HD DVD players

BobY · 05-21-2006, 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Borromini

The studios aren't even close to thinking that HD-DVD is establishing itself as the defacto standard...it's just too damn early. Your suggestion may gain some credence if say Sony announced that BD players will be delayed 'til the 2007 holiday season. It would have to be that kind of a huge disaster for HD-DVD to get the break needed.

I didn't say the studios *would* switch, just that this might be Toshiba's marketing strategy to get them to think about it (or at least to throw their support behind both HD DVD as well as Blu-Ray). Let's face it, if HD DVD gains significant studio support before Blu-Ray is established, the format war *would be* over. No amount of Blu-Ray "technical superiority" would matter at that point.

Quote:

Originally Posted by PFC5

Stores are selling the RCA at the same $500.00 price as the HD-A1, not $100.00 lower.

They do not have costs to "amortize" but they do have licensing fees to pay to Toshiba for every unit made I imagine. It is a case of "6 of one, half dozen of another" I think here. Now Toshiba could be thinking; "we already paid the R&D price, so we can lower the licensing to recover that R&D over a longer period to help promote the format", but that is pure speculation.

If I'm reading the press releases correctly, the *suggested retail* price of the RCA HDV5000 is $499, not $599 like the HD-A1. They may be selling at the same price, but that's because the HD-A1 is being discounted and the HDV5000 is not (yet). I expect that eventually the RCA will be selling for less than the HD-A1.

While RCA must certainly be paying licensing fees (and may very well be buying the HDV5000 outright from Toshiba), that can't be anything compared to the tens of millions of dollars Toshiba spent in developing HD DVD.

borromini · 05-21-2006, 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobY

...Let's face it, if HD DVD gains significant studio support before Blu-Ray is established, the format war *would be* over. No amount of Blu-Ray "technical superiority" would matter at that point...

But that's just my point...HD-DVD gaining significant studio support will not occur this year because there won't be any significant volume of sales for 12 to 18 months. This is for the simple reason that unlike the move from VHS to DVD where all you needed was a TV, this market's growth relies on the critical mass adoption of HDTVs. An event that will happen, but not within the next year. It's at that point in which the studios begin to then make meaningful assessments on which format to fully support based on consumer's preference. If Blu-Ray had still not been released by that point, then the scenario you described as a possibility may in fact happen.

BobY · 05-21-2006, 05:52 PM

I wouldn't argue with you, but I think a wild card might be if they very quickly drive down the cost of double-sided hybrid discs, with the HD DVD version of a film on one side and the conventional DVD version on the other. They could then phase out conventional DVD production and suddenly everyone buying a disc is buying HD DVD whether they have HD or not.

In this way, conventional DVD buyers would help pay for the transition to HD...

borromini · 05-21-2006, 06:52 PM

Sure, that's a possibility. However, I think a more applicable wild-card would be if they aggressively drove down the cost of the HD-DVD players immediately so that folks who still just buy/rent regular DVDs can continue to do so but also invest in a player that has a future while they prepare to buy an HDTV down the road. The prices will eventually drop, but I'm referring to a crash down on prices now rather than following normal supply/demand cycles.

**PFC5** · 05-21-2006, 06:59 PM

BobY:

That is the scenario I have been saying for months would clinch it for the format that did this, BUT it would require it to be sold for the same price as SD DVD or within $2-4.00 it at least.

This SHOULD make the studios happy because then they would have the more secure format they want out there with the hacked format going away. It would be worth it for the studios to eat some profit margin just to make that happen I would think.

AFAIK, The Toshiba HD-A1 has a MSRP of $499.00, not $599.00. Amazon has the MSRP price of $599.00 overinflated so it will look like it is on sale, or at a bargain discount. Here is a link to the MSRP on Toshiba's site:

http://www.tacp.toshiba.com/dvd/product.asp?model=hd-a1

BobY · 05-21-2006, 11:25 PM

I don't know what I was thinking... I thought I'd seen the HD-A1 MSRP at $599 and an article saying the RCA would be $100 cheaper than the HD-A1, but that's not the case. Sorry.

I agree driving down the price of the player to within range of conventional DVD players would do more for average consumer acceptance, however it's going to be a lot easier to drive down the price of the discs quickly. Remember I'm postulating the marketing strategy is to convince the studios to support HD DVD, not so much sell the consumers (at least at this point). The studios might find a single hybrid disc that sells for a little more than conventional DVD to be more attractive than two or three different formats. If they are already licensing content to SD DVD's, the might be equally inclined to license content for a hybrid, SD/HD disc and phase out SD-only DVD's altogether...

The studios aren't manufacturing the discs, they're just licensing content, so there is no reason for them to be wedded to one particular format other than contractually and they won't hesitate to bust the contract if they think they can make more money.

**PFC5** · 05-22-2006, 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobY

The studios aren't manufacturing the discs, they're just licensing content, so there is no reason for them to be wedded to one particular format other than contractually and they won't hesitate to bust the contract if they think they can make more money.

I don't think the studios are licensing the content to disc makers, but rather they are contracting for the disc makers to make the discs for them. The studios pay the disc mfg to make them at a quoted price then the studios get them back to market & distribute.

I could be wrong but it doesn't make sense for the studios to sell use of content to someone else. If someone KNOWS for sure what the process for these discs are please chime in.

winpitt · 05-22-2006, 01:37 PM

You got that right. HD TV market penetration into US households is only supposed to hit 50% in 2010. That is a LONG way off. So, there are already significant barriers to adoption in order to get sufficient scale for prices to drop. And don't forget, at least 5-10% of those existing HD sets are older 4x3 projectors or small panels, not really capable of doing justice to the new "formats". IF there had been a single real standard rather than these two, I think we'd see far more rapid adoption. However, since there isn't it's at least possible that neither of the two contendors will be able to not get knocked out by something that comes along in the meantime. That means that it's very possible that consumers will just thumb their collective noses at both.

Quote:

Originally Posted by borromini

But that's just my point...HD-DVD gaining significant studio support will not occur this year because there won't be any significant volume of sales for 12 to 18 months. This is for the simple reason that unlike the move from VHS to DVD where all you needed was a TV, this market's growth relies on the critical mass adoption of HDTVs. An event that will happen, but not within the next year. It's at that point in which the studios begin to then make meaningful assessments on which format to fully support based on consumer's preference. If Blu-Ray had still not been released by that point, then the scenario you described as a possibility may in fact happen.

BobY · 05-22-2006, 11:51 PM

What I meant was, the studios are not actually manufacturing the discs--they haven't invested in the production equipment for a specific format and can change their orders to another format at their discretion. If studios that are exclusively supporting BD become convinced that they will be missing an opportunity to make money now and in the future by not supporting HD DVD, they will start supporting HD DVD (probably even Sony's studios). Aside from the greed factor, public companies have shareholders and Boards of Directors to worry about.

Keep in mind that it doesn't matter whether *we* don't believe that both formats, or even either format, will be successful with the average consumer. Toshiba and the HD DVD consortium believe they will succeed and are committing huge resources to the effort and Sony and the BDA believe they will succeed and are committing huge resources to the effort.

I don't think either group expects that the products are going to be successful with the average consumer for quite some time. By maintaining compatibility with conventional DVD and driving the price down, they can speed the transition, even if consumers largely haven't switched to HD displays. It's not going to take much to drive the cost of manufacturing HD DVD discs down since the same production equipment can also produce conventional DVD.

The issue right now is there is a format war that will slow everybody down. Think about the joke of the two guys trying to outrun a hungry lion--Toshiba doesn't need to be successful with the average consumer at this point, all they need to do is outrun Blu-Ray, then they will have the time and resources to make HD DVD successful. If enough studios were to throw support behind HD DVD in the near term, that would likely end any hope for Blu-Ray as a consumer video format--HD DVD would have first to market, lowest price and compelling content.

If there are three or four companies selling all the HD DVD players they are making by the time the first Blu-Ray player hits the market, you can bet the studios are going to be running their spreadsheets at some closed-door meetings.

SLedford · 05-23-2006, 07:45 AM

BobY said (in part):
If studios that are exclusively supporting BD become convinced that they will be missing an opportunity to make money now and in the future by not supporting HD DVD, they will start supporting HD DVD (probably even Sony's studios).

While we are still early in the game (war), with one side not even out of the gate, the numbers so far are not impressive. The studios are really not missing much of anything by not being in the HD/BD-DVD mix.

A bigger concern for me is that the studios will become convinced that this is strictly a niche market or a good idea introduced several years too early and react accordingly. I want some form of high def DVD to survive this, and I am not sure that is going to happen.

But it is early in the war. If I were able to pull strings and make things happen, here is what I would do:

TOSHIBA - Tighten my financial belt and cut the cost of players to $199 for a highly advertised sale period. Introduce all new movies in a dual format (HD-DVD on 1 side, SD-DVD on the other) at the same cost as the regular DVD. In short, I would try to sink BD-DVD before they had a chance to get started.

SONY - Same strategy. Introduce a solid $199 BD-DVD player and stress that most of the studios are supporting BD-DVD. Also would make sure that a flood of BD-DVDs hit the stores the same day as the players. Sony is actully in a better position to do this than Toshiba, since they own studios that would benefit from movie sales for years to come.

WHAT WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN - Sony will introduce its players at the currently listed $1 - $2k prices. By the end of the year both formats combined will have around 300,000 players sold (excluding the PS) out of an estimated 100 million households. By the end of 2007 both formats will be up to a combined 1 million players sold and both Toshiba and Sony will be under pressure from stockolders to stop the bleeding by terminating this segment of the business. The studios will re-focus on DVDs after coming to the conclusion that both HD/BD-DVD is financially not worth the effort.

winpitt · 05-23-2006, 09:00 AM

I've gotta say, I feel exactly the same way. I know there are a lot of HD-DVD/BD proponents out there who are yelling "blasphemy!" right now, but as much as I love HD I worry that neither of these will live long for the same reasons.

What I'm even more worried about is that while I thing R&D continues on yet other possible standards, if the big guns determine this to be a niche market, funding for yet a different completely replacement standard may never see the light of day.

Guys, Sony and Toshiba really screwed the pooch on this one. Maybe it will end up OK, but if so it'll be by accident and not by design.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SLedford

BobY said (in part):
While we are still early in the game (war), with one side not even out of the gate, the numbers so far are not impressive. The studios are really not missing much of anything by not being in the HD/BD-DVD mix.

A bigger concern for me is that the studios will become convinced that this is strictly a niche market or a good idea introduced several years too early and react accordingly. I want some form of high def DVD to survive this, and I am not sure that is going to happen.

WHAT WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN - Sony will introduce its players at the currently listed $1 - $2k prices. By the end of the year both formats combined will have around 300,000 players sold (excluding the PS) out of an estimated 100 million households. By the end of 2007 both formats will be up to a combined 1 million players sold and both Toshiba and Sony will be under pressure from stockolders to stop the bleeding by terminating this segment of the business. The studios will re-focus on DVDs after coming to the conclusion that both HD/BD-DVD is financially not worth the effort.

BobY · 05-23-2006, 11:55 AM

Sledford-

That's certainly a possible scenario and I agree your marketing strategy would be the most effective at capturing the market, but I don't think either company can take that big a financial hit, especially since it won't affect sales that much in the short term. Joe Consumer isn't interested at this point, even at a lower price, and the early adopters will pay the higher price.

Just to clarify, I didn't say the studios *would* be missing out, I said if Toshiba can *convince* the studios they would be missing a money-making opportunity now and in the future by not supporting HD DVD, they will start supporting HD DVD. I believe this is Toshiba's marketing strategy in order to get Blu-Ray out of the way before it gains a foothold. Then they can devleop the market for HD players unhindered (or at least until stockholders pull the plug--but this doesn't happen often with Japanese corporations who have a long history of losing money in the short term to dominate a market in the long term).

I agree that in *absolute* numbers, the HD DVD volume is not impressive but although every market may not be hot, Toshiba still appears to be selling all that they are shipping. Of course they are shipping small numbers (perhaps deliberately to create a "demand"). It will be interesting to see what effect the RCA player has on sales.

I wonder if paradoxically Blu-Ray may end up with a bigger market problem by having a lot more harware manufacturers slicing up a pretty small pie in the near term.

I wouldn't get too distraught about the future of HD discs at this point. The same arguments could be said about HDTV's as well. The market penetration seems way out of whack compared to the number of different companies and models in the marketplace and the disproportionate number of HD units at retail compared to the adoption rate. That still hasn't stopped anybody from pumping out product on a regular basis (including to consumers who have no HD source to view on their HDTV).

rudyusmc1980 · 05-23-2006, 12:10 PM

well, my suggestion to Toshiba would be to stop making/selling regular DVD and the possibly confusing upconverters. change all production to HD. Aren't they shooting themselves in the foot by offering an upconverter, a product obviously targeted at the HDDVDs target consumer? and the players are by all reports very good upconverters. Overlapping and competing products? what good does this do Toshiba in the war?

BobY · 05-23-2006, 12:25 PM

I agree it can confuse the consumer, but there is no comparison between true HD and upconverting 480i content. I doubt whether most consumers would detect the difference between a 480p DVD player and an upconverting DVD player in an A-B comparison.

Realistically, upconverting was added as a feature to try and generate market interest and perhaps raise the player ASP and margins for a brief period. When you consider that you need an HDTV to watch the upscaled output of an upconverting player and every HDTV already has the ability to upscale a 480i signal to HD, there really is not much point...

SLedford · 05-23-2006, 01:32 PM

BobY,
your comment about HD television being a comparable small market is a fair comparison, with a couple of differences. The US government is pushing digital (and HD television) by eliminating analog television after a cutoff date. This has probably helped push HD television further along than it would have without this "threat". The other difference is the huge picture improvement over regular analog television. I love the HD-DVD picture I see at BB, but my eyes don't see the same level of improvement from SD-DVD to HD-DVD that I see from analog television to HD television.

You are also correct in saying that it is too early to get distraught about high def DVD - it is to early to tell what will happen.

rudyusmc1980,
You are correct in pointing out that consumers get confused by up-converting DVD players. This is done (in my opinion) on purpose by the manufacturers. However, the DVD line is a primary source of income for the studios, who are not always the same people making the players. It would be a huge risk for them to eliminate these and "force" people to buy HD-DVDs instead. They just want to sell movies. What makes high def DVDs attractive is the possiblility of re-selling the same movies they sold as SD-DVD to new HD/BD-DVD owners.

Here is a thought;
the studios would kill both formats in a heartbeat right now if they thought consumers would only buy new movies in one of the high def formats (my plans, eventually) instead of replacing their existing SD-DVD movies. The only way studios gain is with movie replacement sales.

What happens if these replacement sales do not happen at the level anticipated by the studios?

05-21-2006, 06:52 PM	#19
borromini HT Frontiersman Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Northern California Posts: 9,825	Sure, that's a possibility. However, I think a more applicable wild-card would be if they aggressively drove down the cost of the HD-DVD players immediately so that folks who still just buy/rent regular DVDs can continue to do so but also invest in a player that has a future while they prepare to buy an HDTV down the road. The prices will eventually drop, but I'm referring to a crash down on prices now rather than following normal supply/demand cycles. __________________ "I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy"

05-21-2006, 06:59 PM	#20
PFC5 Super Moderator Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 28,390	BobY: That is the scenario I have been saying for months would clinch it for the format that did this, BUT it would require it to be sold for the same price as SD DVD or within $2-4.00 it at least. This SHOULD make the studios happy because then they would have the more secure format they want out there with the hacked format going away. It would be worth it for the studios to eat some profit margin just to make that happen I would think. AFAIK, The Toshiba HD-A1 has a MSRP of $499.00, not $599.00. Amazon has the MSRP price of $599.00 overinflated so it will look like it is on sale, or at a bargain discount. Here is a link to the MSRP on Toshiba's site: http://www.tacp.toshiba.com/dvd/product.asp?model=hd-a1 __________________ Denon AVR-887 Klipsch RP-5 Pwred Towers (mains) (525 watts peak each 12"Subs) All Klipsch RC-25(ctr),(2)SS1(surr),(2)SS1(rearSurr) Toshiba (2)HD-A20,PS3,BD35 For SACD/DVD-A Samsung HD-841 Panny 50pz80u plasma SETTINGS RCA HD50LPW162 50"DLP w/HD2+ SA 3250HD 47" LCD+Yamaha5790+HD-A1(bedroom) Harmony 680 + (2) 670s (amazing remote/support) Game room with Onkyo receiver & B&W Speakers The_Cable_Game Take the high ground and be happier

05-23-2006, 07:45 AM	#25
SLedford HD Fan Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Little Rock, Arkansas Posts: 1,023	High def DVD not off to a good start BobY said (in part): If studios that are exclusively supporting BD become convinced that they will be missing an opportunity to make money now and in the future by not supporting HD DVD, they will start supporting HD DVD (probably even Sony's studios). While we are still early in the game (war), with one side not even out of the gate, the numbers so far are not impressive. The studios are really not missing much of anything by not being in the HD/BD-DVD mix. A bigger concern for me is that the studios will become convinced that this is strictly a niche market or a good idea introduced several years too early and react accordingly. I want some form of high def DVD to survive this, and I am not sure that is going to happen. But it is early in the war. If I were able to pull strings and make things happen, here is what I would do: TOSHIBA - Tighten my financial belt and cut the cost of players to $199 for a highly advertised sale period. Introduce all new movies in a dual format (HD-DVD on 1 side, SD-DVD on the other) at the same cost as the regular DVD. In short, I would try to sink BD-DVD before they had a chance to get started. SONY - Same strategy. Introduce a solid $199 BD-DVD player and stress that most of the studios are supporting BD-DVD. Also would make sure that a flood of BD-DVDs hit the stores the same day as the players. Sony is actully in a better position to do this than Toshiba, since they own studios that would benefit from movie sales for years to come. WHAT WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN - Sony will introduce its players at the currently listed $1 - $2k prices. By the end of the year both formats combined will have around 300,000 players sold (excluding the PS) out of an estimated 100 million households. By the end of 2007 both formats will be up to a combined 1 million players sold and both Toshiba and Sony will be under pressure from stockolders to stop the bleeding by terminating this segment of the business. The studios will re-focus on DVDs after coming to the conclusion that both HD/BD-DVD is financially not worth the effort. __________________ Toshiba 57H83 television, Paradigm Monitor 5 front speakers, Paradigm CC370 center speaker, Paradigm Mini Monitor surround speakers, Sony subwoofer, Yamaha HRT-5590 receiver, Denon DVD-2800 II, Toshiba HD-DVD A2, Play Station 3 - 40 Gig, Comcast HD Cable

05-23-2006, 01:32 PM	#30
SLedford HD Fan Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Little Rock, Arkansas Posts: 1,023	Good points BobY, your comment about HD television being a comparable small market is a fair comparison, with a couple of differences. The US government is pushing digital (and HD television) by eliminating analog television after a cutoff date. This has probably helped push HD television further along than it would have without this "threat". The other difference is the huge picture improvement over regular analog television. I love the HD-DVD picture I see at BB, but my eyes don't see the same level of improvement from SD-DVD to HD-DVD that I see from analog television to HD television. You are also correct in saying that it is too early to get distraught about high def DVD - it is to early to tell what will happen. rudyusmc1980, You are correct in pointing out that consumers get confused by up-converting DVD players. This is done (in my opinion) on purpose by the manufacturers. However, the DVD line is a primary source of income for the studios, who are not always the same people making the players. It would be a huge risk for them to eliminate these and "force" people to buy HD-DVDs instead. They just want to sell movies. What makes high def DVDs attractive is the possiblility of re-selling the same movies they sold as SD-DVD to new HD/BD-DVD owners. Here is a thought; the studios would kill both formats in a heartbeat right now if they thought consumers would only buy new movies in one of the high def formats (my plans, eventually) instead of replacing their existing SD-DVD movies. The only way studios gain is with movie replacement sales. What happens if these replacement sales do not happen at the level anticipated by the studios? __________________ Toshiba 57H83 television, Paradigm Monitor 5 front speakers, Paradigm CC370 center speaker, Paradigm Mini Monitor surround speakers, Sony subwoofer, Yamaha HRT-5590 receiver, Denon DVD-2800 II, Toshiba HD-DVD A2, Play Station 3 - 40 Gig, Comcast HD Cable

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05-21-2006, 05:52 PM	#18
BobY What's all this, then?... Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 6,197	I wouldn't argue with you, but I think a wild card might be if they very quickly drive down the cost of double-sided hybrid discs, with the HD DVD version of a film on one side and the conventional DVD version on the other. They could then phase out conventional DVD production and suddenly everyone buying a disc is buying HD DVD whether they have HD or not. In this way, conventional DVD buyers would help pay for the transition to HD...

05-21-2006, 11:25 PM	#21
BobY What's all this, then?... Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 6,197	I don't know what I was thinking... I thought I'd seen the HD-A1 MSRP at $599 and an article saying the RCA would be $100 cheaper than the HD-A1, but that's not the case. Sorry. I agree driving down the price of the player to within range of conventional DVD players would do more for average consumer acceptance, however it's going to be a lot easier to drive down the price of the discs quickly. Remember I'm postulating the marketing strategy is to convince the studios to support HD DVD, not so much sell the consumers (at least at this point). The studios might find a single hybrid disc that sells for a little more than conventional DVD to be more attractive than two or three different formats. If they are already licensing content to SD DVD's, the might be equally inclined to license content for a hybrid, SD/HD disc and phase out SD-only DVD's altogether... The studios aren't manufacturing the discs, they're just licensing content, so there is no reason for them to be wedded to one particular format other than contractually and they won't hesitate to bust the contract if they think they can make more money.

05-22-2006, 11:51 PM	#24
BobY What's all this, then?... Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 6,197	What I meant was, the studios are not actually manufacturing the discs--they haven't invested in the production equipment for a specific format and can change their orders to another format at their discretion. If studios that are exclusively supporting BD become convinced that they will be missing an opportunity to make money now and in the future by not supporting HD DVD, they will start supporting HD DVD (probably even Sony's studios). Aside from the greed factor, public companies have shareholders and Boards of Directors to worry about. Keep in mind that it doesn't matter whether we don't believe that both formats, or even either format, will be successful with the average consumer. Toshiba and the HD DVD consortium believe they will succeed and are committing huge resources to the effort and Sony and the BDA believe they will succeed and are committing huge resources to the effort. I don't think either group expects that the products are going to be successful with the average consumer for quite some time. By maintaining compatibility with conventional DVD and driving the price down, they can speed the transition, even if consumers largely haven't switched to HD displays. It's not going to take much to drive the cost of manufacturing HD DVD discs down since the same production equipment can also produce conventional DVD. The issue right now is there is a format war that will slow everybody down. Think about the joke of the two guys trying to outrun a hungry lion--Toshiba doesn't need to be successful with the average consumer at this point, all they need to do is outrun Blu-Ray, then they will have the time and resources to make HD DVD successful. If enough studios were to throw support behind HD DVD in the near term, that would likely end any hope for Blu-Ray as a consumer video format--HD DVD would have first to market, lowest price and compelling content. If there are three or four companies selling all the HD DVD players they are making by the time the first Blu-Ray player hits the market, you can bet the studios are going to be running their spreadsheets at some closed-door meetings.

05-23-2006, 11:55 AM	#27
BobY What's all this, then?... Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 6,197	Sledford- That's certainly a possible scenario and I agree your marketing strategy would be the most effective at capturing the market, but I don't think either company can take that big a financial hit, especially since it won't affect sales that much in the short term. Joe Consumer isn't interested at this point, even at a lower price, and the early adopters will pay the higher price. Just to clarify, I didn't say the studios would be missing out, I said if Toshiba can convince the studios they would be missing a money-making opportunity now and in the future by not supporting HD DVD, they will start supporting HD DVD. I believe this is Toshiba's marketing strategy in order to get Blu-Ray out of the way before it gains a foothold. Then they can devleop the market for HD players unhindered (or at least until stockholders pull the plug--but this doesn't happen often with Japanese corporations who have a long history of losing money in the short term to dominate a market in the long term). I agree that in absolute numbers, the HD DVD volume is not impressive but although every market may not be hot, Toshiba still appears to be selling all that they are shipping. Of course they are shipping small numbers (perhaps deliberately to create a "demand"). It will be interesting to see what effect the RCA player has on sales. I wonder if paradoxically Blu-Ray may end up with a bigger market problem by having a lot more harware manufacturers slicing up a pretty small pie in the near term. I wouldn't get too distraught about the future of HD discs at this point. The same arguments could be said about HDTV's as well. The market penetration seems way out of whack compared to the number of different companies and models in the marketplace and the disproportionate number of HD units at retail compared to the adoption rate. That still hasn't stopped anybody from pumping out product on a regular basis (including to consumers who have no HD source to view on their HDTV).

05-23-2006, 12:10 PM	#28
rudyusmc1980 High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: McAllen, TX Posts: 709	well, my suggestion to Toshiba would be to stop making/selling regular DVD and the possibly confusing upconverters. change all production to HD. Aren't they shooting themselves in the foot by offering an upconverter, a product obviously targeted at the HDDVDs target consumer? and the players are by all reports very good upconverters. Overlapping and competing products? what good does this do Toshiba in the war?

05-23-2006, 12:25 PM	#29
BobY What's all this, then?... Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 6,197	I agree it can confuse the consumer, but there is no comparison between true HD and upconverting 480i content. I doubt whether most consumers would detect the difference between a 480p DVD player and an upconverting DVD player in an A-B comparison. Realistically, upconverting was added as a feature to try and generate market interest and perhaps raise the player ASP and margins for a brief period. When you consider that you need an HDTV to watch the upscaled output of an upconverting player and every HDTV already has the ability to upscale a 480i signal to HD, there really is not much point...