HD DVD Supporters... What's the battle plan / how does HD DVD win?

LordGamer · 06-10-2007, 10:44 AM

I originally was going to add this to my post (#38) in the "Why I think HD DVD will win, and why Bluray sucks." thread, but I felt the following deserved its own thread (for various reasons, but I just want to get to the heart of my topic).

I know this could seem like I'm going back to the good ole' days, but the HD DVD fanboy success philosophy seems to rely on Sony fudging up. Exclusive support going neutral, higher player cost, etc. It gives the impression that basically, for HD DVD to succeed, they have to hope for BR mistakes...in turn, HD DVD not having control over its own future.

So, I ask... What happens when / if BR players are the same price and the studio support still lies with Sony? I am sincerely asking to the HD DVD fans, what gives you hope, belief that HD DVD may be successful over Blu-ray? Or do you believe "to each their own," meaning both may be successful and co-exist?

I'm not a BR supporter or an HD DVD hater. I view both formats as nothing more than niche markets. That being said, whenever I read discussions like "Blu-ray sucks" or "HD DVD is a clear winner," they both seem reliant that the BR format destorys itself. And not just on this forum, but others as well.

Which got me thinking... At the beginning, it was HD DVD's early start...but then BR launched and surpassed them. Next, it was the storage and "only on paper" 50 GB discs. Now, the 50 GB discs are here. It then moved on to HD audio codecs, specifically, BR lacking them. As of late, many BR players have been updated supporting new features and codecs. Then, of course, there is the pricing...BR being much more expensive. But now, Sony is releasing a $500 machine, other price drops have taken effect, and there are solid reports / rumors of more to follow this holiday season.

Presently, it basically has come down to talking about if current BR players will be updateable to support (of all things) certain, possible special features. Followed by, if / when BD+ is cracked...which I must admit I find funny. "Just wait till BD+ is cracked, then Disney and Fox will leave." What's HD DVD copyright protection system (I honestly don't know, is there a unique one)? Wouldn't some protection (BR) be better than none / a little (HD DVD)? I get the visual of a runner saying, "Once that guys slows down to my [behind] pace, all of his fans will leave him and join me."

Even with the early setbacks and Toshiba clearly having a better launch plan, Sony in its original "Which way did he go?" state of mind, is still (currently) winning the battle. Now, Sony appears to be getting their act together. I said from the beginning, this battle was going to last years. Though, I recall many in the HD DVD camp acting as if the battle was over before BR ever launched. Which if the battle was only scheduled for a 12 month fight, HD DVD would of won. But considering time has brought many gifts for Sony, HD DVD needs to do more, as oppose to waiting.

Ok, ok... I see some of the HD DVD vets pulling out the little, old LG voodoo dolls, while the new fans are getting needles. But I'm not trying to throw shots while the ref isn't looking. I'm curious to know what HD DVD fans believe will be the battle plan moving forward. And frankly, I don't want BR boys chanting LordGamer in the streets or yelling how BR is better than beer filled steaks. I'm looking for HD DVD supporters thoughts (not bashing) and not BR praise.

Strawberry, if you don't mind... If I don't make it, please tell my girlfriend I love her and tell everyone to keep the *bleep* away from my Simpsons figures...girlfriend included.

HD VHS · 06-10-2007, 11:11 AM

Wow nice post, you have some very valid points, too be totally honest with some of these replies you do LordGamer, you have swayed my mind abit and made me see 2 views, but I just think that with all going Sony's way (seriously, the studio support they have is phenomenal) they cant seem to put HD DVD away, there is something more to this story, HD DVD is doing something right, and I can just see them breaking this war wide open, I can't give you a straight answer how, but I think they will, it might be them getting a big studio to back them (ie Fox or Disney?) might no happen though, although I can see the other side, if BluRay players come out cheap, then it will not be a good signal for HD DVD, but as I said they are doing something right, becuase BluRay just can't seem to shake them...

**bruceames** · 06-10-2007, 11:32 AM

Nice thread, LG. At this point I have very little hope that HD DVD will actually defeat Blu-ray. For it to happen HD DVD would need help from their opponent: namely the PS3 tanking. I don't rule that possibility out, however it's rather unlikely. I see dual format in the future, with both sides coexisting by virtue of low-priced dual format players.

Nevertheless, I am very optimistic about the format's future, as it does have several advantages that I pointed out in the advantages thread (most notably cost and adaptability). Blu-ray supporters tend to overemphasize the studio advantage but the fact remains that Blu-ray only has about 12% more content available and also that HD DVD has about 20 more titles in the release schedule pipeline at this time. Furthermore there are far more unique HD DVD titles that can be imported than there are Blu-ray. So in the end, while Blu-ray does have more studio support, so far it really hasn't manifested itself.

My real optimism though lies in HD DVD's trump card: price. It has been shown repeatable how important the $199 price point is for CE products, and I know now that HD DVD will hit it this holiday season. I actually expect HD DVD players (put together) to outsell the PS3 by this October on a monthly basis. No one really knows (except for Toshiba and a few priveleged insiders) at what rate standalone HD DVD players are selling right now, but I think its over
50K. Retailers are reporting 5-10 times higher sales with the Toshiba promotion and most Costcos are now selling the unit for $249.

Blu-ray standalone sales will pick up significantly when they get under the $500 price point, but still sales will be relative to the price points, and rise exponentially with linear price cuts (as is always the case).

12% more selection is not going to win over nearly as many people as will players that cost $200-$300 less. And frankly, with 400-500 titles available in each format, many (if not most) won't even notice. The PS3 may have a $100 price cut, but you're still talking $500, and that's still limited market pricing. The PS3 will gradually be bought more mainly for gaming as standalone prices fall while the PS3 price doesn't.

Universal has recently stated that they think the format war is good for consumers, and that should tell anyone right there that they have absolutely no plans to go neutral. They have known the importance of their exclusive status since day one, they have a plan, they have a goal, and that is long-term replication on the HD DVD format. They made a choice, and they will see it through. Besides, they are the leader of the US HD DVD-A. Furthermore, nothing has happened in this format war to alarm Universal into reconsidering their position. Sales are still very small compared to DVD, but that's to be expected given these formats are only one year old and that only 20% of the US market have HDTV to begin with. These formats are thus constrained by HDTV growth, and often-times this fact gets overlooked and the format war takes the blame for slow sales (which are actually close to what DVD was in the same time frame...with a full market to work with!)

However, when it's all said and done, I am virtually certain that dual format is the future. Too much has been invested on both sides and both sides are being competitive. In fact HD DVD has been getting an average 40% market share in Nielson Videoscan (and even a little more when you consider dollar volume, since HD DVD has 3 box sets in the top 10), which is an improvement over the first quarter of the year. So while Blu-ray is still outselling HD DVD, HD DVD is getting bigger market share than before. Finally, there's the inspiring success story of HD DVD Planet Earth. This title is selling a lot of players for the HD DVD format, since only that could explain why it consistently outsells the Blu-ray version by 30-50%. I think Planet Earth will have incredible staying power and will be a hot seller all the way through Xmas shopping season.

Speaking of which, many, many critical mass-priced HD DVD players will be sold this fall with low-priced HDTVs, they will go hand in hand. No longer will HDTV and HD discs be a luxury item as 32" HDTV prices will be easily under $500 and, like last year, will be very hot sellers. The only difference is that this year the HD DVD player will tag along for the ride.

HD DVD's "battle plan" will to be to respond to any price cuts on the Blu-ray side in order to assure that they have a significant advantage in what they feel most consumers consider most important. On the Blu-ray side, only Sony would probably consider engaging in a price war, since only they have something to lose. However Sony is already losing billions subsidizing the PS3 and they will play a losing game should they decide to play it. Furthermore HD DVD has a huge edge on Chinese player manufacture and this effect should be felt by this fall (hopefully).

MikeRox · 06-10-2007, 11:37 AM

Hmmmmm, I can't see HD DVD really being massive unless Blu Ray makes a serious mess up. Or they seriously pull their finger out and go on a mass marketing campaign this winter and more importantly, get some movies onto the format that will make people sit up and take notice.

The main reason I own HD DVD and not Blu Ray is quite simply price. I had a HDTV, I wanted to use it, I had an Xbox 360, it was a logical step.

I don't really know too much about the market overall, heck I don't really know how Videoscans sales figures are supposed to work :P But basically, the way I see it is we currently have 2 very similar formats throwing half assed punches at each other for supremacy.

Blu Ray currently has far more studio support, it gets banged on about time and time again. So naturally, this should help seal it for Blu Ray, yet weeks and months go by, and still the big name films, the ones that could drag people off the fences once and for all constantly go unannounced. It's all good and well having X number of studios, but if half of them are only commited on paper, it counts for nothing.

Universal and Studio Canal are HD DVD exclusive, but again, guilty of the same really. More marketing is needed, more content is needed but most of all, more awareness/in your face presence is needed. This xmas really is the HD DVD camps last chance saloon imo. If they get some top notch movies out, and these Chinese players surface in decent numbers, they can have an impact. If they don't make an impact this xmas, the format will probably be gone by 2009.

HD VHS · 06-11-2007, 02:42 AM

Quote:

I don't really know too much about the market overall, heck I don't really know how Videoscans sales figures are supposed to work :P But basically, the way I see it is we currently have 2 very similar formats throwing half assed punches at each other for supremacy.

That is so true about the half assed punches, I really can't see Toshiba giving up, but I can see Sony giving up [refer to umd,minidisc,memstick] HD DVD just seem to be not trying, yet Sony are really trying, I think once HD DVD start throwing BIG punches it will be on

MikeRox · 06-11-2007, 06:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HD VHS

That is so true about the half assed punches, I really can't see Toshiba giving up, but I can see Sony giving up [refer to umd,minidisc,memstick] HD DVD just seem to be not trying, yet Sony are really trying, I think once HD DVD start throwing BIG punches it will be on

I don't think Sony are really trying yet either. but unless Microsoft release an Xbox 360 with built in HD DVD drive. The PS3 alone could be an unstoppable Blu Ray force come late 2008 once the must have software is flowing. See thats mainstream HD movie entry, PS3 owners will already have a Blu Ray player, which means HD DVD stand alones could be £50, but people wouldn't bother with them.

Alot of it depends on the PS3s future performance, but unless Microsoft really capitalise on the Ps3s appauling software lineup and inaccessible price this Xmas, the PS3 will eventually find it's feet, just as the PS2 did.

HD VHS · 06-11-2007, 06:52 AM

Quote:

don't think Sony are really trying yet either. but unless Microsoft release an Xbox 360 with built in HD DVD drive. The PS3 alone could be an unstoppable Blu Ray force come late 2008 once the must have software is flowing. See thats mainstream HD movie entry, PS3 owners will already have a Blu Ray player, which means HD DVD stand alones could be £50, but people wouldn't bother with them.

Alot of it depends on the PS3s future performance, but unless Microsoft really capitalise on the Ps3s appauling software lineup and inaccessible price this Xmas, the PS3 will eventually find it's feet, just as the PS2 did.

PS2 was one of the most successful video games systems ever, I don't think the PS3 will be the same since the 360 is producing more quality games and so far better graphics, it's a shame, because I don't think MS will release a built in drive, then all the people with the attachment will uproar!
But the PS3 will fail, it is way to expensive and the games announced are very average, if they had any brains they would have made God of War 3 on launch, I bought a PS2 just for the first and the second God of War. I could only pray that they do build a built in drive, I have the attachment and wouldn't mind if they did.

MikeRox · 06-11-2007, 08:12 AM

To write the PS3 off already is very short sighted imo. It's lauched to hillarity really, as compared with it's competition, it's flopping big style. However we need to bear in mind that alot of it's "big hitters" are yet to make an appearance, and the console is the lead format for alot of major 2007/08 releases.

The game that actually sold the PS2 in Japan to gamers, was Winning Eleven. That is due out this summer, and will be the first proper next generation version (Pro Evo 6 was a joke). Metal Gear Solid 4, Final Fantasy XIII and Singstar (you wouldn't believe the selling power this title alone will have in Europe once the RRP of the format drops). The PS3s big guns are yet to hit, and the name "PlayStation" alone is a formidable asset in the games market.

HD VHS · 06-11-2007, 08:39 AM

Well the rumour is growing that MGS4 is coming to 360, i really think that will hurt Sony, it's a shame god of war is owned by Sony, that would have been nice for 360, maybe if MS offer them enough moula then they will give em the rights.

CochiseGuy · 06-11-2007, 09:51 AM

Quote:

What's the battle plan / how does HD DVD win?

Simple - HD DVD "wins" be merely remaining a competitive, viable alternative to Blu-ray.

The Blu-ray battle plan was always to dominate and eliminate. Then the BDA CE companies would enjoy a hefty premium on their players while the consumer gradually adopts to high def optical discs. The BDA studios would enjoy a heft 30% premium on their HD discs.

HD DVD has already shattered that plan, forcing BDA CE companies to slash prices by half on their 2nd gen players. Do you think they would have done that if HD DVD had gone away?

Fox was trying to get $40 MSRP for their BD releases. Meanwhile, I can buy Warner HD releases directly from them for under $16.

As long as HD DVD can maintain a 35-40% market share, it ain't going away and more & more studios will be envying Warner's huge lead in HD disc sales, releasing on both formats. When all studios eventually release on both formats, consumers will be free the chose a player that meets their budget & needs and buy the HD disc format it plays.

Ah! Too confusing for the consumer? I don't see folks in the game software section of BB buying a Wii game and trying to play it on their xBox. Nor do I see folks trying to buy a DirecTV DVR to record programs from their Dish Network service,

Gideon · 06-11-2007, 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeRox

To write the PS3 off already is very short sighted imo. It's lauched to hillarity really, as compared with it's competition, it's flopping big style. However we need to bear in mind that alot of it's "big hitters" are yet to make an appearance, and the console is the lead format for alot of major 2007/08 releases.

The game that actually sold the PS2 in Japan to gamers, was Winning Eleven. That is due out this summer, and will be the first proper next generation version (Pro Evo 6 was a joke). Metal Gear Solid 4, Final Fantasy XIII and Singstar (you wouldn't believe the selling power this title alone will have in Europe once the RRP of the format drops). The PS3s big guns are yet to hit, and the name "PlayStation" alone is a formidable asset in the games market.

The "lead" format for a lot of major 07/08 releases??? You need to explain this a bit better because I dont see it as the "lead" format, as much as I do certain "exclusive" releases. If that were the case I could say the 360 is the "lead" format with major releases such as Bioshock, Splinter Cell Conviction, AND the system seller- Halo 3, and many others. All I know is that the PS3 needs to be selling more than 82,000 consoles a month to keep up, because that number is being more than doubled by the 360, and tripled by the Wii. 82,000 is not a very good number. I dont see the fact that the PS2 is selling better as a good thing...

Speaking of exclusives GOW is still selling very well. As a matter of fact, my brother went out and bought an Elite with 2 controllers, year of Xbox gold, just because he played the game and was amazed. Both him and me have been very strong Playstation supporters but there is no denying the amount of games on the 360, the amount of exclusives, and the cheaper price with a "very likely" price cut coming for the holidays.

kbaker2002de · 06-11-2007, 11:20 AM

Where would the point be where domination is declared and one format becomes obsolete? 60/40 isn't it and that is basically where we have been since Nov or so. BluRay got a huge shot with the PS3, but that alone will not win this battle, nor I believe will price. How can BluRay win? Grow the margins to 70/30, 80/20 and 90/10 and start getting the Dual format studios to go BluRay exclusive and that I don't see. With the increasing number of HD-DVD players being sold, I think it has put a solid foot into the market. How could HD-DVD win? IF (and this is only and if) everyone keeps making a good profit on HD-DVD at a 30-40% market share, and (if) everyone is loosing money on BluRay with a 60-70% share, you will see poeple start giving it up.

I don't see that happening, I see HD-DVD with a solid foothold after this year, but the PS3 install base will prevent the Blu-Ray from completely going away. And with Warner sitting fat dumb and happy making money on HD releases of BOTH kinds, why would they stop?

My biggest hope, have all studios go to the THD disks and let the consumer deicde on which format/player fits their needs better.

Lee Stewart · 06-11-2007, 11:32 AM

Quote:

My biggest hope, have all studios go to the THD disks and let the consumer deicde on which format/player fits their needs better.

What, let the lowly consumer decide? You have to be kidding! You are aren't you? Come on and stop pulling my leg!

Don't you know that we consumers are like lemmings? We don't lead - we follow!

MikeRox · 06-11-2007, 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gideon

The "lead" format for a lot of major 07/08 releases??? You need to explain this a bit better because I dont see it as the "lead" format, as much as I do certain "exclusive" releases. If that were the case I could say the 360 is the "lead" format with major releases such as Bioshock, Splinter Cell Conviction, AND the system seller- Halo 3, and many others. All I know is that the PS3 needs to be selling more than 82,000 consoles a month to keep up, because that number is being more than doubled by the 360, and tripled by the Wii. 82,000 is not a very good number. I dont see the fact that the PS2 is selling better as a good thing...

You misunderstand my point, (the PS3 is the only next gen console I don't own btw) by lead format, I mean it is being developed around the PS3 hardware, and then "ported" to the Xbox 360. Haze and Pro Evolution Soccer 7/Winning Eleven Eleven are 2 big ones, but there are also games like Metal Gear Solid 4 etc as well. It has nothing to do with actual number of sales at market and like it or not, for some reason (I don't know, I'd rather it was the 360 personally) in most cases the PS3 is the "lead" development format. I'm guessing they're predicting a surge in sales in 2008 and/or didn't expect the console to bomb so badly early in it's life.

The PSOne outsold the PS2 at this stage in it's life too, so it's certainly not without precedant. The only difference this time really for Sony from last gen, is that there is actually some proper competition to contend with. Believe me, I'm far from a PS3 fanboy, I'm just looking at it objectively. "PlayStation" is still a household brand name. PlayStation 3 is still the console most casual PS2 owners will move onto without even really thinking about it once the PS2 releases dry up and the price has dropped.

As insignificant as lead format for big name multi format titles might sound, the only exibit I really need to demonstrate the impact it can have, is Metal Gear Solid 2. The Xbox version was technically inferior to the vastly lesser powered PlayStation 2 version. If as in this case, the lead format is actually a more powerful format than the port is going to it'll lead to a noticibly inferior Xbox 360 version, regardless of what the console is actually capable of.

This is the reason so many Dreamcast games ported to PS2 were worse than the Dreamcast original visually, I don't think anyone will deny that the Dreamcast is a less powerful console than the PS2 now. I'm rambling a bit now, but yeah, the Xbox 360's exclusives like Gears of War and Halo 3, mean absolutely nothing against titles such as Winning Eleven. It sounds daft, as they're definitely great titles (I don't like Halo 1 or 2, but the Halo 3 beta was amazing!) but in the grand scheme of things, they aren't the system selling titles to the mass market, that alot of gamers would like to believe. I think 100 million + PlayStation 2 consoles vs 22 million Gamecubes and 24 million Xbox's speaks volumes, as personally I think the Gamecube had by far the best lineup last generation.

mshulman · 06-11-2007, 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeRox

(I don't like Halo 1 or 2, but the Halo 3 beta was amazing!)

Did you really play Halo 1 or 2? Halo 3's online play is essentiall Halo 2's in High Def, with a few extras.

How you can think Halo 3 is amazing and not have liked Halo 2 is just beyond my understanding

06-10-2007, 10:44 AM	#1
LordGamer Lord of Gaming Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Pittsburgh, PA Posts: 1,788	HD DVD Supporters... What's the battle plan / how does HD DVD win? I originally was going to add this to my post (#38) in the "Why I think HD DVD will win, and why Bluray sucks." thread, but I felt the following deserved its own thread (for various reasons, but I just want to get to the heart of my topic). I know this could seem like I'm going back to the good ole' days, but the HD DVD fanboy success philosophy seems to rely on Sony fudging up. Exclusive support going neutral, higher player cost, etc. It gives the impression that basically, for HD DVD to succeed, they have to hope for BR mistakes...in turn, HD DVD not having control over its own future. So, I ask... What happens when / if BR players are the same price and the studio support still lies with Sony? I am sincerely asking to the HD DVD fans, what gives you hope, belief that HD DVD may be successful over Blu-ray? Or do you believe "to each their own," meaning both may be successful and co-exist? I'm not a BR supporter or an HD DVD hater. I view both formats as nothing more than niche markets. That being said, whenever I read discussions like "Blu-ray sucks" or "HD DVD is a clear winner," they both seem reliant that the BR format destorys itself. And not just on this forum, but others as well. Which got me thinking... At the beginning, it was HD DVD's early start...but then BR launched and surpassed them. Next, it was the storage and "only on paper" 50 GB discs. Now, the 50 GB discs are here. It then moved on to HD audio codecs, specifically, BR lacking them. As of late, many BR players have been updated supporting new features and codecs. Then, of course, there is the pricing...BR being much more expensive. But now, Sony is releasing a $500 machine, other price drops have taken effect, and there are solid reports / rumors of more to follow this holiday season. Presently, it basically has come down to talking about if current BR players will be updateable to support (of all things) certain, possible special features. Followed by, if / when BD+ is cracked...which I must admit I find funny. "Just wait till BD+ is cracked, then Disney and Fox will leave." What's HD DVD copyright protection system (I honestly don't know, is there a unique one)? Wouldn't some protection (BR) be better than none / a little (HD DVD)? I get the visual of a runner saying, "Once that guys slows down to my [behind] pace, all of his fans will leave him and join me." Even with the early setbacks and Toshiba clearly having a better launch plan, Sony in its original "Which way did he go?" state of mind, is still (currently) winning the battle. Now, Sony appears to be getting their act together. I said from the beginning, this battle was going to last years. Though, I recall many in the HD DVD camp acting as if the battle was over before BR ever launched. Which if the battle was only scheduled for a 12 month fight, HD DVD would of won. But considering time has brought many gifts for Sony, HD DVD needs to do more, as oppose to waiting. Ok, ok... I see some of the HD DVD vets pulling out the little, old LG voodoo dolls, while the new fans are getting needles. But I'm not trying to throw shots while the ref isn't looking. I'm curious to know what HD DVD fans believe will be the battle plan moving forward. And frankly, I don't want BR boys chanting LordGamer in the streets or yelling how BR is better than beer filled steaks. I'm looking for HD DVD supporters thoughts (not bashing) and not BR praise. Strawberry, if you don't mind... If I don't make it, please tell my girlfriend I love her and tell everyone to keep the bleep away from my Simpsons figures...girlfriend included. __________________ LordGamer Profile - George Carlin, R.I.P. 06.22.08 HD Qualifications... -- Westinghouse 47" 1080p LCD (LVM-47w1) -- Scientific Atlanta HD Receiver & DVR (8300HD), Comcast -- Sony Playstation 3 -- Microsoft Xbox 360

06-11-2007, 11:20 AM	#12
kbaker2002de Even HD can be Reasonable Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Bear, DE Posts: 540	Neither format is going away Where would the point be where domination is declared and one format becomes obsolete? 60/40 isn't it and that is basically where we have been since Nov or so. BluRay got a huge shot with the PS3, but that alone will not win this battle, nor I believe will price. How can BluRay win? Grow the margins to 70/30, 80/20 and 90/10 and start getting the Dual format studios to go BluRay exclusive and that I don't see. With the increasing number of HD-DVD players being sold, I think it has put a solid foot into the market. How could HD-DVD win? IF (and this is only and if) everyone keeps making a good profit on HD-DVD at a 30-40% market share, and (if) everyone is loosing money on BluRay with a 60-70% share, you will see poeple start giving it up. I don't see that happening, I see HD-DVD with a solid foothold after this year, but the PS3 install base will prevent the Blu-Ray from completely going away. And with Warner sitting fat dumb and happy making money on HD releases of BOTH kinds, why would they stop? My biggest hope, have all studios go to the THD disks and let the consumer deicde on which format/player fits their needs better.

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06-10-2007, 11:11 AM	#2
HD VHS High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Australia Posts: 987	Wow nice post, you have some very valid points, too be totally honest with some of these replies you do LordGamer, you have swayed my mind abit and made me see 2 views, but I just think that with all going Sony's way (seriously, the studio support they have is phenomenal) they cant seem to put HD DVD away, there is something more to this story, HD DVD is doing something right, and I can just see them breaking this war wide open, I can't give you a straight answer how, but I think they will, it might be them getting a big studio to back them (ie Fox or Disney?) might no happen though, although I can see the other side, if BluRay players come out cheap, then it will not be a good signal for HD DVD, but as I said they are doing something right, becuase BluRay just can't seem to shake them...

06-10-2007, 11:32 AM	#3
bruceames Moderator Join Date: May 2006 Location: San Rafael, CA Posts: 10,170	Nice thread, LG. At this point I have very little hope that HD DVD will actually defeat Blu-ray. For it to happen HD DVD would need help from their opponent: namely the PS3 tanking. I don't rule that possibility out, however it's rather unlikely. I see dual format in the future, with both sides coexisting by virtue of low-priced dual format players. Nevertheless, I am very optimistic about the format's future, as it does have several advantages that I pointed out in the advantages thread (most notably cost and adaptability). Blu-ray supporters tend to overemphasize the studio advantage but the fact remains that Blu-ray only has about 12% more content available and also that HD DVD has about 20 more titles in the release schedule pipeline at this time. Furthermore there are far more unique HD DVD titles that can be imported than there are Blu-ray. So in the end, while Blu-ray does have more studio support, so far it really hasn't manifested itself. My real optimism though lies in HD DVD's trump card: price. It has been shown repeatable how important the $199 price point is for CE products, and I know now that HD DVD will hit it this holiday season. I actually expect HD DVD players (put together) to outsell the PS3 by this October on a monthly basis. No one really knows (except for Toshiba and a few priveleged insiders) at what rate standalone HD DVD players are selling right now, but I think its over 50K. Retailers are reporting 5-10 times higher sales with the Toshiba promotion and most Costcos are now selling the unit for $249. Blu-ray standalone sales will pick up significantly when they get under the $500 price point, but still sales will be relative to the price points, and rise exponentially with linear price cuts (as is always the case). 12% more selection is not going to win over nearly as many people as will players that cost $200-$300 less. And frankly, with 400-500 titles available in each format, many (if not most) won't even notice. The PS3 may have a $100 price cut, but you're still talking $500, and that's still limited market pricing. The PS3 will gradually be bought more mainly for gaming as standalone prices fall while the PS3 price doesn't. Universal has recently stated that they think the format war is good for consumers, and that should tell anyone right there that they have absolutely no plans to go neutral. They have known the importance of their exclusive status since day one, they have a plan, they have a goal, and that is long-term replication on the HD DVD format. They made a choice, and they will see it through. Besides, they are the leader of the US HD DVD-A. Furthermore, nothing has happened in this format war to alarm Universal into reconsidering their position. Sales are still very small compared to DVD, but that's to be expected given these formats are only one year old and that only 20% of the US market have HDTV to begin with. These formats are thus constrained by HDTV growth, and often-times this fact gets overlooked and the format war takes the blame for slow sales (which are actually close to what DVD was in the same time frame...with a full market to work with!) However, when it's all said and done, I am virtually certain that dual format is the future. Too much has been invested on both sides and both sides are being competitive. In fact HD DVD has been getting an average 40% market share in Nielson Videoscan (and even a little more when you consider dollar volume, since HD DVD has 3 box sets in the top 10), which is an improvement over the first quarter of the year. So while Blu-ray is still outselling HD DVD, HD DVD is getting bigger market share than before. Finally, there's the inspiring success story of HD DVD Planet Earth. This title is selling a lot of players for the HD DVD format, since only that could explain why it consistently outsells the Blu-ray version by 30-50%. I think Planet Earth will have incredible staying power and will be a hot seller all the way through Xmas shopping season. Speaking of which, many, many critical mass-priced HD DVD players will be sold this fall with low-priced HDTVs, they will go hand in hand. No longer will HDTV and HD discs be a luxury item as 32" HDTV prices will be easily under $500 and, like last year, will be very hot sellers. The only difference is that this year the HD DVD player will tag along for the ride. HD DVD's "battle plan" will to be to respond to any price cuts on the Blu-ray side in order to assure that they have a significant advantage in what they feel most consumers consider most important. On the Blu-ray side, only Sony would probably consider engaging in a price war, since only they have something to lose. However Sony is already losing billions subsidizing the PS3 and they will play a losing game should they decide to play it. Furthermore HD DVD has a huge edge on Chinese player manufacture and this effect should be felt by this fall (hopefully). __________________ Blu-rays: 55 Latest purchases: John Adams, Gone With the Wind, Up, Rocky: The Undisputed Collection Last edited by bruceames; 06-10-2007 at 11:59 AM.

06-10-2007, 11:37 AM	#4
MikeRox Blu Blu Skies! :D Join Date: May 2007 Location: Huddersfield, United Kingdom Posts: 12,417	Hmmmmm, I can't see HD DVD really being massive unless Blu Ray makes a serious mess up. Or they seriously pull their finger out and go on a mass marketing campaign this winter and more importantly, get some movies onto the format that will make people sit up and take notice. The main reason I own HD DVD and not Blu Ray is quite simply price. I had a HDTV, I wanted to use it, I had an Xbox 360, it was a logical step. I don't really know too much about the market overall, heck I don't really know how Videoscans sales figures are supposed to work :P But basically, the way I see it is we currently have 2 very similar formats throwing half assed punches at each other for supremacy. Blu Ray currently has far more studio support, it gets banged on about time and time again. So naturally, this should help seal it for Blu Ray, yet weeks and months go by, and still the big name films, the ones that could drag people off the fences once and for all constantly go unannounced. It's all good and well having X number of studios, but if half of them are only commited on paper, it counts for nothing. Universal and Studio Canal are HD DVD exclusive, but again, guilty of the same really. More marketing is needed, more content is needed but most of all, more awareness/in your face presence is needed. This xmas really is the HD DVD camps last chance saloon imo. If they get some top notch movies out, and these Chinese players surface in decent numbers, they can have an impact. If they don't make an impact this xmas, the format will probably be gone by 2009.

06-11-2007, 08:12 AM	#8
MikeRox Blu Blu Skies! :D Join Date: May 2007 Location: Huddersfield, United Kingdom Posts: 12,417	To write the PS3 off already is very short sighted imo. It's lauched to hillarity really, as compared with it's competition, it's flopping big style. However we need to bear in mind that alot of it's "big hitters" are yet to make an appearance, and the console is the lead format for alot of major 2007/08 releases. The game that actually sold the PS2 in Japan to gamers, was Winning Eleven. That is due out this summer, and will be the first proper next generation version (Pro Evo 6 was a joke). Metal Gear Solid 4, Final Fantasy XIII and Singstar (you wouldn't believe the selling power this title alone will have in Europe once the RRP of the format drops). The PS3s big guns are yet to hit, and the name "PlayStation" alone is a formidable asset in the games market.

06-11-2007, 08:39 AM	#9
HD VHS High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Australia Posts: 987	Well the rumour is growing that MGS4 is coming to 360, i really think that will hurt Sony, it's a shame god of war is owned by Sony, that would have been nice for 360, maybe if MS offer them enough moula then they will give em the rights.