Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

[bruceames]

Updated thru week ending 12/17/11
Table of Blu-ray sales (HMM and DEG)
numbers are in (revenue) millions.

2011 total  7947.96   -13.6%    6109.40   -20.3%    1838.56   19.9%    23.1%    9666.1 10421.4										
Week Date      OD     OD YoY      DVD    DVD YoY       BD    BD YoY  BD Share  TBO2011 TBO2010										

Q4 total    2468.87   -11.1%    1781.87   -19.3%     687.00   20.3%    27.8%    3428.5  3532.7

50  12/17    369.89   -23.4%     280.58   -26.8%      89.31  -10.1%    24.1%     360.7   635.3
49  12/10    322.48   -14.5%     243.85   -18.6%      78.63    1.5%    24.4%     624.8   535.6
48  12/3     229.49   -23.3%     173.97   -27.5%      55.52   -6.2%    24.2%     282.0   496.0
47  11/26    388.67   -12.4%     300.39   -16.5%      88.28    5.0%    22.7%     194.5   185.3
46  11/19    166.84   -14.3%     127.57   -18.0%      39.27    0.5%    23.5%      41.6   359.0
45  11/12    183.17     2.5%     128.95   -12.0%      54.22   68.3%    29.6%     422.9   251.3
44  11/5     167.53   -16.8%     117.59   -22.8%      49.94    2.0%    29.8%     335.6   414.9
43  10/29    147.15    11.2%      96.66   -11.3%      50.49  115.6%    33.6%     204.5   108.7
42  10/22    156.94     9.5%      95.94   -17.1%      61.00  120.8%    38.9%     370.0    56.0
41  10/15    152.92    -2.4%     106.50   -14.1%      46.42   42.2%    30.4%     343.3   233.0
40  10/8     183.79     9.3%     109.87    -9.4%      73.92   57.7%    40.2%     248.6   257.6

Q3 DEG      1742.79    -4.0%    1320.93   -14.7%     421.86   58.0%    24.2%
Q3 total    1667.09    -4.9%    1298.39   -13.9%     368.70   49.9%    22.1%    1806.3  1609.5										

39  10/1     152.58   -14.3%     109.97   -20.4%      42.61    7.1%    27.9%     352.1   382.7
38  9/24     153.60     5.0%     108.69   -12.5%      44.91  103.6%    29.2%     169.3   112.5
37  9/17     164.69    14.0%     107.37   -14.2%      57.32  197.2%    34.8%     190.8   165.2
36  9/10     128.84     0.0%     102.29   -10.5%      26.55   82.9%    20.6%     189.3    60.3
35  9/3      119.04    -9.5%     100.87   -13.7%      18.17   23.5%    15.3%      65.6    95.1
34  8/27     109.34   -13.1%      91.74   -16.6%      17.60   11.5%    16.1%      12.6    45.3
33  8/20     124.53    -4.4%     101.11   -12.8%      23.42   63.3%    18.8%     100.8    81.2
32  8/13     122.13    -1.8%      98.44    -9.5%      23.69   51.8%    19.4%     118.0   143.9
31  8/6      139.66     1.4%     111.78    -3.6%      27.88   27.9%    20.0%     189.8   133.5
30  7/30     108.78   -18.3%      89.06   -20.2%      19.72   -8.7%    18.1%      56.8   177.2
29  7/23     120.50    -1.9%      97.25    -9.4%      23.25   49.9%    19.3%      88.3    72.7
28  7/16     118.09    -4.8%      94.88   -13.5%      23.21   61.7%    19.7%     267.8    94.7
27  7/9      105.31   -16.7%      84.94   -22.7%      20.37   22.9%    19.3%       5.1    45.2										
		
Q2 DEG      1831      -15.0%    1434      -18.8%     397       9.4%    21.7%
Q2 total    1791.55   -12.2%    1402.94   -16.7%     388.61    9.1%    21.7%    2314.8  2422.0

26  7/2      127.11   -12.3%      96.32   -21.6%      30.79   39.4%    24.2%     102.3   181.4
25  6/25     123.25    -7.7%      98.18   -12.8%      25.07   20.1%    20.3%     205.4    85.8
24  6/18     149.89   -11.2%     114.68   -17.7%      35.21   19.5%    23.5%     208.2   142.8
23  6/11     130.81   -13.6%     103.23   -18.6%      27.58   12.3%    21.1%     305.0   152.6
22  6/4      118.16   -34.1%      96.17   -32.8%      21.99  -39.1%    18.6%      15.8   386.8
21  5/28     113.83   -16.6%      91.37   -22.9%      22.46   24.9%    19.7%     154.4    87.9
20  5/21     111.98   -15.2%      91.84   -18.9%      20.14    7.2%    18.0%      99.8   185.7
19  5/14     111.02   -23.6%      90.00   -26.8%      21.02   -6.2%    18.9%     155.6   113.6
18  5/7      122.05   -25.2%      99.74   -29.5%      22.31   -7.7%    18.3%     141.5   106.1
17  4/30     106.99   -40.6%      86.94   -39.6%      20.05  -44.5%    18.7%       0.0   120.5
16  4/23     217.30    -8.3%     171.47    -0.3%      45.83  -29.4%    21.1%     187.5   841.3
15  4/16     184.50    48.7%     134.40    24.8%      50.10  205.3%    27.2%     314.8     8.1
14  4/9      174.66    21.6%     128.60     5.9%      46.06  107.5%    26.5%     424.5     9.4
										
Q1 DEG      2068      -20.0%    1661      -25.0%     407      10.0%    19.7%		
Q1 total    2020.45   -23.2%    1626.20   -28.4%     394.25    9.4%    19.5%    2116.5  2857.2

13  4/2      192.11   -36.0%     144.16   -44.6%      47.95   20.1%    25.0%     300.9   461.1
12  3/26     135.54   -49.8%     110.21   -50.9%      25.33  -44.1%    18.7%     218.0   335.6
11  3/19     138.72   -46.5%     112.58   -49.6%      26.14  -27.1%    18.8%     154.2   534.3
10  3/12     146.96   -24.4%     116.11   -30.8%      30.85   16.5%    21.0%     177.0   247.2
9   3/5      174.59    -7.2%     132.93   -15.4%      41.66   34.1%    23.9%     112.3   258.8
8   2/26     160.96     4.5%     130.35    -2.5%      30.61   50.7%    19.0%     258.0    74.9
7   2/19     172.68    -8.1%     143.99   -12.7%      28.69   25.0%    16.6%      86.2    80.1
6   2/12     172.00   -19.4%     145.34   -23.1%      26.66    8.9%    15.5%     224.0   211.0
5   2/5      158.26   -16.7%     131.08   -20.8%      27.18   11.1%    17.2%      23.0   114.6
4   1/29     151.21   -14.6%     122.05   -20.9%      29.16   27.6%    19.3%     201.2   151.6
3   1/22     131.62   -16.3%     107.98   -21.0%      23.64   14.8%    18.0%      60.7    61.0
2   1/15     135.49   -17.3%     108.51   -23.9%      26.98   27.0%    19.9%     143.3   137.8
1   1/8      150.31   -14.1%     120.91   -19.5%      29.40   18.6%    19.6%     157.7   189.2

OD = optical disc (DVD + Blu-ray)
YoY = year over year percentage change
TBO = total box office
BD = Blu-ray

[PSound]

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

Year of the turnaround indeed.

[PSound]

I cannot believe the blatant lies that some people post.

Do they really think that people will not notice when they predict revenue for a week at $110 - $120 million, and then stated that "almost $90 M" is better than they expected? Flat out lies to support spinning an obvious disappointment into something else.

Be honest. Don't be a liar. Simply state it did not do as well as you expected (to the tune of $20 - $30 million). The box office lead-in was known when those predictions were made. No spin can make up for lying after the fact about expectations.

[GizmoDVD]

Ouch. Looks like the usual suspects were way off.

[bruceames]

I'd prefer to keep the HDD Smackdown stuff out of this thread as much as possible, particularly when accusations of lying are branded on them.

$89 million cannot be called a good week no matter how you slice it. Certainly it's not better than one would have expected.

Last year HMM had 3 $90 million weeks, and we have yet to see even one this year. The year of the turnaround indeed, but in the wrong direction.

[PSound]

Originally Posted by bruceames

I'd prefer to keep the HDD Smackdown goings on, out of this thread, particularly when accusations of lying are branded on them.

OK.

Although it is hard to call something an "accusation" when the proverbial shoe fits:

lie
1.
a false statement made with deliberate intent to deceive; an intentional untruth; a falsehood.
2.
something intended or serving to convey a false impression; imposture: His flashy car was a lie that deceived no one.
3.
an inaccurate or false statement.

Done with that...

[bruceames]

With this last week, box office in 2010 has finally caught up and we have achieved near parity.

With box office down only 2.9% from last year, Blu-ray is up 20.3% for the quarter.

So it looks like that with release strength variance taken out of the equation, Blu-ray is growing 20% per year.

When the next two weeks come in, I'll do a YoY comparion of the last 3 quarters as they as a whole have near BO parity as well.

[PSound]

Originally Posted by bruceames

With this last week, box office in 2010 has finally caught up and we have achieved near parity.

With box office down only 2.9% from last year, Blu-ray is up 20.3% for the quarter.

So it looks like that with release strength variance taken out of the equation, Blu-ray is growing 20% per year.

When the next two weeks come in, I'll do a YoY comparion of the last 3 quarters as they as a whole have near BO parity as well.

H1 will tell much next year.

Catalog releases and strength were up big in 2011. I am not sure they can grow as quickly in 2012. Without the catalog bump, I don't think we see that 20% BD growth.

[PSound]

BTW... My guess is that 2012 will be more like 2010 in that Q4 will have higher percentage growth than Q3.

I am not sure if that extra Q4 strength will be enough to duplicate 20% YoY in 2012 without some shifts in windowing to favor BD.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by PSound

H1 will tell much next year.

Catalog releases and strength were up big in 2011. I am not sure they can grow as quickly in 2012. Without the catalog bump, I don't think we see that 20% BD growth.

I don't think so either. Even if we did, I think we'll continue to see a continued erosion of the YoY growth rate. So if it's 20% this year with release parity, then it'll be less next year. It's the nature of the dying OD beast. And as for market share, Blu-ray can continue to cannibalize DVD all that the studios want it to, but it doesn't mean much in a declining market. To use a famous quote:

" And you know the surest way to go broke? Keep getting an increasing share of a shrinking market. Down the tubes. Slow but sure. You know, at one time there must've been dozens of companies making buggy whips. And I'll bet the last company around was the one that made the best god damn buggy whip you ever saw."

[mikemorel]

Looks like blu-ray has shown an overall decline in YoY sales since week ending 11/19.

[PSound]

I wonder if when Blu-ray comes in at ~ $78 million for week ending 12/24 if that will be considered phenomenally exceeding expectations(*)

(*) Previously published expectations are not to be interpreted as actual expectations, as expectations may vary depending on actual results.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by mikemorel

Looks like blu-ray has shown an overall decline in YoY sales since week ending 11/19.

Yep, since crunch time basically. I've read that releases don't matter that much this time of year because most of the sales are seasonal.

So it's pretty obvious that BD has a "seasonal" disappointment. Last year Blu-ray did $109 million the week before xmas, with only $303 million in box office power ("Salt" was the only favorable genre title that week).

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by PSound

I wonder if when Blu-ray comes in at ~ $78 million for week ending 12/24 if that will be considered phenomenally exceeding expectations(*)

(*) Previously published expectations are not to be interpreted as actual expectations, as expectations may vary depending on actual results.

I can't see how that could possible be considering as exceeding expections. Anything less that $110 million will be a massive disappointment, but I don't think it will exceed $100 million at this point.

[PSound]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Yep, since crunch time basically. I've read that releases don't matter that much this time of year because most of the sales are seasonal.

So it's pretty obvious that BD has a "seasonal" disappointment. Last year Blu-ray did $109 million the week before xmas, with only $303 million in box office power ("Salt" was the only favorable genre title that week).

The PR spin has been consistent in that things always look better in the future (see list of 'PR flavor of the week' below), and then when the numbers don't meet expectations of the PR folks, then the list of excuses (see list of PR 'clean-up in aisle Blu' below) comes out to explain why the current disappointing numbers are still further signs that all is OK and the best is yet to come.


PR Flavor of the week (or, why things will look better in coming weeks)

• Price Stability in BD is now set and Q4 will show that(AKA H1 2011 PR Flavor)
• Units Matter (AKA - Holy Shit! Prices Declined again in Q4 2011)
• Box Office Matters (AKA Q1 PR Flavor or 'OMG AVATAR MESSED IT ALL UP - WAH!!)
• Box Office Doesn't Matter and Seasonality Will Win The Day (AKA Early Q4 Realization that BD had blown it's BD Wad in Late Q3 / Early Q4)
• Box Office Matters Again (Late Q4 PR Spin Looking Ahead to.... It Doesn't Matter It Will Just Get Better - Trust Me)

Clean-up on Aisle Blu List

• See PR Flavor of the week List Above

It has been a long year with plenty of spin so I am sure I may have missed something. Please feel free to add to the list.