Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

[Kosty]

SIDE NOTE: The point of bringing up POTC is that an exclusive BD window was expected to be a strong positive for Blu-ray. Kosty believed it. Bruceames believed it. What happened is that the experiment was a failure. It did not boost Blu-ray much, and hurt the overall sell through performance of POTC. In retrospect we can see how poorly it did. But there was rough consensus before the release was that it would boost BD sell through revenue beyond simple BO strength for the week.

We indeed did not see that much of a bump from the POTC4 early release for Blu-ray. But it still sold according to its box office. Kinda hard to know what the expectations were for the 4th movie in the series that had a high 3D premium to its box office. The issue most discussed was whether or not the DVD only would result in lost DVD sales or overall lost OD sales or revenues. The DVD only sku sold well over a million units upon release on top of the over three million BD+DVD combo sales a month before so the results are arguable still.

Disney sold more units at premium prices with selling the BD+DVD combo early so that factor as well as the promotional aspect of Disney promoting Blu-ray to families were also considerations besides raw DVD units moved.

[PSound]

Originally Posted by Kosty

That is simply untrue. I never stated that the first half 2011 numbers would not have a significant effect on the overall numbers at the end of the year. They were always seen as a big hole that would have to be dug out of even with better releases that might occur in the year.

You absolutely stated that a 20% prediction after H1 was pessimistic.

That was a change from my 40% prediction at the beginning of the year.

[GizmoDVD]

Originally Posted by Kosty

We indeed did not see that much of a bump from the POTC4 early release for Blu-ray. But it still sold according to its box office. Kinda hard to know what the expectations were for the 4th movie in the series that had a high 3D premium to its box office. The issue most discussed was whether or not the DVD only would result in lost DVD sales or overall lost OD sales or revenues. The DVD only sku sold well over a million units upon release on top of the over three million BD+DVD combo sales a month before so the results are arguable still.

Disney sold more units at premium prices with selling the BD+DVD combo early so that factor as well as the promotional aspect of Disney promoting Blu-ray to families were also considerations besides raw DVD units moved.

Well, we know the POTC4 experiment was a failure as Disney has not replicated that awesome idea again. Same with Universal who was packaging Blu-ray discs inside a DVD Case and selling them for the same price (trying to fool DVD consumers to pay more money for a useless disc).

It's become pretty clear nearly everything the studios have done to try and boost Blu-ray revenue has failed. Nothing is working. UV is likely the next thing they will push, but that's not going to do much either.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

Well, we know the POTC4 experiment was a failure as Disney has not replicated that awesome idea again. Same with Universal who was packaging Blu-ray discs inside a DVD Case and selling them for the same price (trying to fool DVD consumers to pay more money for a useless disc).

It's become pretty clear nearly everything the studios have done to try and boost Blu-ray revenue has failed. Nothing is working. UV is likely the next thing they will push, but that's not going to do much either.

Yeah, every indication was that the experiment was a failure. DVD sales were down at least 50% in the first few weeks from what they otherwise would have been, and the Blu-ray sales were average to below average for a title of that magnitude. For a title that was exclusive, the sales were expected to be much better, but it didn't seem to make any difference at all. And it's not just box office, this franchise is one of the top sellers. According to The-Numbers, POTC: At World's End DVD sold nearly 14 million copies in 2007, just 4 weeks into its release! You don't think Disney notices the difference?

Look at Transformers: DOTM, it sold over 2 1/2 times the DVD units (according to TN) as Pirates, and yet it's a 3rd or 4th movie in the series just like Pirates is.

I had high expectations when this was announced but anybody with eyes can see that it was a failure. I would be surprised to see Disney repeat this experiment on such an important title at all this year.

[PSound]

Some history about what was actually said post H1:

Originally Posted by Kosty - 8/31/2011

The 1H comparisons are history. They will not matter much as time rolls along in any case as they will be superseded by the end of the year statistics for anyone looking at this stuff.

If you want to wallow in the mud and continue to live in the past that's certainly up to you. But its not unreasonable for rational people having a discussion here or looking at the future possibilities in the 4Q to see that Avatar was an unusual event and the total box office disparity this year compared to last year has affected the year to year comparisons.

You are the one spinning when you ignore the obvious that Avatar has had a major effect on the YoY comparisons.

Who cares that the 1H comparison was 10%? That was two months ago and it will not matter at the end of the year or in the future what that interim number was.

If its not predictive of the 4Q numbers because its distorted because of the box office disparity of having Twilight: New Moon, Avatar and Alice in Wonderland in the 2010 data without matching analogs in 2011 and its not predictive of the future and 4Q its a momentary historical benchmark, nothing more.

The only effect it will have is when the 3Q and 4Q and final yearly numbers come in for Blu-ray and home entertainment revenues in total the low 1Q and 2Q numbers will only make the 3Q and 4Q numbers look better in comparison.

Originally Posted by PSound

My narrative is actual sales numbers and trends.

At this point I don't see things hitting the 40% number I thought we would see this year.


Even if Blu-ray ends the year at 25%-30% growth (and OD down 15%), your narrative is basically going to be "Look how much better it is than the sub 10% growth in H1".

Indeed, the difference is you massage the impact of the numbers so that it is always sunny in Blu-ray land.

What you call doom and gloom, I call the reality of relatively low growth in light of the very large DVD market that Blu-ray is cannibalizing from. Most of the time I have been commenting here has been in the midst of single digit Blu-ray growth from a sub $2 billion yearly base. Forgive me if I do not find that impressive.

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/high...k-deg-483.html

Originally Posted by KOSTY - 8/31/2011

Blu-ray will certainly do that with unit volume growth and if we get to 15-20% YoY cumulative YTD growth by the end of the 3Q that 40% benchmark for Blu-ray revenue growth is within reach by the end of the year taking product mix changes into the calculation.

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/high...k-deg-484.html



Again, Kosty pushing forth 40% YoY growth after H1 performance if only Q3 ends up at least 15-20% YoY cumulative growth. Hmmmm....

But now after the fact, it is all only the fault of release strength in H1? Again. Bullshit!!

Kosty shifts his position to ALWAYS spin things as fine and dandy for Blu-ray. Even contradicting his clear assertions from the past.

[bruceames]

Well 40% was within reach assuming 15-20% after Q3, depending on the Q4 box office, and YoY was around 17% by the start of Q4. It would have taken a very strong Q4 though to get to 40% (exactly 70% Q4 YoY), and they way the end of Q3 and beginning of Q4 was shaping up, even I remember being optimistic (although not to tune of 40% EOY YoY), and we were seeing lots of 70%+ YoY weeks. So I can understand why Kosty was especially optimistic at the time. Unfortunately though the bottom fell out the last 7 weeks of the year, which also happen to be the biggest selling weeks of the year, and the cumulative YoY plummeted from a peak of 27% to around 17% (HMM)

[PSound]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Well 40% was within reach assuming 15-20% after Q3, depending on the Q4 box office, and YoY was around 17% by the start of Q4. It would have taken a very strong Q4 though to get to 40% (probably 70-80% Q4 YoY), and they way the end of Q3 and beginning of Q4 was shaping up, even I remember being optimistic (although not to tune of 40% EOY YoY). So I can understand why Kosty was especially optimistic at the time.

Understood.

My point is that if you are talking after H1 that Blu-ray could easily hit 40% YoY growth if only Q3 does "15%-20% cumulative YoY", and then YoY actually ends up at 20%, then the issue with growth was more than just the box office disparity in H1.


The fact that Blu-ray sell through ended up sub 20% for the year despite a strong Q3 means that Q4 also underperformed based on Kosty's understanding and projections on 8/31/2011.

But now he is spinning it as only being box office related, with a strong emphasis on Avatar (and H1 in general) comparison weeks. When he stated that 40% was "within reach" well after the Avatar comparison week, it means he had already entirely factored in the Avatar impact.

Originally Posted by Kosty

Its not that the box office strength of releases being down -26% in the first quarter of last year or Avatar being in the 2Q comparisons from 2010 to 2011 had anything to do with that Year or Year growth rate....

And that means that Q4 failed to meet his expectations. That is in direct contrast to him now trying to portray 2011 BD performance solely in light of H1.

And that is my entire assertion. At any given point in time, Kosty will downplay current trends, project higher into the future and build a wealth of excuses for past performance of Blu-ray.

The impact of the facts on reality are not taken into consideration. Facts are only used to spin a positive to Blu-ray performance. And how those facts are portrayed shifts depending on whether it is time for "downplay mode", "projection mode" or "excuse mode".

And for the most part I really wouldn't care if he decided to go that route.


When I do care is when he tries to portray my views as something "wrong" or "negative" despite the fact that I always view the facts just as they are. If it is a negative to BD performance at the time (like Q1 box office), then it is always a negative. If it is a positive to BD at the time (like end of Q3 and beginning of Q4 catalog and release strength) it is always a positive impact to BD.

It is his lack of consistency as an attack against my views that is unacceptable.

[PSound]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Well 40% was within reach assuming 15-20% after Q3, depending on the Q4 box office, and YoY was around 17% by the start of Q4. It would have taken a very strong Q4 though to get to 40% (exactly 70% Q4 YoY), and they way the end of Q3 and beginning of Q4 was shaping up, even I remember being optimistic (although not to tune of 40% EOY YoY), and we were seeing lots of 70%+ YoY weeks. So I can understand why Kosty was especially optimistic at the time. Unfortunately though the bottom fell out the last 7 weeks of the year, which also happen to be the biggest selling weeks of the year, and the cumulative YoY plummeted from a peak of 27% to around 17% (HMM)

BTW... I pointed out during the end of Q3, beginning of Q4 timeframe that OD was blowing it's wad on box office strength, and getting a crazy boost by the Star Wars Q3 release. That is why I knew the run was not sustainable.

Just like the current run is not sustainable for many of the same reasons.

[Malanthius]

Funny. I never heard you correct Kosty when he said there were NO expectations. No I see him slowly changing his tune to say those expectations were adjusted. Well Duh! Some of us have always known this. This is just one example of the spin and denial we see from him. Maybe if more people spoke up to correct him over the years we could have put this argument to rest. But guys like you kept your mouths shut to protect Bluray and your fellow fanboys.

Originally Posted by cakefoo

Everyone acknowledges that Blu-ray did not meet the higher end expectations that were initially set for it before any of the format wars began. What you need to do is understand that it doesn't make Blu-ray a blip on the radar or a lost cause or a failure.

We get reminded that Blu-ray "failed to meet expectations" every time we read your sig and every time you post there always seems to be some overall theme of Blu-ray failing to meet expectations. "Stop apologizing, it's a failure and that's all that matters." maybe to you and to your posse of haters, but to the studios, Blu-ray is a welcome excuse to charge more per movie and re-release their catalogs and make hundreds of millions of dollars each year to satisfy people's evolving tastes for picture and sound quality.

It's simply delusional to pretend like the format is a flop when it's generating hundreds of millions per studio, per year, and is still growing, with no replacement format in sight.

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by PSound

Some history about what was actually said post H1:






http://forums.highdefdigest.com/high...k-deg-483.html




http://forums.highdefdigest.com/high...k-deg-484.html



Again, Kosty pushing forth 40% YoY growth after H1 performance if only Q3 ends up at least 15-20% YoY cumulative growth. Hmmmm....

But now after the fact, it is all only the fault of release strength in H1? Again. Bullshit!!

Kosty shifts his position to ALWAYS spin things as fine and dandy for Blu-ray. Even contradicting his clear assertions from the past.

I said at that time looking at the strong summer releases that it was within reach coming from the lows of 10%. The metric did reach almost +27% around when POTC4 was released before it dropped once again when the post end of November and December 2011 box office strength switched in favor of 2010 once gain. I said it was within reach with those assumptions which it was at the time.

The 1Q 2011 comparisons had a great effect on the annual YoY growth metric and revenue growth change. That's the driving force for the annual statistics. But it was not the only one. 3Q 2011 was strong as well as October and early November of last year. But starting in mid November 2011 and going through the end of the year the box office comparisons including another Twilight Saga movie drove down the metrics once again.

We all talked about it at the time. Late 4Q 2011 partially offset the gains made in the 3Q and early 4Q. But everything started in a whole that had to be dug out after the 1Q results were in.

Originally Posted by KOSTY - 8/31/2011
Blu-ray will certainly do that with unit volume growth and if we get to 15-20% YoY cumulative YTD growth by the end of the 3Q that 40% benchmark for Blu-ray revenue growth is within reach by the end of the year taking product mix changes into the calculation.

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by PSound

Understood.

My point is that if you are talking after H1 that Blu-ray could easily hit 40% YoY growth if only Q3 does "15%-20% cumulative YoY", and then YoY actually ends up at 20%, then the issue with growth was more than just the box office disparity in H1.


The fact that Blu-ray sell through ended up sub 20% for the year despite a strong Q3 means that Q4 also underperformed based on Kosty's understanding and projections on 8/31/2011.

But now he is spinning it as only being box office related, with a strong emphasis on Avatar (and H1 in general) comparison weeks. When he stated that 40% was "within reach" well after the Avatar comparison week, it means he had already entirely factored in the Avatar impact.



And that means that Q4 failed to meet his expectations. That is in direct contrast to him now trying to portray 2011 BD performance solely in light of H1.

And that is my entire assertion. At any given point in time, Kosty will downplay current trends, project higher into the future and build a wealth of excuses for past performance of Blu-ray.

The impact of the facts on reality are not taken into consideration. Facts are only used to spin a positive to Blu-ray performance. And how those facts are portrayed shifts depending on whether it is time for "downplay mode", "projection mode" or "excuse mode".

And for the most part I really wouldn't care if he decided to go that route.


When I do care is when he tries to portray my views as something "wrong" or "negative" despite the fact that I always view the facts just as they are. If it is a negative to BD performance at the time (like Q1 box office), then it is always a negative. If it is a positive to BD at the time (like end of Q3 and beginning of Q4 catalog and release strength) it is always a positive impact to BD.

It is his lack of consistency as an attack against my views that is unacceptable.

Late 4Q after mid November also clearly drove down the metrics. No one is disputing that.

I agree with you that the late 4Q box office comparisons also depressed the YoY comparisons and the December box office strength including a 4Q 2010 Twilight Saga movie also had an effect. But the driving force for the year was the 1Q 2010 box office strength as the end of the year comparisons never recovered from that despite being more even in the 2Q, up in the 3Q, up early 4Q but then down again later in the 4Q. Blu-ray (and DVD) did better all year in the better box office comparison periods and worse all year when those comparisons were in favor of 2010. I never said otherwise.

I did not think that the late Dec 2011 period would drop as much as I probably underestimated the factor of the Twilight and Toy Story 3 and Despicable Me title affecting the stats as much as they did. December 2011 did not compete well with releases in that regard.

By the nature of talking about trends over long periods of time or comparing things year to year, a strong period in one year (Avatar, Twilight) is going to be a positive impact in that year's statistical comparisons and the next year as greater competition for the new year's comparison its always going to be a negative when comapring the new year to it.

It will be the same when we discuss weeks 6 and 7 next year where this year's strong positive performance for Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 1 will be tougher for next year's comparisons.

Last year's strong weeks remaining until September though end up with the set of Tangled Tron: Legacy and Harry Potter 7.1 releases coming up early in the 2Q. Once we get beyond that there is not much remaining in 2Q 2011 and 3Q 2011 to depress the YoY metrics much all the way into the second half of September 2011 where Thor and X:Men First Class hit the streets.

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by PSound

Understood.

My point is that if you are talking after H1 that Blu-ray could easily hit 40% YoY growth if only Q3 does "15%-20% cumulative YoY", and then YoY actually ends up at 20%, then the issue with growth was more than just the box office disparity in H1.


The fact that Blu-ray sell through ended up sub 20% for the year despite a strong Q3 means that Q4 also underperformed based on Kosty's understanding and projections on 8/31/2011.

But now he is spinning it as only being box office related, with a strong emphasis on Avatar (and H1 in general) comparison weeks. When he stated that 40% was "within reach" well after the Avatar comparison week, it means he had already entirely factored in the Avatar impact.



And that means that Q4 failed to meet his expectations. That is in direct contrast to him now trying to portray 2011 BD performance solely in light of H1.

And that is my entire assertion. At any given point in time, Kosty will downplay current trends, project higher into the future and build a wealth of excuses for past performance of Blu-ray.

The impact of the facts on reality are not taken into consideration. Facts are only used to spin a positive to Blu-ray performance. And how those facts are portrayed shifts depending on whether it is time for "downplay mode", "projection mode" or "excuse mode".

And for the most part I really wouldn't care if he decided to go that route.


When I do care is when he tries to portray my views as something "wrong" or "negative" despite the fact that I always view the facts just as they are. If it is a negative to BD performance at the time (like Q1 box office), then it is always a negative. If it is a positive to BD at the time (like end of Q3 and beginning of Q4 catalog and release strength) it is always a positive impact to BD.

It is his lack of consistency as an attack against my views that is unacceptable.

Originally Posted by PSound

The fact that Blu-ray sell through ended up sub 20% for the year despite a strong Q3 means that Q4 also underperformed based on Kosty's understanding and projections on 8/31/2011.

I would agree that late 4Q was also under performing as well. Just because 1Q and 2Q with Avatar were the major inflection points affecting the year does not mean that late 4Q did not have a negative impact as well.

Originally Posted by PSound

But now he is spinning it as only being box office related, with a strong emphasis on Avatar (and H1 in general) comparison weeks. When he stated that 40% was "within reach" well after the Avatar comparison week, it means he had already entirely factored in the Avatar impact.

And that means that Q4 failed to meet his expectations. That is in direct contrast to him now trying to portray 2011 BD performance solely in light of H1.

Late 4Q was more of an impact than I thought it was going to be but I understand why it was the case. Again I am stating that 1H of last year was the hole that had to be climbed out of and set the pace for all of last year. 1Q 2011 was the period where the bulk of the box office strength disparity in favor of 2010 rested in the year, while 2Q was more even, 3Q in favor of 2011 and 4Q ended up again being in favor of 2010.

I would agree with you that late 4Q 2011 did not meet my personal expectations for YoY growth that I had in August 2011, as I really did not project that the 2011 releases then in December would end up so much weaker than the Dec 2010 ones. Kinda hard to project Dec 2011 in Aug 2012 for releases.

I never said that Dec 2011 release strength comparisons did not affect the statistics as well. They certainly did. The late November December 4Q 2011 results dropped the YoY growth from its high of about 27% back down to 17% in the HMM statistics.

[PSound]

Kosty: You are a broken record.

The future always looks great for Blu-ray (despite obvious issues that are coming up). Past poor performances are always excused by unfavorable comparison issues (even when those issues were discussed previously).


The Kosty of August 2011 stated this:

Originally Posted by KOSTY - 8/31/2011

Blu-ray will certainly do that with unit volume growth and if we get to 15-20% YoY cumulative YTD growth by the end of the 3Q that 40% benchmark for Blu-ray revenue growth is within reach by the end of the year taking product mix changes into the calculation.

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/high...k-deg-484.html

The Kosty of today believes this:

Originally Posted by Kosty

Its not that the box office strength of releases being down -26% in the first quarter of last year or Avatar being in the 2Q comparisons from 2010 to 2011 had anything to do with that Year or Year growth rate....

Its only "almost unfathomably bad performance" only if you want to ignore obvious variables such as the Year over Year release strength disparity in your observations. Professional decision makers at the studios and in the retail industry understand those factors and you just cannot pretend that they do not exist.

Blu-ray certainly grew better when the comparable releases were better in the 3Q and 4Q of last year and in the past few weeks as well.

Those views simply do not line up. Kosty in August 2011 was stating that if Q3 ended with at least 15% YoY cumulative BD growth, that 40% was "feasible".

Now you are trying to imply that BD never had a chance because of H1 comparisons.

You are a flip-flopper. And you consistently and predictably always flip-flop based on whether you are in "excuse mode" for poor BD performance, in "projections mode" about how great BD will do ("next quarter") or in "downplay mode" by telling everyone how the current impact is just a blip or was unforeseen (despite us actually discussing it and having you label those who saw it coming as "pessimistic").

[PSound]

Originally Posted by Kosty

I would agree with you that late 4Q 2011 did not meet my personal expectations for YoY growth that I had in August 2011, as I really did not project that the 2011 releases then in December would end up so much weaker than the Dec 2010 ones. Kinda hard to project Dec 2011 in Aug 2012 for releases.

I never said that Dec 2011 release strength comparisons did not affect the statistics as well. They certainly did. The late November December 4Q 2011 results dropped the YoY growth from its high of about 27% back down to 17% in the HMM statistics.

Bullshit.

It was actively being discussed. You labeled those who saw it coming as "pessimistic".

It is what you do. Constantly spin any relevant information that sees or projects Blu-ray in less than a glowing light as irrelevant.

Then to come out and say you didn't see it coming? We were stating it directly to you (before we were silenced for daring contradict Kosty PR).

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by PSound

BTW... I pointed out during the end of Q3, beginning of Q4 timeframe that OD was blowing it's wad on box office strength, and getting a crazy boost by the Star Wars Q3 release. That is why I knew the run was not sustainable.

Just like the current run is not sustainable for many of the same reasons.

I would agree with you that it will be tough to sustain,

But once we get past April there is not much left in the 2011 weeks until September so the 2012 tendency will stay at a higher level that the 2011 YoY from now until September.

It will be ust like last year in reverse if a stronger Q1 sets the pace for the year in that metric unlike last year when a weak Q1 gave us a hole to work out from.


Blu-ray and OD Cumulative Year Over Year Year to Date Trends Through Week Ending 02/12/12


Note: This is the highest these benchmarks have been since we have been keeping track of them. At the moment Blu-ray year to date is actually covering DVD attrition and the total DVD+Blu-ray = OD revenues for the year is positive for the first time in the historical data.

Obviously a result of the more favorable releases in the comparison period but still notable.