DEG Q1 2012 Report

Lee Stewart · 04-29-2012, 02:32 PM

Quote:

The Digital Entertainment Group reports that subscription streaming rose an estimated 545.5% in the first quarter of 2012, while rentals at brick-and-mortar stores fell a devastating 39.4%.

Home video chiefs at the Hollywood studios finally have something to smile about.

For the first time in years, consumer spending on home entertainment actually rose in the first quarter of 2012, rising 2.5% to $4.45 billion largely due to the strength of streaming, according to numbers compiled by DEG: The Digital Entertainment Group.

The real good news for the studios, however, is that packaged media sales remained steady in the first quarter of 2012, with disc sales down less than 1% from the first quarter of 2011 – a sharp contrast to previous years, when first-quarter sales typically edged down in the double digits.

According to DEG, consumers spent $2.06 billion on Blu-ray Discs and DVDs in the first three months of 2012, down just slightly from the estimated $2.07 they spent in the comparable period last year. Continued declines in DVD purchases were offset by a 23% rise in Blu-ray Disc sales, the DEG says.

Add in electronic sellthrough, which posted a 17% gain in the first quarter, and total consumer spending on home entertainment purchases rose 0.5% to $2.22 billion.

More good news for the studios: disc sales of theatrical movies rose 2% in the quarter, sales of catalog titles on Blu-ray Disc were up 27%, and TV on Blu-ray sales soared 54%. More than 40.8 million U.S. homes now have at least one device capable of playing Blu-ray Discs.

The disc rental business didn’t fare as well. Rentals at brick-and-mortar stores fell 39.4% to $305 million, while subscription disc rental – mostly Netflix – was down an estimated 48% to $348 million, DEG claims. Kiosk rental – mostly Redbox – rose an estimated 30.1% to $523 million.

Subscription streaming, however, rose an estimated 545.5% to $548.6 million, largely due to Netflix’s successful conversion of disc renters to streamers. Video-on-demand posted a smaller gain of 6.8%, rising to $505.3 million.

Total rental spending – consisting of disc rentals as well as VOD and streaming – rose 4.4% to $2.23 billion from $2.13 billion in the first quarter of 2011.

UltraViolet, the studio-backed, cloud-based “digital locker” service, service grew to 2 million accounts in the quarter, DEG reported.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/new...-redbox-317877
.

HD Goofnut · 04-29-2012, 02:39 PM

I'm sure Netflix is going to continue to shun disc based subscriptions. There are idiots to continue to do so.

1stSilverado · 04-29-2012, 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HD Goofnut

I'm sure Netflix is going to continue to shun disc based subscriptions. There are idiots to continue to do so.

Although it seems that a natural progression from Netflix to Redbox is occurring despite any actions from Netflix, positive or negative.
It might be out of Netflixs' hands

Lee Stewart · 04-29-2012, 03:09 PM

Quote:

More than 40.8 million U.S. homes now have at least one device capable of playing Blu-ray Discs.

According to the DEG EOY 2011 report; " BD PBDs in nearly 40 million homes"

EOY 2010 report - BD PBD penetration = "27.5 million homes"

Q1 2011 report - BD PBD penetration = "nearly 30 million homes"

**bruceames** · 04-29-2012, 04:13 PM

DEG and HMM had almost the same OD sell through numbers. Very close!

Kosty · 04-29-2012, 04:31 PM

Quote:

Consumer Spending on Home Entertainment Rising for the First Time in Years

Wow. Nice gains in every category we talk about.

Blu-ray up +23%

Catalog titles on Blu-ray Disc were up up +27%

TV on Blu-ray sales soared up +54%

Theatrical movies on DVD+BD up +2%

OD only down -1%

EST up +17%

Redbox up +30.1%

Netflix Subscription Streaming +545.5% (including conversion from DVD by mail)

Kosty · 04-29-2012, 04:32 PM

That's interesting details on those sub categories there for Blu-ray and DVD.

Blu-ray catalog sales and TV on Blu-ray did even better than Blu-ray as a whole.

Quote:

More good news for the studios: disc sales of theatrical movies rose 2% in the quarter, sales of catalog titles on Blu-ray Disc were up 27%, and TV on Blu-ray sales soared 54%.

More than 40.8 million U.S. homes now have at least one device capable of playing Blu-ray Discs.

PSound · 04-29-2012, 04:47 PM

It looks like the DEG decided to not alter 2011 numbers, which means OD rental is going to show a ton of decline this year:

Quote:

The disc rental business didn’t fare as well. Rentals at brick-and-mortar stores fell 39.4% to $305 million, while subscription disc rental – mostly Netflix – was down an estimated 48% to $348 million, DEG claims. Kiosk rental – mostly Redbox – rose an estimated 30.1% to $523 million.

PSound · 04-29-2012, 04:53 PM

Deadline Hollywood has also posted the numbers.

And they actually show responsible journalism by simply not pimping up what the DEG stated without at least acknowledging important data:

Quote:

The data out today from DEG: The Digital Entertainment Group may suggest that the period of steep declines in home video spending — largely driven by the collapse of the DVD market — is over. But it also may just reflect the fact that the quarter had more popular movies: Films available on home video in the quarter did 12.5% better at the box office than did comparable releases last year.

http://www.deadline.com/2012/04/cons...-in-q1-up-2-5/

Lee Stewart · 04-29-2012, 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PSound

Deadline Hollywood has also posted the numbers.

And they actually show responsible journalism by simply not pimping up what the DEG stated without at least acknowledging important data:

http://www.deadline.com/2012/04/cons...-in-q1-up-2-5/

Responsible journalism huh?

Quote:

Another winner: kiosk services led by Redbox. Their rocketed 30.1% to $523M

Actual Q1 Total Redbox Revenue

Quote:

Better same-kiosk sales, the addition of more kiosks, strong performance of new-release titles and consumer acceptance of a 20-cent price increase all were credited by Coinstar for the strong results by Redbox, which posted revenue of nearly $503 million.

BTW - that includes video game rentals ($25.15 million) which as you know are not part of DEG's HV reports.

So DEG offers up an over-inflated Redbox number and they too lap it up without doing just a little basic research. Took me less than 60 seconds to spot it and confirm the error.

PSound · 04-29-2012, 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

Responsible journalism huh?

Actual Q1 Total Redbox Revenue

BTW - that includes video game rentals which as you know are not part of DEG's HV reports.

So DEG offers up an over-inflated Redbox number and they too lap it up without doing just a little basic research. Took me less than 60 seconds to spot it and confirm the error.

The DEG should be counting kiosk revenue, including from other companies (including independents). Just like their B&M number includes revenue from independent rentailers.

PSound · 04-29-2012, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PSound

The DEG should be counting kiosk revenue, including from other companies (including independents). Just like their B&M number includes revenue from independent rentailers.

On that front, we can figure out Blockbuster-by-mail revenue.

The DEG reported $348 million for OD subscription revenue. Netflix reported $320 million.

As Blockbuster-by-mail is the only other game in town, that brings their revenue in at $28 million for the quarter.

Netflix reported average revenue for paying subs at $32.13 for the quarter. If Blockbuster had the same average revenue per subscriber, that would mean they have ~ 872,000 paying subs. That is down significantly for Blockbuster from when they were right around 3 million subs at the beginning of 2007.

**bruceames** · 04-29-2012, 07:19 PM

I updated the OD table with the reported DEG figures (some derived), just to show how close it was with HMM. I'll tweak the figures as necessary when they release the consumer spending chart.

Updated thru week ending 4/14/12
Table of Blu-ray sales (HMM and DEG)
numbers are in (revenue) millions.
Weekly figures are from HMM (Home Media Magazine

Code:

2012 HMM    2320.56    -3.3%    1773.69    -7.0%     546.87   10.7%    23.6%    2599.2  2878.6										
Week Date      OD     OD YoY      DVD    DVD YoY       BD    BD YoY  BD Share  TBO2012 TBO2011										

15  4/14     107.78   -42.5%      85.63   -37.4%      22.15  -56.2%    20.6%      51.3   314.8
14  4/7      201.90    13.9%     156.28    20.0%      45.62   -3.0%    22.6%     153.2   427.4

Q1 DEG      2060.00    -0.4%    1559.39    -6.1%     500.61   23.0%    24.3%
Q1 HMM      2010.88    -1.2%    1531.78    -6.6%     479.10   20.9%    23.8%    2394.7  2136.4

13  3/31     155.29   -19.9%     120.32   -17.4%      34.98  -27.6%    22.5%     168.6   319.2
12  3/24     148.56     8.5%     108.20    -2.8%      40.36   57.9%    27.2%     353.9   219.4
11  3/17     146.48     4.6%     112.13    -1.4%      34.34   30.2%    23.4%     276.1   154.2
10  3/10     165.27     9.5%     123.11     2.7%      42.16   35.7%    25.5%     216.0   177.1
9   3/3      150.39   -14.0%     115.29   -13.4%      35.10  -15.7%    23.3%      67.0   112.3
8   2/25     158.98    -2.2%     122.04    -7.3%      36.94   19.4%    23.2%     272.1   258.0
7   2/18     207.15    18.9%     160.38    10.4%      46.77   61.7%    22.6%      16.4    86.2
6   2/11     205.54    19.4%     151.09     3.1%      54.45  104.2%    26.5%     316.5   224.0
5   2/4      144.90    -8.6%     110.25   -16.0%      34.65   27.1%    23.9%     118.5    23.0
4   1/28     131.95   -13.6%      98.40   -20.2%      33.55   14.2%    25.4%     226.3   201.2
3   1/21     129.39    -2.4%     103.53    -4.9%      25.86    8.9%    20.0%     112.7    60.7
2   1/14     128.65    -5.1%     100.16    -7.7%      28.49    5.6%    22.1%     143.4   116.2
1   1/7      138.33    -8.0%     106.88   -11.6%      31.45    7.0%    22.7%     157.7   134.3

2011 DEG    8951.80   -13.2%    6851.80   -19.5%    2150.00   19.4%    24.0%    
2011 HMM    8604.20   -13.9%    6608.28   -20.3%    1995.92   17.7%    23.2%    9936.0 10820.9																			

Q4 DEG      3338.95   -11.0%    2464.81   -16.5%     924.14   15.5%    27.7%
Q4 HMM      3125.11   -12.4%    2280.75   -19.5%     844.36   15.1%    27.0%    3698.4  3932.2

52  12/31    174.13   -25.6%     130.29   -28.7%      43.84  -14.7%    25.2%      64.3    95.9
51  12/24    482.11   -13.1%     368.59   -16.9%     113.52    2.2%    23.5%     205.6   303.6
50  12/17    369.89   -23.4%     280.58   -26.8%      89.31  -10.1%    24.1%     360.7   635.3
49  12/10    322.48   -14.5%     243.85   -18.6%      78.63    1.5%    24.4%     624.8   535.6
48  12/3     229.49   -23.3%     173.97   -27.5%      55.52   -6.2%    24.2%     282.0   496.0
47  11/26    388.67   -12.4%     300.39   -16.5%      88.28    5.0%    22.7%     194.5   185.3
46  11/19    166.84   -14.3%     127.57   -18.0%      39.27    0.5%    23.5%      41.6   359.0
45  11/12    183.17     2.5%     128.95   -12.0%      54.22   68.3%    29.6%     422.9   251.3
44  11/5     167.53   -16.8%     117.59   -22.8%      49.94    2.0%    29.8%     335.6   414.9
43  10/29    147.15    11.2%      96.66   -11.3%      50.49  115.6%    33.6%     204.5   108.7
42  10/22    156.94     9.5%      95.94   -17.1%      61.00  120.8%    38.9%     370.0    56.0
41  10/15    152.92    -2.4%     106.50   -14.1%      46.42   42.2%    30.4%     343.3   233.0
40  10/8     183.79     9.3%     109.87    -9.4%      73.92   57.7%    40.2%     248.6   257.6

Q3 DEG      1742.79    -4.0%    1320.93   -14.7%     421.86   58.0%    24.2%
Q3 HMM      1667.09    -4.9%    1298.39   -13.9%     368.70   49.9%    22.1%    1806.3  1609.5										

39  10/1     152.58   -14.3%     109.97   -20.4%      42.61    7.1%    27.9%     352.1   382.7
38  9/24     153.60     5.0%     108.69   -12.5%      44.91  103.6%    29.2%     169.3   112.5
37  9/17     164.69    14.0%     107.37   -14.2%      57.32  197.2%    34.8%     190.8   165.2
36  9/10     128.84     0.0%     102.29   -10.5%      26.55   82.9%    20.6%     189.3    60.3
35  9/3      119.04    -9.5%     100.87   -13.7%      18.17   23.5%    15.3%      65.6    95.1
34  8/27     109.34   -13.1%      91.74   -16.6%      17.60   11.5%    16.1%      12.6    45.3
33  8/20     124.53    -4.4%     101.11   -12.8%      23.42   63.3%    18.8%     100.8    81.2
32  8/13     122.13    -1.8%      98.44    -9.5%      23.69   51.8%    19.4%     118.0   143.9
31  8/6      139.66     1.4%     111.78    -3.6%      27.88   27.9%    20.0%     189.8   133.5
30  7/30     108.78   -18.3%      89.06   -20.2%      19.72   -8.7%    18.1%      56.8   177.2
29  7/23     120.50    -1.9%      97.25    -9.4%      23.25   49.9%    19.3%      88.3    72.7
28  7/16     118.09    -4.8%      94.88   -13.5%      23.21   61.7%    19.7%     267.8    94.7
27  7/9      105.31   -16.7%      84.94   -22.7%      20.37   22.9%    19.3%       5.1    45.2										
		
Q2 DEG      1831      -15.0%    1434      -18.8%     397       9.4%    21.7%
Q2 HMM      1791.55   -12.2%    1402.94   -16.7%     388.61    9.1%    21.7%    2314.8  2422.0

26  7/2      127.11   -12.3%      96.32   -21.6%      30.79   39.4%    24.2%     102.3   181.4
25  6/25     123.25    -7.7%      98.18   -12.8%      25.07   20.1%    20.3%     205.4    85.8
24  6/18     149.89   -11.2%     114.68   -17.7%      35.21   19.5%    23.5%     208.2   142.8
23  6/11     130.81   -13.6%     103.23   -18.6%      27.58   12.3%    21.1%     305.0   152.6
22  6/4      118.16   -34.1%      96.17   -32.8%      21.99  -39.1%    18.6%      15.8   386.8
21  5/28     113.83   -16.6%      91.37   -22.9%      22.46   24.9%    19.7%     154.4    87.9
20  5/21     111.98   -15.2%      91.84   -18.9%      20.14    7.2%    18.0%      99.8   185.7
19  5/14     111.02   -23.6%      90.00   -26.8%      21.02   -6.2%    18.9%     155.6   113.6
18  5/7      122.05   -25.2%      99.74   -29.5%      22.31   -7.7%    18.3%     141.5   106.1
17  4/30     106.99   -40.6%      86.94   -39.6%      20.05  -44.5%    18.7%       0.0   120.5
16  4/23     217.30    -8.3%     171.47    -0.3%      45.83  -29.4%    21.1%     187.5   841.3
15  4/16     184.50    48.7%     134.40    24.8%      50.10  205.3%    27.2%     314.8     8.1
14  4/9      174.66    21.6%     128.60     5.9%      46.06  107.5%    26.5%     424.5     9.4
										
Q1 DEG      2068      -20.0%    1661      -25.0%     407      10.0%    19.7%		
Q1 HMM      2020.45   -23.2%    1626.20   -28.4%     394.25    9.4%    19.5%    2116.5  2857.2

13  4/2      192.11   -36.0%     144.16   -44.6%      47.95   20.1%    25.0%     300.9   461.1
12  3/26     135.54   -49.8%     110.21   -50.9%      25.33  -44.1%    18.7%     218.0   335.6
11  3/19     138.72   -46.5%     112.58   -49.6%      26.14  -27.1%    18.8%     154.2   534.3
10  3/12     146.96   -24.4%     116.11   -30.8%      30.85   16.5%    21.0%     177.0   247.2
9   3/5      174.59    -7.2%     132.93   -15.4%      41.66   34.1%    23.9%     112.3   258.8
8   2/26     160.96     4.5%     130.35    -2.5%      30.61   50.7%    19.0%     258.0    74.9
7   2/19     172.68    -8.1%     143.99   -12.7%      28.69   25.0%    16.6%      86.2    80.1
6   2/12     172.00   -19.4%     145.34   -23.1%      26.66    8.9%    15.5%     224.0   211.0
5   2/5      158.26   -16.7%     131.08   -20.8%      27.18   11.1%    17.2%      23.0   114.6
4   1/29     151.21   -14.6%     122.05   -20.9%      29.16   27.6%    19.3%     201.2   151.6
3   1/22     131.62   -16.3%     107.98   -21.0%      23.64   14.8%    18.0%      60.7    61.0
2   1/15     135.49   -17.3%     108.51   -23.9%      26.98   27.0%    19.9%     143.3   137.8
1   1/8      150.31   -14.1%     120.91   -19.5%      29.40   18.6%    19.6%     157.7   189.2

OD = optical disc (DVD + Blu-ray)
YoY = year over year percentage change
TBO = total box office
BD = Blu-ray

Kosty · 04-29-2012, 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PSound

Deadline Hollywood has also posted the numbers.

And they actually show responsible journalism by simply not pimping up what the DEG stated without at least acknowledging important data:

http://www.deadline.com/2012/04/cons...-in-q1-up-2-5/

We don't actually know what the DEG report said now do we yet?

Of course, the releases mattered.

Just like in 1Q 2011 when an even steeper decline in box office strength contributed to the steep decline in that period last year.

**bruceames** · 04-29-2012, 07:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PSound

It looks like the DEG decided to not alter 2011 numbers, which means OD rental is going to show a ton of decline this year:

And SVOD is going to show a ton of growth...at least in the first two quarters.

By the same token, OD rental decline will stabilize in the second half of the year, once the highly erroneous data split is past.

But in the meantime, it's sure gonna make for some comedic YoY figures.

04-29-2012, 02:39 PM	#2
HD Goofnut Official HDF BD Reviewer Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Mississippi, U.S.A. Your resident Dune, Star Wars, and war film expert Posts: 9,556	I'm sure Netflix is going to continue to shun disc based subscriptions. There are idiots to continue to do so. __________________ BenQ MP512ST, Panasonic TC-L55ET5 55" 360Hz LED/3D, Sharp LC-46SB57UN 46" 120 Hz LCD, Sanyo DP46848 46" 60Hz LCD, HP 21.5" 60Hz LCD Onkyo TX-NR709 7.1/Onkyo SKS-HT540 ASUS BD Drive, LG BH200, Sony Optiarc Blu-ray Burner, Sony BDP-590, Vizio VBR220 My Motion Picture Collection Latest BD Review: *Jack Reacher*

04-29-2012, 04:13 PM	#5
bruceames Super Moderator Join Date: May 2006 Location: Novato, CA Posts: 15,389	DEG and HMM had almost the same OD sell through numbers. Very close! __________________ RIP Kosty. Just say NO to "always on" camera mounted on devices in your living room.