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The Story of 2012 - DVD Sell Through Revenue

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Old 04-07-2012, 10:05 PM   #31
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You have to look at YoY % growth IN LIGHT of BO strength.
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One would think so. It's not the only indicator, but in Blu-ray's case, since the top 20 is such a large portion of their sales, it is by far the biggest indicator.
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Of course you do , but you are going on and on as if its some sort of linear or one to one relationship and you are ignoring considerations of genre and how the box office gain in TBO is accumulated. TBO is a gross factor that gives rough impact with lots of variations in its composition. All other things equal more TBO is always favorable but how that TBO is distributed and what titles make it up are significant variables that you just cannot ignore.


In this case, 3/4 of that box office gain is concentrated in a single tent pole title in this quarter and that title has a genre and consumer demographics that are more favorable to DVD and its in a lagging genre and less favorable to DVD than many other typical tent pole titles.

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In the past it has been known to show very strong improvement under strong YoY box office. This year so far has been an exception. I don't recall any quarter ever where Blu-ray was up less than 50% under positive (greater than zero) BO YoY conditions
In the past that TBO increase also included a lot more Blu-ray friendly tent pole titles. You can hardly call the most prominent release in this 1Q 2012 period a Blu-ray friendly genre. Most other times the TBO has been better was in the higher volume 4Q periods where a single title was not the dominant factor.
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Old 04-07-2012, 10:07 PM   #32
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Q: What happened in week 6 of this quarter when the OD YoY metric skyrocketed upwards and has stayed there ever since?

A: Twilight Saga Breaking Dawn Part 1 was released on midnight Friday February 11, 2012. Its long term affect on the YoY metric is obvious.

The weeks of Twilight were two of the three weeks that DVD was actually up this 1Q 2011 period and its first week DVD was up a whopping +10.4% YoY. That has a huge impact on the DVD YoY cumulative statistics. Blu-ray was way up as well but its the higher volume change in DVD from that one title that really affected the OD statistics.
Twilight has helped Blu-ray's YoY metric more than it did DVD. I have shown this numerically on more than one occasion.
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Old 04-07-2012, 10:11 PM   #33
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Of course you do , but you are going on and on as if its some sort of linear or one to one relationship and you are ignoring considerations of genre and how the box office gain in TBO is accumulated.

In this case, 3/4 of that box office gain is concentrated in a single tent pole title in this quarter and that title has a genre and consumer demographics that are more favorable to DVD and its in a lagging genre and less favorable to DVD than many other typical tent pole titles.
If you want to bring genre into the discussion, you should show a list of this year's titles and last, together with the corresponding box office and genre, and present it in a way that clearly shows that last year was more favorable to Blu-ray. Otherwise you're just speculating.

I have already shown that Twilight has helped Blu-ray more than it did DVD, so taking that out won't help improve Blu-ray's release portfolio at all.
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Old 04-07-2012, 10:14 PM   #34
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Twilight has helped Blu-ray's YoY metric more than it did DVD. I have shown this numerically on more than one occasion.
Yet you keep saying you don't get it or understand why DVD has gained more in this quarter than Blu-ray with the same TBO gain. You seem to want to ignore the obvious variable that was changed.
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Old 04-07-2012, 10:19 PM   #35
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Last years negative growth in the YoY 1Q 2011 period was largely a result of a Twilight Saga release in the preceding year 1Q 2010 period as well.

Funny how some seemed to want to discount that effect of the strength of releases last year .

You are also mixing up the end of 2011 year 20% growth rate with the 8% week 12 1Q 2011 point we are at now or the 9.5% EO1Q 2011 growth rate after week 13. The appropriate comparison there would be apples to apples 1Q to 1Q not 1Q 2012 to EOY 2011.
Funny, I thought it was due to box office being down 26%. Oh wait, Twilight 2010 was a part of that.

It's rather silly to fling Twilight about in every post and present it as though it alone were responsible for every bad number that happened to Blu-ray. Twilight is a part of the box office statistic. It is being accounted for. There is no reason to accentuate its importance unless you believe it had a greater box office to home video conversion ratio than the norm. Do you think it did? Avatar certainly did not, yet you have mentioned Avatar hundreds of times as the reason why Blu-ray did poorly in Q2 last year. Again, it was accounted for in the box office statistics. Box office was down only 4.4% in that quarter. I know that and have accounted for it.

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Old 04-07-2012, 10:35 PM   #36
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Avatar was in the 2Q comparisons and we are not there yet.

The Twilight Saga movies in the past three years are unusual events as was Avatar. They were unusual most significantly as they have been every other year in the 1Q periods and they are exceptionally high volume tent pole releases that are dominant in the 1Q quarters that they have been released. Usually you do not get quite a strong spike in the 1Q as that series has accomplished.

Because the remaining releases in the 1Q are nowhere as dominant the Twilight Saga 1Q releases affect the 1Q YoY comparisons more.

Out of all this the real question remains is why the 1Q 2012 release of this latest Twilight Saga movie had just a little change from the previous December 4Q 2011 Twight Saga : Eclipse? Some of that is undoubtedly the holiday seasonality of a Dec 4, 2010 release vs a Feb 11 2012 non holiday release.

But the real question here is why did the last Twilight Saga release not gain more in Blu-ray unit marketshare than it did since almost every other genre and apples to apples title has increased far more in Blu-ray marketshare from one year to the next.

Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 hardly gained any Blu-ray marketshare than Twilight Saga: Eclipse did despite Blu-ray having gains everywhere else in marketshare. I've still seen no solid reasons why that was the case besides the holiday seasonality factor.
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Old 04-07-2012, 10:44 PM   #37
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Funny, I thought it was due to box office being down 26%. Oh wait, Twilight 2010 was a part of that.

It's rather silly to fling Twilight about in every post and present it as though it alone were responsible for every bad number that happened to Blu-ray. Twilight is a part of the box office statistic. It is being accounted for. There is no reason to accentuate its importance unless you believe it had a greater box office to home video conversion ratio than the norm. Do you think it did? Avatar certainly did not, yet you have mentioned Avatar hundreds of times as the reason why Blu-ray did poorly in Q2 last year. Again, it was accounted for in the box office statistics. Box office was down only 4.4% in that quarter. I know that and have accounted for it.
You are the one that seems to be somewhat mystified to why DVD is doing better in your eyes than Blu-ray and yet you want to ignore the most obvious variable of a Twilight Saga being in 1Q 2012 and not in 1Q 2011. That's the most dominant title in the quarter and it clearly helped DVD more than most of the other releases in the quarter. Its most of the TBO gain and is directly responsible for DVDs gains or less attrition in the quarter. The only question is with the same title and TBO gain why Blu-ray did not gain as much relatively speaking in the entire quarter.

I do not think a current 28% YoY or a peak of 33% YoY rate for Blu-ray in the 1Q 2012 is a bad number.

Especially with no Avatar in the 2Q in the comparisons to drive it down I think that's a favorable place for that metric to be. You are arguing that triple the 8% rate at this time is just not good enough in your eyes as somehow you are divining that the better TBO should have produced some mystical level of a better result.

Again we will talk about Avatar in the next quarterly comparisons but once again realize that the TBO is a rough rough metric that gives impact but can be made of many parts that affect sales more than others. Avatar Twilight and other 1Q-2Q-3Q tentpoles have more impact than their box office may show in the TBO variation and a lot of $10 M - $25 M titles may not have the same impact of a $100 M or $200 M blockbusters even if the TBO adds up cumulatively to be similar.

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Old 04-07-2012, 10:45 PM   #38
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One would think so. It's not the only indicator, but in Blu-ray's case, since the top 20 is such a large portion of their sales, it is by far the biggest indicator.
In the past it has been known to show very strong improvement under positive YoY box office. This year so far has been an exception. I don't recall any quarter ever where Blu-ray was up less than 50% under positive (greater than zero) BO YoY conditions. And it's not only above zero, it's way above zero. I don't get it.
Exactly. Box office strength up so high would result if far stronger BD % YoY growth if it (Blu-ray) was bucking its trend.


Back to the point of this thread: It will be interesting to see if DVD continues to buck the trend while Blu-ray continues it's plateauing trend. Without a doubt, the shift in DVD trend is the story of 2012.
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Old 04-07-2012, 10:45 PM   #39
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The holiday seasonality factor is a part of it, but it's also because Blu-ray's market share really hasn't grown that much since December 2010. According to HMM, it was 20.5% in that quarter and so far this quarter it's still only 23.9%.

Looking at isolated shares of favorable Blu-ray genre flicks really doesn't give you a realistic idea of what's going on which market share growth as a whole.
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Old 04-07-2012, 10:51 PM   #40
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The holiday seasonality factor is a part of it, but it's also because Blu-ray's market share really hasn't grown that much since December 2010. According to HMM, it was 20.5% in that quarter and so far this quarter it's still only 23.9%.

Looking at isolated shares of favorable Blu-ray genre flicks really doesn't give you a realistic idea of what's going on which market share growth as a whole.
As a reminder... last year the Q1 and H1 performance of Blu-ray gave a strong indicator of where it would end the year by taking into account BO shifts. Indeed, I was very close to the year end number by looking at early 2011 results while others were still projecting (more than) double what BD growth ended the year at.

This year it is clear from the early numbers that even strong box office lead-in is not enough to propel Blu-ray up even 25%. As box office normalizes and relative catalog weakness comes into play, Blu-ray will probably end up somewhere between 12%-18% YoY gain. We will know more about where in that range things will be after Hunger Games Home Video release and we see Dark Knight and Avenger domestic BO numbers.
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Old 04-07-2012, 10:51 PM   #41
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I do not think a current 28% YoY or a peak of 33% YoY rate for Blu-ray in the 1Q 2012 is a bad number. Especially with no Avatar in the 2Q in the comparisons to drive it down I think that's a favorable place for that metric to be. You are arguing that triple the 8% rate at this time is just not good enough in your eyes as somehow you are divining that the better TBO should have produced some mystical level of a better result.
Well going from 8% under -26% BO, to +27% under +22% BO is not at all impressive in my book. Sure the YoY "triples", but wow, look at the change in YoY box office. Seriously, can it be any more dramatically different than that?!

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Again we will talk about Avatar in the next quarterly comparisons....
I don't see why we should. Avatar was in 2010. Last year was 2011.
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Old 04-07-2012, 10:56 PM   #42
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The holiday seasonality factor is a part of it, but it's also because Blu-ray's market share really hasn't grown that much since December 2010. According to HMM, it was 20.5% in that quarter and so far this quarter it's still only 23.9%.

Looking at isolated shares of favorable Blu-ray genre flicks really doesn't give you a realistic idea of what's going on which market share growth as a whole.
The 4Q is always higher and then the following 1Q is more modest in the last few years.

The marketshare has grown apples to apples 1Q to 1Q every year.





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Old 04-07-2012, 10:58 PM   #43
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As a reminder... last year the Q1 and H1 performance of Blu-ray gave a strong indicator of where it would end the year by taking into account BO shifts. Indeed, I was very close to the year end number by looking at early 2011 results while others were still projecting (more than) double what BD growth ended the year at.
Yeah I remember you forecasting around 25%, is that right?

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This year it is clear from the early numbers that even strong box office lead-in is not enough to propel Blu-ray up even 25%. As box office normalizes and relative catalog weakness comes into play, Blu-ray will probably end up somewhere between 12%-18% YoY gain. We will know more about where in that range things will be after Hunger Games Home Video release and we see Dark Knight and Avenger domestic BO numbers.
12-18% sounds about right, if that estimate is based in light of flat box office. I estimate that last year Blu-ray would have ended up with 30% YoY and DVD -15% under flat BO conditions. So the above figure falls in line with the growth curve evidenced thus far.
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Old 04-07-2012, 11:00 PM   #44
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Well going from 8% under -26% BO, to +27% under +22% BO is not at all impressive in my book. Sure the YoY "triples", but wow, look at the change in YoY box office. Seriously, can it be any more dramatically different than that?!
Not only is it not impressive, it is expected. That growth number for Blu-ray with that level of BO strength lead-in simply signifies that nothing has changed for Blu-ray.

Growth is plateauing. The question is how long it can hold the level between $2-$3 billion before it starts to decline. I don't think we will see clear evidence of that this year, but I was also a bit optimistic about Blu-ray performance at this time last year.
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Old 04-07-2012, 11:02 PM   #45
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The 4Q is always higher and then the following 1Q is more modest in the last few years.

The marketshare has grown apples to apples 1Q to 1Q every year.

YoY Q1 market share growth has been especially weak this time around, up only 4% from last year. Normally it goes up 6-7%.
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