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Disney and the BDA talk Blu-ray Streaming and UltraViolet

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Old 02-26-2012, 09:18 PM   #91
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Yes, but you then need to weigh those percentages to get the relative effect. DVD declining 20% has a much bigger impact on OD than Blu-ray increasing 20%.
Also when you decline a % it takes even more to get back that loss. Say something goes down 50%. It takes 100% gain to get back to even.
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Old 02-26-2012, 09:27 PM   #92
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The magnitude of the respective delta in 2011 was pretty stark.
That's an accurate way of describing it.
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Old 02-26-2012, 09:28 PM   #93
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Also when you decline a % it takes even more to get back that loss. Say something goes down 50%. It takes 100% gain to get back to even.
Good point. Unfortunately for formats though, once they start down they never come back up.
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Old 02-26-2012, 10:09 PM   #94
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Good point. Unfortunately for formats though, once they start down they never come back up.
OD is never going to rise back to its levels of 2006 or 2007.

But the losses may stabilize sometime at a lower level when there is less YoY attrition like we saw in 3Q 2011 or currently in 1Q 2012.

But as the DEg charts indicate its not just the DVD and BD = OD revenue streams that the studios are concerned about and other formats like Netflix streaming royalties and EST and potentially UltraViolet will also contribute along with Blu-ray to offset the attrition of the DVD revenue stream.
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Old 02-26-2012, 10:17 PM   #95
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OD is never going to rise back to its levels of 2006 or 2007.

But the losses may stabilize sometime at a lower level when there is less YoY attrition like we saw in 3Q 2011 or currently in 1Q 2012.

But as the DEg charts indicate its not just the DVD and BD = OD revenue streams that the studios are concerned about and other formats like Netflix streaming royalties and EST and potentially UltraViolet will also contribute along with Blu-ray to offset the attrition of the DVD revenue stream.
Despite studio execs stating that they expected Blu-ray alone to offset DVDs decline, it likely will have to be combined revenue streams for that to happen.
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Old 02-26-2012, 10:41 PM   #96
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Despite studio execs stating that they expected Blu-ray alone to offset DVDs decline, it likely will have to be combined revenue streams for that to happen.
Well its getting pretty close for the combined revenue streams already.

For Blu-ray plus DVD its been close for some recent periods as well.

But its quite possible that sooner that later that the combined YoY DVD+BD=OD comparisons will stabilize as well, albeit at a much lower level than when DVD was alone at its height and cheap rental alternatives and Internet options were not so advanced.

As i said before 3Q 2011 and 1Q 2012 to date are actually pretty close to that benchmark already. 6 weeks into 2012 we are at only -2.7% for OD and 3Q 2011 was at -4.0%.
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Old 02-26-2012, 10:41 PM   #97
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I'm suprised you asked this question. It's simple. There are several reasons.

The devaluation of DVD. One of the reasons people that have stopped buying DVDs and have not moved to Bluray probably feel they they shouldn't keep investing in an obsolete format. That brings me reason two.

If you still want to watch movies there are several choices.
Renting. Can you say redbox?
Streaming. Can you say Netflix?
Piracy. Can you say Netflix and anydvd? Or how about torrents?

People can also just wait for movies to show up on pay HD channels in glorious HD. Plus there is always PPV and VOD.

For physical media to continue its reign it needs one important thing. New customers. This new emerging generation has better things to do. Games that have immersion like never before. Social networking like Facebook and Redit.

So there you have it. But of course you know these things. You just choose to ignore them so you can continue to post positive Bluray comments and ask me such a simple question.

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How do you explain that current new release unit marketshares are so high for Blu-ray then?

New releases are mass market items. Blu-ray is doing best in that category.

Most of the OD declines is in the revenues generated from catalog DVD sales. Its very true that Blu-ray catalog sales revenues have not covered the attrition in revenues from DVD catalog sales, but that's different from talking about retailer support for new releases.
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Old 02-26-2012, 10:44 PM   #98
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
OD is never going to rise back to its levels of 2006 or 2007.

But the losses may stabilize sometime at a lower level when there is less YoY attrition like we saw in 3Q 2011 or currently in 1Q 2012.

But as the DEg charts indicate its not just the DVD and BD = OD revenue streams that the studios are concerned about and other formats like Netflix streaming royalties and EST and potentially UltraViolet will also contribute along with Blu-ray to offset the attrition of the DVD revenue stream.
Yes, but counting Netflix streaming along the same lines as OD or EST revenue is misleading because a large share is TV shows that the studios also license to the cable tv stations. I'm sure Netflix is cannibalizing the cable/sat industry, which has never been counted by the DEG. Therefore, much of the revenue gained is coming from uncounted sources.

If you're going to count Netflix streaming royalties, then you should be counting all royalties gained from licensed content to all distributors.
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Old 02-26-2012, 10:48 PM   #99
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Sooner or later. So true! DVD just needs to keep dying more to make it a bit easier for Bluray to meet that ever increasing goal. One that it failed to do in 2010. One that it failed to do in 2011. One that it will likely fail in 2012. When will you admit that those expectations were not met? Oh that's right! You don't believe there were any expectations! You never heard any with allllll your insider connections. Makes perfect sense! The jig is up Kosty.

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Well its getting pretty close for the combined revenue streams already.

For Blu-ray plus DVD its been close for some recent periods as well.

But its quite possible that sooner that later that the combined YoY DVD+BD=OD comparisons will stabilize as well, albeit at a much lower level than when DVD was alone at its height and cheap rental alternatives and Internet options were not so advanced.

As i said before 3Q 2011 and 1Q 2012 to date are actually pretty close to that benchmark already. 6 weeks into 2012 we are at only -2.7% for OD and 3Q 2011 was at -4.0%.
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Old 02-26-2012, 11:07 PM   #100
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Yes, but counting Netflix streaming along the same lines as OD or EST revenue is misleading because a large share is TV shows that the studios also license to the cable tv stations. I'm sure Netflix is cannibalizing the cable/sat industry, which has never been counted by the DEG. Therefore, much of the revenue gained is coming from uncounted sources.

If you're going to count Netflix streaming royalties, then you should be counting all royalties gained from licensed content to all distributors.
The Netflix royalty payments are not included only the consumer revenues from subscription streaming which is replacing subscription DVD rentals from Netflix.

Netflix content fees to the studios is indeed a new revenue stream to the studios for content like older royalty streams for cable. But those license and royalty streams are not counted in the DEG statistics.

Its the Netflix streaming consumer payment revenues that are now counted separately and the argument there is that they are simply a newer digital rental revenue stream that is displacing DVD rental revenues from Netlfix which were previously already counted.

Its not like the DEG is counting either the business to business revenues from cable sat or Netflix.

The annual Home Entertainment Report has never included cable sat subscription revenues.

The folks at DEG disagree with you there. So do I.
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Old 02-26-2012, 11:13 PM   #101
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Sooner or later. So true! DVD just needs to keep dying more to make it a bit easier for Bluray to meet that ever increasing goal. One that it failed to do in 2010. One that it failed to do in 2011. One that it will likely fail in 2012. When will you admit that those expectations were not met? Oh that's right! You don't believe there were any expectations! You never heard any with allllll your insider connections. Makes perfect sense! The jig is up Kosty.
As I stated to you before the only "expectations" I really knew about were for HD DVD or Blu-ray alone or together being projected out to 4Q 2010.

Blu-ray's revenue and marketshare at the 4Q 2010 mark were higher than anything I ever saw projected for either Blu-ray or DVD alone or the two formats combined. What was lower was DVDs revenues which had declined faster than what was projected.

I assume most of the additional DVD attrition that was faster than projected was not only the rise of cheap rental alternatives like Redbox and Netflix but from the lousy economy and the Great Recession starting in 2008.

Its not so much that Blu-ray grew slower than projected its that DVD revenues declined faster than anticipated.
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Old 02-26-2012, 11:22 PM   #102
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Well its getting pretty close for the combined revenue streams already.

For Blu-ray plus DVD its been close for some recent periods as well.

But its quite possible that sooner that later that the combined YoY DVD+BD=OD comparisons will stabilize as well, albeit at a much lower level than when DVD was alone at its height and cheap rental alternatives and Internet options were not so advanced.

As i said before 3Q 2011 and 1Q 2012 to date are actually pretty close to that benchmark already. 6 weeks into 2012 we are at only -2.7% for OD and 3Q 2011 was at -4.0%.
That is with a major catalog release (one that outsold a $200 million new release on BD), and unsustainable box office lead-in strength.

About the same thing as Q3 2011.


Normalize the box office (which longer reporting periods do), and it is very unlikely to happen anytime soon particularly with BD growth already sub 20% for a yearly reporting period.
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Old 02-26-2012, 11:49 PM   #103
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I also stated that my only "expectations" I knew about in the format war period were projections up to 4Q 2010. That article in any case was after the format war near the end of 2008. Its also not a quote but Susan Ault's paraphrase in any case so it also leaves some room for interpetation besides not applying to all studios.

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As I stated to you before the only "expectations" I really knew about were for HD DVD or Blu-ray alone or together being projected out to 4Q 2010.
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Old 02-27-2012, 06:24 AM   #104
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That last line is interesting. You want me to believe you actually think Bluray is growing normally? That it's growth is healthy? If Bluray was doing what it was designed to do we would see much greater growth. I don't believe you think that for a second. I think that's just you making light of the situation. Moving the goalposts. Nice job.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
As I stated to you before the only "expectations" I really knew about were for HD DVD or Blu-ray alone or together being projected out to 4Q 2010.

Blu-ray's revenue and marketshare at the 4Q 2010 mark were higher than anything I ever saw projected for either Blu-ray or DVD alone or the two formats combined. What was lower was DVDs revenues which had declined faster than what was projected.

I assume most of the additional DVD attrition that was faster than projected was not only the rise of cheap rental alternatives like Redbox and Netflix but from the lousy economy and the Great Recession starting in 2008.

Its not so much that Blu-ray grew slower than projected its that DVD revenues declined faster than anticipated.
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Old 02-27-2012, 07:08 AM   #105
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That last line is interesting. You want me to believe you actually think Bluray is growing normally? That it's growth is healthy? If Bluray was doing what it was designed to do we would see much greater growth. I don't believe you think that for a second. I think that's just you making light of the situation. Moving the goalposts. Nice job.
I think Blu-ray is consistently growing over time both in units and revenues. The YoY growth we saw for the entire year of 2011 was greatly influenced by the disparity in the box office power of new releases which affected DVD even more.

At the moment we are at +27.6 % YoY growth and there is not much between now and September in the comparison weeks to dramatically knock it down in a single period so that growth rate will be biased around that benchmark for much of the year. The current TBO is around 26% up through 6 weeks of 2012.

Blu-ray was up +15.5 in the 4Q 2011 when the TBO disparity was -5.95% and Blu-ray was up +58.0% when the TBO was +12.23%.

Units continue to rise even greater than revenues and Blu-ray marketshares also continue to increase over time which are more indicators of increasing consumer demand.

Without the huge box office disparity that we saw in the first half of 2011 vs the 1H 2010 period where we saw the Twilight: Eclipse and Avatar releases the YoY comparisons this year my be more favorable all the way through most of the 3Q 2012 period.

I do not know what "growing normally" would be defined as but I do see Blu-ray growing over time and I see at the moment in 2012 with a more favorable TBO comparison than last year already in play that Blu-ray continues to grow in revenues, units and marketshare.

It will be interesting to see what happens this year and if initiatives like UltraViolet and increased rental windows have any affect as the studios hope on packaged media sell through. Better releases and a better economy will also help a bit.
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