Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

[Ray Von Geezer]

Originally Posted by PSound

Too bad. I can just about guarantee that more HD content will be watched from those devices than Blu-ray in the coming years.

I think you're maybe being a bit optimistic there.

They're going to release a (likely) premium priced smart TV into a commoditized HDTV market that's approaching saturation and where, despite throwing in everything but the kitchen sink, there's barely a top tier manufacturer who is making money.

I think sales of the Apple TV were reportedly about 2.5 million last year, so it doesn't look like their media streamer functionality is that compulsive a story on its own. Even throwing in Siri & motion control (if the rumours play out) is there enough there for mass-market consumers to justify paying three or four times over the odds? Looks very doubtful.

Ray Von

[PSound]

Originally Posted by bruceames

They were moved to the flat panel TV forum because the Apple TV is a flat panel TV and not HD physical media or EST.

That forum sees a lot of activity, but if you really want to discuss it here, you can do it in this thread (for lack of a dedicated "catch all" or otherwise off forum topic thread).

Do you really think of the Apple TV as just another flat screen TV?

That is like calling the iPad just another portable. Apple's iOS devices always come with a software ecosystem that impact the market they enter.

But again.. not a huge deal one way or the other to me. I do think it is leaving a massive blind spot to HD media consumption to treat the Apple TV as just another piece of hardware.

[bombsnizzle]

Originally Posted by PSound

Do you really think of the Apple TV as just another flat screen TV?

That is like calling the iPad just another portable. Apple's iOS devices always come with a software ecosystem that impact the market they enter.

But again.. not a huge deal one way or the other to me. I do think it is leaving a massive blind spot to HD media consumption to treat the Apple TV as just another piece of hardware.

Apple TV has existed as a product for years, and has done very little to make EST a factor.

Why will putting this pre-exisiting $100 box inside a TV and selling it for $1500 make a difference?

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by PSound

Do you really think of the Apple TV as just another flat screen TV?

That is like calling the iPad just another portable. Apple's iOS devices always come with a software ecosystem that impact the market they enter.

But again.. not a huge deal one way or the other to me. I do think it is leaving a massive blind spot to HD media consumption to treat the Apple TV as just another piece of hardware.

So how will the Apple TV affect Blu-ray adoption? If you can discuss it in that light, then sure it's a valid topic around here. That's why HDF is subdivided into many different areas, so each subforum specializes in a certain subset of the HD picture. Members are encouraged to visit all the subforums that interest them.

Having said that, I'm not a stickler on not having any threads that drift away from HD Media. Some people (myself included actually) prefer hanging out primarily in one area and arguing with the same people. So my goal is to balance keeping discussion open as much as possible to the topics people here want to discuss, while adhering to the topic of the subforum as well.

Remember that I did make a general streaming thread about streaming topics that you want to discuss here. I'm not too familiar with what the iTV is and what it can do, but if you think it will be a recurring topic of interest, in light of how it affects HD media adoption, then you (or someone else or myself) can create a general thread about Apple TV as well.

[PSound]

Originally Posted by bruceames

So how will the Apple TV affect Blu-ray adoption?

Again, it is a piece of Apple hardware based on the Apple iOS that looks to fundamentally shift an existing market.

Being Apple, we won't know exactly what will be in it until release. Also being Apple, you don't know quite the extent of the impact but it is silly (IMO) to pretend it doesn't exist.


Again, I really don't care if it gets buried here. I do think that Apple entering the market is big news. If they deliver the way the did with the iPod, iPhone or iPad then it would fundamentally change the way HD media is sold and distributed.

[bruceames]

Nielsen First Alert top 20 sales are up for week ending 2/6/12:

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-020512

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-020512

Notable that week 2 release Paranormal Activity 3 ($104 million box office title with a 2 week exclusive BD window) didn't even make it in the OD top 20. Very unimpressive, let's see what the DVD does next week.

Here are the new release / recent release (2-4 weeks) / older release (5+ weeks old) ratios for weeks ending 2/6/12 and 2/7/11

2/6/12: 62.8% / 18.7% / 18.5%, $118.5M TBO
2/7/11: 36.8% / 34.4% / 28.8%, $23.0M TBO

Difference: 26.0% / -15.7% / -10.3%, $95.5M TBO (515.2%)

Should be a good up week for Blu-ray, although last year wasn't bad at $27.18 million HMM reported revenue. Blu-ray is averaging only $29.8 million per week so far this year on $147 million TBO per week.

[Kosty]

Blu-ray had three new releases with pretty high marketshare this week.

Blu-Ray Unit Marketshare 2/05/12

57% Drive
54% In Time
55% The Thing

[chipvideo]

I expect a bad dvd week. BD is not gaining the lost dvd sales.

[bombsnizzle]

Originally Posted by PSound

Again, it is a piece of Apple hardware based on the Apple iOS that looks to fundamentally shift an existing market.

Being Apple, we won't know exactly what will be in it until release. Also being Apple, you don't know quite the extent of the impact but it is silly (IMO) to pretend it doesn't exist.


Again, I really don't care if it gets buried here. I do think that Apple entering the market is big news. If they deliver the way the did with the iPod, iPhone or iPad then it would fundamentally change the way HD media is sold and distributed.

That's a weird thing to say since the Apple TV has been sold for years and hasn't done a damn thing to "fundamentally change the way HD media is sold and distributed".

You know, this thing:


Please explain to me why merely placing this little black box inside a TV will change anything. HDTVs already come with a ton of services to watch HD movies - Vudu, Blockbuster, etc. Why is an Apple branded TV going to drastically change consumption of HD content?

The iPad has contributed no significant increase to EST or VOD revenue. Neither has the Apple TV. Oh and Apple still doesn't support UV either. So the pattern here (aka the facts) shows your speculation to be inaccurate and way off base.

[GizmoDVD]

Originally Posted by Kosty

Blu-ray had three new releases with pretty high marketshare this week.

Blu-Ray Unit Marketshare 2/05/12

57% Drive
54% In Time
55% The Thing

As we've learned before, those %'s mean nothing.

All 3 titles were $19.99 or less on release week.

[Malanthius]

Originally Posted by bombsnizzle

That's a weird thing to say since the Apple TV has been sold for years and hasn't done a damn thing to "fundamentally change the way HD media is sold and distributed".

You know, this thing:


Please explain to me why merely placing this little black box inside a TV will change anything. HDTVs already come with a ton of services to watch HD movies - Vudu, Blockbuster, etc. Why is an Apple branded TV going to drastically change consumption of HD content?

The iPad has contributed no significant increase to EST or VOD revenue. Neither has the Apple TV. Oh and Apple still doesn't support UV either. So the pattern here (aka the facts) shows your speculation to be inaccurate and way off base.

Umm I think that's why he said "if they deliver" like they did with thier other hit products. Because "if" it's a hit like those products? It can make big changes.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Kosty

Blu-ray had three new releases with pretty high marketshare this week.

Blu-Ray Unit Marketshare 2/05/12

57% Drive
54% In Time
55% The Thing

Yeah those titles did pretty good, contributing to Blu-ray as a whole having a 42.3% top 20 share for that week (about 5% above average). So that should help bump up the total revenue a tad, but certainly no help from Paranormal Activity 3.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by chipvideo

I expect a bad dvd week. BD is not gaining the lost dvd sales.

Things are only going to get worse for DVD, and like you say, Blu-ray is consistently not there to pick up the slack. It can barely keep up with its own pace. Hopefully next week we can finally see double digit YoY gains for the underperforming format.

[bruceames]

I was looking at the DEG table summary and noticed that DVD never saw growth under 31% until 2005, 8 years after launch. After falling steeply to 8% that year, it was the last year it saw any growth at all (3%).

Blu-ray's growth fell steeply to under 20% last year. Like DVD, could this be the last year it sees growth as well?

Year	ODsell	YoY%	DVDsell	YoY%	BDsell	YoY%	Odrent	YoY%
1999	0.96	0.0%	0.96	0.0%	0.00	0.0%	0.14	0.0%
2000	1.82	89.6%	1.82	89.6%	0.00	0.0%	0.58	314.3%
2001	4.21	131.3%	4.21	131.3%	0.00	0.0%	1.09	87.9%
2002	6.45	53.2%	6.45	53.2%	0.00	0.0%	2.15	97.2%
2003	9.44	46.4%	9.44	46.4%	0.00	0.0%	3.66	70.2%
2004	12.45	31.9%	12.45	31.9%	0.00	0.0%	4.25	16.1%
2005	13.51	8.5%	13.51	8.5%	0.00	0.0%	5.39	26.8%
2006	13.91	3.0%	13.89	2.8%	0.02	0.0%	6.29	16.7%
2007	13.63	-2.0%	13.38	-3.7%	0.25	1125.0%	6.36	1.1%
2008	13.13	-3.7%	12.48	-6.7%	0.63	152.0%	6.17	-3.0%
2009	11.62	-11.5%	10.55	-15.5%	1.07	70.0%	5.68	-7.9%
2010	10.70	-7.9%	8.90	-15.6%	1.80	68.2%	5.80	2.1%
2011	8.95	-16.4%	6.85	-23.0%	2.15	19.4%	5.67	-2.4%

Figures are in billions.
% BD = sell through percentage of BD vs. OD.
% rent = percentage of OD rentals (BD + DVD)

Year Total   DVDsell  DVDrent  BDsell  BDrent	% rent	% BD

1999	1.1	0.96	0.14	0.00	0.00	12.5%	0.0%
2000	2.4	1.82	0.58	0.00	0.00	24.0%	0.0%
2001	5.3	4.21	1.09	0.00	0.00	20.6%	0.0%
2002	8.6	6.45	2.15	0.00	0.00	25.0%	0.0%
2003	13.1	9.44	3.66	0.00	0.00	28.0%	0.0%
2004	16.7	12.45	4.25	0.00	0.00	25.5%	0.0%
2005	18.9	13.51	5.39	0.00	0.00	28.5%	0.0%
2006	20.2	13.89	6.29	0.02	0.00	31.1%	0.1%
2007	20.0	13.38	6.31*	0.25	0.05*	32.1%	1.8%
2008	19.3	12.48	5.92	0.63	0.27	33.0%	5.0%
2009	17.3	10.55	5.25	1.07	0.43	32.8%	9.2%
2010	16.3	8.90	5.10	1.80	0.50	34.4%  16.8%
2011	14.6	6.85	4.90*	2.15	0.77*	38.8%  24.0%

* = estimate

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

As we've learned before, those %'s mean nothing.

All 3 titles were $19.99 or less on release week.

That's still more that most new release DVDs.

Plus that's the first time I remember seeing three new releases having such as high Blu-ray unit marketshares like that.

As always you can try to belittle any positive signs of progress but its just another sign of increasing Blu-ray progress with new release shares which is something retailers and the studios notice even if you want to ignore it.