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Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

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Old 01-03-2012, 09:27 PM   #871
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"If next week doesn't break $90 million (and there's a good chance of that happening), then I can't see how you could say it's been a good year for Blu-ray"

There's no way Blu-ray did $90M. Box office power that week was about half what it was last year. Plus affecting the rest of the chart will be the fact that all of December is down 30%. When you look at the unit sales any week, it's obvious that releases matter. They don't matter AS much in December as they do in say September, but they definitely matter- especially when the disparity is 30-50%.
Last year the box office power was $303 million and Blu-ray did $109 million from that + the seasonal sales. Considering $109 is a serious amount of revenue for only $303 million in box office, it's safe to say that the very week before Christmas is the week where new releases matter the least of out any other week in the year. The seasonal sales component was very large.

This year the box office for the week before Christmas is $205 million, not a whole lot less, and you're saying $90 million isn't doable? I think you have to give a little more credit to the seasonal sales power than that, for that particular week. I'm guessing between $90 and $100 million myself, and would be less surprised to see over $100 million than under $90 million.

Last edited by bruceames; 01-03-2012 at 09:31 PM.
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Old 01-03-2012, 10:06 PM   #872
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To illustrate how large the seasonal component is, here are the weeks where Blu-ray last year had over $300 million BO power

Code:
Date  boxoffice BDrevenue
24-Dec	303.6	109.2
17-Dec	635.3	99.3
10-Dec	535.6	77.5
4/23	841.3	64.9
3-Dec	496.0	59.2
5-Nov	414.9	49.0
3/26	335.6	45.3
4/2	461.1	39.9
1-Oct	382.7	39.8
19-Nov	359.0	39.1
6/4	386.8	36.1
3/19	534.3	35.9
1) The top 3 weeks were the 3 weeks before Christmas

2) The top week had less than 1/2 the BO power as the second best week, just because it was the week before Christmas.

3) most of the weeks in that list were from Q4

The top week, which featured "Salt", probably would have done less than $40 million, were it in a non-seasonal week. But let's give it $40 to be generous anyway. Probably 1/2 of those sales are base (floor) sales, so that leaves about $20-25 million in new release power.

So, that means of that $109 million last year, probably about $85 million or so was seasonal. And if Blu-ray is, say, a 20% growth format under parity conditions, then $85 million x 1.2 = $102 in just seasonal sales alone.

But is Blu-ray really a 20% growth format at this point? Or is it less than that?
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Old 01-03-2012, 10:21 PM   #873
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Year of the turnaround indeed.
I'm still trying to figure that one one out. How do you go from good to bad and call it a turnaround?

1. The BO sees a $400M drop compared to 2010 - average ticket prices are the highest ever BTW
2. Theater Admissions drops to the same level as 1995
3. The HVM will once again show a substantial drop in revenue
4. BD has it's lowest growth rate since winning the format war.
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Old 01-03-2012, 10:33 PM   #874
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The pessimists got it right. Funny how that works out.

It's so funny. I see Mike being critisized for "only" posting the down week charts. It's funny because it's usually Lee or Mike that get to them because I guess someone was too busy or something?

Yes I expect more spin as well.
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Old 01-03-2012, 10:50 PM   #875
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I'm still trying to figure that one one out. How do you go from good to bad and call it a turnaround?

1. The BO sees a $400M drop compared to 2010 - average ticket prices are the highest ever BTW
2. Theater Admissions drops to the same level as 1995
3. The HVM will once again show a substantial drop in revenue
4. BD has it's lowest growth rate since winning the format war.
I cannot think of a worse job than trying to convince a group of people who know the numbers that everything is fine and dandy. It is a losing proposition as the numbers always catch up to the PR lies.

I hope Cinram is paying the folks at HMM very well.
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Old 01-03-2012, 10:54 PM   #876
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I cannot think of a worse job than trying to convince a group of people who know the numbers that everything is fine and dandy. It is a losing proposition as the numbers always catch up to the PR lies.

I hope Cinram is paying the folks at HMM very well.
I couldn't do it. I hate liars. Everything about a liar makes me want to punch them in the face.
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Old 01-04-2012, 02:36 AM   #877
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Last year the box office power was $303 million and Blu-ray did $109 million from that + the seasonal sales.
Oh, I wasn't reading very clearly when I first logged on the forums- I must have been glancing at a wrong week.

Quote:
This year the box office for the week before Christmas is $205 million, not a whole lot less, and you're saying $90 million isn't doable? I think you have to give a little more credit to the seasonal sales power than that, for that particular week. I'm guessing between $90 and $100 million myself, and would be less surprised to see over $100 million than under $90 million.
I do retract my hasty prediction of <$90M, as it was based on a comprehension error somewhere on my end as I was glancing charts.

I think I'm going to go with 100M. Less than 2010, but only because the box office power deficit has been accumulating since December began. I did some extrapolating based on The Number DVD units and HMM's marketshares and indexes and it would appear that 2011's top 20 will come up $20-25M short compared to last year, mainly due to no Inception, Twilight or Despicable Me in mid-December.
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Old 01-04-2012, 02:53 AM   #878
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So, that means of that $109 million last year, probably about $85 million or so was seasonal. And if Blu-ray is, say, a 20% growth format under parity conditions, then $85 million x 1.2 = $102 in just seasonal sales alone.

But is Blu-ray really a 20% growth format at this point? Or is it less than that?
Hard to say, because the drop has been so quick. Blu-ray growth went from 68% in 2010 to 20% in 2011, a 48% drop, on average. That is 4% per month decline in growth rate, per month. It is, to say the least, a highly fluid situation.

Of course we will have to see if January brings new blood into the format. I expect some newcomers, but not all that many.

After all, if you have to wait until blu-ray players drop to $60 to jump into blu-ray, you probably won't be buying many titles.
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Old 01-04-2012, 06:52 AM   #879
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The latest PR strategy is to try and diss Digital when the facts of OD are presented.
PS digital sales have not been doing well, that is fact. There is no denying that. I am hoping that with a unified UV coming (hopefully at CES) that will change . Digital and Optical are together the Home Video Pie and any way you slice it (pun) that pie is looking (and tasting) sour for 2011 right now. I'm looking forward to seeing all the final 2011 numbers for the entire industry. Hoping they are released soon!

I have been lambasted many times over at HTF as being called a Shill and many other names for my interest and excitement in Ultraviolet . I've even been called a UV insider by many over there which I think is hilarious since most of my knowledge on the subject was picked up doing simple googling.

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Old 01-04-2012, 08:21 AM   #880
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Hard to say, because the drop has been so quick. Blu-ray growth went from 68% in 2010 to 20% in 2011, a 48% drop, on average. That is 4% per month decline in growth rate, per month. It is, to say the least, a highly fluid situation.

Of course we will have to see if January brings new blood into the format. I expect some newcomers, but not all that many.

After all, if you have to wait until blu-ray players drop to $60 to jump into blu-ray, you probably won't be buying many titles.
Keep in mind, we are now in (wait till) Q5 Mode. January should see see increases just because of people with gift cards.
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Old 01-04-2012, 10:27 AM   #881
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PS digital sales have not been doing well, that is fact. There is no denying that. I am hoping that with a unified UV coming (hopefully at CES) that will change . Digital and Optical are together the Home Video Pie and any way you slice it (pun) that pie is looking (and tasting) sour for 2011 right now. I'm looking forward to seeing all the final 2011 numbers for the entire industry. Hoping they are released soon!

I have been lambasted many times over at HTF as being called a Shill and many other names for my interest and excitement in Ultraviolet . I've even been called a UV insider by many over there which I think is hilarious since most of my knowledge on the subject was picked up doing simple googling.
Digital sell through is distinctly different than Blu-ray. There is still not a way to make an EST purchase of a cross studio supported format. Of course sales are going to be weak.


But to bring up digital sales as a way to deflect talking about BD sales is simply a PR stunt to avoid the reality of the numbers.

I totally understand why someone would do the technique in light of BD sales numbers. If I was tasked with making BD sales look good, I would be trying to use anything I could to hide from the numbers... and that is exactly what the PR folks are doing.
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Old 01-04-2012, 10:42 AM   #882
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Digital sell through is distinctly different than Blu-ray. There is still not a way to make an EST purchase of a cross studio supported format. Of course sales are going to be weak.
Studios support iTunes.

In fact iTunes has been getting movies EARLY from the studios.

iTunes is linked to 100M+ Apple devices and 100M+ credit cards.

You can't sweep a number like 100M under the rug. Sales are weak because demand is weak.

iPad sales are booming. Why aren't digital movie sales following in accord?

It's seem awfully suspicious to underscore iTunes and Apple as if they don't matter when the truth is they dominate the media and electronics industry.

Seems to me the only reason why one wouldn't treat iTunes as the behemoth it is is to manufacture an excuse for poor to-date EST sales.

Digital music sales exploded. Digital e-books sales exploded. But yet digital movie sales have not. Why?

Last edited by bombsnizzle; 01-04-2012 at 10:46 AM.
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Old 01-04-2012, 11:07 AM   #883
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But to bring up digital sales as a way to deflect talking about BD sales is simply a PR stunt to avoid the reality of the numbers.

I totally understand why someone would do the technique in light of BD sales numbers. If I was tasked with making BD sales look good, I would be trying to use anything I could to hide from the numbers... and that is exactly what the PR folks are doing.
Or digital sales are brought up because they are poor on their own.

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The DEG has been revising that 2010 $683 million EST figure throughout this year. The original DEG Q3 2010 report pegged EST at $432 million up until that point.

The new figures are as follows:

http://www.degonline.org/pressreleas...011_REPORT.pdf

Q1-Q3 2010 - $380.43 million (revised)
Q1-Q3 2011 - $406.22 million

It looks rather doubtful that EST will even reach $683 million by the end of this year.
In August we were told iTunes has a 65.8% share for movie sales. Vudu has 5.4%.

Even though these %s are from the 1st half of 2011, assuming they held true for q3 2011 too, and then using them with the $406.22M number above for Q1-Q3 2011, we see:

iTunes brought in $267.29M
Vudu brought in $21.94M

iTunes and Vudu combined are on 120M+ devices MINIMUM.

And they made a combined ~$289.23M for the first half of 2011. There is no way to spin that as good.

I know PSound likes to talk up Vudu as the second coming...but they made $21M in digital sales for 3/4 of 2011. That is a really small number. It's amazing to me to see Vudu talked about with such praise but yet iTunes gets treated as if it doesn't exist, even though it has 12x the amount of sales as Vudu. The only reason I can see not paying attention to iTunes is that it is so big, it should have more digital sales. The fact that it doesn't makes digital look bad, so therefore iTunes gets ignored by those who want to make EST look "amazing" with respect to sales.

Last edited by bombsnizzle; 01-04-2012 at 11:23 AM.
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Old 01-04-2012, 02:14 PM   #884
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Or digital sales are brought up because they are poor on their own.


In August we were told iTunes has a 65.8% share for movie sales. Vudu has 5.4%.

Even though these %s are from the 1st half of 2011, assuming they held true for q3 2011 too, and then using them with the $406.22M number above for Q1-Q3 2011, we see:

iTunes brought in $267.29M
Vudu brought in $21.94M

iTunes and Vudu combined are on 120M+ devices MINIMUM.

And they made a combined ~$289.23M for the first half of 2011. There is no way to spin that as good.

I know PSound likes to talk up Vudu as the second coming...but they made $21M in digital sales for 3/4 of 2011. That is a really small number. It's amazing to me to see Vudu talked about with such praise but yet iTunes gets treated as if it doesn't exist, even though it has 12x the amount of sales as Vudu. The only reason I can see not paying attention to iTunes is that it is so big, it should have more digital sales. The fact that it doesn't makes digital look bad, so therefore iTunes gets ignored by those who want to make EST look "amazing" with respect to sales.
It may also be that Vudu offers movies in 1080P resolution. Does iTunes even offer movies in 1080i HD resolution or just 720P?
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Old 01-04-2012, 03:08 PM   #885
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It may also be that Vudu offers movies in 1080P resolution. Does iTunes even offer movies in 1080i HD resolution or just 720P?
Vudu is distinct in that they have a fine offering and are exhibiting a solid growth trajectory.

EST is still in its infancy, and it would be foolish to ignore growth trends from an offering that is best of breed in quality and often times in pricing.
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