Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

[bruceames]

OD had a surprisingly good week, and the good news is that OD is UP 0.8% for the year. We haven't had a stretch this long with OD being up since late Q3 to early Q4 last year.

The reason why OD is up this time is mostly due to DVD performing very well. This is the first time in over a year when DVD has been down less than 11% over a 7 week span. It is only down 6.1% through the first 7 weeks of this year.

The last time OD was up through 7 consecutive weeks was in mid through late October last year, during that time DVD was down around 14% while Blu-ray was up a little over 70%.

YoY box office is up 16.1%.

[PSound]

Originally Posted by bruceames

OD had a surprisingly good week, and the good news is that OD is UP 0.8% for the year. We haven't had a stretch this long with OD being up since late Q4 to early Q4 last year.

The reason why OD is up this time is mostly due to DVD performing very well. This is the first time in over a year when DVD has been down less than 11% over a 7 week span. It is only down 6.1% through the first 7 weeks of this year.

The last time OD was up through 7 consecutive weeks was in mid through late October last year, during that time DVD was down around 14% while Blu-ray was up a little over 70%.

YoY box office is up 16.1%.

I don't recall there ever being a week where DVD was up double digits when BO was down. Anomaly is an understatement.

[Malanthius]

How does DVD go up when there is a new and improved format that has been on the market for 5 years?

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by PSound

I don't recall there ever being a week where DVD was up double digits when BO was down. Anomaly is an understatement.

Yes, Twilight must have had a really good Sunday that opening weekend (and carrying over to the next several days). That's the only explanation really.

Regarding the strong performance of DVD this year, relative to OD, I was going to attribute it to the Twilight release as well, since it gets a lower BD market share than normal. "Normal" BD market share in top 20 is around 35-40%. But then I realized that BD had Lady and the Tramp exclusive to the format, so it pretty much evened things out.

To investigate further, I took the combined market share of Twilight and Tramp to see how they compare to the average BD share for the year: 36.4% (unweighted for the strength of each week).

The week earlier Twilight had a 25% BD share and a 100.00 OD index, while Tramp was 100% BD share and a 30.22 OD index. That means for every 100 Twilight titles sold, BD sold 25 and DVD 75, and for every 30 Tramp titles sold, all were BD. So combining the two you get 130 OD unites, of which 55 are BD, a 42.4% share.

This week is was 24% BD share Twilight and a 100.00 OD index, and Tramp had 100% BD share and an 11.50 OD index. That comes out to a combined 31.8% BD share.

So when you combine the strengths of those two top titles for the last 2 weeks, you get a very normal BD share. Thus the reason why DVD is doing so well compared to BD must lie elsewhere.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Malanthius

How does DVD go up when there is a new and improved format that has been on the market for 5 years?

It's really odd Mal, an anomaly like Psound says. Blu-ray last year had a 19.7% average market share for Q1. So far this year it's only 3.8% higher, at 23.5%. It's like Blu-ray is constantly gnawing at DVD's share but never can really take a bite out of it.

The market share growth has been linear, but as new formats go, it should be exponential. At this rate it's going to be 2015 or even 2016 before Blu-ray overtakes DVD (on average overall, not for a single week or just in the top 20).

Blu-ray market share showing linear growth

[Kosty]

Updated thru week ending 2/18/12

Table of Blu-ray sales (HMM and DEG)
numbers are in (revenue) millions.
Weekly figures are from HMM (Home Media Magazine)

2012 HMM    1085.91     0.8%     830.69    -6.1%     255.12   32.7%    23.5%    1040.9   896.2										
Week Date      OD     OD YoY      DVD    DVD YoY       BD    BD YoY  BD Share  TBO2012 TBO2011										

7   2/18     207.15    18.9%     160.38    10.4%      46.77   61.7%    22.6%      16.4    86.2
6   2/11     205.54    19.4%     151.09     3.1%      54.45  104.2%    26.5%     316.5   224.0
5   2/4      144.90    -8.6%     110.25   -16.0%      34.65   27.1%    23.9%     118.5    23.0
4   1/28     131.95   -13.6%      98.40   -20.2%      33.55   14.2%    25.4%     226.3   201.2
3   1/21     129.39    -2.4%     103.53    -4.9%      25.86    8.9%    20.0%     112.7    60.7
2   1/14     128.65    -5.1%     100.16    -7.7%      28.49    5.6%    22.1%     143.4   116.2
1   1/7      138.33    -8.0%     106.88   -11.6%      31.35    7.0%    22.7%     157.7   134.3

2011 DEG    8951.80   -13.2%    6851.80   -19.5%    2150.00   19.4%    24.0%    
2011 HMM    8604.20   -13.9%    6608.28   -20.3%    1995.92   17.7%    23.2%    9936.0 10820.9																			

Q4 DEG      3338.95   -11.0%    2464.81   -16.5%     924.14   15.5%    27.7%
Q4 HMM      3125.11   -12.4%    2280.75   -19.5%     844.36   15.1%    27.0%    3698.4  3932.2

52  12/31    174.13   -25.6%     130.29   -28.7%      43.84  -14.7%    25.2%      64.3    95.9
51  12/24    482.11   -13.1%     368.59   -16.9%     113.52    2.2%    23.5%     205.6   303.6
50  12/17    369.89   -23.4%     280.58   -26.8%      89.31  -10.1%    24.1%     360.7   635.3
49  12/10    322.48   -14.5%     243.85   -18.6%      78.63    1.5%    24.4%     624.8   535.6
48  12/3     229.49   -23.3%     173.97   -27.5%      55.52   -6.2%    24.2%     282.0   496.0
47  11/26    388.67   -12.4%     300.39   -16.5%      88.28    5.0%    22.7%     194.5   185.3
46  11/19    166.84   -14.3%     127.57   -18.0%      39.27    0.5%    23.5%      41.6   359.0
45  11/12    183.17     2.5%     128.95   -12.0%      54.22   68.3%    29.6%     422.9   251.3
44  11/5     167.53   -16.8%     117.59   -22.8%      49.94    2.0%    29.8%     335.6   414.9
43  10/29    147.15    11.2%      96.66   -11.3%      50.49  115.6%    33.6%     204.5   108.7
42  10/22    156.94     9.5%      95.94   -17.1%      61.00  120.8%    38.9%     370.0    56.0
41  10/15    152.92    -2.4%     106.50   -14.1%      46.42   42.2%    30.4%     343.3   233.0
40  10/8     183.79     9.3%     109.87    -9.4%      73.92   57.7%    40.2%     248.6   257.6

Q3 DEG      1742.79    -4.0%    1320.93   -14.7%     421.86   58.0%    24.2%
Q3 HMM      1667.09    -4.9%    1298.39   -13.9%     368.70   49.9%    22.1%    1806.3  1609.5										

39  10/1     152.58   -14.3%     109.97   -20.4%      42.61    7.1%    27.9%     352.1   382.7
38  9/24     153.60     5.0%     108.69   -12.5%      44.91  103.6%    29.2%     169.3   112.5
37  9/17     164.69    14.0%     107.37   -14.2%      57.32  197.2%    34.8%     190.8   165.2
36  9/10     128.84     0.0%     102.29   -10.5%      26.55   82.9%    20.6%     189.3    60.3
35  9/3      119.04    -9.5%     100.87   -13.7%      18.17   23.5%    15.3%      65.6    95.1
34  8/27     109.34   -13.1%      91.74   -16.6%      17.60   11.5%    16.1%      12.6    45.3
33  8/20     124.53    -4.4%     101.11   -12.8%      23.42   63.3%    18.8%     100.8    81.2
32  8/13     122.13    -1.8%      98.44    -9.5%      23.69   51.8%    19.4%     118.0   143.9
31  8/6      139.66     1.4%     111.78    -3.6%      27.88   27.9%    20.0%     189.8   133.5
30  7/30     108.78   -18.3%      89.06   -20.2%      19.72   -8.7%    18.1%      56.8   177.2
29  7/23     120.50    -1.9%      97.25    -9.4%      23.25   49.9%    19.3%      88.3    72.7
28  7/16     118.09    -4.8%      94.88   -13.5%      23.21   61.7%    19.7%     267.8    94.7
27  7/9      105.31   -16.7%      84.94   -22.7%      20.37   22.9%    19.3%       5.1    45.2										
		
Q2 DEG      1831      -15.0%    1434      -18.8%     397       9.4%    21.7%
Q2 HMM      1791.55   -12.2%    1402.94   -16.7%     388.61    9.1%    21.7%    2314.8  2422.0

26  7/2      127.11   -12.3%      96.32   -21.6%      30.79   39.4%    24.2%     102.3   181.4
25  6/25     123.25    -7.7%      98.18   -12.8%      25.07   20.1%    20.3%     205.4    85.8
24  6/18     149.89   -11.2%     114.68   -17.7%      35.21   19.5%    23.5%     208.2   142.8
23  6/11     130.81   -13.6%     103.23   -18.6%      27.58   12.3%    21.1%     305.0   152.6
22  6/4      118.16   -34.1%      96.17   -32.8%      21.99  -39.1%    18.6%      15.8   386.8
21  5/28     113.83   -16.6%      91.37   -22.9%      22.46   24.9%    19.7%     154.4    87.9
20  5/21     111.98   -15.2%      91.84   -18.9%      20.14    7.2%    18.0%      99.8   185.7
19  5/14     111.02   -23.6%      90.00   -26.8%      21.02   -6.2%    18.9%     155.6   113.6
18  5/7      122.05   -25.2%      99.74   -29.5%      22.31   -7.7%    18.3%     141.5   106.1
17  4/30     106.99   -40.6%      86.94   -39.6%      20.05  -44.5%    18.7%       0.0   120.5
16  4/23     217.30    -8.3%     171.47    -0.3%      45.83  -29.4%    21.1%     187.5   841.3
15  4/16     184.50    48.7%     134.40    24.8%      50.10  205.3%    27.2%     314.8     8.1
14  4/9      174.66    21.6%     128.60     5.9%      46.06  107.5%    26.5%     424.5     9.4
										
Q1 DEG      2068      -20.0%    1661      -25.0%     407      10.0%    19.7%		
Q1 HMM      2020.45   -23.2%    1626.20   -28.4%     394.25    9.4%    19.5%    2116.5  2857.2

13  4/2      192.11   -36.0%     144.16   -44.6%      47.95   20.1%    25.0%     300.9   461.1
12  3/26     135.54   -49.8%     110.21   -50.9%      25.33  -44.1%    18.7%     218.0   335.6
11  3/19     138.72   -46.5%     112.58   -49.6%      26.14  -27.1%    18.8%     154.2   534.3
10  3/12     146.96   -24.4%     116.11   -30.8%      30.85   16.5%    21.0%     177.0   247.2
9   3/5      174.59    -7.2%     132.93   -15.4%      41.66   34.1%    23.9%     112.3   258.8
8   2/26     160.96     4.5%     130.35    -2.5%      30.61   50.7%    19.0%     258.0    74.9
7   2/19     172.68    -8.1%     143.99   -12.7%      28.69   25.0%    16.6%      86.2    80.1
6   2/12     172.00   -19.4%     145.34   -23.1%      26.66    8.9%    15.5%     224.0   211.0
5   2/5      158.26   -16.7%     131.08   -20.8%      27.18   11.1%    17.2%      23.0   114.6
4   1/29     151.21   -14.6%     122.05   -20.9%      29.16   27.6%    19.3%     201.2   151.6
3   1/22     131.62   -16.3%     107.98   -21.0%      23.64   14.8%    18.0%      60.7    61.0
2   1/15     135.49   -17.3%     108.51   -23.9%      26.98   27.0%    19.9%     143.3   137.8
1   1/8      150.31   -14.1%     120.91   -19.5%      29.40   18.6%    19.6%     157.7   189.2

OD = optical disc (DVD + Blu-ray)
YoY = year over year percentage change
TBO = total box office
BD = Blu-ray

hat tip bruceames

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by PSound

Let's see what happens when BO normalizes and we don't have new blockbuster release beating catalog in a small sample size.

Until then I am skeptical.

(Cue 6 paragraph PR response in 3, 2, 1....)

Hell, I'm skeptical right now that this can be sustained.

The Total Box Office figure is actually quite close through 7 weeks with only about a $139 M difference in the HMM stats (bruceames's slightly different). Obviously the Twilight Saga movie makes a big impact at this time of the year. I have it 15.6% up TBO YoY in the HMM figures.

But just like Avatar and Twilight movies in 2010 affected the 2011 to 2010 comparisons the other direction, the better release(s) are helping the 2012 to 2011 comparisons now.

But there is not a real lot between now and September that can really depress the stats once we get past the first couple weeks of the 2Q 2011 comparison period so its off to a good start this year.

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by Malanthius

How does DVD go up when there is a new and improved format that has been on the market for 5 years?

Strength of Releases.

Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 1 obviously sells a lot of DVDs.

Plus other DVD friendly genre titles like Courageous and others we have talked about.

[PSound]

Originally Posted by Kosty

Hell, I'm skeptical right now that this can be sustained.

The Total Box Office figure is actually quite close through 7 weeks with only about a $139 M difference in the HMM stats (bruceames's slightly different). Obviously the Twilight Saga movie makes a big impact at this time of the year. I have it 15.6% up TBO YoY in the HMM figures.

But just like Avatar and Twilight movies in 2010 affected the 2011 to 2010 comparisons the other direction, the better release(s) are helping the 2012 to 2011 comparisons now.

But there is not a real lot between now and September that can really depress the stats once we get past the first couple weeks of the 2Q 2011 comparison period so its off to a good start this year.

15.6% is not a trivial BO lead-in difference.

And there are some major differences to come. Namely Q3 without Star Wars catalog release.

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by Malanthius

How does DVD go up when there is a new and improved format that has been on the market for 5 years?

Originally Posted by bruceames

It's really odd Mal, an anomaly like Psound says. Blu-ray last year had a 19.7% average market share for Q1. So far this year it's only 3.8% higher, at 23.5%. It's like Blu-ray is constantly gnawing at DVD's share but never can really take a bite out of it.

The market share growth has been linear, but as new formats go, it should be exponential. At this rate it's going to be 2015 or even 2016 before Blu-ray overtakes DVD (on average overall, not for a single week or just in the top 20).

Blu-ray market share showing linear growth

The studios and retailers would not mind a bit if Blu-ray lagged a bit there in overtaking DVD if it meant that DVD revenues were higher for a longer period of time and declined less.

Blu-ray is already large and successful enough to be sustainable for the long term and its survival is long past doubt. So there is less of a push to force consumers to migrate to Blu-ray or encourage them to move to Blu-ray than in the format war days or its recent aftermath.

Sure there is an incentive to have consumers move to higher margin Blu-ray for many reasons including longer sustained sales for the high definition format, but a new release DVD sale is still high margin and any sales for DVD is still money to retailers and the studios.

Plus there is a thought that laggard DVD consumers that have not upgraded to Blu-ray yet may upgrade to Blu-ray in the future and in the more distant future might be laggard Blu-ray users when Blu-ray inevitably sees its decline over time.

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by PSound

15.6% is not a trivial BO lead-in difference.

And there are some major differences to come. Namely Q3 without Star Wars catalog release.

$140 M over seven weeks is $20 M per week. Perhaps 15.6% is not "trivial" by your definition but its hardly that dramatic. TBO is a rough indicator and only usually moves things a lot when the weekly differential is higher than that. Obviously a Twilight Sage movie in the mix is a major event that alters things no matter what the TBO difference. Same thing happened last year except in reverse.

The strength of releases is obviously a major factor and the late 3Q 2011 and early 4Q 2011 periods with Star Wars and other strong summer titles will be a much tougher comparison period. But this year will also have some strong titles as well including Titanic and this years summer blockbusters as well.

Should be interesting to see what happens.

[Kosty]

Below are the trending charts for the cumulative YoY metrics for Blu-ray and OD for this year with last years 2011 vs 2010 trendline in shadow for comparison purposes.

You can obviously see the effect Twilight: Breaking Dawn has on the metric just as you can see how the Twilight movies, Avatar and Alice in Wonderland had on the comparisons last year in the other direction.

The strength of the releases is an obvious factor in Blu-ray and OD's performance this year as well as last year.



Blu-ray and OD Cumulative Year Over Year Year to Date Trends Through Week Ending 02/12/12


Note: This is the highest these benchmarks have been since we have been keeping track of them. At the moment Blu-ray year to date is actually covering DVD attrition and the total DVD+Blu-ray = OD revenues for the year is positive for the first time in the historical data.

Obviously a result of the more favorable releases in the comparison period but still notable.







click for more

Spoiler:

[Kosty]

For context here is the Blu-ray revenue set as well.



Blu-ray Revenue Trends Week Ending 02/18/12





click for more

Spoiler:

[PSound]

Originally Posted by Kosty

Note: This is the highest these benchmarks have been since we have been keeping track of them. At the moment Blu-ray year to date is actually covering DVD attrition and the total DVD+Blu-ray = OD revenues for the year is positive for the first time in the historical data.

What we seeing is the same pattern that existed from the end of Q3 and beginning of Q4 2011, with odd release strength for the period mated with a strong catalog performer.

The difference right now is that there is not the existing scope of previous data in the reporting period to normalize the results.

Interesting phenomenon, but it will only be relevant to trending if it holds through the end of Q1 and Q2. If it does, then we will have a new trend.


At this point I would hazard that H1 BD growth will be sub 30%, and YTD end of Q3 will be sub 20%.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Kosty

$140 M over seven weeks is $20 M per week. Perhaps 15.6% is not "trivial" by your definition but its hardly that dramatic. TBO is a rough indicator and only usually moves things a lot when the weekly differential is higher than that. Obviously a Twilight Sage movie in the mix is a major event that alters things no matter what the TBO difference. Same thing happened last year except in reverse.

The strength of releases is obviously a major factor and the late 3Q 2011 and early 4Q 2011 periods with Star Wars and other strong summer titles will be a much tougher comparison period. But this year will also have some strong titles as well including Titanic and this years summer blockbusters as well.

Should be interesting to see what happens.

15.6% is what it is. And with it, OD is up nearly 1 percent. If box office were flat, then OD would be down perhaps 10 percent. It's a big difference, and not any less so then the Q1+Q2 2011 box office last year, which was made a big deal out of.