Why I think Blu Ray will win the Format War

oblioman · 10-16-2007, 05:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cbcdesign

One of the biggest flaws with Blu-ray is the fact that it requires brand new pressing plants to manufacture the disks whereas HD DVD can be made in existing DVD manufacturing facilities once the equipment has been modified.

Like it or not, HD has to survive alongside DVD for the forseable future and that means manufacturing facilities need to be able to press both HD DVD and DVD disks to turn a profit until HD disks are sold in higher numbers.

It's so much easier and cheaper to produce HD DVD that all blu-ray can do is hinder the rate at which HD DVD can replace DVD. I don't see any possibility of Blu-ray becoming the "standard" under these circumstances. Blu-ray need consumers to abandon DVD and move exclusively to their new format and that is not going to happen any time soon.

Sony are the only company investing in these new expensive blu-ray installations so far and we are already seeing delay after delay as they struggle to produce reliable disks and they invented the format!

Studios will become increasingly frustrated with the problems that the blu-ray manufacturing process exhibits and it will only take one or two more neutral studios to go HD DVD exclusive to cripple Blu-ray entirely.

I appreciate your thoughts but studios couldn't care less about bit rates and capacity. What they care about is profit just like every other business and they can make a lot more money with HD DVD than they can with blu-ray.

I don't know who will win but I honestly don't believe things are going well for blu-ray and I will be very surprised if they can.

Dead wrong. You do not need new pressing plants (replication facilities) to produce BD discs. The replication facilities must re-tool to stamp out either BD or HD-DVD. It is more expensive to tool up for BD than it is to tool up for HD-DVD since a majority of the process for HD DVD is still old, or used processes. As for replication cost's, the last me has seen is that it is cheaper to replicate a single layer 25gig BD disc than it is to replicate a dual layer HD DVD disc. If anybody has new reliable numbers, please share them.

As for needing new plants to replicate BD's, the answer is no. As for replicating HD DVD's, on the most basic, yes they be cheaper to replicate. But since HD DVd is now stamping on 30 gig DL discs, and preaching 51 gig triple layer discs, me can only see HD DVD's replication cost's going up. Especially since the 51gig disc is yet unproven (but it's a finished product,right?). Answer me this - For the same pic & audio quality, would you rather have a DL disc or a triple layer disc?

oblioman · 10-16-2007, 05:40 AM

PFC & Stew - you both read this man reply,,,,why did you both not set him/her straight??? No drinks on me for the month.....

brian451 · 10-16-2007, 06:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by venomxr8

Actually I Accept the facts, and all facts point to a blu ray victory. And in reply to Brian451, with all of the ps3's being sold around the world, even if 1 in 4 buyers (25%) adopt HD movies, which format do you think they will go for??? kind of makes the stand alone player sales numbers a moot point as in the grand scheme of things the sales for stand alones have been poor for BOTH formats

so how many people do you know buy a ps2 to watch a movie...how many ps2 have been sold in the last 10 years versus dvd players...come on man get real...ps3 is a game system just like ps2

Stew4HD · 10-16-2007, 07:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oblioman

PFC & Stew - you both read this man reply,,,,why did you both not set him/her straight??? No drinks on me for the month.....

LOL, damn, i am thirsty! I don't argue the guy cuz it is info I am not well versed on. If I knew more about the real details, I would be able to comment.

so n so · 10-16-2007, 07:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brian451

so how many people do you know buy a ps2 to watch a movie...how many ps2 have been sold in the last 10 years versus dvd players...come on man get real...ps3 is a game system just like ps2

I doubt anyone was s*lly enough to buy a PS2 as a DVD player but many have purchased the PS3 as a Blu player and many more to do the same with $400 PS3's on the way...

MikeRox · 10-16-2007, 07:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oblioman

PFC & Stew - you both read this man reply,,,,why did you both not set him/her straight??? No drinks on me for the month.....

I don't know the ins and outs of disc pressing, but everything I've read on the matter states the same. HD DVD is a line "upgrade" Blu Ray is an entirely new line. Have you got a link to something that states otherwise? That has been long pimped as a pro of HD DVD in making it mainstream. It will be far easier for pressers to upgrade for HD DVD than Blu RAy.

Also HD DVD lines can still continue to press DVDs with a retool, while Blu Ray lines can only ever produce Blu Ray discs (and any future update from Blu Ray) but will never be able to be used to produce DVDs.

venomxr8 · 10-16-2007, 08:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brian451

so how many people do you know buy a ps2 to watch a movie...how many ps2 have been sold in the last 10 years versus dvd players...come on man get real...ps3 is a game system just like ps2

lol, what a rediculous post, like it or not, the ps3 is a blu ray player.Yes 99% of people that purchase one MOST LIKELY will get one with the INTENTION of using it for games but eventually when the HD movie industry begins to grow and gain momentum and becomes more widespread people with ps3's may either rent or buy a HD movie to see what the fuss is about, and obviously with a ps3 they will try out a blu ray movie.This usually leads to a few movie purchases and/or rentals and eventually when its time to buy a standalone it will be a blu ray player purely because they r familiar with the product. Im a perfect example, I considered myself a gamer owning pretty much all systems (xbox, gamecube, ps2, xbox360, Wii) and had no interest in HD movies. After I got my ps3 and free copy of Casino Royale by signing up to the ps3 network, well, lets just say now with over 50+ blu rays, im hooked. Its a snowball effect and one which will cause the HD DVD camp alot of headaches. IMO if microsoft incorporated a HD DVD drive in the Xbox 360 itself from the beginning things could've been a lot different and blu ray might not have gotten off the ground.

MikeRox · 10-16-2007, 08:20 AM

It's not so ridiculous.

Unless they're being actively used in 2008 as Blu Ray players and contributing to disc sales, they're moot for the forseeable future.

**bruceames** · 10-16-2007, 08:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oblioman

You do not need new pressing plants (replication facilities) to produce BD discs.

You do need new (expensive) replication equipment. But you're right, you don't need new pressing plants. You can put new equipment into an existing building (as long as there's space). Tricky, tricky!

Nikopol · 10-16-2007, 08:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by venomxr8

lol, what a rediculous post, like it or not, the ps3 is a blu ray player.Yes 99% of people that purchase one MOST LIKELY will get one with the INTENTION of using it for games but eventually when the HD movie industry begins to grow and gain momentum and becomes more widespread people with ps3's may either rent or buy a HD movie to see what the fuss is about, and obviously with a ps3 they will try out a blu ray movie.This usually leads to a few movie purchases and/or rentals and eventually when its time to buy a standalone it will be a blu ray player purely because they r familiar with the product. Im a perfect example, I considered myself a gamer owning pretty much all systems (xbox, gamecube, ps2, xbox360, Wii) and had no interest in HD movies. After I got my ps3 and free copy of Casino Royale by signing up to the ps3 network, well, lets just say now with over 50+ blu rays, im hooked. Its a snowball effect and one which will cause the HD DVD camp alot of headaches. IMO if microsoft incorporated a HD DVD drive in the Xbox 360 itself from the beginning things could've been a lot different and blu ray might not have gotten off the ground.

Yes, what you are describing and experiencing for yourself is the "PS3-effect" by which the BDA was hoping to win the 'format-bitchslap' in a landslide. So far, it doesn´t look like this has come to pass with the magnitude that was hoped for. I wonder when it will start to happen.....

Stew4HD · 10-16-2007, 08:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by venomxr8

lol, what a rediculous post, like it or not, the ps3 is a blu ray player.Yes 99% of people that purchase one MOST LIKELY will get one with the INTENTION of using it for games but eventually when the HD movie industry begins to grow and gain momentum and becomes more widespread people with ps3's may either rent or buy a HD movie to see what the fuss is about, and obviously with a ps3 they will try out a blu ray movie.This usually leads to a few movie purchases and/or rentals and eventually when its time to buy a standalone it will be a blu ray player purely because they r familiar with the product. Im a perfect example, I considered myself a gamer owning pretty much all systems (xbox, gamecube, ps2, xbox360, Wii) and had no interest in HD movies. After I got my ps3 and free copy of Casino Royale by signing up to the ps3 network, well, lets just say now with over 50+ blu rays, im hooked. Its a snowball effect and one which will cause the HD DVD camp alot of headaches. IMO if microsoft incorporated a HD DVD drive in the Xbox 360 itself from the beginning things could've been a lot different and blu ray might not have gotten off the ground.

Would you be saying that if there were actually a GOOD list of games for the PS3? Sony has already lost that part of things, so BD playback is just about all that there is left.

MS was not trying to make an all in one player. Why should they? The 360 is a GAMING machine first and foremost.

You can just sit back and love your PS3 and the BD format all you want. But you have quickly learned that tossing your BS here gets slapped quick, from other PS3 owners too!

mshulman · 10-16-2007, 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oblioman

Dead wrong. You do not need new pressing plants (replication facilities) to produce BD discs. The replication facilities must re-tool to stamp out either BD or HD-DVD. It is more expensive to tool up for BD than it is to tool up for HD-DVD since a majority of the process for HD DVD is still old, or used processes. As for replication cost's, the last me has seen is that it is cheaper to replicate a single layer 25gig BD disc than it is to replicate a dual layer HD DVD disc. If anybody has new reliable numbers, please share them.

As for needing new plants to replicate BD's, the answer is no. As for replicating HD DVD's, on the most basic, yes they be cheaper to replicate. But since HD DVd is now stamping on 30 gig DL discs, and preaching 51 gig triple layer discs, me can only see HD DVD's replication cost's going up. Especially since the 51gig disc is yet unproven (but it's a finished product,right?). Answer me this - For the same pic & audio quality, would you rather have a DL disc or a triple layer disc?

When seen this argued plenty of times now. There is a difference between making some improvements of a product vs working on the basic specifications of it.

Adding a disc that has greater capacity and that is compatbile is far from having produced and sold players that simple won't work with the new features on future discs.

cbcdesign · 10-16-2007, 11:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeRox

I don't know the ins and outs of disc pressing, but everything I've read on the matter states the same. HD DVD is a line "upgrade" Blu Ray is an entirely new line. Have you got a link to something that states otherwise? That has been long pimped as a pro of HD DVD in making it mainstream. It will be far easier for pressers to upgrade for HD DVD than Blu RAy.

Also HD DVD lines can still continue to press DVDs with a retool, while Blu Ray lines can only ever produce Blu Ray discs (and any future update from Blu Ray) but will never be able to be used to produce DVDs.

Thank you Mike.

In fact it wasn't that long ago that an announcement was made regarding the completion of a brand new Sony Blu-ray pressing plant. This in itself proves that the re-tool theory doesn't hold water. Sony would hardly have bothered making such a huge investment if they could simply upgrade existing plants.

To answer your question regarding DL or triple layer disks, I couldn't really care less what type of disk it is as long as the PQ and AQ are good. Incidently, the 51Gbyte disks was always on the cards.

The specs for all the HD DVD players mentioned triple layer playing capabilities long before they announced the approval by the DVD Forum. Unlike Sony who are constantly re-developing their specs as they realise Toshiba's format has better on-line features amoungst others, HD DVD was designed some time ago and approved long before it went into production. In this regard HD DVD is "The" finished product.

mshulman · 10-16-2007, 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cbcdesign

Thank you Mike.

In fact it wasn't that long ago that an announcement was made regarding the completion of a brand new Sony Blu-ray pressing plant. This in itself proves that the re-tool theory doesn't hold water. Sony would hardly have bothered making such a huge investment if they could simply upgrade existing plants.

I don't think Sony opening a new plant proves anything.

DVD's are still being made, PS2 games are still being made..etc. If you retool one of those lines, you are reducing your DVD/PS2 production. Opening a new line keeps existing production capacity in place and gives you new capacity for blu-ray.

cbcdesign · 10-16-2007, 11:44 AM

No business spends money on new plants if they can simply retrofit existing ones. Sony are in business to make money not waste it building unnecessary production facilities. I very much doubt if Toshiba are building new HD DVD plants, but then they don't need to do they?

Similar Threads to Why I think Blu Ray will win the Format War
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Getting a hd dvd on blu ray	oleviarules	The High Definition Lounge	10	11-27-2007 08:51 PM
Mistakes you feel your format of choice has made in the War.	El Despairado	High Definition Media	25	09-12-2007 09:31 AM
Blu Ray asks Tohishiba to Join Blu Ray Group	phearcat	HD DVD Players	18	09-10-2007 03:12 PM
Blu-Ray Bill Hunt - At It Again - Part 3	Lee Stewart	High Definition Media	48	06-13-2007 08:32 AM
xbox 360 might play blu ray	PINGMAN	Gaming & Systems	0	03-27-2007 05:01 PM

10-16-2007, 05:40 AM	#32
oblioman OTIS,,me hero Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Someville TN Posts: 4,569	PFC & Stew - you both read this man reply,,,,why did you both not set him/her straight??? No drinks on me for the month.....

10-16-2007, 08:20 AM	#38
MikeRox Blu Blu Skies! :D Join Date: May 2007 Location: Huddersfield, United Kingdom Posts: 12,417	It's not so ridiculous. Unless they're being actively used in 2008 as Blu Ray players and contributing to disc sales, they're moot for the forseeable future.

10-16-2007, 11:44 AM	#45
cbcdesign High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: North Somerset, UK Posts: 1,314	No business spends money on new plants if they can simply retrofit existing ones. Sony are in business to make money not waste it building unnecessary production facilities. I very much doubt if Toshiba are building new HD DVD plants, but then they don't need to do they?