Why I think HD DVD will win, and why Bluray sucks.

**PFC5** · 06-10-2007, 04:09 AM

Disney actually worked closely with MS on the HDi interactive portion of the HD DVD spec. They actually wanted HDi rather than BD-J but got outvoted in the BDA from what I have read many months ago.

LionsGate is said to have HD DVD transfers done and could go neutral, but they are not a MAJOR studio as some sites like to pretend they are.

Studios DO like copy protection more than anything else including PQ/SQ. I feel if we let studios dictate this much for a empty protection "feeling" they get, then we are really screwed down the road. I am all for protecting content, and I do not like pirates but I hate when they do this and it hurts honest customers. Lets face it, copy protection on digital media WILL be cracked no matter what they do. I thought it would take much longer than it actually did with these formats, but now I think it might be weeks before BD+ gets cracked when it finally does show up.

If BD+ gets cracked, you can expect Fox/Disney to just go neutral then. I guess I feel that the BD format NEEDS BD+ to be uncrackable or else once studios lose that security why wouldn't they want to make money on BOTH formats? If that happens who would pay more for a BD player with less features compared to HD DVD?

HD VHS · 06-10-2007, 04:47 AM

So your saying if BluRay did get cracked, then Fox and Disney might go with HD DVD? NOW that would be awesome

But isnt Bluray already cracked? Becuase I have seen BluRay rips in WMV format?

Maybe it's just my ignorance, why are there rips on the net?

I know HD DVD has been cracked, I have backed up my originals with my 360 dvd drive, just for mucking around, they are BIG as. But yeah I delete em straight away, no point when you buy the movies

Lee Stewart · 06-10-2007, 05:48 AM

Here is the list of HD DVD players. More than you thought?

Toshiba HD-A1
Toshiba HD-A2
Toshiba HD-A20
Toshiba HD-XA1
Toshiba HD-XA2
LG BH100 Dual HD-DVD/Bluray
RCA HDV5000
Xbox 360 Add On
Toshiba HD-D2
Toshiba HD-D1
HD-EP10
HD-E1
HD-XE1

So if BD is technically superior and has a much higher studio content (which we all agree hasn't done anything for them) . . . then why isn't BD selling at ratios of 10 to 1 as opposed to 2 to 1 or 3 to 1?

Why isn't BD pulling ahead week after week? If everything is in your favor - why is HD DVD still here and why is it doing well?

Oh yea . . . forgot . . . the ultimate trump card . . . price. Pesky little item like that isn't it?

borromini · 06-10-2007, 07:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LordGamer

No offense, but that is the most important part. Not to mention, the part that mainstream consumers will be most concerned with. I don't care if HD DVD players drop to $100, if there is a lacking selection, you won't be using it much (granted, lower price could mean more sales, in turn, more studio support - I tell both sides)...

It won't matter much when dual format players are around. That's what would likely matter most to mainstream consumers.

mischa316 · 06-10-2007, 08:07 AM

I have both players and I have actually done a test on 2 HD DVD's & 2 Blu Rays. I rented both Aeon Flux & Leathal Weapon. Aeon Flux was the same on both format's but the audio was better on Blu Ray. Now the Audio on Leathal Weapon was better on Blu Ray again and the video looked better on HD DVD. I might try this with We Were Soldiers as well!! I know the Blu Ray is out now!! I know there are a few other one's I could try this with but I haven't yet. I do have the Mission Impossible set on HD DVD maybe I should rent the Blu Ray of that and test those 2 out as well!! I'll let you know what I think.
Mischa.

Lee Stewart · 06-10-2007, 08:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by borromini

It won't matter much when dual format players are around. That's what would likely matter most to mainstream consumers.

This is a theory. And when will we see a $300 DF player? 12 to 18 months from now? That is a long time in this situation.

And a DF player still doesn't address the high cost of the HDD movies. Cheap players and expensive movies isn't going to sway the masses to jump in. It has to be a combination of both.

And IMO with the studios doing as poorly as they have been they will not drop the cost of the discs until they absolutely have to. The only studio that is doing something about the cost of the movies is Sony as they reap profits from other areas of CE. And they are the only one who does this.

People don't care what happened 10 years ago (or for that matter 10 months ago) as far as DVD. They are buying DVD players below $100 and spending less than $20 (many times less than $15) for a movie. THAT is the situation that has to be addressed.

And it isn't.

EVERYONE and I mean EVERYONE who was/is associated with HD thought this was going to be the fix all, save all, huge profit maker. And after 6 years it turns out that the only two segments of the market that are making a killing is the consumer

and the delivery systems like CBL and SAT.

The big promise of higher profits with the sale of HD CE's just didn't come to pass. When you see sales up 30%, 40%, even 70%, but profits are up less than 10%, you know there is a problem.

http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/06/09...plasma-market/

And HDD is just a small part of the issue. A very small part. Yes it gets tons of press and articles and websites dedicated to the format war, but look at the last three months numbers. See any REAL progress? I don't.

daleb · 06-10-2007, 08:26 AM

Unfortunately we don't have enough consumers out there yet that can appreciate the fact they can still have their standard DVDs and have them look a lot better than they do on those <$100 players. AND still be able to play HD disks as well. And for not much more money.

LordGamer · 06-10-2007, 08:32 AM

Lee, is your post a reply to me... Help me out, man and make a reference or quote to me specifically. My post is 11 up.

Anyways, as far as the player selection, I mean brand backing. Until Onkyo's recent announcement, the Toshiba was the only one really producing.

As far as...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

So if BD is technically superior and has a much higher studio content (which we all agree hasn't done anything for them) . . . then why isn't BD selling at ratios of 10 to 1 as opposed to 2 to 1 or 3 to 1?

Why isn't BD pulling ahead week after week? If everything is in your favor - why is HD DVD still here and why is it doing well?

Oh yea . . . forgot . . . the ultimate trump card . . . price. Pesky little item like that isn't it?

...I already gave my thoughts on it. While it maybe a little ways off (and it's not needed now), what's going to happen when a standalone Blu-ray player is $300 and the HD DVD is $300...Toshiba won't be able to keep cutting the price. And I did say a "little ways," but who knows what the holiday season may bring (i.e. cheaper BR players).

Quote:

Originally Posted by borromini

It won't matter much when dual format players are around. That's what would likely matter most to mainstream consumers.

Well, it will still be content. Besides, when dual format players are available, it will be more of a reason for studios to publish on one format. Seeing as the major players currently favor Blu-ray, unless that were to change, I would imagine dual format players would hurt HD DVD much more.

Finally, on this whole copyright situation, some people are believing it's more of a factor than it really is to the BR exclusive studios. I'm not saying Fox or Disney don't care, but when BR copyprotection gets cracked, don't go opening wine bottles just yet. Fox and Disney have invested into the BR format and are board members, but some here would give an impression they have one foot out the door...it's just not going to happen that easy.

Lee Stewart · 06-10-2007, 08:54 AM

LG:

Quote:

Well, it will still be content. Besides, when dual format players are available, it will be more of a reason for studios to publish on one format. Seeing as the major players currently favor Blu-ray, unless that were to change, I would imagine dual format players would hurt HD DVD much more.

I don't agree with your position. DF players, when affordable can only help HD DVD. Once you take the player out of the equation, then all you have left is the cost of the movies and on the whole, HD DVD's are cheaper. Not by much, I grant you, but some.

Exclusive studio content becomes moot when i can buy either format and play it in my single DF player.

But again, when is this going to happen? It sure isn't going to happen this year. Next year? - maybe - probably, but that is a long time away.

Also keep in mind that HD DVD players are flying out of stores and websites. Every single sale can be a potential buyer of HD DVD's. The same cannot be said for BD. Sales of PS3 are way down. The Sam. player is expensive, the Panasonic is an old player just updated, and the Sony S300 player isn't here yet.

You can prognosticate all you want - but that doesn't change the current situation as it stands.

unotis · 06-10-2007, 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by samcan07

Maybe Fox wants the disc protection that HD DVD doesn't offer. Look for great Fox titles on Blu ray in the not to distant future!!!

Unfortunately, the so-called disc protection has already been hacked and if history is any example, any changes they make to correct that problem will be hacked within a very short time also.

So if FOX is basing their decisions on that, they deserve to lose because that is not good business sense!

HD VHS · 06-10-2007, 10:03 AM

Wow... just got back and there is a million replies.

I think Lee hit the nail on the head, after all this time and the studio support BD has, they can only etch there noses in front, I really don't wanna think what it would be like for BluRay if HD DVD had half the support they do, it would be a massacre, IF fox or Disney end up going neutral or exclusive, it's goodnight BluRay, just like UMD, MiniDisc, MemStick, Betamax and all the other crap Sony has tried to force down our throat.

unotis · 06-10-2007, 10:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LordGamer

Well, it will still be content. Besides, when dual format players are available, it will be more of a reason for studios to publish on one format. Seeing as the major players currently favor Blu-ray, unless that were to change, I would imagine dual format players would hurt HD DVD much more.

I disagree with that statement, if dual format players become the norm it is Blu-Ray that will be hurt, the HD DVDs are less costly to produce and actually less prone to damage (proven).

Once the main reason to produce exclusive Blu-Ray discs ceases to be a factor, inorder to provide content for the Blu-Ray players being sold and that will cease if dual format players take over.

Because the consumer's will buy the dual format players to hedge their bet in the format war and the preferred major High Def. disc will become the HD DVD because of the lower cost of production and it more dependable because of it being less prone to damage (too thin of coating on Blu-Ray discs).

And as I stated before the copy protection is a not a real factor because of hacking (it's like putting a lock on your house that every crook in town has a key to or can easily get a key made for).

MikeRox · 06-10-2007, 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HD VHS

Wow... just got back and there is a million replies.

I think Lee hit the nail on the head, after all this time and the studio support BD has, they can only etch there noses in front, I really don't wanna think what it would be like for BluRay if HD DVD had half the support they do, it would be a massacre, IF fox or Disney end up going neutral or exclusive, it's goodnight BluRay, just like UMD, MiniDisc, MemStick, Betamax and all the other crap Sony has tried to force down our throat.

The amount of Support is a bit of a null at the moment as Fox have yet to release a single film, there isn't a single big name Disney film yet either. Meaning their support is all but token. Unless they start embracing HD formats with serious support and blockbuster flicks, they'll both remain niche.

Universal have finally started to pull their finger out. I think they were running scared with the PS3 launch and held off to see what sort of impact that had on the market. But even then, they're not releasing the big name films that will bring more film enthusiasts into the game.

If the studios won't take HD seriously, why the hell should they expect consumers to?

GLOW · 06-10-2007, 10:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HD VHS

k, this is my first post, I know I should not be getting cocky on my first post but I have been doing countless reading on who is winning, who thinks they are going to win etc.

First things first, I love my DVD collection, so when I want to really grow my HD DVD collection I wanna see the names DVD and HD DVD in my collection, not the name Blu Ray, maybe that was a silly reason to pick HD DVD...

My next reason, the video quality on HD DVD is far superior to Blu Ray. When I saw MI3 running in 1080p on a sony bravia, I asked the salesman, why are there maggots crawling on Tom Cruises face? He simply said thats just the video transfer of alot of Blur ray movies. He then put in MI3 in on the same screen running at 1080p and 720p and I was shocked to see that the HD DVD versions looked better running both on 1080 and 720.

Now what all these Blu Ray fan boys forget to realize about this crappy format (yes I will admit I am a fanboy of hd dvd but for good reason) is that Blu ray thinks they are coming out strong with all these titles and all these companies backing them, but they dont realize the MASS market hasnt even been close to switching over to HD. So when a rich man with his big PLASMA (not the superior LCD) walks in a says I wanna go HD, the salesman is going to sell him Bluray becuase thats what most retail stores are stocking. Because I know here in Australia HD DVD is destroying bluray. EB games has now shoved there bluray movies into the bottom corner of the store becuase they are not selling becuase, surprise surprise, the PS3 is not selling. Well done Sony, you are relying on the PS3 for blu ray to win, not very good considering the PS3 sucks.

So WHEN mummies and daddies walk into a store, and good old grandpa and grandma and they wanna upgrade to HD (in a few more years time) they are going to walk in and see, HD DVD, and BluRay, now by that time, Toshiba will actually have come into the market properly and use their big guns when the MASS market is ready to join in the HD experience. They are going to see the 3 little letter D V D.
Hopefully by then salespeople will have jumped off the sony penis and sell what actually better quality, not what nerds love becuase it holds more Gigabytes (buy a hardrive)

It is just weird how a reputable site like Digital Bits is siding with Blur Ray?

Now I heard there are rumours (dont know if they are true), that fox might be going to HD DVD or being neutral, if this happens, then the war will truly be over, if not by the PS3 failing, which judging by the figures, it will. Oh and who cares about Japan that Bluray is winning, we all know Sony owns Japan, focus on the rest of Asia where hd dvd is winning.

Cheers.

Wow. I don't even know where to begin here.............. I'm at a loss for words........

Most people just drink the red kool-aid. You've gotta be mainlining it into a major artery or something.

HD VHS · 06-10-2007, 10:28 AM

I think maybe they are waiting for prices of the players to fall before bringing out the big guns?

06-10-2007, 04:09 AM	#31
PFC5 Super Moderator Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 31,316	Disney actually worked closely with MS on the HDi interactive portion of the HD DVD spec. They actually wanted HDi rather than BD-J but got outvoted in the BDA from what I have read many months ago. LionsGate is said to have HD DVD transfers done and could go neutral, but they are not a MAJOR studio as some sites like to pretend they are. Studios DO like copy protection more than anything else including PQ/SQ. I feel if we let studios dictate this much for a empty protection "feeling" they get, then we are really screwed down the road. I am all for protecting content, and I do not like pirates but I hate when they do this and it hurts honest customers. Lets face it, copy protection on digital media WILL be cracked no matter what they do. I thought it would take much longer than it actually did with these formats, but now I think it might be weeks before BD+ gets cracked when it finally does show up. If BD+ gets cracked, you can expect Fox/Disney to just go neutral then. I guess I feel that the BD format NEEDS BD+ to be uncrackable or else once studios lose that security why wouldn't they want to make money on BOTH formats? If that happens who would pay more for a BD player with less features compared to HD DVD? __________________ Denon AVR-887 Klipsch RP-5 Pwred Towers (mains) (525 watts peak each 12"Subs) All Klipsch RC-25(ctr),(2)SS1(surr),(2)SS1(rearSurr) Toshiba (2)HD-A20,PS3,BD35 For SACD/DVD-A Samsung HD-841 Panny 50pz80u plasma SETTINGS RCA HD50LPW162 50"DLP w/HD2+ SA 3250HD 47" LCD+Yamaha5790+HD-A1(bedroom) Harmony 680 + (2) 670s (amazing remote/support) Game room with Onkyo receiver & B&W Speakers The_Cable_Game Take the high ground and be happier PSN: PFC5 Last edited by PFC5; 06-10-2007 at 04:12 AM.

06-10-2007, 08:07 AM	#35
mischa316 Neutral for now!! Join Date: May 2007 Location: Florida Posts: 354	I have both players and I have actually done a test on 2 HD DVD's & 2 Blu Rays. I rented both Aeon Flux & Leathal Weapon. Aeon Flux was the same on both format's but the audio was better on Blu Ray. Now the Audio on Leathal Weapon was better on Blu Ray again and the video looked better on HD DVD. I might try this with We Were Soldiers as well!! I know the Blu Ray is out now!! I know there are a few other one's I could try this with but I haven't yet. I do have the Mission Impossible set on HD DVD maybe I should rent the Blu Ray of that and test those 2 out as well!! I'll let you know what I think. Mischa. __________________ Toshiba HD-A2 21 HD DVD'S. 30 Blu Rays. Philips 42" Plasma W/ Ambilight. XM Satellite Radio Pioneer INNO.

06-10-2007, 08:26 AM	#37
daleb High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Clovis, CA Posts: 7,584	Unfortunately we don't have enough consumers out there yet that can appreciate the fact they can still have their standard DVDs and have them look a lot better than they do on those <$100 players. AND still be able to play HD disks as well. And for not much more money. __________________ Samsung PN50A650 plasma, Arcam AVR350, Dali Ikon6 (Vokal2&OnWalls), Outlaw Audio LFM-1EX sub, Anti-Mode 8033B, Oppo Digital BDP-83SE, Roku Digital, Furman Elite power conditioner

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06-10-2007, 04:47 AM	#32
HD VHS High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Australia Posts: 987	So your saying if BluRay did get cracked, then Fox and Disney might go with HD DVD? NOW that would be awesome But isnt Bluray already cracked? Becuase I have seen BluRay rips in WMV format? Maybe it's just my ignorance, why are there rips on the net? I know HD DVD has been cracked, I have backed up my originals with my 360 dvd drive, just for mucking around, they are BIG as. But yeah I delete em straight away, no point when you buy the movies

06-10-2007, 05:48 AM	#33
Lee Stewart Behold - the future! Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Albuquerque, NM Age: 58 Posts: 26,401	Here is the list of HD DVD players. More than you thought? Toshiba HD-A1 Toshiba HD-A2 Toshiba HD-A20 Toshiba HD-XA1 Toshiba HD-XA2 LG BH100 Dual HD-DVD/Bluray RCA HDV5000 Xbox 360 Add On Toshiba HD-D2 Toshiba HD-D1 HD-EP10 HD-E1 HD-XE1 So if BD is technically superior and has a much higher studio content (which we all agree hasn't done anything for them) . . . then why isn't BD selling at ratios of 10 to 1 as opposed to 2 to 1 or 3 to 1? Why isn't BD pulling ahead week after week? If everything is in your favor - why is HD DVD still here and why is it doing well? Oh yea . . . forgot . . . the ultimate trump card . . . price. Pesky little item like that isn't it?

06-10-2007, 10:03 AM	#41
HD VHS High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Australia Posts: 987	Wow... just got back and there is a million replies. I think Lee hit the nail on the head, after all this time and the studio support BD has, they can only etch there noses in front, I really don't wanna think what it would be like for BluRay if HD DVD had half the support they do, it would be a massacre, IF fox or Disney end up going neutral or exclusive, it's goodnight BluRay, just like UMD, MiniDisc, MemStick, Betamax and all the other crap Sony has tried to force down our throat.

06-10-2007, 10:28 AM	#45
HD VHS High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Australia Posts: 987	I think maybe they are waiting for prices of the players to fall before bringing out the big guns?