Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

[Lee Stewart]

Originally Posted by bruceames

So when are going to see the actual DEG report? I want to see that table that they've started publishing this year. Also, I'm getting dizzy from all these revisions. Now last year's $18.8 billion is $18.4 billion? Seems like a revision history chart is almost as essential as the actual reports themselves.

Amazing isn't it? Also please tell me how the math works on this . . .

2010 - BD spending (sales) is $1.8B. 2011 - BD spending - sales reaches $2.0 billion - BD is up 20% YOY. How does 12% = 20%?

And down only 2% because they added in nearly $1 billion in subscription streaming is ridiculous. For my own purposes, I'm going to ignore the streaming revenue and consider just what they had been including all along (sales and rentals).

It's called pulling a rabbit out of a hat.

Apples to apples, home entertainment (sales + rental) revenue is actually down 7.5%. $17.05 billion this year (no subscription streaming) vs. $18.43 last year. At least that makes mathematical sense.

I know that . . . you know that . . . but if the whole world knew that, there would be a panic in the media.

[chipvideo]

Originally Posted by PSound

I expect them to continue the trend.

If HBO Go goes OTT, they will add that revenue too!

Thats just flat out wrong. Sub based income should not be counted.

Its not an apples to apples comparison anymore. Doesnt matter. I still will look at the packaged media sales for health of Hollywood. Sales is all that matters. Rentals are revenue for the renter not the studio.

[PSound]

Originally Posted by chipvideo

Thats just flat out wrong. Sub based income should not be counted.

Its not an apples to apples comparison anymore. Doesnt matter. I still will look at the packaged media sales for health of Hollywood. Sales is all that matters. Rentals are revenue for the renter not the studio.

It is what it is.

It was bad enough when OD sell through was in decline.

Now OD rental is also in decline. There is no way a PR trade group is going to let that be the focus of discussion.

[chipvideo]

Originally Posted by PSound

It is what it is.

It was bad enough when OD sell through was in decline.

Now OD rental is also in decline. There is no way a PR trade group is going to let that be the focus of discussion.

At least we know the truth. Thats why we are on the boards. To spread the truth and not take crap from promoters.

Hollywood is shooting themselves in the foot. They are using ani-consumer tactics and it is proving to be the wrong thing.

Once you piss off a consumer you don't ever get them back.

[bombsnizzle]

Originally Posted by PSound

It is what it is.

It was bad enough when OD sell through was in decline.

Now OD rental is also in decline. There is no way a PR trade group is going to let that be the focus of discussion.

Kind of like how they let $683M EST be a focal point of discussion, when that number was about $175M off?

We now know EST for 2011 is $553M, and thus that $683M for 2010 was pure BS.

That $683M that you thought was so astounding for 2010 was $175M away from being accurate. Meaning EST was/is even more pathetic.

[PSound]

Originally Posted by chipvideo

At least we know the truth. Thats why we are on the boards. To spread the truth and not take crap from promoters.

Yep.

I like that we can discuss the actual numbers here without the typical PR crap associated (deflection and/or denial).

OD sell through is in decline. OD rental is in decline. Even with the adjusted numbers. No amount of BS spin, denial or deflection can change those facts.

[bombsnizzle]

4

Originally Posted by PSound

I like that we can discuss the actual numbers here without the typical PR crap associated (deflection and/or denial).

OD sell through is in decline. OD rental is in decline. Even with the adjusted numbers. No amount of BS spin, denial or deflection can change those facts.

Actual numbers? What actual numbers? No one knows the actual numbers, because they keep getting revised.

Kind of like how $683M for EST in 2010 was a flat out lie by DEG. We now know it was at least $175M less, because 2011 EST is $553M, and exhibited 9% growth...until that is they revise that downward also next year in 2012.

[PSound]

Originally Posted by bruceames

So when are going to see the actual DEG report? I want to see that table that they've started publishing this year.

We may not get it.

Bloomberg asked for specific numbers and did not get them.

Again, I think that having the chart they have used in H1 and Q3 would show that OD sales and rentals both had major declines and that streaming subscription is the only thing maintaining the "Home Video" numbers.

The DEG didn’t break down the packaged goods category and didn’t supply fourth-quarter industry data. Joanna Sulakhyan, the group’s manager, didn’t immediately respond to phone calls seeking comment.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...tml?cmpid=yhoo

[bombsnizzle]

Originally Posted by PSound

We may not get it.

Bloomberg asked for specific numbers and did not get them.

Again, I think that having the chart they have used in H1 and Q3 would show that OD sales and rentals both had major declines and that streaming subscription is the only thing maintaining the "Home Video" numbers.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...tml?cmpid=yhoo

In other words you want to try and convince everyone that Netflix is singlehandedly maintaining home video. Big f*%($*# surprise there. Your entire presence here has probably been to bring home this one singular point - Netflix is the greatest and is the savior of all.

[chipvideo]

Go take a friggin valium!!!

[PSound]

Originally Posted by chipvideo

Go take a friggin valium!!!

It is pretty amazing how some people react to the numbers.

If OD sell through is down and OD rental is down and EST and VOD are low growth, then it is obvious that streaming subscription revenue is what is making up for those major OD sell through and rental declines.

Not rocket science.

[Lee Stewart]

The latest spin on the DEG numbers from HMM's Tom Arnold:

DEG Numbers Are Good News for Home Entertainment

Consumer home entertainment spending numbers, released Jan. 9 by DEG: The Digital Entertainment Group, should have Hollywood studio executives jumping for joy.

Sure, total consumer spending on home entertainment for 2011 was down about 2% from the previous year, with a surprisingly strong third quarter followed by a disappointing fourth quarter.

And, yes, spending on packaged media — still Hollywood's bread-and-butter — once again declined in the double digits, albeit not as dramatically as in the last two or three years.

But let's take a big-picture view of what happened. For starters, a 2% drop is virtually inconsequential, given the explosion of the app market in 2011 and all those eyeballs caught up in the novelty of playing Zombie Highway or Tiny Towers on their iPhones and iPads.

What's more, the box office value of movies that came to home entertainment in 2011 was off 8.7%, and that's traditionally been a spot-on indicator of how the home entertainment sector will fare.

As for the decline in packaged-media sales, I wish to make two points: First of all, did any of you happen to wander into a Walmart, Target or Best Buy during the holidays? Recent Blu-ray releases were selling for less than $10, while DVDs could be bought for as little as $3. Heck, I'm surprised consumer spending isn't down a lot more, given the record deep-discounting we saw in the last three months of 2011.

Each year we talk about the "race to the bottom," but based on what I saw on my own excursions to retail land in the weeks leading up to Christmas I fear next year we might find retailers giving consumers free discs just for walking through their doors.

Secondly, consumers are firmly in a state of transition. The movie collecting habit, fueled by the novelty of DVD a decade ago, is definitely waning — a product, I believe, of consumers opening their cupboards and seeing stacks of movies still in their original shrinkwrap. DVD triggered a feeding frenzy, and today, consumers, older and wiser, have simply come to realize they don't need to buy every movie that comes out just because they can.

That's why the biggest gains in 2011 were on the rental side, both physical (kiosks) and digital (VOD). Those gains, in fact, prevented the year from being a disaster, faithfully offsetting declines in sellthrough.

So, in a nutshell, consumers are by no means turning their back on bringing movies into the home. In fact, in terms of sheer transactions, I have a hunch the numbers are up, way up, despite apps, iPads and all the other distractions.

It's just the delivery method that's changing, with consumers opting to watch movies instead of also choosing to own them.

The mainstream media, no doubt, will again zero in on the drop in disc sales and proclaim the home entertainment industry to be at death's door. It's what they do.

But we know better. And if you happen to run into any skeptics, pass this column along to them. A little education never hurt.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/tks...-entertainment

[PSound]

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

The latest spin on the DEG numbers from HMM's Tom Arnold:

DEG Numbers Are Good News for Home Entertainment


http://www.homemediamagazine.com/tks...-entertainment

So ridiculous.

Especially this part:

The mainstream media, no doubt, will again zero in on the drop in disc sales and proclaim the home entertainment industry to be at death's door. It's what they do.

No Tom. The mainstream media rightfully points out that DVD is in a nosedive and Blu-ray is not making up for it.

It is some of the Blu-ray fanboys who try and point Home Video sell-through as doomed as a result.

[PSound]

This is how it is playing out in broader coverage (that does not just regurgitate the DEG release):

The home-entertainment business has been pummeled in recent years, with revenues falling for seven years in a row, in one year a full 8 percent. But last year, according to the latest numbers from a research group, things brightened slightly, thanks mostly to the rapid growth of digital streaming.

The Digital Entertainment Group, a research consortium backed by Hollywood’s major studios, released data Tuesday showing that overall home entertainment revenue declined only 2 percent in 2011. As shrinkage goes, it was the smallest since 2008 for the challenged entertainment sector, which tallied $18.4 billion in total rentals and sales for the year, according to DEG. That $18.4 billion includes the revenue for everything from DVD and Blu-ray, to cable and satellite VOD, to downloads and streaming, of movie and TV content. Interestingly, in the second half of 2011, the DEG reported that revenue from rentals and sales of “home filmed entertainment,” physical and digital alike, actually rose 1 percent.

Even though the DEG is backed by the studios, its revenue numbers are often cited as official benchmarks of industry performance. According to the DEG, the home entertainment market has declined every year since 2004, when it peaked at $21.8 billion, mainly because of the decline of DVD sales.

One caveat to the latest numbers from the DEG: They were helped by a change in the group’s equation. For the first time, the DEG included revenue from subscription streaming services, which resulted in nearly $994.6 million in additional revenue for 2011.

As the studio-backed trade group is prone to do, it touted the performance of high-margin physical media, noting that Blu-ray sales and rentals had increased 20 percent in 2011, reaching $2 billion for the first time.

Still, the market’s legacy revenue streams remain in steep decline. Rental through brick-and-mortar outlets continued to circle the drain, declining 29 percent to just $1.64 billion. And overall sales of “packaged goods” – DVD and Blu-ray – declined 13 percent to $8.9 billion, brought down by the continued cratering of the older format.

http://paidcontent.org/article/419-t...lowed-in-2011/

[Malanthius]

Originally Posted by PSound

So ridiculous.

Especially this part:



No Tom. The mainstream media rightfully points out that DVD is in a nosedive and Blu-ray is not making up for it.

It is some of the Blu-ray fanboys who try and point Home Video sell-through as doomed as a result.

You and Lee hit the nail on the head. It's so ridiculous its almost embarrassing. But like cleaning toilets for a living. I guess it pays the bills for Tom and people like him. After all he is doing what he's suppose to do. Promote? Kinda like Dom King!