Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

[chipvideo]

delete

[chipvideo]

[Malanthius]

Originally Posted by chipvideo

Dang! 2% growth for Christmas week?! Ouch! Thanks for the update Chip. Looks like Bruce was pretty close with his guess. Maybe others? I only remember him guessing around 100m. I'm thinking Bluray is going to end up flat to negitive next year. Unless it gets a few Avatar big releases. Catalog is pretty much done except for Indy. I think we are near the peak.

[PSound]

It took some time, but BD finally broke the $100 million barrier in 2011.

But with 2.2% growth it will bring down the YoY number even further.

[Lee Stewart]

Originally Posted by PSound

It took some time, but BD finally broke the $100 million barrier in 2011.

But with 2.2% growth it will bring down the YoY number even further.

I wonder if BD will show a growth rate of 15% for 2011

Even with $113M it's still at 24%

[cakefoo]

Hey guys, releases matter. Just a reminder.

[Lee Stewart]

Originally Posted by cakefoo

Hey guys, releases matter. Just a reminder.

Not as much during the Holiday Season.

[Lee Stewart]

[bruceames]

Updated thru week ending 12/17/11
Table of Blu-ray sales (HMM and DEG)
numbers are in (revenue) millions.

2011 total  8430.07   -13.6%    6477.99   -20.1%    1952.08   18.7%    23.2%    9871.7 10725.0										
Week Date      OD     OD YoY      DVD    DVD YoY       BD    BD YoY  BD Share  TBO2011 TBO2010										

Q4 total    2950.98   -11.4%    2150.46   -18.9%     800.52   17.4%    27.1%    3634.1  3836.3

51  12/24    482.11   -13.1%     368.59   -16.9%     113.52    2.2%    23.5%     205.6   303.6
50  12/17    369.89   -23.4%     280.58   -26.8%      89.31  -10.1%    24.1%     360.7   635.3
49  12/10    322.48   -14.5%     243.85   -18.6%      78.63    1.5%    24.4%     624.8   535.6
48  12/3     229.49   -23.3%     173.97   -27.5%      55.52   -6.2%    24.2%     282.0   496.0
47  11/26    388.67   -12.4%     300.39   -16.5%      88.28    5.0%    22.7%     194.5   185.3
46  11/19    166.84   -14.3%     127.57   -18.0%      39.27    0.5%    23.5%      41.6   359.0
45  11/12    183.17     2.5%     128.95   -12.0%      54.22   68.3%    29.6%     422.9   251.3
44  11/5     167.53   -16.8%     117.59   -22.8%      49.94    2.0%    29.8%     335.6   414.9
43  10/29    147.15    11.2%      96.66   -11.3%      50.49  115.6%    33.6%     204.5   108.7
42  10/22    156.94     9.5%      95.94   -17.1%      61.00  120.8%    38.9%     370.0    56.0
41  10/15    152.92    -2.4%     106.50   -14.1%      46.42   42.2%    30.4%     343.3   233.0
40  10/8     183.79     9.3%     109.87    -9.4%      73.92   57.7%    40.2%     248.6   257.6

Q3 DEG      1742.79    -4.0%    1320.93   -14.7%     421.86   58.0%    24.2%
Q3 total    1667.09    -4.9%    1298.39   -13.9%     368.70   49.9%    22.1%    1806.3  1609.5										

39  10/1     152.58   -14.3%     109.97   -20.4%      42.61    7.1%    27.9%     352.1   382.7
38  9/24     153.60     5.0%     108.69   -12.5%      44.91  103.6%    29.2%     169.3   112.5
37  9/17     164.69    14.0%     107.37   -14.2%      57.32  197.2%    34.8%     190.8   165.2
36  9/10     128.84     0.0%     102.29   -10.5%      26.55   82.9%    20.6%     189.3    60.3
35  9/3      119.04    -9.5%     100.87   -13.7%      18.17   23.5%    15.3%      65.6    95.1
34  8/27     109.34   -13.1%      91.74   -16.6%      17.60   11.5%    16.1%      12.6    45.3
33  8/20     124.53    -4.4%     101.11   -12.8%      23.42   63.3%    18.8%     100.8    81.2
32  8/13     122.13    -1.8%      98.44    -9.5%      23.69   51.8%    19.4%     118.0   143.9
31  8/6      139.66     1.4%     111.78    -3.6%      27.88   27.9%    20.0%     189.8   133.5
30  7/30     108.78   -18.3%      89.06   -20.2%      19.72   -8.7%    18.1%      56.8   177.2
29  7/23     120.50    -1.9%      97.25    -9.4%      23.25   49.9%    19.3%      88.3    72.7
28  7/16     118.09    -4.8%      94.88   -13.5%      23.21   61.7%    19.7%     267.8    94.7
27  7/9      105.31   -16.7%      84.94   -22.7%      20.37   22.9%    19.3%       5.1    45.2										
		
Q2 DEG      1831      -15.0%    1434      -18.8%     397       9.4%    21.7%
Q2 total    1791.55   -12.2%    1402.94   -16.7%     388.61    9.1%    21.7%    2314.8  2422.0

26  7/2      127.11   -12.3%      96.32   -21.6%      30.79   39.4%    24.2%     102.3   181.4
25  6/25     123.25    -7.7%      98.18   -12.8%      25.07   20.1%    20.3%     205.4    85.8
24  6/18     149.89   -11.2%     114.68   -17.7%      35.21   19.5%    23.5%     208.2   142.8
23  6/11     130.81   -13.6%     103.23   -18.6%      27.58   12.3%    21.1%     305.0   152.6
22  6/4      118.16   -34.1%      96.17   -32.8%      21.99  -39.1%    18.6%      15.8   386.8
21  5/28     113.83   -16.6%      91.37   -22.9%      22.46   24.9%    19.7%     154.4    87.9
20  5/21     111.98   -15.2%      91.84   -18.9%      20.14    7.2%    18.0%      99.8   185.7
19  5/14     111.02   -23.6%      90.00   -26.8%      21.02   -6.2%    18.9%     155.6   113.6
18  5/7      122.05   -25.2%      99.74   -29.5%      22.31   -7.7%    18.3%     141.5   106.1
17  4/30     106.99   -40.6%      86.94   -39.6%      20.05  -44.5%    18.7%       0.0   120.5
16  4/23     217.30    -8.3%     171.47    -0.3%      45.83  -29.4%    21.1%     187.5   841.3
15  4/16     184.50    48.7%     134.40    24.8%      50.10  205.3%    27.2%     314.8     8.1
14  4/9      174.66    21.6%     128.60     5.9%      46.06  107.5%    26.5%     424.5     9.4
										
Q1 DEG      2068      -20.0%    1661      -25.0%     407      10.0%    19.7%		
Q1 total    2020.45   -23.2%    1626.20   -28.4%     394.25    9.4%    19.5%    2116.5  2857.2

13  4/2      192.11   -36.0%     144.16   -44.6%      47.95   20.1%    25.0%     300.9   461.1
12  3/26     135.54   -49.8%     110.21   -50.9%      25.33  -44.1%    18.7%     218.0   335.6
11  3/19     138.72   -46.5%     112.58   -49.6%      26.14  -27.1%    18.8%     154.2   534.3
10  3/12     146.96   -24.4%     116.11   -30.8%      30.85   16.5%    21.0%     177.0   247.2
9   3/5      174.59    -7.2%     132.93   -15.4%      41.66   34.1%    23.9%     112.3   258.8
8   2/26     160.96     4.5%     130.35    -2.5%      30.61   50.7%    19.0%     258.0    74.9
7   2/19     172.68    -8.1%     143.99   -12.7%      28.69   25.0%    16.6%      86.2    80.1
6   2/12     172.00   -19.4%     145.34   -23.1%      26.66    8.9%    15.5%     224.0   211.0
5   2/5      158.26   -16.7%     131.08   -20.8%      27.18   11.1%    17.2%      23.0   114.6
4   1/29     151.21   -14.6%     122.05   -20.9%      29.16   27.6%    19.3%     201.2   151.6
3   1/22     131.62   -16.3%     107.98   -21.0%      23.64   14.8%    18.0%      60.7    61.0
2   1/15     135.49   -17.3%     108.51   -23.9%      26.98   27.0%    19.9%     143.3   137.8
1   1/8      150.31   -14.1%     120.91   -19.5%      29.40   18.6%    19.6%     157.7   189.2

OD = optical disc (DVD + Blu-ray)
YoY = year over year percentage change
TBO = total box office
BD = Blu-ray

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Malanthius

Dang! 2% growth for Christmas week?! Ouch! Thanks for the update Chip. Looks like Bruce was pretty close with his guess. Maybe others? I only remember him guessing around 100m. I'm thinking Bluray is going to end up flat to negitive next year. Unless it gets a few Avatar big releases. Catalog is pretty much done except for Indy. I think we are near the peak.

I guessed between $90-100 million, so I was a little low. In hindsight though, $113.72 million makes sense when you consider the sheer weight of the seasonal purchases right before Christmas. I calculated that last year just the seasonal component alone (plus the normal "base" sales) for the matching week was $85 million. If I had only trusted my math I would have guessed higher.

Actually the box office deficit this week wasn't that bad, down 32% ($205.6 vs. $303.6). The difference of that week 1 new release component is probably only worth about $10 million: $25 million last year vs. $15 million this year.

If that $15 new release factor estimate is subtracted out of this week's results, that you get $98.2 million of seasonal purchase power: a 15% increase over last year.

In any case, Blu-ray beat nearly everyone's expectations, but then again, everyone's expectations were rather pessimistic in light of past performance and box office strength. Everyone (including) myself just underestimated the power of the seasonal purchases.

That said, Blu-ray did well compared to last week and the weeks before, but it was still up just 2.2%, so I guess one can look at it in a glass half full or glass half empty perspective, depending on what the results were being compared to.

That 2.2% brought the YoY total from 19.9% to 18.7%. And Q4 YoY, at 17.4%, is now lower than the yearly average (18.7%).

So it does look like Blu-ray will finish with an HMM YoY of around 18%, like I had estimated several weeks ago (although last week was so bad, I figured it would end up closer to 17%).

Next week should be flat, but it could go either way by quite a bit. The week after Christmas is really hard to guess.

[bruceames]

It's worth mentioning that the 2010 HMM DVD estimate of $444.72 was revised downward to $368 million, a difference of over $76 million. HMM has been revising DVD downward all year, by an average of 10.2%. The 2010 DVD sell through 52 week total as originally published was $9.215 billion, and the revised total (with 1 week yet still to count) will be around $8.250 bililon. The odd thing is that the DEG 2010 DVD sell-though is around $8.9 billion, so it probably means it's a preclude to the DVD figures being revised downwards yet again.

[bruceames]

Since Q1, the quarter of the large box office disparity, box office power has been down only 1.4% overall, while Blu-ray has been up 21.3% during that time.

So without the box office excuse to draw upon, Blu-ray is around a 20%+ growth format.

In Q4 alone, box office is down 5.2%, while Blu-ray is up 17.4%.

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by bruceames

It's worth mentioning that the 2010 HMM DVD estimate of $444.72 was revised downward to $368 million, a difference of over $76 million.

.

I think you are misreading something there.

HMM is still reporting that DVD revenues for the new revised matching 2010 week was $443.55 M a revision of only a tiny $1.17 M.

The Blu-ray figures for that matching week were revised slightly upward from $109.27 M to $111.08 M which makes the Blu-ray YoY gain slightly smaller.




The new DVD week this year for 12/24/11 was $368.59 M.

The revised figures are :

12/25/2010 OD $554.63

12/24/2011 OD $482.11

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Since Q1, the quarter of the large box office disparity, box office power has been down only 1.4% overall, while Blu-ray has been up 21.3% during that time.

So without the box office excuse to draw upon, Blu-ray is around a 20%+ growth format.

In Q4 alone, box office is down 5.2%, while Blu-ray is up 17.4%.

4 of of the last 6 weeks in the high volume holiday sales period had significant box office strength disparities in favor of 2010.

That is also a factor as well.

The total yearly total box office disparity is still -853.3 million in favor of 2010 through 51/52 weeks down -7.96%.

We are both tracking Blu-ray revenues at about 19% up in the cumulative weekly YoY HMM tracking statistics.

[mikemorel]

Surge in Christmas video sales boosted by British talent brings 2011 to a more cheerful end

04 January 2012: Physical video entertainment sales in December were up 8.4% in value to £473.3 million on the same period last year, as highly anticipated hit titles were released in time for the gifting season, according to the British Video Association. Christmas is traditionally the most important time of year for video sales and in 2011 December represented 23% of the year’s total physical sales, the best performance since December 2003, when it represented 23.1%.

For the first time ever great British titles, featuring popular home-grown talent such as in Harry Potter, Inbetweeners, The King’s Speech, Pirates of the Caribbean, Paul and Peter Kay, dominated December disc sales and indeed the Top 10 chart for the whole of 2011, representing 80% of the year’s Top 10 unit sales.

Growth was seen in the value of Blu-ray, up 26.9% last month, while the nation’s favourite format, DVD, proved very much in demand throughout December, taking 87% share of physical disc sales worth £410.1 million, a rise in value of 6.0% on December 2010.

DVD’s volume sales also rose 6%, reaching over 43 million units sold in December, alongside a 31.1% increase in Blu-ray Disc over the same period, 5% of which were 3D Blu-ray Discs. During 2011 as a whole Blu-ray continued to increase its share of the physical disc market, as volume sales rose 18.4% year on year to 15.3 million units, producing a total value of £222.8 million, which is 13% of all physical disc sales.

In the growing paid-for digital video market IHS Screen Digest estimate[i] that downloads and digital rental transactions grew in value by 15% in 2011, with a 12% year on year increase in transactions to 71 million. The rise reflects a growing interest in tailored online services, particularly in video streaming and downloading, which now account for around 13% of the overall video market, worth some £292 million in 2011.

Although overall sales of discs fell 4.9% in value and 7.2% in volume year on year, DVD and Blu-ray Discs are still by far the most popular way to watch video entertainment, with consumers spending £1.75 billion on over 207 million units in 2011. When added to digital and rental transactions the total video entertainment sector is estimated to amount to more than £2.25 billion in consumer spend in the last 12 months.

Lavinia Carey, BVA Director General says: ‘As we predicted, titles released in December meant the industry finished the year on a high, despite the gloomy economic situation. It demonstrates the public’s huge appetite for video entertainment and quality British works in every genre. Like other sectors, the video industry faced a huge squeeze on consumer spending in 2011 and it has met the challenge head on by increasing the number of ways consumers can watch fantastic content and get the most for their money. Triple Play packs are a great example of this as they enable audiences to view a title in three different ways – DVD, Blu-ray, including true 3D and a digital copy – be it on different devices at the same time or at different times and places, according to the whole family’s taste.’

BVA Chairman, Charlie McAuley, observes, “In a challenging economic environment it’s really encouraging to see people continuing to spend their hard-earned cash on the best of our films, television, children’s, sport and music and other great video entertainment. It’s this sector of the audiovisual business that generates the lion’s share of value which is reinvested in future productions for audiences to enjoy”.

~Ends~
Notes to Editors
1. Including all digital and physical retail sales, plus physical rental transactions, consumers spent an estimated total of £2,251 billion in 2011, down 3.4%.
2. As reported in November 2011, OCC’s value data reports have been adjusted following an improvement in methodology. The revised 2010 total market value for video entertainment is £2.3 billion (including digital transactions) rather than £2.6 billion that was published in the 2011 BVA Yearbook in June