Why Blu-Ray should never win this Hi Def Format War.

Super XP · 09-25-2007, 06:47 PM

Why Blu-Ray should never win this Hi Def Format War.
By: Nick Trakosas
September 25, 2007

Quote:

I would like to start off by saying, I was in favor of format neutrality. Only after extensive research within the film industry, I came to the cold hard conclusion that the HD DVD format is not getting the respect it deserves. Many in the film industry agree with me on several points, but they are currently employed by certain studios and so they've advised me to keep them completely anonymous.

Why did Blu-Ray gain momentum staritng in early 2007? The Play Station 3 is the "ONLY" reason for Blu-Ray's momentum. I can contentedly illustrate Blu-Ray as an unfinished product which has yet to be standardized. Today we have only one available Hi Def format that has been standardized and approved by the DVD Forum ever since it's introduction into the industry, HD DVD.

My issue is not whether Blu-Ray is standardized or not, my issue lies within the FUD that is spread around all over news groups, forums, blogs etc. Even people with blogs & articles that are believed to be film industry professionals have completely disregarded HD DVD's advantages & regrettably made up their minds on a Hi Def winner namely Blu-Ray, regardless of facts.

An example is Disney's CEO Robert Iger. Before he comes on board spreading FUD to consumers, he should seriously consider looking into understanding the true status of both HD DVD and Blu-Ray formats, to bluntly come out and say "Blu-Ray's victory was a "Forgone Conclusion" and expressed disappointment that other studios had not joined the Blu-Ray's team" is clearly his opinion and completely unprofessional. Being a CEO, he should be very careful with what is said. People that are unfamiliar with either format and its war will only be co-Hurst into more confusion.

I've read several articles, reviews and even browsed several different Hi Defenition forums and needless to say this is the type of one sided garbage I get from Blu-Ray supporters:
Here is a quote from a popular Blu-Ray supporter called Bill Hunt.

Quote: He says that Paramount and DreamWorks going HD DVD exclusive is BAD for consumers, but Disney, FOX Lions Gate and Sony Studios being Blu-Ray exclusive is NOT bad for consumers.

I've yet to see FUD like this coming from neutral & HD DVD supporters. Why are Blu-Ray supporters so insecure? I believe Sony's past failures may explain this ridiculous rational Blu-Ray supportive behavior. You see, people such as forum poster Bill Hunt and Disney's CEO Robert Iger can't face the fact that HD DVD is a completed format, is standardized, has no known issue with future compatability, has recieved complete approval for its upcoming 51GB Twin Format discs, cheaper HD DVD players for sale, cheaper to produce, is gaining momentum, has gained Paramount's and DreamWorks exclusive support etc. I can go on and on, but unfortnately their close minded behavioral thinking clouds their mind and will probably not change nor recognize HD DVD's positives.

Why am I writing this article? I am speaking for people that are completely fed up and so that people can understand the facts & fictions about this Hi Def industry. People are very confused, and studio execs don't understand the degree of consumer confusion. Thanks to Disney's & 20th Century Fox's CEO's, both have played key roles in mass confusion, not to mention the ridiculous adds Blu-Ray has come out with lately.

Being positive and truthful about your supportive format should gain you popular support, but when you fall into desperation just as Blu-Ray has expressed lately, you spell failure because people are not stupid. I've yet to see misleading HD DVD adds. And knowing Toshiba & Microsoft very well, we will never see such adds.

Just my take on the way this HD industry is going. 4th Quarter of 2007 in my opinion, O.K. maybe not my opinion, but I was asked to keep a few somebody's anonymous, will be one deciding factor, whether studio support will be gained or lost within each Hi Def Format. And believe me, they've almost made up their minds for exclusive support being granted to one of the big two Hi Def Format's, so long as that Format can show disc sales & player sale increases within the Q4 of 2007.....

http://www.geocities.com/superxpfx/HD_DVD_Blog2.html

Stew4HD · 09-25-2007, 07:06 PM

I like it and share his sentiments regarding the way many of the BD supporters have carried on all along.

HD DVD is a FINISHED product. What is so hard to get about that? BD is a product in the works. Not FUD, truth!

johnnyd1 · 09-25-2007, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stew4HD

I like it and share his sentiments regarding the way many of the BD supporters have carried on all along.

HD DVD is a FINISHED product. What is so hard to get about that? BD is a product in the works. Not FUD, truth!

Hd dvd is "finished" alright LOL. You finally figured it out ! Glad you took off the RED ANT GLASSES for once .

Stew4HD · 09-25-2007, 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnyd1

Hd dvd is "finished" alright LOL. You finally figured it out ! Glad you took off the RED ANT GLASSES for once .

Oh, you be real funny, troll dung.. now back to you bloo boy haven with ya!

Come back when you can produce proof that BD is a "completed" format.

Lee Stewart · 09-25-2007, 09:15 PM

It is a good article because it calls into question the double standard that has plagued BD from day one.

"What is good for the goose is good for the gander."

And now that the tables have turned, it is showing just how desperate BD is.

They know damn well that people are going to buy $200 HD DVD players. HD DVD has set itself up to be in the cat bird seat for Q4 with inexpensive players and plenty of content. You MUST have both to get ahead.

And BD is still messing around with the PS3 trying to use it as a cheap BD player. Big problem is that no one buys a game console strictly as a movie player except AV Geeks on these forums. Never been done in the past - it won't happen in the future.

Hollywood knows the futuer of HDM is the SAL and BD not only has incomplete players but they are damn expensive and way out of the price range of the average person.

The PS3 has given BD the first 9 months of stats in the war. Let's see what happens in the most important, most crutial last 3 months of 2007.

Badlander 73 · 09-25-2007, 09:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

It is a good article because it calls into question the double standard that has plagued BD from day one.

"What is good for the goose is good for the gander."

And now that the tables have turned, it is showing just how desperate BD is.

They know damn well that people are going to buy $200 HD DVD players. HD DVD has set itself up to be in the cat bird seat for Q4 with inexpensive players and plenty of content. You MUST have both to get ahead.

And BD is still messing around with the PS3 trying to use it as a cheap BD player. Big problem is that no one buys a game console strictly as a movie player except AV Geeks on these forums. Never been done in the past - it won't happen in the future.

Hollywood knows the futuer of HDM is the SAL and BD not only has incomplete players but they are damn expensive and way out of the price range of the average person.

The PS3 has given BD the first 9 months of stats in the war. Let's see what happens in the most important, most crutial last 3 months of 2007.

Alright Lee, you are gonna be happy if your format wins, because if, and only if, your precious format happens to mabey win,(it wont) will I officially leave this site forever...only if blu ray completely vanishes off the face of the earth!

Deal or no Deal?

Lee Stewart · 09-25-2007, 09:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Badlander 73

Alright Lee, you are gonna be happy if your format wins, because if, and only if, your precious format happens to mabey win,(it wont) will I officially leave this site forever...only if blu ray completely vanishes off the face of the earth!

Deal or no Deal?

We both know Sony will not stop making BD's. It may be a fact of the future where they are the ONLY one making BD's.

And what you do has little interest to me and you know it.

Super XP · 09-25-2007, 09:24 PM

Yes, I agree. Darn PS3, this is the reason why the format war is dragging on

Badlander 73 · 09-25-2007, 09:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

We both know Sony will not stop making BD's. It may be a fact of the future where they are the ONLY one making BD's.

And what you do has little interest to me and you know it.

Yeah I know it(Hmmmm)ok dude, you got me there!

Lazarus · 09-25-2007, 10:14 PM

However, I've made no secret that I support Blu-Ray currently because I bought a PS3. However, I see a lot of people here wanting to have it both ways. I hear a lot of "PS3 isn't going to matter because people who buy it buy it for games, not movies", but then proceed to explain a sales disadvantage because of the number of PS3s. You can't have it both ways, guys. Either the PS3 is a factor, or its not.

Having said that, BD needs to get its act together if it wants to remain in the game. Price and standardization are workable problems, given enough effort. Simply relying on the PS3 attach rate, which, to be fair, will likely continue to grow, will not be enough.

HD-DVD right now has a number of very effective, informative TV spots. BD doesn't have anytrhing close.

I haven't currently bought any HD-DVDs, although I am likely to, as Star-Trek may onlt come to HD-DVD. Peronally, I have only seen one movie in both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray, and that was Phantom of the Opera. I really did not appreciate any difference except in the audio, which is superior in the HD-DVD version because of the Dolby TruHD track. Otherwise, I am comfortable with the video I have seen.

Quote:

Never been done in the past - it won't happen in the future.

Disagree. Sony did it, and did it effectively with the PS2 for a time. Many cite the PS2 as the reason for the fast penetration and the quickly competitive prices of stand-alone DVD players.

Quote:

I've yet to see misleading HD DVD adds. And knowing Toshiba & Microsoft very well, we will never see such adds.

I would not exactly describe Microsoft as forthcoming in the shortcomings of their work, however. That's not a cheap shot at HD-DVD or an endorsement of Sony. I just wouldn't look to them as the paragon of virtue here.

Lee Stewart · 09-25-2007, 10:31 PM

Quote:

Disagree. Sony did it, and did it effectively with the PS2 for a time. Many cite the PS2 as the reason for the fast penetration and the quickly competitive prices of stand-alone DVD players

Again disagree. DVD took off because of these reasons:

1. The death of DIVX (June 1998)
2. ALL studios agreeded to support DVD (July 1998)
3. Blockbuster announced they would carry DVD for rental (August 1998)
4. The price of DVD players went to $300 and below (Q4 1998)

The PS2 has NEVER been mentioned anywheres as a "fuel to the fire" for DVD's success. If you can provide links to articles saying otherwise, I would like to see them please.

Super XP · 09-25-2007, 11:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lazarus

However, I've made no secret that I support Blu-Ray currently because I bought a PS3. However, I see a lot of people here wanting to have it both ways. I hear a lot of "PS3 isn't going to matter because people who buy it buy it for games, not movies", but then proceed to explain a sales disadvantage because of the number of PS3s. You can't have it both ways, guys. Either the PS3 is a factor, or its not.

You may have misunderstood the resoning behind us saying that the PS3 is not a factor. The problem is Sony is using a game system to push Blu-Ray. One would think that they would release competative Blu-Ray players to push Blu-Ray, but they havent, and they will probably not for at least 2 years time.

Personaly Sony using the PS3 to force Blu-Ray addoption is quite pathetic to say the least.

So, think about that for a minute? And tell me if Sony is desperate like their was no tomorrow?

I believe so IMO. At least when an HD DVD player sells, its for the Hi Def movies, not for gaming

I believe the article above says it all anyway.

Lazarus · 09-26-2007, 12:17 AM

I have read that a number of times, but I cannot remember where, (I think it might have been Forbes) and I can find no citation to support it, so one must assume that it was anecdotal. So, as I said, I will concede the point.

<i>Personaly Sony using the PS3 to force Blu-Ray addoption is quite pathetic to say the least.</i>

Why? Microsoft did it with their operating systems. I actually think its a shrewd business move but just executed extremely poorly. Problem is, they banked on better penetration into the market of the PS3s, and underestimated Nintendo's market durability. In addition, everything that could have gone wrong with their release date calendar has gone wrong which has resulted in a far less substantial gaming library. However, had PS3 debuted with its originally planned exclusives, no delays, a slightly lower price (even if it meant a loss for Sony) we might be looking at a very different picture right now and would very likely not be debating this at all.

But its not like they are trying to force a defective product on us, despite claims here to the contrary. They're trying to do what any good business would do: try to corner the market.

I've seen a number of people here comment that they want one format. I would, too, but only after a format war forces down what would otherwise be enormously inflated prices. I think we are seeing prices currently that would not have been seen for years with one format, IMO.

The_Omega_Man · 09-26-2007, 02:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lazarus

I actually think its a shrewd business move but just executed extremely poorly. Problem is, they banked on better penetration into the market of the PS3s, and underestimated Nintendo's market durability. In addition, everything that could have gone wrong with their release date calendar has gone wrong which has resulted in a far less substantial gaming library. However, had PS3 debuted with its originally planned exclusives, no delays, a slightly lower price (even if it meant a loss for Sony) we might be looking at a very different picture right now and would very likely not be debating this at all.

But its not like they are trying to force a defective product on us, despite claims here to the contrary. They're trying to do what any good business would do: try to corner the market.

I've seen a number of people here comment that they want one format. I would, too, but only after a format war forces down what would otherwise be enormously inflated prices. I think we are seeing prices currently that would not have been seen for years with one format, IMO.

I have to agree with you here!... On Paper, the PS3 move made complete sense...Sony knew that HD DVD was going to hit the market before Blu-Ray was a fully baked product, so they leveraged the popularity of the PS2 franchise to seed the market with Blu-Ray players in sheep's clothing. Great first thrust, in theory! The net affect has been a polarization of the movie studios, that ran to the format with more installed HD player potential. Sony saw this as a win, win, again on paper. Continued Game console dominance AND full industry adoption of Blu-Ray as the replacement to DVD by pure industry weight and greed alone... Ka..Ching!

They (Sony) did not count on;

The fact that HD DVD would NOT simply dry up and whither away, but actually gained and maintained a market, after all! After all, they lobbied and swayed ($?) more than half the CE and Movie industry, before the HD DVD products hit store shelves.
HD DVD would start a price battle before the Blu-Ray Laser pick up mechanisms could be made more cheaply and before the stand alone Blu-Ray players could grab any siginificant market share. The price battle has happened and been a tough battle for the BDA, partially as a result of the incorrect BDA assumptions of HD DVD's early demise! SA BD players are gaining some ground primarily, thanks to aggressive marketing and copy cat promotions for Blu-Ray movies and player end-caps! Oh and a finatical (at times) fan base.
The fact that Nintendo has basically "Bitch slapped," them in the console gaming industry, which Sony was late entering with the PS3, while trying to get the BD drives into the PS3 before launch.
The 18 month window that the BDA though that they would have to get their Blu-Ray product finalized, effectively shrank to 6 months from a competitive standpoint! The HD DVD camp has held constant pressure on the Blu-Ray camp to release whatever they could (early) to be able to combat HD DVD's potential mass acceptance.
Universal Pictures would remain Rock Steady in its exclusivity for HD DVD with Warner and Paramount initially going neutral
Paramount and Dreamworks ......enuf said there!
Low cost HD DVD players soon to hit the market for the 2007 holidays.
HD DVD while losing it leading position for HD Pre-recorded Media sales early on, has remained very steady in it's position not too far behind Blu-Ray for 9+ months of 2007. ~2:1 in favor of Blu Ray discs has not seemed to faze any of the early HD DVD adopters
The strategy to cut of the potential HD DVD distribution chains has not created a significant impact to the rate of HD DVD disc or player sales.
The Fact that the BDA would need to start a semi-public smear campaign to discourage the media industry and any potential buyers that would listen, to not support HD DVD.
The fact that the PS3 and other units within Sony have not had a record sales year in 2007 and as a result some important financial and business decisions need to be made.
The need to suddenly ramp up BD disc production, do the Fox and Disney unexpectedly fill the movie count hole, which was created by the sudden Paramount and Dreamworks departure from Blu-Ray, caused some unexpected replication delays, thus movie release delays.
The HD DVD camp would have a fully compliant $199 Chinese made player available for the 2007 holiday season, despite the rumors of it's arrival...after all HD DVD was supposed to be dead by Fall of 07'
Both Microsoft and Toshiba HATE to lose potential revenue and licensing and royalties...
The Blu Ray attach rates for the PS3 platform would be so low and have that issue actually matter, by October of 2007. Even though this simply bought some time for the OTHER CE mfgs. to get their Blu-Ray players to market, albeit ~18 months too soon!
No realised flood of new games in 3 quarters of 2007 for the PS3 format. And X_Box Live going live the PS3 equivalent and with better overall marketing.
The PC arena would be an end-around from a marketing perspective....odd sense the Blu Ray format basically got it's start as a high capacity PC data storage format specification.
That Movie studios would find it to be more expensive overall, to produce movies in Blu-Ray than in HD DVD ....today!
BD-Java would be more difficult for the studio disc authors to work with than the HDi counterpart, which HD DVD uses. Also the fact that until there are a good number of players on the market that support the full BD-J implementations, there would be no incentive for the studios to produce discs with this capability....thus that marketable aspect of Blu-Ray's interactivity would have to wait for another ~6-9 months.
Most of the initial MPEG-2 movie encodes (which Blu-Ray was initially designed to use as the primary codec (VC-1 = M$ & Sony = no way in hell! Since M$ jumped to the HD DVD camp. and AVC was not quite ready at the time! Thus the need for the additional video bandwidth and the DL-50 storage capacity ) were not very good in picture quality because they were apparently rushed to market and showed no clear advantage to Blu-Ray over HD DVD. Although the issues here have been corrected over time, for the most part, more that 50% of the currently available Blu-Ray titles are still encoded using the MPEG-2, format, presumably to keep the licensing fees low...A similar situation was true with the LPCM audio! However, the latter never suffered in AQ as the PQ did in the early movie releases.
A need to support Dolby TrueHD or DTS-HD, within the HD players initially or the need for Dual video decoders to be mandated within the first Blu-Ray players to hit the market. Supposedly, this will all be remedied, with the promise of mandated Blu-Ray Specification Profile 1.1 for all Blu-Ray players manufactured after 10/31/07...save the PS3!
A need to mandate a network adapter within the initial Blu-Ray players, be able to support any potential Internet based interactivity elements...This was/is supposed to be done within the spare space available on the Blu-Ray disc. Blu Ray Profile 2.0 (with no specific date given yet) is supposed to fix this potential shortcoming for all future Blu-Ray players...save the PS3....hmmmm!
The HD DVD Promotional group would offer put away the swords and partner with the BDA, to jointly help stamp out DVD via joint marketing efforts. To which, the BDA declined!
The HD DVD Promotional group would decline to join the BDA once the BDA realise just how much potential there is for the HD DVD camp to drag this format WAR on for some unknown future. "You know of course, this mean WAR!"

So Sony and the BDA while you were out trying to undermine any of the potential distribution/support channels for the HD DVD camp and trying to out FUD the HD DVD camp, at every opportunity, the HD DVD camp has been slow and steady in it's approach and is promising a long race before, "It's over!" Now unless the BDA has one or more very secret and mean rabbits in it's collective sleeves, they may be choking on some competitive dust for a change, going into 2008 and beyond! This is what the industry "Analysts," are seeing too!

I do agree, that this holiday season, much more than the last holiday season, will be potentially (relatively) huge for one or the other HD camp...I know who my money is on!

MikeRox · 09-26-2007, 04:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The_Omega_Man

I have to agree with you here!... On Paper, the PS3 move made complete sense...Sony knew that HD DVD was going to hit the market before Blu-Ray was a fully baked product, so they leveraged the popularity of the PS2 franchise to seed the market with Blu-Ray players in sheep's clothing.

I've actually read from quite a lot of sources throughout the PS3s development cycle, that there was A LOT of internal conflict over the decision to include blu ray and from what I can gather, SCEI were against the idea fearing it would drive cost prohibitively high for gamers, but the CE division went over their heads to get it put in as they saw it as a dead cert way of ensuring Blu Ray won.

View Poll Results: Do you agree with the article bellow?
YES	29	67.44%
NO	8	18.60%
Somewhat?	6	13.95%
Voters: 43. You may not vote on this poll

09-25-2007, 07:06 PM	#2
Stew4HD High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 9,068	I like it and share his sentiments regarding the way many of the BD supporters have carried on all along. HD DVD is a FINISHED product. What is so hard to get about that? BD is a product in the works. Not FUD, truth! __________________ ___________________________________

09-25-2007, 09:24 PM	#8
Super XP Star Trek: The Movie! Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Toronto, ON. Canada Posts: 5,776	Yes, I agree. Darn PS3, this is the reason why the format war is dragging on __________________ Toshiba Regza 46" HDTV (46RF350U) LCD 1080p/24p Toshiba HD-A35 / HD-A3 / XD-E500 LG GGC-H20L Super Multi / PC Drive Onkyo TX-SR605 7.1 TrueHD/DTS HD MA Precision Acoustics™ 8Ch. Hi Def Loudspeaker Series DVD's = 200 = 130 = 10

09-26-2007, 12:17 AM	#13
Lazarus Killing monsters in 1080p Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 113	I will concede the point... I have read that a number of times, but I cannot remember where, (I think it might have been Forbes) and I can find no citation to support it, so one must assume that it was anecdotal. So, as I said, I will concede the point. <i>Personaly Sony using the PS3 to force Blu-Ray addoption is quite pathetic to say the least.</i> Why? Microsoft did it with their operating systems. I actually think its a shrewd business move but just executed extremely poorly. Problem is, they banked on better penetration into the market of the PS3s, and underestimated Nintendo's market durability. In addition, everything that could have gone wrong with their release date calendar has gone wrong which has resulted in a far less substantial gaming library. However, had PS3 debuted with its originally planned exclusives, no delays, a slightly lower price (even if it meant a loss for Sony) we might be looking at a very different picture right now and would very likely not be debating this at all. But its not like they are trying to force a defective product on us, despite claims here to the contrary. They're trying to do what any good business would do: try to corner the market. I've seen a number of people here comment that they want one format. I would, too, but only after a format war forces down what would otherwise be enormously inflated prices. I think we are seeing prices currently that would not have been seen for years with one format, IMO. __________________ Evil genius for a better tomorrow

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09-25-2007, 09:15 PM	#5
Lee Stewart Behold - the future! Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Albuquerque, NM Age: 58 Posts: 25,193	It is a good article because it calls into question the double standard that has plagued BD from day one. "What is good for the goose is good for the gander." And now that the tables have turned, it is showing just how desperate BD is. They know damn well that people are going to buy $200 HD DVD players. HD DVD has set itself up to be in the cat bird seat for Q4 with inexpensive players and plenty of content. You MUST have both to get ahead. And BD is still messing around with the PS3 trying to use it as a cheap BD player. Big problem is that no one buys a game console strictly as a movie player except AV Geeks on these forums. Never been done in the past - it won't happen in the future. Hollywood knows the futuer of HDM is the SAL and BD not only has incomplete players but they are damn expensive and way out of the price range of the average person. The PS3 has given BD the first 9 months of stats in the war. Let's see what happens in the most important, most crutial last 3 months of 2007.