Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

[PSound]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Lol, I was talking a little smack when I said that. But even though I believe new release revenue is declining like everything else, I'm not going to make assumptions on others that they're lying, if they believe otherwise. And even if I felt that way I'd keep it to myself because after all, calling someone a liar is a personal attack. It's better to attack the argument. Besides, a lot of the disagreement is merely differences in semantics.

You define sustained OD revenue as meaning sustained conversion rates, and honestly I disagree with that. Sure, conversion rates is the only tool available to those who don't have access to inside info. But it doesn't take a genius to figure out that the model is flawed because it doesn't account that ticket prices need to go up to cover rising overhead while OD prices can remain flat while maintaining the same margins as before (some costs do go up but others go down). So you're not getting apples to apples anymore.

That's cool, as long as one can recognize that flaw in the model and give it its due consideration (if they think it's still worth using at that point).

No question though that studios are hurting and OD losses are a big part of that. But bigger budgets are probably just as big a reason or even more, and I also suspect that box office profits may be down even though revenue may be up. The last 10 years box office is only up 10% and we all know that theater expenses have risen much more than that.

I understand where you are coming from. I even have a ton of respect for what you are trying to do.

But again, it is tough for me to let what looks like a targeted PR message to pass when the truth is that studios are specifically reacting to loss of new release revenue including layoffs.


It has been a long time, but I used to live and work in Burbank and know that some really good people have lost jobs. It pisses me off to see someone dismiss those losses and push the idea that everything is status quo (seemingly) because it furthers the agenda of a corporation that is paying that persons source of information.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by PSound

I understand where you are coming from. I even have a ton of respect for what you are trying to do.

But again, it is tough for me to let what looks like a targeted PR message to pass when the truth is that studios are specifically reacting to loss of new release revenue including layoffs.


It has been a long time, but I used to live and work in Burbank and know that some really good people have lost jobs. It pisses me off to see someone dismiss those losses and push the idea that everything is status quo (seemingly) because it furthers the agenda of a corporation that is paying that persons source of information.

I kinda doubt that since that very person was asking me recently how I was able to obtain some information that he hadn't seen yet. He was wondering if I had a paid subscription to their data service or something, but the truth is that I just made a good guess (regarding Captain America BD attrition from week 1 to week 2).

[PSound]

Originally Posted by bruceames

I kinda doubt that since that very person was asking me recently how I was able to obtain some information that he hadn't seen yet. He was wondering if I had a paid subscription to their data service or something, but the truth is that I just made a good guess (regarding Captain America BD attrition from week 1 to week 2).

It is not even a question.

He has specifically stated he gets information before it is published from HMM, with the agreement that he does not release it before it is published.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by PSound

It is not even a question.

He has specifically stated he gets information before it is published from HMM, with the agreement that he does not release it before it is published.

Yeah, Ok. He gets the HMM data maybe up to a day before they publish it, but so what? It's the same data everyone is going to be able to see anyway. If it were exclusive additional data then I could see your point.

[PSound]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Yeah, Ok. He gets the HMM data maybe up to a day before they publish it, but so what? It's the same data everyone is going to be able to see anyway. If it were exclusive additional data then I could see your point.

And he provides data to them.

But anyway... this is pointless. I am not going to discuss this with you as his proxy. Not sure why you would want to do that in the first place.

The whole point is that this SHOULD be the forum where folks can just speak the truth without fear of retaliation simply for speaking the truth.

You and I are good. Actually for the most part, him and I are good. I just don't think that alternative views should go unchallenged or faced with fear of being silenced due to $$ influence.

[chipvideo]

Its time for studios to make budget cuts on the actors salaries. They are no different than overpaid athletes IMO. Its out of control spending on actors and athletes that are hurting everyone. We the consumer are paying for it. ITs why our cable bills keep going up.

[PSound]

Originally Posted by chipvideo

Its time for studios to make budget cuts on the actors salaries. They are no different than overpaid athletes IMO. Its out of control spending on actors and athletes that are hurting everyone. We the consumer are paying for it. ITs why our cable bills keep going up.

Actors and athletes are similar in that they get paid because people pay to see them.

If sports owners or studios felt they could make the same amount of revenue while paying someone else less, they would. Basic economics.


Likewise, studios and sports owners would gladly pocket the money saved from paying the talent less if they could continue to derive the same amount of revenue. Cable bills go up because content owners sell their channel as a package, using one popular channel or show to inflate the cost of all their channels. They know that the cable companies will take the heat if a certain percentage of customers cannot get that one piece of content they really want, and end up paying more each negotiation. Costs which get passed directly to subscribers.

[GizmoDVD]

Weird. A sales thread that is not spammed with 50 charts and graphs, often times being re-posted a dozen times.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by PSound

And he provides data to them.

But anyway... this is pointless. I am not going to discuss this with you as his proxy. Not sure why you would want to do that in the first place.

The whole point is that this SHOULD be the forum where folks can just speak the truth without fear of retaliation simply for speaking the truth.

You and I are good. Actually for the most part, him and I are good. I just don't think that alternative views should go unchallenged or faced with fear of being silenced due to $$ influence.

I agree Psound. I'm glad you are here and I really enjoy your posts and the fact that we can disagree without getting personal.

This is a forum when one can speak your mind, or "the truth" if you prefer, as long as that "truth" doesn't lie within the realm of being a personal attack. For example, suspecting someone of having professional ties (getting paid) with a trade mag, or otherwise being an insider, and then saying so, is not a personal attack. But repeating it over and over when said person has already denied it, is. But anyway, time to move on and hopefully you guys can engage in meaningful discussion in the future because it's nice to read when you're civil to each other.

[chipvideo]

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

Weird. A sales thread that is not spammed with 50 charts and graphs, often times being re-posted a dozen times.

Welcome stranger!!!

[PSound]

Originally Posted by bruceames

I agree Psound. I'm glad you are here and I really enjoy your posts and the fact that we can disagree without getting personal.

This is a forum when one can speak your mind, or "the truth" if you prefer, as long as that "truth" doesn't lie within the realm of being a personal attack. For example, suspecting someone of having professional ties (getting paid) with a trade mag, or otherwise being an insider, and then saying so, is not a personal attack. But repeating it over and over when said person has already denied it, is. But anyway, time to move on and hopefully you guys can engage in meaningful discussion in the future because it's nice to read when you're civil to each other.

To be clear, I have never once said that he was getting paid by HMM. Never.

I do believe he has a professional relationship with them. Just as I had professional relationships with organizations that did not pay me, but where we exchanged information for mutual use.

So if it comes up, yes I will say that he has a professional relationship with a trade magazine. Particularly in situations where he defends Home Media Magazine when they do actions such as publish false quotes from industry executives. Or otherwise alter the meaning of quotes with "bracketed" information that is absolutely uncorroborated by any known information.

Indeed, I think he should voluntarily disclose the professional relationship when he is actively defending their journalistic practices. To not do so is unethical, IMO.

[Malanthius]

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

Weird. A sales thread that is not spammed with 50 charts and graphs, often times being re-posted a dozen times.

Welcome Gizmo! Glad to see you here!

[bruceames]

The-Numbers posted their DVD figures for Harry Potter week, and by assuming the Nielsen ratios match theirs as they have (to within a percent or so), then HP7.2 sold about 2.72 million units on Blu-ray, or about a million more than Cars 2. That's about what I guessed, based on the expected attrition of Cars 2, which was about 79%.

Cars 2, POTC 4, and Captain America have all had attrition levels to within a few percent of each other (averaging 78%), and have been higher than the norm (about 71%). That's probably because their are more preorders or day 1 purchases, as well as the first week discounts being higher than the norm.

Based on HP units and assuming they are somewhat proportional to Cars 2 units (although high of course), Then HMM should report in around $80 million this week for BLu-ray.

http://www.the-numbers.com/dvd/chart...y/thisweek.php

[PSound]

Originally Posted by bruceames

The-Numbers posted their DVD figures for Harry Potter week, and by assuming the Nielsen ratios match theirs as they have (to within a percent or so), then HP7.2 sold about 2.72 million units on Blu-ray, or about a million more than Cars 2. That's about what I guessed, based on the expected attrition of Cars 2, which was about 79%.

Cars 2, POTC 4, and Captain America have all had attrition levels to within a few percent of each other (averaging 78%), and have been higher than the norm (about 71%). That's probably because their are more preorders or day 1 purchases, as well as the first week discounts being higher than the norm.

Based on HP units and assuming they are somewhat proportional to Cars 2 units (although high of course), Then HMM should report in around $80 million this week for BLu-ray.

http://www.the-numbers.com/dvd/chart...y/thisweek.php

Thanks Bruce!

So it looks like catalog (or post 1st week releases) are going to have to jump significantly the rest of the way for BD to continue posting significant percentage gains.

[chipvideo]

So potter did aprox 5 million units total. I dont think it will hit 10 million by the end of the year. It should be the best seller of any potter movie as its the last of the series and one of the best franchises of all time.