Good news! Bill Hunt says 90% chance war over in 2008!

bruceames

Thar ya go, straight from The Man himself.

50/50 HD DVD gone by Xmas? That don't sound too good.

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/mytwocentsa137.html

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samcan07

I'd like it to be known that there is one winner by Christmas. That would be cool, no matter which format.

bruceames

It's not going to happen this year. HD DVD has been gaining market share and have their players selling well. They have as much reason to be optimistic as their opponent. It's going to be a real slugfest this Xmas and I think that's when the war will peak. After the dust settles from CES 2008, the inevitability of stalemate will become increasingly evident to all.

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KEEBS1984

Bill Hunt...

Its getting harder and harder to take that guy seriously every time he posts some of his "news".

Lee Stewart

Isn't going to happen at the end of 2008 either IMO. End of 2009 - maybe.

The dual format player will extend the war by a year (again IMO) as it is the solution many are looking for. And we know of one that is definitely coming. If and when this player is a success - it will open up the market to all the CEM's.

Jusy like what happened with LD years ago. First 5 years it was Pioneer on it's own. Soon as LD became popular you could buy an LD player from practially any CEM; Sony, Phillips, etc.

bruceames

I just meant it would start to be evident next year that dual format (players) would eventually be the result, not that dual format players would take over next year. I think that will happen in 2009, and that dual format players will start making some serious noise beginning Xmas 2008.

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RIP Kosty.

CochiseGuy

Bill Hunt...

Sounds like an old broken record player, playing the same track over and over an over . . . .

Besides the fact that "a 90% chance war over in 2008" sounds like a number he pulled out of a hat, why is it such "good news". 2nd gen BD players are being introduced at less than half the price of 1st gen players. Does anyone really think that would have happened if their was only blu-ray?

Bill Hunt harps & harps that the format war is slowing the adoption of high def optical disks. He's off by just 100%. The so called "format war" is what is called "competition" in the business & real world, and is driving down prices much faster, making it affordable and attractive to the much sought after Joe Six Pack.

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Lee Stewart

Good post!

Like the way you cleaned it up by saying he pulled it out of his hat . . . as opposed to what you really may have meant to say

IMO - I don't believe DF players will have a major impact because of their price.

It will allow the CEM's to once again produce a product that might get them a decent revenue stream. IF they don't play hardball with each other as seems to be the norm within the world of CE lately.

But when the Sam. 5000 shows up at $1000 this XMAS and the A2 is at $199 and the S300 is at $349 - how much sense does it make to buy that DF player?

Again . . . there is NO magic bullet IMO . . . UNLESS BB starts to carry HDD in their stores, so when people walk in they can see them, touch them, read the back label - and rent them. It worked for DVD, it will work for HDD. But until then . . HDD plods along.

GLOW

No, he's not. I used to think the same way as you but I was wrong. Think about it, competition in a small market like this is going to kill the chances of either format going mainstream. It will drive prices down and force both sides to step up quality, but it pushes both formats back from mass adoption.

Lee Stewart

Wait a minute! Hold the phone! Back up a second!

GLOW:

Did you just type an oxymoron?

Lower prices don't equal mass adoption?

What? Higher prices will?

SLedford

Right now we have studios that support HD-DVD, studios that support BD and studios that support both. HD-DVD is selling players as they cut prices and BD will do the same after they cut prices. I may pick up a BD player later this year if the prices drop on a quality player.

So what is supposed to happen to change this picture in 2008? or 2009? Are all the studios going to line up behind BD or HD-DVD? That would end the war, but it isn't going to happen.

As far as Joe Sixpack getting involved, dropping the players to $299 or so might get him slightly interested if he has bought (or is thinking of buying) an HD television, but the $24 - $35 per disk movie prices over at BB will kill any spark of interest before it can become a fire.

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GLOW

Consumer confusion DOES NOT equal mass adoption. Right now, the consumer is confused. Low prices on HD DVD players isn't helping.

To further illustrate:

consumers =

HD DVD owners =

Blu-ray owners =

dual format owners =

bruceames

LMAO

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daleb

"90% Chance Bill Hunt is Full of It"

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Lee Stewart

Then why are HD DVD player sales up 5 and even 10 times?

This of course has allowed us, the HD DVD camp, to take over the standalone market to the tune of 60% of sales.

Bet that fact sticks in your craw GLOW!

Just imagine - HD DVD is winning at something. Irks you doesn't it?

In the immortal words of our beloved member Samcan: