Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by PSound

Kosty: You are a broken record.

The future always looks great for Blu-ray (despite obvious issues that are coming up). Past poor performances are always excused by unfavorable comparison issues (even when those issues were discussed previously).


The Kosty of August 2011 stated this:



http://forums.highdefdigest.com/high...k-deg-484.html

The Kosty of today believes this:




Those views simply do not line up. Kosty in August 2011 was stating that if Q3 ended with at least 15% YoY cumulative BD growth, that 40% was "feasible".

Now you are trying to imply that BD never had a chance because of H1 comparisons.

You are a flip-flopper. And you consistently and predictably always flip-flop based on whether you are in "excuse mode" for poor BD performance, in "projections mode" about how great BD will do ("next quarter") or in "downplay mode" by telling everyone how the current impact is just a blip or was unforeseen (despite us actually discussing it and having you label those who saw it coming as "pessimistic").

My saying in August last year that 40% growth was still possible is not inconsistent with me looking back at the history and observing that the 1H results put us in a place that it was to much to recover from.

Remember the Blu-ray growth metric did rise from a yearly low in the 2Q of 7.00% to a high of 26.71% a swing of +20% before it dropped again to its end of year point in the HMM statistics of +17.7%. DEG had it a couple points higher at 19.4%. The high of +26.71% that Blu-ray reached would have translated a few points higher as well if we had that data point.

So Blu-ray probably reached in the DEG data around +30% YoY YTD growth up 20% from its 1Q low of 10%. If the 4Q 2011 releases were stronger or at least more competitive than they were it was possible to have been better than where we ended up.

In early August I doubt you also projected the December 2011 releases to be that weak either. Nor do I think you expected that the YoY growth would peak that high either before dropping. I think at the time you just thought that 20% would be the peak on more or less a steady upward path. Or that's how I remember it at the time. But then again your selective memory may be better than mine for your intentions as I know my memories of what I thought at the time do not match yours.

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by Kosty
I would agree with you that late 4Q 2011 did not meet my personal expectations for YoY growth that I had in August 2011, as I really did not project that the 2011 releases then in December would end up so much weaker than the Dec 2010 ones. Kinda hard to project Dec 2011 in Aug 2012 for releases.

I never said that Dec 2011 release strength comparisons did not affect the statistics as well. They certainly did. The late November December 4Q 2011 results dropped the YoY growth from its high of about 27% back down to 17% in the HMM statistics.

Originally Posted by PSound

Bullshit.

It was actively being discussed. You labeled those who saw it coming as "pessimistic".

It is what you do. Constantly spin any relevant information that sees or projects Blu-ray in less than a glowing light as irrelevant.

Then to come out and say you didn't see it coming? We were stating it directly to you (before we were silenced for daring contradict Kosty PR).

I do not think you can find much in the way of discussing December box office strength last summer. We knew Twilight was in the mix for Dec 2010 but we had little idea of what 2011 releases would be in that period until much later.

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by PSound

Bullshit.

It was actively being discussed. You labeled those who saw it coming as "pessimistic".

It is what you do. Constantly spin any relevant information that sees or projects Blu-ray in less than a glowing light as irrelevant.

Then to come out and say you didn't see it coming? We were stating it directly to you (before we were silenced for daring contradict Kosty PR).

BTW you were hardly silenced at AVS Forum or HDD for "contradicting Kosty PR" as much as you had issues with ignoring mod guidance and how you went about your postings and personal comments. That's obviously between you and the mods for any place you post act to decide and take action if appropriate.

Here or there or anywhere else you have always been welcomed in disagreeing with me or anyone else in an appropriate manner. But criticizing mod behavior or why you were infracted is hardly an appropriate topic of discussion here.

[GizmoDVD]

Originally Posted by Kosty

BTW you were hardly silenced at AVS Forum or HDD for "contradicting Kosty PR" as much as you had issues with ignoring mod guidance and how you went about your postings and personal comments. That's obviously between you and the mods for any place you post act to decide and take action if appropriate.

Here or there or anywhere else you have always been welcomed in disagreeing with me or anyone else in an appropriate manner. But criticizing mod behavior or why you were infracted is hardly an appropriate topic of discussion here.

Funny how the mods never silenced you for calling us much worse. But you are the primary traffic driver to that forum (or so they thought!) so they have no problem with it. That coupled with obvious biased mods meant some of us had to go (either by banning or voluntarily leaving). Much more went on behind the scenes that you are unaware of a few months ago. There's a reason why this forum has shot up in popularity and the other is pretty much you talking to yourself.

But thankfully we can point to your previous posts to call you out on without fear of being infracted here.

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

Funny how the mods never silenced you for calling us much worse. But you are the primary traffic driver to that forum (or so they thought!) so they have no problem with it. That coupled with obvious biased mods meant some of us had to go (either by banning or voluntarily leaving). Much more went on behind the scenes that you are unaware of a few months ago. There's a reason why this forum has shot up in popularity and the other is pretty much you talking to yourself.

But thankfully we can point to your previous posts to call you out on without fear of being infracted here.

I am aware of the bruceames thread as well as why you were infracted on several occasions throughout the years. Your issues with the mods at any site is not my concern nor am I in the habit or criticizing them in any case here or there or anywhere. I tend not to completely ignore mod comments or warnings as much as I can while others may not do so in their opinions. But I just honestly say what I think in any case wherever I post.

I am glad to see your commentary and overall good behavior here as well as I appreciate your point of view even when I disagree with it. That goes along with the others here as well.

[bruceames]

Ok guys, enough on the HDD mod talk please. I understand the sentiment from all sides, but what's done is done, and everybody gets a fresh start here.

Back to the topic:

I made a table on the cumulative BD and box office YoY for each week last year. Notice that BD YoY peaked on week 45 at 26.7% and the box office also peaked on that same week, down only 0.6% for the year. So I think it would be safe to conclude that Blu-ray performance under flat box office conditions would have been around 27% (29-30% DEG), given the cumulative data points for that particular week (45 weeks running).


Cumulative YoY BD and box office in 2011. Please note the percentages aren't for that particular week (except for week 1 of course), but rather the cumulative average from week 1 up to that point in each week.

Week	BD YoY	Cum BO
52	17.7%	-8.2%
51	18.7%	-8.0%
50	19.9%	-7.2%
49	22.0%	-4.9%
48	23.2%	-6.2%
47	24.5%	-4.1%
46	25.9%	-4.3%
45	26.7%	-0.6%
44	25.5%	-2.8%
43	26.6%	-1.9%
42	24.6%	-3.2%
41	22.1%	-7.5%
40	21.4%	-9.2%

39	19.7%	-9.5%
38	20.2%	-9.5%
37	18.2%	-10.6%
36	14.2%	-11.3%
35	13.1%	-13.5%
34	12.9%	-13.2%
33	12.9%	-12.8%
32	12.1%	-13.3%
31	11.3%	-13.2%
30	10.8%	-14.5%
29	11.4%	-12.7%
28	10.6%	-13.2%
27	9.6%	-16.7%

26	9.3%	-16.1%
25	8.3%	-15.1%
24	8.0%	-17.7%
23	7.4%	-19.6%
22	7.2%	-23.5%
21	10.1%	-17.0%
20	9.6%	-18.9%
19	9.7%	-17.6%
18	10.4%	-19.2%
17	11.3%	-20.7%
16	15.6%	-18.1%
15	22.9%	-0.7%
14	15.1%	-11.4%

13	9.4%	-25.9%
12	8.1%	-24.2%
11	16.7%	-22.5%
10	23.2%	-5.4%
9	24.1%	-1.0%
8	22.4%	13.1%
7	18.8%	-5.2%
6	17.8%	-6.4%
5	19.7%	-10.4%
4	22.0%	4.3%
3	20.1%	-6.8%
2	22.5%	-8.0%
1	18.6%	-16.6%

[Kosty]

That's showing almost the same impact as the graph below.

I think that its pretty fair to state that its reasonable to see that the Blu-ray YoY percentage for growth would have been in that +27% HMM to +30% DEG growth range if the box office strength was more even.

But you can also look that Blu-ray YoY growth dropped down almost 16% points from its 1Q highs of +24% to a low of 8% in the 1Q, a -16% swing. So maybe the higher possible range was +16% points from where we ended up? That's still only 36% growth for the year.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Kosty

That's showing almost the same impact as the graph below.

I think that its pretty fair to state that its reasonable to see that the Blu-ray YoY percentage for growth would have been in that +27% HMM to +30% DEG growth range if the box office strength was more even.

But you can also look that Blu-ray YoY growth dropped down almost 16% points from its 1Q highs of +24% to a low of 8% in the 1Q, a -16% swing. So maybe the higher possible range was +16% points from where we ended up? That's still only 36% growth for the year.

Who knows. Of course the earlier in the year we go, the greater the variability that occurs in YoY box office and BD revenue (or anything else), since there are fewer weeks to keep the average stable. But I guess 36% could have been possible with flat box office.

[PSound]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Ok guys, enough on the HDD mod talk please. I understand the sentiment from all sides, but what's done is done, and everybody gets a fresh start here.

Back to the topic:

I made a table on the cumulative BD and box office YoY for each week last year. Notice that BD YoY peaked on week 45 at 26.7% and the box office also peaked on that same week, down only 0.6% for the year. So I think it would be safe to conclude that Blu-ray performance under flat box office conditions would have been around 27% (29-30% DEG), given the cumulative data points for that particular week (45 weeks running).


Cumulative YoY BD and box office in 2011. Please note the percentages aren't for that particular week (except for week 1 of course), but rather the cumulative average from week 1 up to that point in each week.

Week	BD YoY	Cum BO
52	17.7%	-8.2%
51	18.7%	-8.0%
50	19.9%	-7.2%
49	22.0%	-4.9%
48	23.2%	-6.2%
47	24.5%	-4.1%
46	25.9%	-4.3%
45	26.7%	-0.6%
44	25.5%	-2.8%
43	26.6%	-1.9%
42	24.6%	-3.2%
41	22.1%	-7.5%
40	21.4%	-9.2%

39	19.7%	-9.5%
38	20.2%	-9.5%
37	18.2%	-10.6%
36	14.2%	-11.3%
35	13.1%	-13.5%
34	12.9%	-13.2%
33	12.9%	-12.8%
32	12.1%	-13.3%
31	11.3%	-13.2%
30	10.8%	-14.5%
29	11.4%	-12.7%
28	10.6%	-13.2%
27	9.6%	-16.7%

26	9.3%	-16.1%
25	8.3%	-15.1%
24	8.0%	-17.7%
23	7.4%	-19.6%
22	7.2%	-23.5%
21	10.1%	-17.0%
20	9.6%	-18.9%
19	9.7%	-17.6%
18	10.4%	-19.2%
17	11.3%	-20.7%
16	15.6%	-18.1%
15	22.9%	-0.7%
14	15.1%	-11.4%

13	9.4%	-25.9%
12	8.1%	-24.2%
11	16.7%	-22.5%
10	23.2%	-5.4%
9	24.1%	-1.0%
8	22.4%	13.1%
7	18.8%	-5.2%
6	17.8%	-6.4%
5	19.7%	-10.4%
4	22.0%	4.3%
3	20.1%	-6.8%
2	22.5%	-8.0%
1	18.6%	-16.6%

Obviously the release of the crown jewel catalog series had an impact that would not show up anywhere in box office comparisons.

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Who knows. Of course the earlier in the year we go, the greater the variability that occurs in YoY box office and BD revenue (or anything else), since there are fewer weeks to keep the average stable. But I guess 36% could have been possible with flat box office.

I agree. We will really know.

Also the earlier in the year the lower the magnitudes being compared.

I'd assert that the slowdown in the late 4Q had a possible larger impact as that was in the higher volume period of the year.

It does seem like if the year before had a 58% YoY growth rate that was goosed upward by the better box office and Twilight Saga movies and Avatar, that even box office that year would have instead of been lower, say around 50% instead of 58% with even box office.

So its would be plausible to see 27% to 36% growth the next year if the box office was the same.

But its all kinda academic anyway as there is no way to really know for sure. If box office is up from year to year it will help home video sale as well as the other way around it will hurt if its down.

[PSound]

Originally Posted by Kosty

I'd assert that the slowdown in the late 4Q had a possible larger impact as that was in the higher volume period of the year.

And you previously stated that the studios were happy with the performance from an earlier release of blockbuster titles.

Now you are asserting that it hurt overall BD sell through?


More flip-flopping as it suits the need to spin BD now, in the past or in the future.

[PSound]

Originally Posted by Kosty

I do not think you can find much in the way of discussing December box office strength last summer. We knew Twilight was in the mix for Dec 2010 but we had little idea of what 2011 releases would be in that period until much later.

That is not factually incorrect. By the end of August 2011, we knew Q4 was going to be front loaded and that end of Q3 had strength of releases that would naturally mean they could not be released in Q4.

You are posting falsehoods again.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by PSound

Obviously the release of the crown jewel catalog series had an impact that would not show up anywhere in box office comparisons.

Good point. I don't think there was anything in 2010 catalog releases that would compare to Star Wars, certainly nothing released in Q3 2010. It was a monster release.

This year I hear Indiana Jones is coming out this fall, so it'll be interesting to see how sales of that compare with Star Wars (although obviously it will fall short, revenue-wise).

[PSound]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Good point. I don't think there was anything in 2010 catalog releases that would compare to Star Wars, certainly nothing released in Q3 2010. It was a monster release.

This year I hear Indiana Jones is coming out this fall, so it'll be interesting to see how sales of that compare with Star Wars (although obviously it will fall short, revenue-wise).

Yep. Indiana Jones would definitely register, but I would expect it to fall short of Star Wars.

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by PSound

And you previously stated that the studios were happy with the performance from an earlier release of blockbuster titles.

Now you are asserting that it hurt overall BD sell through?


More flip-flopping as it suits the need to spin BD now, in the past or in the future.

You are missing up apples and oranges in two different discussions.

My comments were to bruceames there in regards to box office differences having a possible greater impact in the 4Q holiday seasonal sales period than they would earlier in the year.

Your continuous personally directed comments accusing me of lying, flip flopping and PR spin only make you look more foolish in your obsessions in attacking me instead of discussing the arguments at hand. They are a habit of ad hominem attacks from you that you use to displace the arguments against the source rather than the argument at hand. They do not help your arguments when you fail to discuss the disagreements in the actual issues but instead must resort to trying to malign the source instead of the actual issue.