DEG Q1 2012 Report

mikemorel · 04-30-2012, 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kosty

I think the Centris data is just a lower estimate than the DEG data or the CEA survey data and its just coincidental that the numbers are that close.

The Centris data is not "close" to CEA. They are EXACTLY THE SAME - 26%. And they came out within days of each other, which leads one to believe in the highly likely probability that CEA simply referenced the Centris data in it's own report.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kosty

40.8 million / 115 million US households = 35.47% Blu-ray playback capable households (Blu-ray players, Htib and PS3) according to the DEG (EOY 1Q 2012)

vs

26% Blu-ray player household penetration according to the CEA (January 2012 Survey)

I see the Centris data as a low outlier that's estimating the same thing as the DEG data but is just a lower estimate.

DEG's 2010 Q3 report shows 21.1 million blu-ray players sold AND 21.1 million blu-ray households IN THE SAME REPORT.

Quote:

This brings the total installed base of Blu-ray Disc playback devices in the U.S. to 21.1 million units.

Quote:

Household penetration of Blu-ray Disc compatible devices, including set-top players and PlayStation 3 consoles, has now reached 21.1 million U.S. homes.

http://degonline.org/pressreleases/2...USf_Q32010.pdf

**bruceames** · 04-30-2012, 05:06 PM

I guess the spending chart hasn't been released yet, but here's what I have for the quarter:

OD sell-through $2,060 million--> -0.4% YoY ($1,559 DVD + $501 BD)

OD rental: $1,176 million--> -25.38% YoY ($305 B&M + $348 mail + $523 kiosk)

Digital: $1,214 million --> +73.7% YoY ($165 EST + $501 VOD + $548 SVOD)

**bruceames** · 04-30-2012, 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PSound

So the Q1 numbers are in.

We already knew about OD sales - relatively flat (slightly down) based on unusually strong DVD performance in Q1. Strong box office strength playing a role in that figure.

OD Rental is down by quite a bit just looking at B&M and kiosks, and down a massive amount wen factoring in disc by mail.

We already know that OD rental will continue to take a beating, at least for the next two quarters due to the reporting anomalies by the DEG last year.

The big question is whether DVD can continue to save ODs sell-through hide in Q2.

Blu-ray is showing the same declining revenue growth when factoring in box office, so it is not going to do it. We have already seen how low its floor can go without box office strength, and I expect that we will see multiple weeks with lower revenue before Q4.

If DVDs negative growth goes back at all to what is was doing last year, OD sell through is going to have a nasty quarter, couple with what we already know will be continued poor performing quarters for OD rental.

It looks like OD sell-through is getting a novel boost from OD rental, from rentailers buying from retail and perhaps also from the decline in OD rental itself.

I don't think this boost will be sustainable though, but who knows it may last for most of the year. But it's DVD that is benefiting from it.

**bruceames** · 04-30-2012, 05:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikemorel

The Centris data is not "close" to CEA. They are EXACTLY THE SAME - 26%. And they came out within days of each other, which leads one to believe in the highly likely probability that CEA simply referenced the Centris data in it's own report.

DEG's 2010 Q3 report shows 21.1 million blu-ray players sold AND 21.1 million blu-ray households IN THE SAME REPORT.

http://degonline.org/pressreleases/2...USf_Q32010.pdf

Wow, nice finds Mike.

I'm glad somebody knows how to get to the bottom of these "mysteries".

PSound · 04-30-2012, 05:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bruceames

Wow, nice finds Mike.

I'm glad somebody knows how to get to the bottom of these "mysteries".

It certainly is a mystery why anyone would try and muddle known info.

PSound · 04-30-2012, 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bruceames

I guess the spending chart hasn't been released yet, but here's what I have for the quarter:

OD sell-through $2,060 million--> -0.4% YoY ($1,559 DVD + $501 BD)

OD rental: $1,176 million--> -25.38% YoY ($305 B&M + $348 mail + $523 kiosk)

Digital: $1,214 million --> +73.7% YoY ($165 EST + $501 VOD + $548 SVOD)

Thanks Bruce.

Interesting to see it broken out like that. It looks like when you add in rental, OD is still bleeding out quite a bit of revenue.

OD is going to need DVD sell through to maintain its shift if it wants to avoid a potentially large negative quarter in Q2.

**bruceames** · 04-30-2012, 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PSound

Thanks Bruce.

Interesting to see it broken out like that. It looks like when you add in rental, OD is still bleeding out quite a bit of revenue.

OD is going to need DVD sell through to maintain its shift if it wants to avoid a potentially large negative quarter in Q2.

Interestingly enough, when you consider OD sell-through + rental as a whole, it was actually down more in Q1 this year (-11.2%), than it was last year (-10.9%). So the rapid OD decline is certainly not taking a break this year.

PSound · 04-30-2012, 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bruceames

Interestingly enough, when you consider OD sell-through + rental as a whole, it was actually down more in Q1 this year (-11.2%), than it was last year (-10.9%). So the rapid OD decline is certainly not taking a break this year.

And I am not confident that DVD will be able to continue to save OD sell through as it did in Q1.

Kosty · 04-30-2012, 09:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikemorel

The Centris data is not "close" to CEA. They are EXACTLY THE SAME - 26%. And they came out within days of each other, which leads one to believe in the highly likely probability that CEA simply referenced the Centris data in it's own report.

Your conspiracy theory tin foil hat has betrayed you.

To assert that the CEA study that they have been doing with the same methodology for the last 15 years just used the data from the Centris report is nuts.

http://www.ce.org/News/News-Releases...E-Purchas.aspx

Quote:

The 14th Annual Household CE Ownership and Market Potential Study (April 2012) was conducted between January 26-30, 2012. It was designed and formulated by CEA Market Research, the most comprehensive source of sales data, forecasts, consumer research and historical trends for the consumer electronics industry. Please cite any information to the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA)®. The complete study is available free to CEA member companies at members.CE.org. Non-members may purchase the study for $1,200 at the CEA Store.

About CEA
The Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) is the preeminent trade association promoting growth in the $195 billion U.S. consumer electronics industry. More than 2,000 companies enjoy the benefits of CEA membership, including legislative advocacy, market research, technical training and education, industry promotion, standards development and the fostering of business and strategic relationships. CEA also owns and produces the International CES – The Global Stage for Innovation. All profits from CES are reinvested into CEA’s industry services. Find CEA online at www.CE.org, www.DeclareInnovation.com and through social media:

About CEA Market Research
Informed Decisions Start with CEA Market Research. CEA is the authoritative source for consumer technology market research. CEA's industry knowledge is relied upon by the technology community, financial markets, the media and economists. Our intelligence is comprehensive. Spans all sectors. It's insightful with more than 75 years of research history. We are timely and have more than 25 unique research studies per year, 5-year Industry Forecasts conducted twice a year, industry sales reports on a regular basis ranging from weekly to monthly and quarterly, and often monthly, economic webinars.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikemorel

DEG's 2010 Q3 report shows 21.1 million blu-ray players sold AND 21.1 million blu-ray households IN THE SAME REPORT.

Quote:

This brings the total installed base of Blu-ray Disc playback devices in the U.S. to 21.1 million units.
Quote:

Quote:

Household penetration of Blu-ray Disc compatible devices, including set-top players and PlayStation 3 consoles, has now reached 21.1 million U.S. homes.

http://degonline.org/pressreleases/2...USf_Q32010.pdf

I agree that 2010 wording is confusing but I'm not sure you can equate "sold" with "installed base". They do not mean the same thing. In this case they may that they are using "installed base" as a synonym for households that have the devices. Or the number of households that equate to the household penetration number and in both cases they are using PS3 and Blu-ray players. Its certainly not clear that they are using total units sold of both devices as you are assuming.

Kosty · 04-30-2012, 09:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bruceames

Wow, nice finds Mike.

I'm glad somebody knows how to get to the bottom of these "mysteries".

The report does not say total units "sold" It says "installed base" in the quote he is providing. He's making the assumption they are the same which is probably not the case.

You are also agreeing with a premise that in the same post is alleging that the CEA just took the same figures from an April 2012 Internet based report from Centris and substituted it for their own data collected in a survey conducted in January 26-30, 2012. A survey that they have been conducting and publishing for 14 years well before Blu-ray was developed and fielded. That's an concept that is more willing to believe that because the round numbers are similar , the CEA must have cheated on the data to make Blu-ray look good, instead to it being a coincidence. I mean really.

Kosty · 04-30-2012, 09:26 PM

Quote:

First Quarter Blu-ray Sales Up 23%, $101m reaches $541m

Posted April 30, 2012 06:35 PM by Nayan Ashra

According to the DEG Blu-ray sales reached $541m for the first quarter in the USA rising 23%, or $101m. Blu-ray standalone player sales were 2.4m for the quarter with the installed base now reaching just under 41m.

Total home video spending was up year on year for the first time in two years by 2.5% to reach $4.45bn. Much of this rise was down to the impressive 74% rise in digital streaming and sales, while the upturn in Blu-ray sales was wiped out by the DVD losses, meaning physical sales were flat year on year for the quarter.

Blu-ray now accounts for over a quarter of all physical discs revenue, though given that BDs have a higher average selling price than DVDs it is unlikely that DVD maintained the same market share for unit sales.

Rental markets saw a rebound thanks to Redbox whose revenue rose 30% year on year. Other rental was down but the strong rise at Redbox ensured that the market grew.

http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=8628

Kosty · 04-30-2012, 09:36 PM

Quote:

US home video sales jump 2.5 percent in Q1 2012, Blu-ray and streaming services gain traction

By Chris Welch on April 30, 2012 07:32 pm

US consumers spent $4.45 billion on home video entertainment in the first quarter of 2012, according to figures just released by Digital Entertainment Group. That's an upswing of 2.5 percent over the same period last year, with digital streaming services and Blu-ray coming away as the big winners this quarter.

Purchases of the high-definition optical media jumped 23 percent to $541 million in Q1, and Blu-ray continued to enter new homes with 2.4 million players sold. That's some healthy growth to be sure, but BD remains a long way from toppling DVD as America's physical format of choice: the latter managed to take in $1.51 billion even after a seven-percent dip in sales.

The numbers aren't quite so kind to the rental market, unfortunately: physical media rentals plummeted by 25 percent to $1.18 billion during the quarter. That shouldn't come as much of a shock when you factor in Blockbuster's continuing woes and the migration of Netflix subscribers to digital streaming.

Streaming services are clearly on an upward trend, with digital downloads and video-on-demand content seeing a 74 percent rise in sales and totaling $1.22 billion — though how DEG reaches this figure isn't clear.

Still, it's not all doom and gloom in rental land, as Redbox brought in $523 million, which represents growth of 30 percent compared to 2011 and accounts for nearly half of the entire segment. It would seem those studio-imposed delays haven't had poised much of a financial burden after all.

http://www.theverge.com/2012/4/30/29...crease-q1-2012

Malanthius · 05-01-2012, 09:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kosty

http://www.theverge.com/2012/4/30/29...crease-q1-2012

Quote:

That's some healthy growth to be sure, but BD remains a long way from toppling DVD as America's physical format of choice

Funny. Another reference to Bluray vs DVD. You can deny it all you want man. But that was the intent of your charts. And still is. DVD is the benchmark to beat. If that happens or gets close the studios will have a success with HDM. If not? Eh! Not so much.

Kosty · 05-01-2012, 10:33 PM

http://www.degonline.org/pressreleas...12_4.29.12.pdf

http://www.degonline.org/pressreleas...29%2012%20.pdf

Quote:

April 29, 2012

Attached is the DEG’s First Quarter 2012 Home Entertainment Report compiled by DEG members, tracking sources and retail input.

First Quarter Home Entertainment Spending Edges Up

Sales of Blu-ray Disc Soar 23 Percent

Digital Distribution Continues Steady Growth

The first quarter of 2012 saw the continued stabilization of the industry underscored by promising gains in Blu-ray Disc, with steady increases in electronic sell-through (EST) and video-on-demand (VOD) spending, and modest growth in sell-through.

Overall consumer spending was up 2.5 percent compared to the first quarter last year, driven by a healthy consumer appetite for Blu-ray. Blu-ray Disc saw continued double digit growth (up 23 percent) in sales over first quarter 2011. Indeed, Blu-ray Disc now accounts for one out of four of all of the physical sell-through dollars spent by consumers compared to less than 15 percent two years ago. The progress in Blu-ray Disc sales is even more significant when viewed as growth off an ever-increasing base.
.
Highlights for the first quarter include:

 Blu-ray Disc and EST continued their steady gains with consumer spending on Blu-ray jumping 23 percent and EST up 17 percent compared to the same period last year.

 Physical sell-through of theatrical product was up two percent for the quarter, while catalog sales on Blu-ray Disc were up 27 percent, and TV on Blu-ray sales were up 54 percent, underscoring that Blu-ray Disc is the standard for quality home entertainment.

 With most major studios backing UltraViolet, and with the support of major retailers, consumers have embraced UltraViolet’s flexibility and value of ownership by opening nearly two million UltraViolet accounts to access and enjoy their movies and TV shows in the cloud.

 The number of Blu-ray homes continues to climb, with 2.4 million players sold in the first quarter (including BD set-tops, PS3s and HTiBs). Total household penetration of all Blu-ray compatible devices now stands at more than 40.8 million U.S. homes.

 Further, 6.5 million HDTVs were sold to U.S. consumers in the first quarter 2012. HDTV penetration to date is now at more than 77.6 million U.S. households.

Malanthius · 05-02-2012, 08:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kosty

The report does not say total units "sold" It says "installed base" in the quote he is providing. He's making the assumption they are the same which is probably not the case.

You are also agreeing with a premise that in the same post is alleging that the CEA just took the same figures from an April 2012 Internet based report from Centris and substituted it for their own data collected in a survey conducted in January 26-30, 2012. A survey that they have been conducting and publishing for 14 years well before Blu-ray was developed and fielded. That's an concept that is more willing to believe that because the round numbers are similar , the CEA must have cheated on the data to make Blu-ray look good, instead to it being a coincidence. I mean really.

Exactly how do you get an installed base without selling units? Or are you trying too hard to discredit Mike here?

04-30-2012, 05:06 PM	#47
bruceames Super Moderator Join Date: May 2006 Location: Novato, CA Posts: 15,387	I guess the spending chart hasn't been released yet, but here's what I have for the quarter: OD sell-through $2,060 million--> -0.4% YoY ($1,559 DVD + $501 BD) OD rental: $1,176 million--> -25.38% YoY ($305 B&M + $348 mail + $523 kiosk) Digital: $1,214 million --> +73.7% YoY ($165 EST + $501 VOD + $548 SVOD) __________________ RIP Kosty.