes to the majority of consumers, VALUE ALWAYS WINS! The Betamax was clearly a better picture and sound yet it lost the video war of the 80's and Sony lost alot of money!
Live and Learn!
The next concept is right around the corner anyways so whoever wins, it will be a short victory!

What ever money Sony lost with the Beta versus VHS war they made up 10 fold when Beta became the industry standard for Pro/Broadcast Video

8ch-DeeorDie · 11-19-2007, 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike in Philly

I agree that Movies are what "count". After being in Target and Best Buy over the weekend, it was clear that more movies are on display in Blu-ray. A lot of folks keep the talk going about how "expensive" Blu-ray is to manufacture. Well, since Blu-ray plays regular dvds, what will happen to manufacturing costs and end retail prices of players when Sony, Samsung, Panasonic, Denon, Sharp and others put a stop to making $59 dollar DVD players and ONLY make Blu-ray on their production lines??? Exactly!!!, the cost of the players will come done and compete alongside of HD-DVD or should I say Toshiba.

By that time though, the HD-DVD triple-layer Twin format should be in full production. At that point, you will have a consumer that will say," wait a minute, I have to buy ANOTHER disc (Blu-ray) to watch the high-def version? "

With the Twin Format, it is ONE purchase of software. Play the same movie in any player (including Blu-ray, which I think will be hilarious).

Besides, "IF" the other Blu-ray CE's did start making only Blu-ray players to decrease the price, don't you think that Toshiba would just lower their price anyway? I mean, the A3 is at $169-$199 right now. It could easily go down another $100 in the future to match any Blu-ray price drop.

junehhan · 11-19-2007, 08:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike in Philly

I agree that Movies are what "count". After being in Target and Best Buy over the weekend, it was clear that more movies are on display in Blu-ray. A lot of folks keep the talk going about how "expensive" Blu-ray is to manufacture. Well, since Blu-ray plays regular dvds, what will happen to manufacturing costs and end retail prices of players when Sony, Samsung, Panasonic, Denon, Sharp and others put a stop to making $59 dollar DVD players and ONLY make Blu-ray on their production lines??? Exactly!!!, the cost of the players will come done and compete alongside of HD-DVD or should I say Toshiba.

Profit maximizing firms simply don't do that unless they are trying to maximize market share. We know that BDP's cost so much per unit to build, and that economies of scale might help out if they no longer made any DVD players. Of course, we are forgetting with this that DVD players are NOT going to be discontinued anytime soon. Even if economies of scale help, it still won't do a thing about the costs of the components themselves. A firm is also not going to be able to violate the laws of supply and demand as they can produce a heck of a lot of product, but that doesn't mean a thing if the demand isn't there. If they overproduce, then they could ultimately end up selling them below cost. We are also forgetting that even if economies of scale happen for the BD manufacturers, Toshiba would not be exempt from this either as the AVERAGE cost per unit would also fall for HD-DVD.

Lee Stewart · 11-19-2007, 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by junehhan

Profit maximizing firms simply don't do that unless they are trying to maximize market share. We know that BDP's cost so much per unit to build, and that economies of scale might help out if they no longer made any DVD players. Of course, we are forgetting with this that DVD players are NOT going to be discontinued anytime soon. Even if economies of scale help, it still won't do a thing about the costs of the components themselves. there. If they A firm is also not going to be able to violate the laws of supply and demand as they can produce a heck of a lot of product, but that doesn't mean a thing if the demand isn't overproduce, then they could ultimately end up selling them below cost. We are also forgetting that even if economies of scale happen for the BD manufacturers, Toshiba would not be exempt from this either as the AVERAGE cost per unit would also fall for HD-DVD.

Are you discussing the PS3? Sure sounds like it

**PFC5** · 11-20-2007, 03:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike in Philly

I agree that Movies are what "count". After being in Target and Best Buy over the weekend, it was clear that more movies are on display in Blu-ray. A lot of folks keep the talk going about how "expensive" Blu-ray is to manufacture. Well, since Blu-ray plays regular dvds, what will happen to manufacturing costs and end retail prices of players when Sony, Samsung, Panasonic, Denon, Sharp and others put a stop to making $59 dollar DVD players and ONLY make Blu-ray on their production lines??? Exactly!!!, the cost of the players will come done and compete alongside of HD-DVD or should I say Toshiba.

You are forgetting the biggest reason that those BD only player mfg CHOSE BD though. They chose it so they could keep higher margins, and not lose sales to the Chinese mfg.

What you are suggesting would just defeat the major reason they CHOSE BD. Other than Sony & Panasonic, none of the other mfg of BD players have much at stake in losing money on players to promote a format with minimum/zero royalties for them.

Super XP · 11-20-2007, 06:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PFC5

You are forgetting the biggest reason that those BD only player mfg CHOSE BD though. They chose it so they could keep higher margins, and not lose sales to the Chinese mfg.

What you are suggesting would just defeat the major reason they CHOSE BD. Other than Sony & Panasonic, none of the other mfg of BD players have much at stake in losing money on players to promote a format with minimum/zero royalties for them.

So is that why Panasonic talked harshly about HD DVD with more of their opinionated FUD which they love to make people think its Fact?

Sometimes I wonder about Panasonic

They are a good company on the wrong side IMO.

Dare · 11-20-2007, 09:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PFC5

You are forgetting the biggest reason that those BD only player mfg CHOSE BD though. They chose it so they could keep higher margins, and not lose sales to the Chinese mfg.

Those higher margins are a pipe dream. How did they think they could sustain that with a mainstream format? The only way to keep margins high is to keep it in the enthusiast space, and if it stays there it dies.

Nikopol · 11-20-2007, 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dare

Those higher margins are a pipe dream. How did they think they could sustain that with a mainstream format? The only way to keep margins high is to keep it in the enthusiast space, and if it stays there it dies.

I think the idea was to repeat the first years of CD and DVD players, where prices were quite high as they usually are in the early years of a format. Just a few good years to make money, before the inevitable price erosion starts.

Repeat this idea with profile 1.1 players and then 2.0 players.

btw i´ve started watching the price of the LG GGC-H20L combo drive, inspired by your avatar.

Dare · 11-20-2007, 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nikopol

btw i´ve started watching the price of the LG GGC-H20L combo drive, inspired by your avatar.

It isn't just the price, it's the availability. You have to get lucky to find one in stock anywhere. They're selling faster than LG can make them. And LG doesn't even acknowledge that they exist on their website. The encouraging thing is that it doesn't burn high-def discs, so there's only one reason to get one of these drives.

It costs twice what my HD-DVD drive cost me, but since it's a dual format drive, I think it's worth it. Next year, assuming LG catches up with the demand, these drives should be dirt cheap.

Nikopol · 11-20-2007, 09:49 AM

(sorry for

)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dare

It isn't just the price, it's the availability. You have to get lucky to find one in stock anywhere. They're selling faster than LG can make them. And LG doesn't even acknowledge that they exist on their website. The encouraging thing is that it doesn't burn high-def discs, so there's only one reason to get one of these drives.

It costs twice what my HD-DVD drive cost me, but since it's a dual format drive, I think it's worth it. Next year, assuming LG catches up with the demand, these drives should be dirt cheap.

Heh heh, i´ve seen that. This is a (german) link to compare the prices and availability
http://geizhals.at/deutschland/a287916.html
and almost all retailers have it "on order" or "out of stock"

I guess i´ll wait for it to come down to ~ 200 Euros next year and then i´ll set up a nice, purple region free *wink, wink* pc.

11-18-2007, 07:20 PM	#64
mshulman My Projector is High Def. Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Marlborough, MA Age: 35 Posts: 6,572	Movies count, but both sides have them. I've been buying movies that I want. I might own another 4-5 blu-ray titles if they had been included in the BOGO, but I'm waiting for those. And if I already hadn't spent so much the past few weeks, I'd also own a few more HD DVD's. So in my case, its pretty evenly spread between the two. I prefer HD DVD for its interactivity, better mandatory specs and price. I also like the idea of combos/twins and I think they are great for consumers. __________________ Toshiba HD-A2 and HD-A3 PS3 Sanyo PLV-Z3 Canon HF-10 Onkyo 805 "I eat green berets for breakfast and I'm very hungry!"

11-19-2007, 11:07 AM	#65
syntfyd High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 106	Its only a temporary win if any! Nice article with a lot of info! Bottom line is when it comes to the majority of consumers, VALUE ALWAYS WINS! The Betamax was clearly a better picture and sound yet it lost the video war of the 80's and Sony lost alot of money! Live and Learn! The next concept is right around the corner anyways so whoever wins, it will be a short victory! __________________ Span the distance, store resistance, to reverse is to retreat!

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11-18-2007, 07:16 PM	#63
Mike in Philly High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 100	I agree that Movies are what "count". After being in Target and Best Buy over the weekend, it was clear that more movies are on display in Blu-ray. A lot of folks keep the talk going about how "expensive" Blu-ray is to manufacture. Well, since Blu-ray plays regular dvds, what will happen to manufacturing costs and end retail prices of players when Sony, Samsung, Panasonic, Denon, Sharp and others put a stop to making $59 dollar DVD players and ONLY make Blu-ray on their production lines??? Exactly!!!, the cost of the players will come done and compete alongside of HD-DVD or should I say Toshiba.