Why I think Blu Ray will win the Format War

venomxr8 · 10-14-2007, 11:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bruceames

Paramount didn't think so. They felt Blu-ray as a format was too expensive to use compared to HD DVD. Having a major studio replicate on a new format for over a year and then ditch it due to cost and performance (like not being ready for prime time) issues leaves a black mark on the format and informed consumers will wonder 'who's next?' (which studio is going to abandon Blu-ray next?). Therefore, Blu-ray has become the riskier of the formats and its future is more uncertain.

On the other hand, HD DVD has been ready from day 1 and there players are far less expensive. The A2, for example, can be found for under $200 now. It's too bad Blu-ray is going to arrive late to the 'party' and will end up being the third wheel, relegated to niche status, while DVD and HD DVD being the dominate formats, with HD DVD slowly taking over for DVD.

Twin format disc, with DVD and HD DVD on the same side, will be a big hit with consumers and will allow a smooth transition between old format and new. Blu-ray does not offer this flexibility.

In the end, all the studios will use HD DVD because they will have the dominate ST player base and Blu-ray exclusive studio will no longer be able to ignore this as they grow over 2 million strong (probably by the end of next year)

Do you think that the 150 million dollar incentive to go HD DVD exclusive could have also helped Paramount make this decision????

Also In reply to the argument that HD DVD sells more stand alone players than Blu Ray, my response is that the movie studios only look at the amount of movies sold in which Blu Ray has the clear advantage. Do you think that universal/paramount/dreamworks make money on every HD DVD player sold, no they make money on every one of their movies that are sold, thats all they care about and if your selling more movies on one particular format then thats where the money is.

**bruceames** · 10-15-2007, 12:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by venomxr8

Do you think that the 150 million dollar incentive to go HD DVD exclusive could have also helped Paramount make this decision????

Also In reply to the argument that HD DVD sells more stand alone players than Blu Ray, my response is that the movie studios only look at the amount of movies sold in which Blu Ray has the clear advantage. Do you think that universal/paramount/dreamworks make money on every HD DVD player sold, no they make money on every one of their movies that are sold, thats all they care about and if your selling more movies on one particular format then thats where the money is.

Yes, but I don't believe it was the biggest factor. Paramount was very clear and articulate on why they left Blu-ray. I know all the Blu-ray fans want to believe it was all about the money and it's OK with me if they (you) want to think that. It's kinda like getting dumped by your girlfriend, you don't want to believe it was due to your shortcomings.

Studios look at movies sold but also set top player sales as a basis of future disc sales. They have to look at the 'big picture' and the PS3 is really not (much of) a part of that.

ECam43 · 10-15-2007, 05:38 AM

Based on what Mr. Venomxr8 has posted, and for sure he has put a lot of time and effort into his post, it seems to me that although HD-DVD came to the party early, it's the late comer blu-ray that caused eyebrows to raise when she entered the room. And I'm not sure what advantage a double-duty DVD and HD-DVD disk would offer, because when I go HD, I'm going to do it all at once. I don't quite understand the advantage of a "smooth transition"to HD, unless you think the movie studios are going to develop the dual disk technology and then dump it in 5 years when most hoseholds are viewing all their movies in HD. Because once you have seen an movie in HD...well, need I say more.

truba11a · 10-15-2007, 06:04 AM

blu-ray wont lose its just like in the beginning of anything new thas ever been invented nobody wants anything to do with it but overtime when prices come down IMO hd dvds will eventually make regular dvds disappear then eventually bluray will take hd dvds place but this most likely will take 30 years or so i mean VCRs and VHS tapes STILL exist not many but it still exists

Nikopol · 10-15-2007, 07:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by venomxr8

[...]

Now to start my argument lets look at the two discs themselves:

[....]

As you can see Blu Ray Discs can hold more storage capacity and can transfer video/audio data at a higher rate then HD DVD resulting in the ability for studio’s to release their movies on Blu Ray with higher quality video and audio than the HD-DVD format. Some examples of HD DVD’s storage capacity and bitrates hampering the format can be seen in the upcoming releases of Transformers and Shrek 3. These two movies which are going to be the two biggest on HD DVD for some time don’t feature lossless (or Hi Def) audio. Now when I purchase a so called “hi def” movie, I as a consumer expect to get what I spent my hard earned dollars for, a “hi def” movie, as in hi definition video AND AUDIO and HD DVD cannot provide it. Now you may have heard reports that the HD DVD camp has developed a 51 GB disc that may “solve” this problem but unfortunately even these discs WILL NOT improve the video/audio transfer rate and also there are reports that they won’t work on a first gen HD DVD player so therefore are not worth factoring into the equation. On the other side, Hitachi has in development, a 100 GB Blu Ray disc that has been reported to only need a firmware update to be compatible in current blu ray players. Storage space also becomes a factor for the home video enthusiast; with new Blu Ray PC Burners now available (and with more on the way) consumers can create their own HD movies in the comfort of home.

One thing: I´m interested in HDM to succeed as a mainstream format, not as a niche format. Amongst other reasons, i doubt we would see a great number of titles, if HDM stays in a small niche. To give you an example, i love music and constantly buy new cds, but the titles available on SACD or DVD-A that are of interest to me are maybe five to ten (i never bothered to get a player because of that). No niche for me please.

For me, space is a non issue because it can be solved by splitting the film onto two discs or building a bigger disc. Non issue for me.

So yes, BR has more bandwidth and in digital video, that is a potential for a slightly better pq.

On what points/observation/facts do you base your opinion, that HD DVD's video bitrate is not 100% sufficient to provide an excellent HiDef experience? Even BR supporters say, that you need a really big and good setup to notice the differences between BR and HD DVD for discs, that feature different encodes for both formats and are maxing out each formats maximal bitrate (e.g. Natures Journey).

This is relevant for what part of the HiDef market? 1%? 0.1%??? Afaik the best selling HDTVs are "cheap" 30"ish flatscreens, their owners will not see any difference at all. What they *might believe* is that BR is the better format, because they are being told so by BR biased persons. Therefore it has to be stressed out, that there is no *real* pq advantage for any format.

Even if they *only* have 720p 30"ish flatscreen with 1080i/720p inputs, they will be blown away by the pq that a good HD DVD / Blu-ray can deliver compared to the HD cable/sat or upconverted SD DVDs IF they care about pq. This is a big, fat IF, because normal people caring about pq is very much disputeable.

Btw all the potential in the world doesn´t help you, if the will to use it is lacking. Have all SD DVD's been encoded to provide the best pq SD DVD could do? No! You should expect the same for HDM, because obviously the studios do not care to use all of the potential HDM has with each release. There are many titles out there on both formats, that don´t look like the compressionist cared as much as we would like him to. I would be more than happy, if even the *lesser* potential of HD DVD would be fully used.

About the same thing goes for the lossless audio. Yes, there are differences and yes, as an enthusiast i would also like to see "lossless" audio tracks only. Just for the sake of it. The masses with their *normal* HDTV's and whatever soundsystem they use will hear, that even DD+ @ 640 or 1.5 mbps sounds much better than ye olde sound from SD DVDs. The step up to *lossless* again only matters to the enthusiast, who is the minority. And again, the mastering of the audio is imo more important that the codec used. You don´t "loose" as much quality by using lossy codecs at good bitrates as the term "lossless" implies, but a bad mastering will sound bad regardless of the codec..

I know the BR side says these are "good enough" arguments, i say HD DVD is *good* and way much better than *good enough*. To use your Ferrari analogy, comparing HD DVD and BR is the same as comparing two different V8 models both built by Ferrari.....

(not commenting on the other points, this post in long enough as it is

)

cbcdesign · 10-15-2007, 08:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ECam43

Based on what Mr. Venomxr8 has posted, and for sure he has put a lot of time and effort into his post, it seems to me that although HD-DVD came to the party early, it's the late comer blu-ray that caused eyebrows to raise when she entered the room. And I'm not sure what advantage a double-duty DVD and HD-DVD disk would offer, because when I go HD, I'm going to do it all at once. I don't quite understand the advantage of a "smooth transition"to HD, unless you think the movie studios are going to develop the dual disk technology and then dump it in 5 years when most hoseholds are viewing all their movies in HD. Because once you have seen an movie in HD...well, need I say more.

DVd's are selling for £3.00 ($6.00) in my country now and people keep buying them. The public will move from DVD to HD slowly and smoothly, so will portable players of course, all of which are currently format DVD over here so it makes perfect sense that the move from SD to HD will be a smooth one.

brian451 · 10-15-2007, 08:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by venomxr8

Also In reply to the argument that HD DVD sells more stand alone players than Blu Ray, my response is that the movie studios only look at the amount of movies sold in which Blu Ray has the clear advantage.

you are beyond clueless...this early on, movie studios care far less about movies sold and more about hardware sold...warner's president said exactly that. if it was just movies sold, bluray should have won by now. so why havent they...hmmm, probably price, and what does price affect...the number of hardware sold. that's all the time i feel like wasting on your education.

Super XP · 10-15-2007, 02:17 PM

No matter what you say, his mind is made up, because he clearly rejects FACTS. He will continue supporting BD regardless. Pity IMO. He’s missing out on HD DVD & its greatness.

dobyblue · 10-15-2007, 02:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bruceames

Paramount didn't think so. They felt Blu-ray as a format was too expensive to use compared to HD DVD. Having a major studio replicate on a new format for over a year and then ditch it due to cost and performance (like not being ready for prime time) issues leaves a black mark on the format and informed consumers will wonder 'who's next?' (which studio is going to abandon Blu-ray next?). Therefore, Blu-ray has become the riskier of the formats and its future is more uncertain.

So when Weinstein inexplicably stopped releasing on HD DVD without any word as to why, what does that do? Decrease the risk factor associated with HD DVD?

MikeRox · 10-15-2007, 04:09 PM

I'd be impressed if any of the studios are turning much in the way of profit on HD DVD or Blu Ray right now.

I don't blame a smaller studio like Weinstein pulling back on the releases altogether.

Quite telling that they aren't releasing on Blu Ray either though. I think they've given up on HD completely for now.

**PFC5** · 10-16-2007, 12:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dobyblue

So when Weinstein inexplicably stopped releasing on HD DVD without any word as to why, what does that do? Decrease the risk factor associated with HD DVD?

You mean like Fox did for over 6 months?

autobot · 10-16-2007, 01:00 AM

Do some homework,Hd dvd disc size is pretty close to Blu ray,with layering it should hit 90 gig by years end ,blu ray uses a red and green co laser,do homework or ask any sony rep,not sure about hd dvd laser though.now as for better picture have you seen a hd dvd its much better than most blu ray movies out.also why was their a 50.00 price drop in japan on the ps3(at launch)now 150,because of poor support from sq enix,they make most of the popular games in jp right now,also only 19 bds have come out in asia,most are on the sales bins.check the codec on bd disc they are no better than a upconverted dvd,1.8-3.2 on a format scale,they are not going to issue a cheap bd player anytime soon.why,ps3 is the cheap one in sony eyes,and with the nov 1st launch of the 40 gig ps3 it might have a chance.you can buy a cheap hd player at walmart for 200 .the hd a2.so support anybody you like sony will keep making discs,i have said this before the umd died in the usa and they still make them.and i dont care about my grammer .

venomxr8 · 10-16-2007, 04:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Super XP

No matter what you say, his mind is made up, because he clearly rejects FACTS. He will continue supporting BD regardless. Pity IMO. He’s missing out on HD DVD & its greatness.

What FACTS??? Please enlighten me

venomxr8 · 10-16-2007, 04:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Super XP

No matter what you say, his mind is made up, because he clearly rejects FACTS. He will continue supporting BD regardless. Pity IMO. He’s missing out on HD DVD & its greatness.

Actually I Accept the facts, and all facts point to a blu ray victory. And in reply to Brian451, with all of the ps3's being sold around the world, even if 1 in 4 buyers (25%) adopt HD movies, which format do you think they will go for??? kind of makes the stand alone player sales numbers a moot point as in the grand scheme of things the sales for stand alones have been poor for BOTH formats

Stew4HD · 10-16-2007, 05:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by venomxr8

Actually I Accept the facts, and all facts point to a blu ray victory. And in reply to Brian451, with all of the ps3's being sold around the world, even if 1 in 4 buyers (25%) adopt HD movies, which format do you think they will go for??? kind of makes the stand alone player sales numbers a moot point as in the grand scheme of things the sales for stand alones have been poor for BOTH formats

Have you ever seen an HD DVD video set up on a good system? have you ever sat down and TRULY compared both systems? If you had, then you wouldn't be able to say that one is better than the other for PQ and AQ, regardless what things look like on paper (disc size and bit rate).

There has not been a week in recent months where ONE BD player has outsold ANY HD DVD player on Amazon. All the Toshibas have been consistantly in the top 20 (all the models) and the BD players rarely reach top 20. The HD-A2 has been the top selling DVD players for quite some time. You want to tell me that the PS3 is going to be "The BD PLAYER"? Look at how the PS3 has sold recently. It has basically tanked everywhere after its initial release.

Sure, the PS3 is leading in overall numbers of players out there but, as time goes by, that lead will continue to ebb as HD DVD prices fall. Common sense is all it take, not blu or red blindness.

10-15-2007, 02:17 PM	#23
Super XP Star Trek: The Movie! Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Toronto, ON. Canada Posts: 5,776	No matter what you say, his mind is made up, because he clearly rejects FACTS. He will continue supporting BD regardless. Pity IMO. He’s missing out on HD DVD & its greatness. __________________ Toshiba Regza 46" HDTV (46RF350U) LCD 1080p/24p Toshiba HD-A35 / HD-A3 / XD-E500 LG GGC-H20L Super Multi / PC Drive Onkyo TX-SR605 7.1 TrueHD/DTS HD MA Precision Acoustics™ 8Ch. Hi Def Loudspeaker Series DVD's = 200 = 130 = 10

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10-15-2007, 05:38 AM	#18
ECam43 My plasma is High Def. Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 8	Based on what Mr. Venomxr8 has posted, and for sure he has put a lot of time and effort into his post, it seems to me that although HD-DVD came to the party early, it's the late comer blu-ray that caused eyebrows to raise when she entered the room. And I'm not sure what advantage a double-duty DVD and HD-DVD disk would offer, because when I go HD, I'm going to do it all at once. I don't quite understand the advantage of a "smooth transition"to HD, unless you think the movie studios are going to develop the dual disk technology and then dump it in 5 years when most hoseholds are viewing all their movies in HD. Because once you have seen an movie in HD...well, need I say more.

10-15-2007, 06:04 AM	#19
truba11a High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 506	blu-ray wont lose its just like in the beginning of anything new thas ever been invented nobody wants anything to do with it but overtime when prices come down IMO hd dvds will eventually make regular dvds disappear then eventually bluray will take hd dvds place but this most likely will take 30 years or so i mean VCRs and VHS tapes STILL exist not many but it still exists

10-15-2007, 04:09 PM	#25
MikeRox Blu Blu Skies! :D Join Date: May 2007 Location: Huddersfield, United Kingdom Posts: 12,417	I'd be impressed if any of the studios are turning much in the way of profit on HD DVD or Blu Ray right now. I don't blame a smaller studio like Weinstein pulling back on the releases altogether. Quite telling that they aren't releasing on Blu Ray either though. I think they've given up on HD completely for now.

10-16-2007, 01:00 AM	#27
autobot High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: here and there Posts: 135	Do some homework,Hd dvd disc size is pretty close to Blu ray,with layering it should hit 90 gig by years end ,blu ray uses a red and green co laser,do homework or ask any sony rep,not sure about hd dvd laser though.now as for better picture have you seen a hd dvd its much better than most blu ray movies out.also why was their a 50.00 price drop in japan on the ps3(at launch)now 150,because of poor support from sq enix,they make most of the popular games in jp right now,also only 19 bds have come out in asia,most are on the sales bins.check the codec on bd disc they are no better than a upconverted dvd,1.8-3.2 on a format scale,they are not going to issue a cheap bd player anytime soon.why,ps3 is the cheap one in sony eyes,and with the nov 1st launch of the 40 gig ps3 it might have a chance.you can buy a cheap hd player at walmart for 200 .the hd a2.so support anybody you like sony will keep making discs,i have said this before the umd died in the usa and they still make them.and i dont care about my grammer .