Why I think Blu Ray will win the Format War

Lee Stewart · 10-16-2007, 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oblioman

Dead wrong. You do not need new pressing plants (replication facilities) to produce BD discs. The replication facilities must re-tool to stamp out either BD or HD-DVD. It is more expensive to tool up for BD than it is to tool up for HD-DVD since a majority of the process for HD DVD is still old, or used processes. As for replication cost's, the last me has seen is that it is cheaper to replicate a single layer 25gig BD disc than it is to replicate a dual layer HD DVD disc. If anybody has new reliable numbers, please share them.

As for needing new plants to replicate BD's, the answer is no. As for replicating HD DVD's, on the most basic, yes they be cheaper to replicate. But since HD DVd is now stamping on 30 gig DL discs, and preaching 51 gig triple layer discs, me can only see HD DVD's replication cost's going up. Especially since the 51gig disc is yet unproven (but it's a finished product,right?). Answer me this - For the same pic & audio quality, would you rather have a DL disc or a triple layer disc?

Where did you get your information? A BD pressing plant can ONLY press BD's. The entire line must be brand new.

A DVD pressing plant just makes a simple and inexpensive change to the tooling to start pressing HD DVD's.

DVD's and HD DVD's have a yield of approx. 95% while BD has a yield of 80%. That is a terrible yield rate. 1 out of every 5 discs is garbage and cannot be sold.

And you keep making these wild assed conjectures and speculations about the TL51 whithout a shred of proof of any kind. Why are you doing this?

Super XP · 10-16-2007, 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nikopol

Yes, what you are describing and experiencing for yourself is the "PS3-effect" by which the BDA was hoping to win the 'format-bitchslap' in a landslide. So far, it doesn´t look like this has come to pass with the magnitude that was hoped for. I wonder when it will start to happen.....

Like I've said many times, Sony relying on the PS3 to save Blu-Ray is pathetic & desperate.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

Where did you get your information? A BD pressing plant can ONLY press BD's. The entire line must be brand new.

A DVD pressing plant just makes a simple and inexpensive change to the tooling to start pressing HD DVD's.

DVD's and HD DVD's have a yield of approx. 95% while BD has a yield of 80%. That is a terrible yield rate. 1 out of every 5 discs is garbage and cannot be sold.

And you keep making these wild assed conjectures and speculations about the TL51 whithout a shred of proof of any kind. Why are you doing this?

He is doing this because he along with many other BD fanboys ran out of ideas in how to hammer HD DVD to the wall. This is my opinion, but just read around, it’s becoming really irritating & ridiculous with these stupid self inflicted rumours.

The scary thing is when un-educated people that do not know the technology side of Hi Def read this garbage & take it to heart. Then make the wrong decision about which format to support.

brian451 · 10-16-2007, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by venomxr8

lol, what a rediculous post, like it or not, the ps3 is a blu ray player.Yes 99% of people that purchase one MOST LIKELY will get one with the INTENTION of using it for games but eventually when the HD movie industry begins to grow and gain momentum and becomes more widespread people with ps3's may either rent or buy a HD movie to see what the fuss is about, and obviously with a ps3 they will try out a blu ray movie.This usually leads to a few movie purchases and/or rentals and eventually when its time to buy a standalone it will be a blu ray player purely because they r familiar with the product. Im a perfect example, I considered myself a gamer owning pretty much all systems (xbox, gamecube, ps2, xbox360, Wii) and had no interest in HD movies. After I got my ps3 and free copy of Casino Royale by signing up to the ps3 network, well, lets just say now with over 50+ blu rays, im hooked. Its a snowball effect and one which will cause the HD DVD camp alot of headaches. IMO if microsoft incorporated a HD DVD drive in the Xbox 360 itself from the beginning things could've been a lot different and blu ray might not have gotten off the ground.

you totally ignored my point...so answer this one simple question. of all the dvds played over the past ten years by everyone on the planet, what percentage do you think were watched on a ps2. if you say it's more than 1%, then you are fooling yourself. if you agree that it's less than 1% and still think the ps3 is something movie studios care about in the long term, then you're fooling yourself again

mshulman · 10-16-2007, 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cbcdesign

No business spends money on new plants if they can simply retrofit existing ones. Sony are in business to make money not waste it building unnecessary production facilities. I very much doubt if Toshiba are building new HD DVD plants, but then they don't need to do they?

I think Sony needed a new plant more than Toshiba does. Are DVD sales on a great decline?

If not, then you really don't want to reduce your DVD production. Plus, all PS3 games are on blu-ray - this alone is probably a reason to have a new production facility.

Bunter · 11-08-2007, 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nikopol

Yes, what you are describing and experiencing for yourself is the "PS3-effect" by which the BDA was hoping to win the 'format-bitchslap' in a landslide. So far, it doesn´t look like this has come to pass with the magnitude that was hoped for. I wonder when it will start to happen.....

The PS3 effect DID cloud things for a long while.

However, it is becoming more and more clear that Sony may have pulled a complicated double feat: losing both the gaming AND the home video wars by including BR in the PS3.

If Spidy-3 sales are any indication, the PS3 effect is fading fast!

MikeRox · 11-08-2007, 12:07 PM

I do think we need to see how well Ratatouille and Pirates 3 perform first. But on first appearances, it would certainly seem that while HD DVD has grown significantly since 300's release. Blu-ray hasn't grown in the slightest.

mshulman · 11-08-2007, 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeRox

I do think we need to see how well Ratatouille and Pirates 3 perform first. But on first appearances, it would certainly seem that while HD DVD has grown significantly since 300's release. Blu-ray hasn't grown in the slightest.

That's not really accurate.

Both formats have been growing. Blu-ray has been growing at twice the rate of HD DVD, which is why its kept its 2:1.

What we can guess is that if both have been growing at say 10% a month, that HD DVD has increased their growth possibly to 18-20% a month while Blu-ray has remained 10%.

Just looking at the ratings the past two weeks with blu-ray having a minimal lead would seem to support this - although the percentages are certainly not likely accurate.

**PFC5** · 11-08-2007, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mshulman

That's not really accurate.

Both formats have been growing. Blu-ray has been growing at twice the rate of HD DVD, which is why its kept its 2:1.

What we can guess is that if both have been growing at say 10% a month, that HD DVD has increased their growth possibly to 18-20% a month while Blu-ray has remained 10%.

Just looking at the ratings the past two weeks with blu-ray having a minimal lead would seem to support this - although the percentages are certainly not likely accurate.

You and many others REALLY need to stop using that 2:1 ratio. It is wrong in the last few months, and is getting closer every week. I know it is easier to just use the old number so you don't have to look up the latest numbers, but please stop posting 2:1 as it is wrong and misleading. I know that is not your intention but when you do it others just keep reepeating the same wrong ratio.

Just for the record, it is more like 1.5:1 in the last month or so I believe.

Lee Stewart · 11-08-2007, 12:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PFC5

You and many others REALLY need to stop using that 2:1 ratio. It is wrong in the last few months, and is getting closer every week. I know it is easier to just use the old number so you don't have to look up the latest numbers, but please stop posting 2:1 as it is wrong and misleading. I know that is not your intention but when you do it others just keep reepeating the same wrong ratio.

Just for the record, it is more like 1.5:1 in the last month or so I believe.

The only real number that has any meaning is YTD. It reflects ALL sales over the time period of the year so it will not be subject to particular title spikes.

And I believe it is 64/36. Or is it 65/35? no matter - close enough.

Neither are 2 to 1 as pointed out.

GLOW · 11-08-2007, 01:18 PM

I agree with Lee. YTD and SI numbers are all that matter.

mshulman · 11-08-2007, 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PFC5

You and many others REALLY need to stop using that 2:1 ratio. It is wrong in the last few months, and is getting closer every week. I know it is easier to just use the old number so you don't have to look up the latest numbers, but please stop posting 2:1 as it is wrong and misleading. I know that is not your intention but when you do it others just keep reepeating the same wrong ratio.

Just for the record, it is more like 1.5:1 in the last month or so I believe.

Yes, I keep forgetting.

And Lee, YTD is not the only number that has meaning. YTD tells us nothing about either formats growth.

As I've said in previous threads, growth is the most important thing for either format. If any studio thinks new titles will only do 200k sales, they'll drop the format today. New titles should and need to keep breaking records. Its the growth that is far more important in the long run.

Lee Stewart · 11-08-2007, 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mshulman

Yes, I keep forgetting.

And Lee, YTD is not the only number that has meaning. YTD tells us nothing about either formats growth.

As I've said in previous threads, growth is the most important thing for either format. If any studio thinks new titles will only do 200k sales, they'll drop the format today. New titles should and need to keep breaking records. Its the growth that is far more important in the long run.

On the contrary . . YTD is the best indicator. It is what it is. The fact that it has remained the same for the entire 10 months just shows that neither format is making any leaps and bounds so far. An excellent read of the format war.

mshulman · 11-08-2007, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

On the contrary . . YTD is the best indicator. It is what it is. The fact that it has remained the same for the entire 10 months just shows that neither format is making any leaps and bounds so far. An excellent read of the format war.

It's an excellent read that shows they are both growing at the same rate as each other, or simply not growing at all. Title sales tell us they are growing though.

I still think knowing at what percentage they are growing would be good info. Is HDM growing at 10% a month? More? Less?

If HD DVD starts to even the score and titles sell 1:1, and then HD DVD moves to be 1.5:1, how much more has HD DVD grown? Or did blu-ray slip?

The sales ratio's we see, only give us one piece of information - who's sold more titles. It gives us no basis for determining why someone sold more or less. Growth does. Maybe the past 2 weeks were even because blu-ray sold less titles?

Or do we have info on the total number of discs sold per month by format? If we do, that's all we need - I just haven't seen those numbers.

Lee Stewart · 11-08-2007, 02:41 PM

If you saw (as we have seen) the sales numbers per title - you would fear that HDM is a total failure.

Sure we have these high profile titles like 300 or TF's or SPM3. Well what about the other 600+ titles? Their sales are abysmil . . . 2000 . . . 3000 . . . 5000.

The only way to affect the YTD ratio is to sell a ton of discs . . . which has yet to happen because we don't have a ton of players in the wild.

IF . . . a format could start selling like gangbusters then the YTD will start to move . . . which it hasn't.

Each week HD DVD does better than 65/35 - it affects the YTD. The more 55/45 weeks - the more the YTD will start to shift in the same direction.

Unfortunately the average week for BOTH formats is about 60,000 disc sold . . . which is approx 1 - 2% of the YTD number - not enough to make it move.

Whcih means that sales are very low . . which we know.

**PFC5** · 11-08-2007, 05:47 PM

Just remember that bet with DolbyBlu Lee!

I think you are sure to win it.

11-08-2007, 12:07 PM	#51
MikeRox Blu Blu Skies! :D Join Date: May 2007 Location: Huddersfield, United Kingdom Posts: 12,416	I do think we need to see how well Ratatouille and Pirates 3 perform first. But on first appearances, it would certainly seem that while HD DVD has grown significantly since 300's release. Blu-ray hasn't grown in the slightest. __________________ REGION B 4TW! Latest HD additions - I Love You Man - 17 Again - Born on the 4th of July - Paul Blart: Mall Cop - Monsters, Inc. HD Movies - Um... Lost count >_< bout 250 Latest Gaming Additions - Mirrors Edge - Scene It BOS - Wartech: Senko No Ronde - Lego Indiana Jones/Kung Fu Panda 2 pack - Silent Hill

11-08-2007, 01:18 PM	#55
GLOW PUBLIC ENEMY #1 Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Chi 'til I die Age: 30 Posts: 7,647	I agree with Lee. YTD and SI numbers are all that matter. __________________ "In wine there is wisdom, in beer there is freedom, in water there is bacteria." - Benjamin Franklin

11-08-2007, 05:47 PM	#60
PFC5 Super Moderator Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 28,359	Just remember that bet with DolbyBlu Lee! I think you are sure to win it. __________________ Denon AVR-887 Klipsch RP-5 Pwred Towers (mains) (525 watts peak each 12"Subs) All Klipsch RC-25(ctr),(2)SS1(surr),(2)SS1(rearSurr) Toshiba (2)HD-A20,PS3,BD35 For SACD/DVD-A Samsung HD-841 Panny 50pz80u plasma SETTINGS RCA HD50LPW162 50"DLP w/HD2+ SA 3250HD 47" LCD+Yamaha5790+HD-A1(bedroom) Harmony 680 + (2) 670s (amazing remote/support) Game room with Onkyo receiver & B&W Speakers The_Cable_Game Take the high ground and be happier

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11-08-2007, 02:41 PM	#59
Lee Stewart Behold - the future! Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Albuquerque, NM Age: 58 Posts: 25,188	If you saw (as we have seen) the sales numbers per title - you would fear that HDM is a total failure. Sure we have these high profile titles like 300 or TF's or SPM3. Well what about the other 600+ titles? Their sales are abysmil . . . 2000 . . . 3000 . . . 5000. The only way to affect the YTD ratio is to sell a ton of discs . . . which has yet to happen because we don't have a ton of players in the wild. IF . . . a format could start selling like gangbusters then the YTD will start to move . . . which it hasn't. Each week HD DVD does better than 65/35 - it affects the YTD. The more 55/45 weeks - the more the YTD will start to shift in the same direction. Unfortunately the average week for BOTH formats is about 60,000 disc sold . . . which is approx 1 - 2% of the YTD number - not enough to make it move. Whcih means that sales are very low . . which we know.