HD DVD with 70% of stand alones. Can Sony win?

HD VHS · 07-01-2007, 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bruceames

Well said HD VHS. If Blu-ray were behind, they would be focusing on surviving first and thinking of a win when they believe they have a chance.

Agreed.

Lee Stewart · 07-01-2007, 10:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bruceames

I don't understand your logic. If dual format players become the norm I won't care anymore if the cases are red or blue and neither should anyone else. That's what DF players are for, right? Your comment about it "continue to be thrown into the faces of HD DVD owners" seems rather odd.

What do you think will happen?

A DF player only guarantees the war goes on. The only thing a DF player does is combine the two formats into one player. You can buy 2 players now and have essentially the same thing - consumer is format neutral.

It's like WB's THD - it wont change a studio going from exclusive to neutral unless they want to. If Disney adopted the THD then they would no longer be exclusive BRD.

The sides are set at this time. A DF player is a convience factor for the consumer - nothing more, 1 player instead of 2 - one hookup instead of two.

As long as the software remains 70/30 - it is a war. If it went to 50/50 - different story. . . stalemate

**bruceames** · 07-01-2007, 11:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

A DF player only guarantees the war goes on. The only thing a DF player does is combine the two formats into one player. You can buy 2 players now and have essentially the same thing - consumer is format neutral.

If it's taken out of the hands of the consumer and retailers, then it's not a war per se in my opinion anymore. The BDA and HD DVD-A can fight all they want for market share but it will be behind the scenes and no one will care. If the consumers all become format nuetral, whether having one player or two, then everything will be cool.

Lee Stewart · 07-01-2007, 11:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bruceames

If it's taken out of the hands of the consumer and retailers, then it's not a war per se in my opinion anymore. The BDA and HD DVD-A can fight all they want for market share but it will be behind the scenes and no one will care. If the consumers all become format nuetral, whether having one player or two, then everything will be cool.

"Once upon a time . .. ."

HD VHS · 07-01-2007, 11:23 PM

Just buy a 360 and a PS3, problem solved, thats my view now

Although I would still like to see a clear winner.

Jimmy Smith · 07-01-2007, 11:32 PM

Since stand-alones make up a tiny fraction of HD disc playing devices HD-DVD selling more stand-alones is irrelevent. Too bad Toshiba is planning to bring in Chinese players and make stand-alones unprofitable as well.

**bruceames** · 07-01-2007, 11:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jimmy Smith

Since stand-alones make up a tiny fraction of HD disc playing devices HD-DVD selling more stand-alones is irrelevent. Too bad Toshiba is planning to bring in Chinese players and make stand-alones unprofitable as well.

Shirley you don't see the PS3 maintaining the HD player market share they have now do you? If the PS3 sells for $600 and a standalone for $200, what do you think the consumer will buy?

The PS3 heyday is gone. Sony did that when they brought the $500 standalone to market. Don't blame Toshiba for Sony's fuckups.

The_Omega_Man · 07-01-2007, 11:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

A DF player only guarantees the war goes on. The only thing a DF player does is combine the two formats into one player. You can buy 2 players now and have essentially the same thing - consumer is format neutral.

It's like WB's THD - it wont change a studio going from exclusive to neutral unless they want to. If Disney adopted the THD then they would no longer be exclusive BRD.

The sides are set at this time. A DF player is a convience factor for the consumer - nothing more, 1 player instead of 2 - one hookup instead of two.

As long as the software remains 70/30 - it is a war. If it went to 50/50 - different story. . . stalemate

Well IMO if the DF players do become the normal HDD delivery system, then there is absolutely no incentive for any of the studios to either go, or stay, format neutral. Why produce discs in 3-4 formats for each movie? After all, the customer is format neutral.... right? In this regard it could prolong the war or make it completely irrelevant.

The_Omega_Man · 07-02-2007, 12:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jimmy Smith

Since stand-alones make up a tiny fraction of HD disc playing devices HD-DVD selling more stand-alones is irrelevant. Too bad Toshiba is planning to bring in Chinese players and make stand-alones unprofitable as well.

Today, Toshiba stand alones players actually make up the Majority of HDD Players for the HD-DVD camp! In aggregate and for now, I somewhat agree with your statement.

Selling standalone players is what Toshiba is all about, as they do not directly own any movie studios or distribution rights (that I am aware of).

Eventually, the stand alone HDD player market will reach the commodity price points. This is going to happen sooner than either Sony or Toshiba originally anticipated, mainly because of the format war.

Having cheaper players, is the ONLY way to truly win this war! When J6P can buy one, he will buy or rent the movies to play on it. The more J6Ps you get to buy the HDD players, the greater the movie demand and subsequently, the greater the profits (or so the theory goes, right Sony?)

Remember, the CEs don't just make money on the players, there is the licensing money!....In fact, I am not sure that they (Sony and Toshiba) are really making any money at all... (right Sony?)

dontknowjack · 07-02-2007, 01:58 AM

I disagree. Having cheaper stand-alone player is not the only way to win. You can make all the cheap player you want but don't have content to play on it, the player itself will eventually become paperweight. Whichever side that has the most affordable player AND the most content will win. Just my opinion.

**bruceames** · 07-02-2007, 03:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dontknowjack

Whichever side that has the most affordable player AND the most content will win. .

You may be waiting a while, since neither side has both of those advantages.

Buford_Pusser · 07-02-2007, 06:03 AM

I read the article again and it seems to indicate that the figures of the past two months increased significantly & refelects the entire stand alone market.

"the market adoption of HD DVD increased significantly in the past 2 months garnering Toshiba with approximately 70 percent share of all high definition set-top players, both HD DVD and Blu-ray, in both April and May according to NPD"
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070629/nef003.html

As far as the content, they will create more HD DVDs if they feel that is where the hd movie market is!

MikeRox · 07-02-2007, 06:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jimmy Smith

Since stand-alones make up a tiny fraction of HD disc playing devices HD-DVD selling more stand-alones is irrelevent. Too bad Toshiba is planning to bring in Chinese players and make stand-alones unprofitable as well.

By that logic, wouldn't DVD standalones be none existant and everybody use PS2s for DVDs? Seeing as the PS2s introduction was what kickstarted the DVD as a mass market format.

daleb · 07-02-2007, 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bruceames

Shirley you don't see the PS3 maintaining the HD player market share they have now do you? If the PS3 sells for $600 and a standalone for $200, what do you think the consumer will buy? fuckups.

You make a good point, but don't call me Shirley!

**PFC5** · 07-02-2007, 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The_Omega_Man

Well IMO if the DF players do become the normal HDD delivery system, then there is absolutely no incentive for any of the studios to either go, or stay, format neutral. Why produce discs in 3-4 formats for each movie? After all, the customer is format neutral.... right? In this regard it could prolong the war or make it completely irrelevant.

I disagree about the studios maintaining the Status Quo IF DF players become the norm. No one can know for sure, but I think the studios are about greed more than most industries, so they will go for the format that has the lowest disc mfg cost to increase profits.

Sure they want to protect their content too, but once BD+ gets cracked, and I believe it will, it will be all about lowering costs and increasing profits. As of right now, that would point to HD DVD discs and not BD discs.

Remember, Sony cannot keep subsidizing the BD disc mfg costs for the studios and sooner or later, they will have to stop that practice. I believe it is not a question of IF they will stop this but WHEN they will stop this. I see two ways WHY this will happen. First, if BD happens to win the format war there will be no reason/incentive for Sony to continue bleeding more money to continue. Second, if this war goes on for years and DF players become the norm, Sony will have to decide how long they can bleed money and possibly give back all the royalties they get on BD discs made to continue this.

I am not sure if Sony is still doing this, but I have yet to read about anyone saying they stopped subsidizing the increased cost to mfg BD discs. Sure over time the cost will come down as the new equipment costs get depreciated, and mfg lines become more efficient, but this holds to some extent for HD DVD becoming cheaper too.

BD fans will have to consider what would happen now IF the format war ended tomorrow. Would you like the movie costs going up when the subsidies to BD disc cost stop?

I think if the war goes on for a couple of years with DF players we will ALL get a better deal out of it in the long run. IMO

07-02-2007, 06:03 AM	#27
Buford_Pusser Authentic DVD below! Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 198	I read the article again and it seems to indicate that the figures of the past two months increased significantly & refelects the entire stand alone market. "the market adoption of HD DVD increased significantly in the past 2 months garnering Toshiba with approximately 70 percent share of all high definition set-top players, both HD DVD and Blu-ray, in both April and May according to NPD" http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070629/nef003.html As far as the content, they will create more HD DVDs if they feel that is where the hd movie market is! __________________ & IN THE END..... Anamorphic 16.9 Mastered in HD IS THE WINNER! Plays on all players!

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07-01-2007, 11:23 PM	#20
HD VHS High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Australia Posts: 987	Just buy a 360 and a PS3, problem solved, thats my view now Although I would still like to see a clear winner.

07-01-2007, 11:32 PM	#21
Jimmy Smith 50>30 Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 2,998	Since stand-alones make up a tiny fraction of HD disc playing devices HD-DVD selling more stand-alones is irrelevent. Too bad Toshiba is planning to bring in Chinese players and make stand-alones unprofitable as well.

07-02-2007, 01:58 AM	#25
dontknowjack High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 949	I disagree. Having cheaper stand-alone player is not the only way to win. You can make all the cheap player you want but don't have content to play on it, the player itself will eventually become paperweight. Whichever side that has the most affordable player AND the most content will win. Just my opinion.