Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

[chipvideo]

Originally Posted by PSound

If a great catalog title like Jurassic Park can only manage 200k units into the large BD installed base, then it just demonstrates there is a chronic issue with BD sell through adoption.


It highlights what the studios have already observed. People already have OD collections where many titles have only been viewed once, and some none at all. It is hard to sell to that base when they clearly know they will never get $15-$20 worth of viewing value from disc purchases.


That issue is well understood, however hard PR folks try to downplay it on public discussion forums or biased trade magazines.

There is a overabundance of movies on disc in peoples homes. They dont have time to watch them. Its the same movie. Just uprgraded visual and audio. Most people still have small tv sets. They dont care about a bump in quality on a catalog title. The studios are just trying to double tripple dip you again. It aint workin. They are out of touch with reality. They dont want to admit to being wrong. Just look at the CEO of TWX when they purchased AOL. They never admit to doign wrong. Look how that turned out for him.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by PSound

If a great catalog title like Jurassic Park can only manage 200k units into the large BD installed base, then it just demonstrates there is a chronic issue with BD sell through adoption.


It highlights what the studios have already observed. People already have OD collections where many titles have only been viewed once, and some none at all. It is hard to sell to that base when they clearly know they will never get $15-$20 worth of viewing value from disc purchases.


That issue is well understood, however hard PR folks try to downplay it on public discussion forums or biased trade magazines.

Right, and because of this, BLu-ray will always be a new release format, and catalogs will probably never be much of a driver of sales like DVD was. The primary importance of catalogs is having a decent library of titles for consumers to choose from, especially those on the fence on buying into Blu-ray. Everyone has their favorite catalogs and the more that's been released, the more likely something's going to trigger a player purchase for a new owner.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by chipvideo

There is a overabundance of movies on disc in peoples homes. They dont have time to watch them. Its the same movie. Just uprgraded visual and audio. Most people still have small tv sets. They dont care about a bump in quality on a catalog title. The studios are just trying to double tripple dip you again. It aint workin. They are out of touch with reality. They dont want to admit to being wrong. Just look at the CEO of TWX when they purchased AOL. They never admit to doign wrong. Look how that turned out for him.

Saturation is what's driving sales down more than anything. I mean the deals and values you get are better than ever, but people are far more reluctant to buy a title they know will probably only get watched once. Of course, if it's a $3-5 DVD then it doesn't matter because that's close to a rental price (well in the old days anyway, it's cheaper now).

Speaking of which, cheap rentals are also causing consumers to buy less because at $1-2, they think they need to see a movie 10 times before it's worth a buy at $15 or so.

[chipvideo]

Its all about price and how many times you plan on watching it. For instance I just bought Overboard from amazon for less than $10. To me its a deal because I know I will watch it at least 1-2 times per year. I love that movie.

[PSound]

I think the vast devaluation of discs is also a major negative.

I remember that used DVDs dropped in value VERY quickly. I had a yard sale and was able to sell discs at $8-$12 very easily. The next year it was hard to get $4 for one.

One guy told me he could get older discs for new at Wal-mart for $5, so why buy used for any less than a couple of dollars.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by chipvideo

Its all about price and how many times you plan on watching it. For instance I just bought Overboard from amazon for less than $10. To me its a deal because I know I will watch it at least 1-2 times per year. I love that movie.

Overboard is a lot of fun. I've watched it a few times myself.

[PSound]

I am really curious to see what happens after 11/11.

Harry Potter will be huge, but then that is it for major tent pole releases. Will Black Friday be driven by catalog sales and bumps for titles released earlier in Q4?

[chipvideo]

I think Rise of the Planet of the Apes will do big.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by PSound

I am really curious to see what happens after 11/11.

Harry Potter will be huge, but then that is it for major tent pole releases. Will Black Friday be driven by catalog sales and bumps for titles released earlier in Q4?

I don't think we'll see the growth spikes in the second half of the quarter that we've seen so far. The last 6 weeks last year averaged $85 million, so I would expect more modest growth (unless DVD falls off a cliff, which is really not that unlikely). The Blu-ray top 20 title share has been over 60% the last few weeks, so if that continues then BLu-ray could follow through with the growth trends the rest of the quarter.

The unknown factor is catalog sales. DVD sales have a really long tail and most of their sales are catalog and other titles, while BLu-ray is just the opposite. It'll be interesting to see if people buy more Blu-ray catalog titles as gifts than DVD, since DVD more than ever is not the cool format and this Christmas could be the one where DVD sales across the board really take a plunge. Of course what matters to studios and retailers is Blu-ray + DVD sales, so we'll see what happens to OD sales the rest of the year. If it does well, then retailers will be less likely to continue to reduce shelf space for OD.

[PSound]

Originally Posted by bruceames

I don't think we'll see the growth spikes in the second half of the quarter that we've seen so far. The last 6 weeks last year averaged $85 million, so I would expect more modest growth (unless DVD falls off a cliff, which is really not that unlikely). The Blu-ray top 20 title share has been over 60% the last few weeks, so if that continues then BLu-ray could follow through with the growth trends the rest of the quarter.

The unknown factor is catalog sales. DVD sales have a really long tail and most of their sales are catalog and other titles, while BLu-ray is just the opposite. It'll be interesting to see if people buy more Blu-ray catalog titles as gifts than DVD, since DVD more than ever is not the cool format and this Christmas could be the one where DVD sales across the board really take a plunge. Of course what matters to studios and retailers is Blu-ray + DVD sales, so we'll see what happens to OD sales the rest of the year. If it does well, then retailers will be less likely to continue to reduce shelf space for OD.

I think the catalog (and 14+ day post release) performance for Blu-ray will be the story after mid November.

[bruceames]

Here is a comparison summary of the $25 million plus box office titles remaining in Q4. Note that the next 3 weeks are favorable for this year, but after that the well kinda runs dry for 2011, relatively speaking. The difference in box office those last 7 weeks is $924 million, which is quite a bit. There is one title though from Universal, Hop, with $108 million, that could get released in Q4 but as yet has no release date set. Info for 2011 upcoming releases obtained from the DVD release report $25 million+ inventory of upcoming titles.

Date	TBO'11	TBO'10	HMM'10
10/29	204.5	108.7	21.06
11/5	333.3	414.8	48.33
11/12	417.5	250.8	29.30
11/19	35.6	313.1	36.11
11/26	165.2	182.6	83.48
12/3	233.5	476.6	68.16
12/10	620.1	527.8	94.72
12/17	340.8	618.5	99.00
12/24	156.2	303.6	109.27
12/31	42.6	95.7	51.24

List of upcoming $25 million plus box office titles in 2011

BO	release	Title
191.0	11/1	Cars 2
83.6	11/1	Crazy, Stupid, Love
58.7	11/1	Water For Elephants
380.5	11/11	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
37.0	11/8	Change-Up
35.6	11/15	Larry Crowne
127.0	11/22	Super 8
38.2	11/22	Spy Kids: All the Time in the World
140.6	12/2	Smurfs
55.8	12/2	Friends With Benefits
37.1	11/29	30 Minutes or Less
254.5	12/6	Hangover Part II
166.2	12/6	The Help
100.1	12/6	Cowboys & Aliens
68.2	12/6	Mr. Popper's Penguins
31.1	12/6	Debt
175.6	12/13	Rise of the Planet of the Apes
165.2	12/13	Kung Fu Panda 2
64.4	12/20	Dolphin Tale
55.3	12/20	Midnight in Paris
36.5	12/20	Colombiana
42.6	12/27	Final Destination 5
.

2010 releases with over $25 million box office during the last 10 weeks of the year.

box office	release	Title
414.8	11/2	Toy Story 3
162.0	11/9	Grown Ups
31.5	11/9	Scott Pilgrim Vs. the World
31.2	11/9	Charlie St. Cloud
26.1	11/9	Ramona and Beezus
137.9	11/16	Christmas Carol, A
131.6	11/16	Last Airbender, The
43.6	11/16	Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore
102.6	11/23	Expendables, The
80.0	11/23	Eat Pray Love
76.4	11/30	Knight and Day
63.2	11/30	Sorcerer's Apprentice, The
36.5	11/30	Vampires Suck
300.5	12/4	Twilight Saga: Eclipse
289.4	12/7	Inception
238.4	12/7	Shrek Forever After
247.5	12/14	Despicable Me
118.5	12/14	Other Guys, The
77.2	12/14	A-Team, The
28.8	12/14	Nanny McPhee Returns
91.7	12/17	Town, The
54.8	12/17	Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole 
118.2	12/21	Salt
57.2	12/21	Easy A
52.2	12/21	Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
42.4	12/21	Step UP 3
33.6	12/21	Devil
60.1	12/28	Resident Evil: Afterlife
35.6	12/28	American, The

[PSound]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Here is a comparison summary of the $25 million plus box office titles remaining in Q4. Note that the next 3 weeks are favorable for this year, but after that the well kinda runs dry for 2011, relatively speaking. The difference in box office those last 7 weeks is $924 million, which is quite a bit. There is one title though from Universal, Hop, with $108 million, that could get released in Q4 but as yet has no release date set. Info for 2011 upcoming releases obtained from the DVD release report $25 million+ inventory of upcoming titles.

Date	TBO'11	TBO'10	HMM'10
10/29	204.5	108.7	21.06
11/5	333.3	414.8	48.33
11/12	417.5	250.8	29.30
11/19	35.6	313.1	36.11
11/26	165.2	182.6	83.48
12/3	233.5	476.6	68.16
12/10	620.1	527.8	94.72
12/17	340.8	618.5	99.00
12/24	156.2	303.6	109.27
12/31	42.6	95.7	51.24

List of upcoming $25 million plus box office titles in 2011

BO	release	Title
191.0	11/1	Cars 2
83.6	11/1	Crazy, Stupid, Love
58.7	11/1	Water For Elephants
380.5	11/11	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
37.0	11/8	Change-Up
35.6	11/15	Larry Crowne
127.0	11/22	Super 8
38.2	11/22	Spy Kids: All the Time in the World
140.6	12/2	Smurfs
55.8	12/2	Friends With Benefits
37.1	11/29	30 Minutes or Less
254.5	12/6	Hangover Part II
166.2	12/6	The Help
100.1	12/6	Cowboys & Aliens
68.2	12/6	Mr. Popper's Penguins
31.1	12/6	Debt
175.6	12/13	Rise of the Planet of the Apes
165.2	12/13	Kung Fu Panda 2
64.4	12/20	Dolphin Tale
55.3	12/20	Midnight in Paris
36.5	12/20	Colombiana
42.6	12/27	Final Destination 5
.

2010 releases with over $25 million box office during the last 10 weeks of the year.

box office	release	Title
414.8	11/2	Toy Story 3
162.0	11/9	Grown Ups
31.5	11/9	Scott Pilgrim Vs. the World
31.2	11/9	Charlie St. Cloud
26.1	11/9	Ramona and Beezus
137.9	11/16	Christmas Carol, A
131.6	11/16	Last Airbender, The
43.6	11/16	Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore
102.6	11/23	Expendables, The
80.0	11/23	Eat Pray Love
76.4	11/30	Knight and Day
63.2	11/30	Sorcerer's Apprentice, The
36.5	11/30	Vampires Suck
300.5	12/4	Twilight Saga: Eclipse
289.4	12/7	Inception
238.4	12/7	Shrek Forever After
247.5	12/14	Despicable Me
118.5	12/14	Other Guys, The
77.2	12/14	A-Team, The
28.8	12/14	Nanny McPhee Returns
91.7	12/17	Town, The
54.8	12/17	Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole 
118.2	12/21	Salt
57.2	12/21	Easy A
52.2	12/21	Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
42.4	12/21	Step UP 3
33.6	12/21	Devil
60.1	12/28	Resident Evil: Afterlife
35.6	12/28	American, The

That was really my point.

It seems like there were a lot of big releases late Q3 and early Q4 this year vs 2010.

The channel for the Q4 2011 post 11/11 is pretty weak compared to last year. If titles do not exhibit a long tail, then the end of Q4 is going to have modest growth, likely much closer to H1 than late Q3 and early Q4.


Just look at the box office of early December last year. That is a ton of $200+ million box office releases:

300.5 12/4 Twilight Saga: Eclipse
289.4 12/7 Inception
238.4 12/7 Shrek Forever After
247.5 12/14 Despicable Me

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by PSound

That was really my point.

It seems like there were a lot of big releases late Q3 and early Q4 this year vs 2010.

The channel for the Q4 2011 post 11/11 is pretty weak compared to last year. If titles do not exhibit a long tail, then the end of Q4 is going to have modest growth, likely much closer to H1 than late Q3 and early Q4.


Just look at the box office of early December last year. That is a ton of $200+ million box office releases:

300.5 12/4 Twilight Saga: Eclipse
289.4 12/7 Inception
238.4 12/7 Shrek Forever After
247.5 12/14 Despicable Me

Originally Posted by PSound

I think the catalog (and 14+ day post release) performance for Blu-ray will be the story after mid November.

Yeah, growth-wise, Blu-ray has a hill to climb in December as 2010 was really stacked. It will have to depend a lot on catalog and 14+ day post release as you say, as well as heavy attrition from DVD and lots of good price promotions.

Value-wise, Blu-ray is a better buy than ever. New releases are packed with both DVD, Blu-ray and digital copy for nearly the same price as the single disc Blu-ray was a year or two ago, and now there's lots of 3D titles with all of the above included as well for only a $5 mark up. And the bargain bin is growing as well, not to mention a record number of catalog titles released this year, so should help get more titles under the Christmas tree.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by PSound

That was really my point.

It seems like there were a lot of big releases late Q3 and early Q4 this year vs 2010.

The channel for the Q4 2011 post 11/11 is pretty weak compared to last year. If titles do not exhibit a long tail, then the end of Q4 is going to have modest growth, likely much closer to H1 than late Q3 and early Q4.

You were right about that. The difference in YoY box office the last seven weeks, from early September, is $596 million. And when you add the next three weeks it climbs to $777 million. At that point 2011 should really be close to 2010 box office levels, perhaps even exceeding it by a few million. But then it loses all the gains and more the last 7 weeks. I agree that growth can only be more modest.

[PSound]

Originally Posted by bruceames

You were right about that. The difference in YoY box office the last seven weeks, from early September, is $596 million. And when you add the next three weeks it climbs to $777 million. At that point 2011 should really be close to 2010 box office levels, perhaps even exceeding it by a few million. But then it loses all the gains and more the last 7 weeks. I agree that growth can only be more modest.

Yes.

And I agree with your other post.

Blu-ray growth post 11/11 is going to depend deeply on longer tail new release performance and Blu-ray cannibalization of DVD.

I am less confident of the cannibalization rate for the rest of Q4 after the horrendous performance of POTC with the exclusive BD window. I do expect the cannibalization to continue and for BD's growth to be fueled by the continued decline of DVD, but the POTC 4 numbers indicates to me that consumers are going to drive that trend at their own pace.

At this point, that pace means that Blu-ray will continually be growing into an overall declining market.


I mentioned this before, but as Blu-ray hits the >50% market share point then you can judge BD on it's ability to grow the OD market.