Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Kosty

Again I wish it was that simple. Both DVD and Blu-ray and PS3 units sold often went to homes that already had one device. The DEG statistic should have an offset in there to account for multiple devices in a household so you just cannot subtract out PS3s from Blu-ray players.

Isn't the 33.5 million the total number of BD players + PS3s sold?

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Isn't the 33.5 million the total number of BD players + PS3s sold?

It should be the number of unique households that have one or more Blu-ray players or PS3 players in the home.

Some homes would have more than one Blu-ray player or more than one PS3 or a Blu-ray player and a PS3 or any combination of the above.

I think Lee had stated in the past that the DEG statistics did or did not have that offset. One way to properly find that number would to add the PS3s and Blu-ray sales together and through survey find the number of households that had more than one. Or to survey households and ask if they had one or more Blu-ray players or a PS3.

IIRC Lee said once he thought the DEG had not done that offset and thus was inflating the number of Blu-ray households in one or more report. Not sure if that applied to the 33 M number. I thought that was properly offset.

Plus households that only had a PS3 would not use it to play Blu-ray movies as much as a household that bought a dedicated Blu-ray player and people that bought a Blu-ray recently would not use it as much on average as a earlier Blu-ray owner who bought into Blu-ray earlier and would be more involved and active than a later adopter.

[Kosty]

I'm pretty sure the BDA and DEG will give updated figures for Blu-ray players sold and Blu-ray adoption this month.

[Lee Stewart]

Originally Posted by Kosty

It should be the number of unique households that have one or more Blu-ray players or PS3 players in the home.

Some homes would have more than one Blu-ray player or more than one PS3 or a Blu-ray player and a PS3 or any combination of the above.

I think Lee had stated in the past that the DEG statistics did or did not have that offset. One way to properly find that number would to add the PS3s and Blu-ray sales together and through survey find the number of households that had more than one. Or to survey households and ask if they had one or more Blu-ray players or a PS3.

IIRC Lee said once he thought the DEG had not done that offset and thus was inflating the number of Blu-ray households in one or more report. Not sure if that applied to the 33 M number. I thought that was properly offset.

Plus households that only had a PS3 would not use it to play Blu-ray movies as much as a household that bought a dedicated Blu-ray player and people that bought a Blu-ray recently would not use it as much on average as a earlier Blu-ray owner who bought into Blu-ray earlier and would be more involved and active than a later adopter.

The DEG counts the sale of 1 BD playback device (SAL, HTiB or PS3) as 1 BD playback device owning household. They always have.

From the 2010 EOY DEG report

U.S. BLU-RAY DISC PLAYER SALES TOP 28.5 MILLION UNITS
Blu-ray Disc playback devices – including set-top box and game consoles – sold through more than 28.5 million units since launch. Some six million devices sold in the fourth quarter alone, bringing total units sold to 11.25 million in calendar 2010, according to numbers compiled by the DEG with input from retail tracking sources.

DVD U.S. HOUSEHOLDS TOPS 90 MILLION
According to figures compiled by the DEG based on data from Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) retailers and manufacturers, an estimated 20.2 million DVD players were sold to U.S. consumers in 2010. Since launch in spring 1997, some 297 million DVD players, including set-top and portable DVD players, Home-Theater-in-a-Box systems, TV/DVD and DVD/VCR combination players, have sold to consumers, bringing the number of DVD households to approximately 90 million (adjusting for households with more than one player). The DEG estimates that 70 percent of DVD owners have more than one player.

From the Q1 2011 DEG Report:

Additionally, Blu-ray Disc hardware increased, with sales (inclusive of BD set-tops, PS3s and HTiBs) up more than 13 percent over first quarter 2010. This brings total household penetration of all Blu-ray compatible devices to nearly 30 million U.S. homes.

[bruceames]

From reading the past year-end DEG reports, they clearly consider one unit sold = one household.

2006: 750k (includes HD DVD players)
2007: 4.5 million (includes HD DVD players)
2008: 9.65 million
2009: 17.3 million
2010: 28.5 million
Q3 2011: 33.5 million

In the 2009 year-end report it says:

"...Blu-ray hardware now in 17 million homes"

AND

"Sales of Blu-ray Disc playback devices - including set-top box and game consoles - sold through 17.3 million units since launch".

So they are one and the same according to DEG like Lee says.

[bruceames]

According to this site, here are the PS3 sales in the US

2006: 688k
2007: 2.558 million
2008: 3.545 million
2009: 4.335 million

It's incomplete for 2010 though...

[Kosty]

I understand the points you guys are making.

I'll try to get the best information I can on the subject at CES 2012 and I'll also ping some of my industry contacts to see if I can get any data before then or after. The raw shipped or sold numbers of Blu-ray players without the multiple players in home offset should be easier to get. The NPD group will also have its extensive household survey in the 1Q that gives more data as well.

[GizmoDVD]

Originally Posted by Kosty

I understand the points you guys are making.

I'll try to get the best information I can on the subject at CES 2012 and I'll also ping some of my industry contacts to see if I can get any data before then or after. The raw shipped or sold numbers of Blu-ray players without the multiple players in home offset should be easier to get. The NPD group will also have its extensive household survey in the 1Q that gives more data as well.

CES is going to give you the biggest numbers possible. It's a show to...show off.

[Lee Stewart]

Kosty:

Any reason why HMM has not published the week ending 12/17 pie chart yet?

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/

[GizmoDVD]

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

Kosty:

Any reason why HMM has not published the week ending 12/17 pie chart yet?

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/

IIRC, they are on holiday vacation. We will probably get both in a few days (or, IIRC again, Kosty got one of them last year when they didn;t publish it).

[mikemorel]

Originally Posted by Kosty

Its not that simple I am afraid.

EditL I see my point has already been made.

DEG, 3rd Quarter 2010 Report:

Blu-ray hardware sales continued to climb in the first three quarters of the year as well, selling more than three million set-top units, an increase of 104 percent over the same period last year. This brings the total installed base of Blu-ray Disc playback devices in the U.S. to 21.1 million units.

DEG, 4th Quarter 2010 Report:

The DEG estimates that the number of Blu-ray playback devices in U.S. households soared to 27.5 million in 2010, up 62 percent.

DEG, 1st Quarter 2011 report:

Additionally, Blu-ray Disc hardware increased, with sales (inclusive of BD set-tops, PS3s and HTiBs) up more than 13 percent over first quarter 2010. This brings total household penetration of all Blu-ray compatible devices to nearly 30 million U.S. homes.

In DEG land, 1 BD device = 1 household.

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

Kosty:

Any reason why HMM has not published the week ending 12/17 pie chart yet?

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

IIRC, they are on holiday vacation. We will probably get both in a few days (or, IIRC again, Kosty got one of them last year when they didn;t publish it).

Holiday scheduling.

IIRC the last three years they did not publish the last two or three weeks of the year on the normal schedule. We we get the data anyway.

As soon as I get it from HMM or someone sees it up I'll post it up here. I am assuming we will get 12/17 and 12/24 next Monday or Tuesday when the next week's ending 12/31/11 is normally due.


Even if it is not published in the magazine or online at the website we will get the data so we can have a complete set.

[Lee Stewart]

Originally Posted by Kosty

Holiday scheduling.

IIRC the last three years they did not publish the last two or three weeks of the year on the normal schedule. We we get the data anyway.

As soon as I get it from HMM or someone sees it up I'll post it up here. I am assuming we will get 12/17 and 12/24 next Monday or Tuesday when the next week's ending 12/31/11 is normally due.


Even if it is not published in the magazine or online at the website we will get the data so we can have a complete set.

OK - Thanks.

[Lee Stewart]

[mikemorel]

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

OD down $110 million.