Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

[cakefoo]

Originally Posted by chipvideo

You two can cheerlead all you want on one movie. LOL. Fact is up til now 10% YOY growth for blu-ray. Call me a doom and gloomer. Them the facts.

That would mean more if it were a fair BO comparison. What's fair and apples to apples and current is the MI BD share. Call it cheerleading, I just call it observing facts.

[Kosty]

That's a pretty typical graph for a major tentpole release in comparison with the other titles index numbers.

Only thing that really different is the extremely high Blu-ray marketshare there for a major release. That's a good sign for the revenue and unit numbers for Blu-ray when we get them next week.

[bruceames]

DVD gets about 2/3 of its revenue from outside the top 20 (compared to only 1/3 for Blu-ray), so a poor share on one title doesn't necessarily mean it's going to have a bad week.

Blu-ray absolutely depends on new releases so a strong share on an especially dominant title (the #2 title was only 15% of MI:4) should mean a pretty good week.

[DonnyDC]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Of course it's double counting. Rentailer purchases from studios are not counted as revenue, but they are from retailers (of course). An example (not for you, but for others).

Movie bought from the studios:

Price paid = irrelevant (since it's not reflected in the DEG report)
Amount added to DEG sell through = $0
Amount added to DEG rental = $30 (assuming 15 rentals at $2 each)
Total amount added = $30

That 'irrelevant' price as you call it doesnt disappear. And since you cant tell me how much they made then ill just assume the studios have been getting a better deal with rentailers buying from retailers.
You can choose to ignore it. The DEG and the rest of the industry will not.
But keep wearing your tinfoil hat.

Also. That isnt double counting. You guys dont know what youre talking about. Show me where the retailer transaction cost is being counted again in another transaction. Show me where its being counted twice.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by DonnyDC

That 'irrelevant' price as you call it doesnt disappear. And since you cant tell me how much they made then ill just assume the studios have are getting a better deal with rentailers buying from retailers.
You can choose to ignore it. The DEG and the rest of the industry will not.
But keep wearing your tinfoil hat.

Also. That isnt double counting. You guys dont know what youre talking about. Show me where the retailer transaction cost is being counted again in another transaction. Show me where its being counted twice.

It disappears from the DEG report. That's what Psound and I were talking about. What were you talking about?

BTW, do you know what the DEG report is, and if so, do you understand the data that it provides?

[DonnyDC]

Originally Posted by bruceames

It disappears from the DEG report. That's what Psound and I were talking about. What were you talking about?

BTW, do you know what the DEG report is?

Double counting.

Still waiting.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by DonnyDC

Double counting.

Still waiting.

I provided an elementary example already. I really don't have anything to prove to you anyway, nor do I care to.

[DonnyDC]

Originally Posted by bruceames

I provided an elementary example already. I really don't have anything to prove to you anyway, nor do I care to.

Because you cant. Move on.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by DonnyDC

Because you cant. Move on.

Move on? You're the one bringing up a 3 day old post.

[DonnyDC]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Move on? You're the one bringing up a 3 day old post.

I can keep going. Never said I wouldnt.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by DonnyDC

I can keep going. Never said I wouldnt.

I'm sure you can.

[PSound]

Originally Posted by bruceames

DVD gets about 2/3 of its revenue from outside the top 20 (compared to only 1/3 for Blu-ray), so a poor share on one title doesn't necessarily mean it's going to have a bad week.

Blu-ray absolutely depends on new releases so a strong share on an especially dominant title (the #2 title was only 15% of MI:4) should mean a pretty good week.

Agree on all counts. There is nothing about Blu-ray having a strong market share that precludes DVD from having a good week, as DVDs base has wider breadth than Blu-ray has ever (and likely ever will) show.


I am curious to see where the weekly numbers end up. With the BO lead-in and title share, anything less than a blockbuster week for BD will keep it on the same declining growth path.

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by bruceames

DVD gets about 2/3 of its revenue from outside the top 20 (compared to only 1/3 for Blu-ray), so a poor share on one title doesn't necessarily mean it's going to have a bad week.

Blu-ray absolutely depends on new releases so a strong share on an especially dominant title (the #2 title was only 15% of MI:4) should mean a pretty good week.

A better way probably to look at it is the base of routine catalog sales is much larger for DVD than for Blu-ray at the moment.

Its probably order of magnitude $80 M for DVD now and about $20 M for Blu-ray at the moment. On top of that base rate of sales the new and recent release sales from new and Top 20 titles add on to get the weekly results.

[chipvideo]

BD should have about $70 million for the week with a huge tentpole title like this as well as it haviung a huge % market share over dvd. Anything less than $70mm is going to be considered a failure to the studios. No reason OD sould sell less than $200million for the week.

[PSound]

Originally Posted by chipvideo

BD should have about $70 million for the week with a huge tentpole title like this as well as it haviung a huge % market share over dvd. Anything less than $70mm is going to be considered a failure to the studios. No reason OD sould sell less than $200million for the week.

Hard to say.

Despite the PR lies that have been pumped on these forums for years, the truth is that conversion rate on new releases has plummeted.

As such, expectations for studios has dropped significantly for new releases. The sad part is that MI may actually deliver to studio expectations, but the PR BS that is so common on these forums asserting that new release revenue for Home Video has not decline may indeed make MI look like a failure.