Disney and the BDA talk Blu-ray Streaming and UltraViolet

Malanthius

You just seem to want to discount Blurays poor performance every step of the way. You make light and even deny expectations or it failing to meet projections. Yes I know Bluray is still growing. The question is, is that growth healthy? Is that growth going to save the OD market? Is Bluray living up to its potential? The answer is No, No and No. Or do you disagree? Am I going to get another vague speech from you that says nothing? Like "Bluray continues to grow". What does that even mean when we are all talking about the health of the industry and Blurays failure to do what it was meant to do? You even agree that Bluray will never get the studios back to DVDs reign. Yet comments like the one I just mentioned contridict those statements. You use them to make light of the situation and avoid admitting Blurays failure.

PSound

We all know the PR story being sold here.

Right now Blu-ray growth in 2012 is tracking BO strength almost 1:1. That is with a major selling catalog release (one that beat the week 1 sales of a major new release).

That is not "growth". That is benefiting from a strong release slate.

PSound

Reposting since it clearly and unequivocally shows studio expectations that Blu-ray would cover DVD attrition. Stating otherwise is knowingly posting and stating false information.

I will let Webster define that act....

PSound

Again, it is easy to see that an idea is being sold. One that requires blinders to known facts, trends and even studio exec statements.

Which is why certain facts, trends or quotes are either ignored or vehemently discredited. It is why attempts are constantly made to silence certain facts, trends or information.


It is hard to sell a story and not look a fool when unambiguous facts are presented that blow a whole in the story being sold.

Kosty

All I can state is what I knew at the time with the projections I saw during the format war that went out to 4Q 2010. Where we were at 4Q 2010 for Blu-ray units and revenues were above what I remember projected for Blu-ray units, revenues and marketshare.

What was not anticipated was the degree that DVD revenues would decline, especially for non new release sales. DVD revenues declined far greater than what I saw in those industry forecasts from either the HD DVD side or the BDA at the time.

Blu-ray (through 4Q 2010) grew faster than anticipated, its the DVD attrition through 4Q 2010 that was greater than anticipated.

Kosty

How in the heck you can define a paraphrased comment that includes the word "might" in it as "clearly and unequivocal" is beyond me.

Continuing to insist on such seems to be rather telling.

bruceames

I tend to agree with Kosty that the statement is not so clear and definitive and besides it's just the opinion of that particular person(s) and not necessarily representative of the movie industry as a whole (not to mention that it could be just his spin and not his real opinion)

My guess is that not all studio execs expected Blu-ray to cover DVD's attrition, but some did. Some were more hopeful than others, and some were more realistic. But just like us, they really had no clue what would happen.

However on the whole I believe that the studios are disappointed in how OD sales have responded after the introduction of Blu-ray. With last year's decline at over 13 percent and a 35 percent decline in sell-through since its peak in 2006, it's hard to imagine why they would not be disappointed.

I think a lot of their disappointment lies in the inability of Blu-ray to resell catalog and TV shows to what they had hoped for (as opposed to new release sales, which are down, but to a lesser extent). They are probably disappointed at the price erosion of catalog on both formats, and cheap DVDs make expensive Blu-ray catalog a tough sell, and so we get the price erosion we see on Blu-ray as well.

__________________
RIP Kosty.

Just say NO to "always on" camera mounted on devices in your living room.

Kosty

I think that the studios and retailers are more upbeat about Blu-ray new release sales than catalog sales. Even though Blu-ray catalog sales are steadily increasing over time and some major new to Blu-ray titles have done exceptionally well, there still is a wait and see attitude for the investment into some deeper catalog offerings from the studio libraries and what investment in restoration can be justified.

There have been some titles like the Looney Toons collection and other deeper catalog releases that have been closely monitored for consumer reactions.

Much of the DVD theatrical release inventory is destined to be released on Blu-ray sooner or later, the issue is the timing and the resources invested to clean up the source material.

In many cases, a balance has to be made in the timimg of the releases for catalog titles as all things considered the later the planned release date with a larger household penetration of Blu-ray the greater the intial sales burst.

Releases also have to be stretched out over the planning window of the years of potential vialbility for the Blu-ray format. It makes no sense to release everything at once when the format is still gaining owners each year.

Releases have to be placed into a consistent workflow and need to be spread out to maintain consumer interest and not leave either gaps nor stepping over each other in their release dates.

Certain genres and deeper catalog make sense to release later in Blu-ray's life cycle when more owners are in the market.

Overall, I think that last year marked the point when the studios have decided that its now time to start releasing the marque releases and we have two or maybe even three years to go to spread out many of the remaining event type titles.

Catalog sales for Blu-ray will also naturally increase over time as the use base expands and retailers displace more DVD with Blu-ray at retail.

Another counter-intuitive factor is that perhaps DVD catalog sales even in generating less revenues because of lower price points still are surprisingly large in the aggregate in total volume and revenues. As long as that is the case and DVD sales are still bringing in billions off the sale of old or repackaged DVD releases, there is no sense of urgency to kill off DVD catalog sales if its still making lots of money.

But even when Blu-ray catalog sales are increasing and more units are sold when titles are released and virtually all if not all Blu-ray releases from major studios are making money (that's why we see them being released) some genres and some types of releases on Blu-ray are not as strong as some in the industry would have hoped for at this time.

But Blu-ray catalog title releases are not as time sensitive as new releases which have to pretty much be on schedule from their theatrical window, so there is more flexibility in scheduling how and when to release much of the studio libraries remaining in inventory.

Looking at the current release schedule pace for Blu-ray catalog titles its kinda hard to see how it could increase more without releases stepping on each other from my perspective.

PSound

The combined statements are not ambiguous. They expected growth to return by the end of 2010:

They expected Blu-ray to make up for DVD decline in that timeframe:

That is a fact.

You are working very hard to dismiss those very clear and unambiguous studio exec statements. I understand why, but it does not change that the statements were made and are very clear.

PSound

I think in the case of David Bishop, the combined statements are clear and unambiguous.

I do agree that there were varying degrees in expectations. Lionsgate (for example) clearly believed that Blu-ray alone would not be enough. I am certain they expected Blu-ray to be the main driver for making up the DVD gap. That is why I stated before that the studios are disappointed to varying degrees.

My point is the PR push to state that Blu-ray has had no failed studio expectations. That is clearly a false statement.

1stSilverado

Even if the word "might" is used, the intent is there. Expectations were solidly there, there had to be.
If the BDA had gone to the CE companies and studios with the pitch of "compliment DVD" expectations, would they have jumped on board prepared to spend millions in R and D and upgrade to make BD? Do you think Toshiba would have caught wind of low expectations from the BDA and promised those same companies the moon?
Simple logic says that covering DVDs attrition is the least of expectations, or a hell of a lot of money was pissed away intentionally

PSound

From reading all the quotes and the article it is clear that the expectation was there. The only "might" was when exactly that might occur. And from the general tone of the article it seemed the expectation in late 2008 was for it to occur within a reasonable amount of time from the end of 2010.

PSound

And to address the other PR falsehood being pushed:

The one stating "Blu-ray is not covering DVD declines because DVD is declining faster than expected".

Really? We are supposed to believe that the studios believed that DVD would decline less than $350 million in 2011? Because that is what would have needed to happen for Blu-ray to cover DVD attrition in 2011.

Absolutely ludicrous to expect people to believe that in 2008, studios were really expecting DVD to only decline $350 million in 2011.

Kosty

What would be ludicrous would be to expect anyone at the time that Blu-ray was being developed to anticipate the rise and success of Netflix unlimited DVD rental and unlimited subscription streaming, $1 a night DVD rentals at Redbox kiosks, devaluation of DVD prices at retail, the huge rise in portable devices, iPads,iPhones and Android devices, smartphones and tablets, video and gaming apps and texting and social media and the greatest sustained economic downturn and unemployment levels since the Great Depression all happening after Blu-ray was launched.

Of of the above have increased DVD rentals or cannibalized higher margin packaged media and hardly could have been predicted at their level of success when Blu-ray was being launched or created.

Kosty

I do not think anyone in 2008 would have hazarded a guess on what the box office performance would be in 2010 or 2011 or anticipated how Twilight and Avatar would perform.

No one there was even talking about 2011 in those remarks.