Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

[PSound]

Originally Posted by Kosty

That calculation is in error. See above.

Far more DVD and Blu-ray unit sales of all types of releases were sold in 2011 which would be the proper figure to use against the 2007 number.

The 2011 figure above I think is just movies to make the point against the use of UV to put it into perspective.

What is your estimate for the number of TV titles sold in 2011?

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by PSound

What is your estimate for the number of TV titles sold in 2011?

I would not want to hazard a guess at this time, but I do have the data uncompiled to make compare.

I have several sources for estimates for total DVD and total Blu-ray units for 2011 and 2010 that would include movies , TV shows and other releases. I have weekly estimates from several sources but I have not added them up. By subtracting them out I can find the other than theatrical movie estimates if I subtract out the IHS movie estimate. But that would be more than just TV units.

But at a glance its a lot more than just that movie estimate from Tom Adams. Unit sales did not decline anywhere near that much from 2007 to 2010 the last time I saw overall figures. DVD revenues from catalog sales have declined a lot but unit sales have not declined anywhere near that amount as its the decline in DVD catalog price points that's been the driving force in the decline in DVD catalog revenues over time, not the units.

[Kosty]

Week Ending 02/11/12

Originally Posted by bruceames

Updated thru week ending 2/11/12
Table of Blu-ray sales (HMM and DEG)
numbers are in (revenue) millions.
Weekly figures are from HMM (Home Media Magazine

2012 HMM     878.76    -2.7%     670.31    -9.3%     208.35   27.6%    23.7%    1024.5   810.0										
Week Date      OD     OD YoY      DVD    DVD YoY       BD    BD YoY  BD Share  TBO2012 TBO2011										

6   2/11     205.54    19.4%     151.09     3.1%      54.45  104.2%    26.5%     316.5   224.0
5   2/4      144.90    -8.6%     110.25   -16.0%      34.65   27.1%    23.9%     118.5    23.0
4   1/28     131.95   -13.6%      98.40   -20.2%      33.55   14.2%    25.4%     226.3   201.2
3   1/21     129.39    -2.4%     103.53    -4.9%      25.86    8.9%    20.0%     112.7    60.7
2   1/14     128.65    -5.1%     100.16    -7.7%      28.49    5.6%    22.1%     143.4   116.2
1   1/7      138.33    -8.0%     106.88   -11.6%      31.35    7.0%    22.7%     157.7   134.3

2011 DEG    8951.80   -13.2%    6851.80   -19.5%    2150.00   19.4%    24.0%    
2011 HMM    8604.20   -13.9%    6608.28   -20.3%    1995.92   17.7%    23.2%    9936.0 10820.9																			

Q4 DEG      3338.95   -11.0%    2464.81   -16.5%     924.14   15.5%    27.7%
Q4 HMM      3125.11   -12.4%    2280.75   -19.5%     844.36   15.1%    27.0%    3698.4  3932.2

52  12/31    174.13   -25.6%     130.29   -28.7%      43.84  -14.7%    25.2%      64.3    95.9
51  12/24    482.11   -13.1%     368.59   -16.9%     113.52    2.2%    23.5%     205.6   303.6
50  12/17    369.89   -23.4%     280.58   -26.8%      89.31  -10.1%    24.1%     360.7   635.3
49  12/10    322.48   -14.5%     243.85   -18.6%      78.63    1.5%    24.4%     624.8   535.6
48  12/3     229.49   -23.3%     173.97   -27.5%      55.52   -6.2%    24.2%     282.0   496.0
47  11/26    388.67   -12.4%     300.39   -16.5%      88.28    5.0%    22.7%     194.5   185.3
46  11/19    166.84   -14.3%     127.57   -18.0%      39.27    0.5%    23.5%      41.6   359.0
45  11/12    183.17     2.5%     128.95   -12.0%      54.22   68.3%    29.6%     422.9   251.3
44  11/5     167.53   -16.8%     117.59   -22.8%      49.94    2.0%    29.8%     335.6   414.9
43  10/29    147.15    11.2%      96.66   -11.3%      50.49  115.6%    33.6%     204.5   108.7
42  10/22    156.94     9.5%      95.94   -17.1%      61.00  120.8%    38.9%     370.0    56.0
41  10/15    152.92    -2.4%     106.50   -14.1%      46.42   42.2%    30.4%     343.3   233.0
40  10/8     183.79     9.3%     109.87    -9.4%      73.92   57.7%    40.2%     248.6   257.6

Q3 DEG      1742.79    -4.0%    1320.93   -14.7%     421.86   58.0%    24.2%
Q3 HMM      1667.09    -4.9%    1298.39   -13.9%     368.70   49.9%    22.1%    1806.3  1609.5										

39  10/1     152.58   -14.3%     109.97   -20.4%      42.61    7.1%    27.9%     352.1   382.7
38  9/24     153.60     5.0%     108.69   -12.5%      44.91  103.6%    29.2%     169.3   112.5
37  9/17     164.69    14.0%     107.37   -14.2%      57.32  197.2%    34.8%     190.8   165.2
36  9/10     128.84     0.0%     102.29   -10.5%      26.55   82.9%    20.6%     189.3    60.3
35  9/3      119.04    -9.5%     100.87   -13.7%      18.17   23.5%    15.3%      65.6    95.1
34  8/27     109.34   -13.1%      91.74   -16.6%      17.60   11.5%    16.1%      12.6    45.3
33  8/20     124.53    -4.4%     101.11   -12.8%      23.42   63.3%    18.8%     100.8    81.2
32  8/13     122.13    -1.8%      98.44    -9.5%      23.69   51.8%    19.4%     118.0   143.9
31  8/6      139.66     1.4%     111.78    -3.6%      27.88   27.9%    20.0%     189.8   133.5
30  7/30     108.78   -18.3%      89.06   -20.2%      19.72   -8.7%    18.1%      56.8   177.2
29  7/23     120.50    -1.9%      97.25    -9.4%      23.25   49.9%    19.3%      88.3    72.7
28  7/16     118.09    -4.8%      94.88   -13.5%      23.21   61.7%    19.7%     267.8    94.7
27  7/9      105.31   -16.7%      84.94   -22.7%      20.37   22.9%    19.3%       5.1    45.2										
		
Q2 DEG      1831      -15.0%    1434      -18.8%     397       9.4%    21.7%
Q2 HMM      1791.55   -12.2%    1402.94   -16.7%     388.61    9.1%    21.7%    2314.8  2422.0

26  7/2      127.11   -12.3%      96.32   -21.6%      30.79   39.4%    24.2%     102.3   181.4
25  6/25     123.25    -7.7%      98.18   -12.8%      25.07   20.1%    20.3%     205.4    85.8
24  6/18     149.89   -11.2%     114.68   -17.7%      35.21   19.5%    23.5%     208.2   142.8
23  6/11     130.81   -13.6%     103.23   -18.6%      27.58   12.3%    21.1%     305.0   152.6
22  6/4      118.16   -34.1%      96.17   -32.8%      21.99  -39.1%    18.6%      15.8   386.8
21  5/28     113.83   -16.6%      91.37   -22.9%      22.46   24.9%    19.7%     154.4    87.9
20  5/21     111.98   -15.2%      91.84   -18.9%      20.14    7.2%    18.0%      99.8   185.7
19  5/14     111.02   -23.6%      90.00   -26.8%      21.02   -6.2%    18.9%     155.6   113.6
18  5/7      122.05   -25.2%      99.74   -29.5%      22.31   -7.7%    18.3%     141.5   106.1
17  4/30     106.99   -40.6%      86.94   -39.6%      20.05  -44.5%    18.7%       0.0   120.5
16  4/23     217.30    -8.3%     171.47    -0.3%      45.83  -29.4%    21.1%     187.5   841.3
15  4/16     184.50    48.7%     134.40    24.8%      50.10  205.3%    27.2%     314.8     8.1
14  4/9      174.66    21.6%     128.60     5.9%      46.06  107.5%    26.5%     424.5     9.4
										
Q1 DEG      2068      -20.0%    1661      -25.0%     407      10.0%    19.7%		
Q1 HMM      2020.45   -23.2%    1626.20   -28.4%     394.25    9.4%    19.5%    2116.5  2857.2

13  4/2      192.11   -36.0%     144.16   -44.6%      47.95   20.1%    25.0%     300.9   461.1
12  3/26     135.54   -49.8%     110.21   -50.9%      25.33  -44.1%    18.7%     218.0   335.6
11  3/19     138.72   -46.5%     112.58   -49.6%      26.14  -27.1%    18.8%     154.2   534.3
10  3/12     146.96   -24.4%     116.11   -30.8%      30.85   16.5%    21.0%     177.0   247.2
9   3/5      174.59    -7.2%     132.93   -15.4%      41.66   34.1%    23.9%     112.3   258.8
8   2/26     160.96     4.5%     130.35    -2.5%      30.61   50.7%    19.0%     258.0    74.9
7   2/19     172.68    -8.1%     143.99   -12.7%      28.69   25.0%    16.6%      86.2    80.1
6   2/12     172.00   -19.4%     145.34   -23.1%      26.66    8.9%    15.5%     224.0   211.0
5   2/5      158.26   -16.7%     131.08   -20.8%      27.18   11.1%    17.2%      23.0   114.6
4   1/29     151.21   -14.6%     122.05   -20.9%      29.16   27.6%    19.3%     201.2   151.6
3   1/22     131.62   -16.3%     107.98   -21.0%      23.64   14.8%    18.0%      60.7    61.0
2   1/15     135.49   -17.3%     108.51   -23.9%      26.98   27.0%    19.9%     143.3   137.8
1   1/8      150.31   -14.1%     120.91   -19.5%      29.40   18.6%    19.6%     157.7   189.2

OD = optical disc (DVD + Blu-ray)
YoY = year over year percentage change
TBO = total box office
BD = Blu-ray

[bruceames]

Top 20 HMM/Nielsen charts are up, with Twilight #1 on both the OD and BD top 20. Not because Twilight did so well in week 2, but because it was a slow week, with really nothing new that was noteworthy.

Actually considering it was a Saturday release, Twilight suffered heavy attrition in week 2. Last week it sold 3.2 million on both format for the 2 day period, and today Lionsgate announces that it has reached the 5 million mark. I don't know if that's through yesterday or through the end of last week (Sunday), but it's more likely to be the latter.

If so, that gives 1.8 million week two sales, of which 24% were Blu-ray, or, 432k units. Applying that to this weeks Blu-ray ratios show 62% fewer top 20 units being sold this week vs. last. So it should be a slow week for Blu-ray in spite of week 2 Twilight + Lady and the Tramp (which suffered 78% attrition, which is close to normal for high selling Blu-ray titles).

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-021912

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-021912

[Kosty]

Just note that the HMM revenue figures for the week ending Saturday 2/18/12 will include the first Sunday, 2nd day of release figures of Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 1 that occurred in the Sun-Sat HMM revenue reporting range. The HMM revenue figures for WE 2/11/12 only included the Friday midnight parties and Saturday sales of TBD P1 in its range last week.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Kosty

Just note that the HMM revenue figures for the week ending Saturday 2/18/12 will include the first Sunday, 2nd day of release figures of Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 1 that occurred in the Sun-Sat HMM revenue reporting range. The HMM revenue figures for WE 2/11/12 only included the Friday midnight parties and Saturday sales of TBD P1 in its range last week.

True, next weeks figures will include day 2 Twilight and day 6 Tramp, although most of Twilight's sales were undoubtedly on that first day, and likewise for Tramp, with the vast majority occurring before Sunday.

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by bruceames

True, next weeks figures will include day 2 Twilight and day 6 Tramp, although most of Twilight's sales were undoubtedly on that first day, and likewise for Tramp, with the vast majority occurring before Sunday.

More were certainly on Friday midnight and Saturday but a lot were on Sunday too. Tramp would also have good Sunday weekend sales as family orientated titles always do well on Sunday during normal family Walmart shopping trips as well and that gets into the HMM revenue and The-Numbers estimates even if its not captured in the Nielsen Videoscan first alert POS census data.

02/19/11 was $143.99 DVD and $28.69 Blu-ray last year so even a modest carryover into week 2 will make a good showing.

[mikemorel]

Originally Posted by Kosty

One quote is movie only sales to compare physical movie sales with the scale of UV movie sales. The other quote is talking about movies and TV shows etc.

If true, then why would Tom Adams go to the trouble of breaking out 504 million "Movie" discs sold from television show discs?

It doesn't have anything whatsoever to do with his point; TV shows have already been brought out on Ultraviolet. He is comparing apples and oranges.

[Kosty]

Week Ending 2/18/12

First full week of Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 1











http://www.homemediamagazine.com/mar...k-ended-021812

[Kosty]

This week also included the first Sunday for Twilight as well as the full week.

It does seem that Lady and the Tramp did good Sunday and second week sales as well.

Working on some charts now.

Amazingly enough, Blu-ray through 7 weeks in is around +32.69% up YoY YTD and actually for the moment has fully covered DVDs attrition as current DVD+BD=OD year over year percentage is by my initial calculations up +0.93%.

I think that's the first time since I have been doing the cumulative year over year year to date calculations that at any time that Blu-ray's growth has ever fully covered DVDs attrition.

Obviously that's a result of Twilight being in the mix this year, but that was the opposite situation last year without a Twilight movie in 2011 but one in 2010.

Still its a nice benchmark to see.

[Kosty]

Blu-ray was up +61.70%, DVD was up +10.40% and Total OD was up +18.92% this week despite the TBO being down -82.30% with only a TBO of $16 M for the week obviously because of the strong second week sales of last weeks releases.

Their carryover was strong enough to fully offset the much stronger $91 M for the 2011 matching week.

[Kosty]

A lot depends on how the summer releases will do but it really seems that 2012 is off to a much better start for home video and Blu-ray than we saw for last year.

There is not a whole lot between now and September in the 2010 weekly stats that is going to knock down the YoY cumulative statistics by a lot. Only the few good weeks at the start of 2Q 2011. Based on the releases coming up later in the 1Q 2012 and early 2Q 2012 they should be pretty competitive.

Spoiler:

[Kosty]

By my initial calculations, through 07/52 weeks Blu-ray is around +32.69% up YoY YTD cumulatively.

DVD+BD=OD cumulative year over year is +0.93%. Positive in that benchmark for the first time ever.

Much better start to 2012 than we saw at this time last year.

[PSound]

Let's see what happens when BO normalizes and we don't have new blockbuster release beating catalog in a small sample size.

Until then I am skeptical.

(Cue 6 paragraph PR response in 3, 2, 1....)

[bruceames]

Updated thru week ending 2/18/12
Table of Blu-ray sales (HMM and DEG)
numbers are in (revenue) millions.
Weekly figures are from HMM (Home Media Magazine

2012 HMM    1085.91     0.8%     830.69    -6.1%     255.12   32.7%    23.5%    1040.9   896.2										
Week Date      OD     OD YoY      DVD    DVD YoY       BD    BD YoY  BD Share  TBO2012 TBO2011										

7   2/18     207.15    18.9%     160.38    10.4%      46.77   61.7%    22.6%      16.4    86.2
6   2/11     205.54    19.4%     151.09     3.1%      54.45  104.2%    26.5%     316.5   224.0
5   2/4      144.90    -8.6%     110.25   -16.0%      34.65   27.1%    23.9%     118.5    23.0
4   1/28     131.95   -13.6%      98.40   -20.2%      33.55   14.2%    25.4%     226.3   201.2
3   1/21     129.39    -2.4%     103.53    -4.9%      25.86    8.9%    20.0%     112.7    60.7
2   1/14     128.65    -5.1%     100.16    -7.7%      28.49    5.6%    22.1%     143.4   116.2
1   1/7      138.33    -8.0%     106.88   -11.6%      31.35    7.0%    22.7%     157.7   134.3

2011 DEG    8951.80   -13.2%    6851.80   -19.5%    2150.00   19.4%    24.0%    
2011 HMM    8604.20   -13.9%    6608.28   -20.3%    1995.92   17.7%    23.2%    9936.0 10820.9																			

Q4 DEG      3338.95   -11.0%    2464.81   -16.5%     924.14   15.5%    27.7%
Q4 HMM      3125.11   -12.4%    2280.75   -19.5%     844.36   15.1%    27.0%    3698.4  3932.2

52  12/31    174.13   -25.6%     130.29   -28.7%      43.84  -14.7%    25.2%      64.3    95.9
51  12/24    482.11   -13.1%     368.59   -16.9%     113.52    2.2%    23.5%     205.6   303.6
50  12/17    369.89   -23.4%     280.58   -26.8%      89.31  -10.1%    24.1%     360.7   635.3
49  12/10    322.48   -14.5%     243.85   -18.6%      78.63    1.5%    24.4%     624.8   535.6
48  12/3     229.49   -23.3%     173.97   -27.5%      55.52   -6.2%    24.2%     282.0   496.0
47  11/26    388.67   -12.4%     300.39   -16.5%      88.28    5.0%    22.7%     194.5   185.3
46  11/19    166.84   -14.3%     127.57   -18.0%      39.27    0.5%    23.5%      41.6   359.0
45  11/12    183.17     2.5%     128.95   -12.0%      54.22   68.3%    29.6%     422.9   251.3
44  11/5     167.53   -16.8%     117.59   -22.8%      49.94    2.0%    29.8%     335.6   414.9
43  10/29    147.15    11.2%      96.66   -11.3%      50.49  115.6%    33.6%     204.5   108.7
42  10/22    156.94     9.5%      95.94   -17.1%      61.00  120.8%    38.9%     370.0    56.0
41  10/15    152.92    -2.4%     106.50   -14.1%      46.42   42.2%    30.4%     343.3   233.0
40  10/8     183.79     9.3%     109.87    -9.4%      73.92   57.7%    40.2%     248.6   257.6

Q3 DEG      1742.79    -4.0%    1320.93   -14.7%     421.86   58.0%    24.2%
Q3 HMM      1667.09    -4.9%    1298.39   -13.9%     368.70   49.9%    22.1%    1806.3  1609.5										

39  10/1     152.58   -14.3%     109.97   -20.4%      42.61    7.1%    27.9%     352.1   382.7
38  9/24     153.60     5.0%     108.69   -12.5%      44.91  103.6%    29.2%     169.3   112.5
37  9/17     164.69    14.0%     107.37   -14.2%      57.32  197.2%    34.8%     190.8   165.2
36  9/10     128.84     0.0%     102.29   -10.5%      26.55   82.9%    20.6%     189.3    60.3
35  9/3      119.04    -9.5%     100.87   -13.7%      18.17   23.5%    15.3%      65.6    95.1
34  8/27     109.34   -13.1%      91.74   -16.6%      17.60   11.5%    16.1%      12.6    45.3
33  8/20     124.53    -4.4%     101.11   -12.8%      23.42   63.3%    18.8%     100.8    81.2
32  8/13     122.13    -1.8%      98.44    -9.5%      23.69   51.8%    19.4%     118.0   143.9
31  8/6      139.66     1.4%     111.78    -3.6%      27.88   27.9%    20.0%     189.8   133.5
30  7/30     108.78   -18.3%      89.06   -20.2%      19.72   -8.7%    18.1%      56.8   177.2
29  7/23     120.50    -1.9%      97.25    -9.4%      23.25   49.9%    19.3%      88.3    72.7
28  7/16     118.09    -4.8%      94.88   -13.5%      23.21   61.7%    19.7%     267.8    94.7
27  7/9      105.31   -16.7%      84.94   -22.7%      20.37   22.9%    19.3%       5.1    45.2										
		
Q2 DEG      1831      -15.0%    1434      -18.8%     397       9.4%    21.7%
Q2 HMM      1791.55   -12.2%    1402.94   -16.7%     388.61    9.1%    21.7%    2314.8  2422.0

26  7/2      127.11   -12.3%      96.32   -21.6%      30.79   39.4%    24.2%     102.3   181.4
25  6/25     123.25    -7.7%      98.18   -12.8%      25.07   20.1%    20.3%     205.4    85.8
24  6/18     149.89   -11.2%     114.68   -17.7%      35.21   19.5%    23.5%     208.2   142.8
23  6/11     130.81   -13.6%     103.23   -18.6%      27.58   12.3%    21.1%     305.0   152.6
22  6/4      118.16   -34.1%      96.17   -32.8%      21.99  -39.1%    18.6%      15.8   386.8
21  5/28     113.83   -16.6%      91.37   -22.9%      22.46   24.9%    19.7%     154.4    87.9
20  5/21     111.98   -15.2%      91.84   -18.9%      20.14    7.2%    18.0%      99.8   185.7
19  5/14     111.02   -23.6%      90.00   -26.8%      21.02   -6.2%    18.9%     155.6   113.6
18  5/7      122.05   -25.2%      99.74   -29.5%      22.31   -7.7%    18.3%     141.5   106.1
17  4/30     106.99   -40.6%      86.94   -39.6%      20.05  -44.5%    18.7%       0.0   120.5
16  4/23     217.30    -8.3%     171.47    -0.3%      45.83  -29.4%    21.1%     187.5   841.3
15  4/16     184.50    48.7%     134.40    24.8%      50.10  205.3%    27.2%     314.8     8.1
14  4/9      174.66    21.6%     128.60     5.9%      46.06  107.5%    26.5%     424.5     9.4
										
Q1 DEG      2068      -20.0%    1661      -25.0%     407      10.0%    19.7%		
Q1 HMM      2020.45   -23.2%    1626.20   -28.4%     394.25    9.4%    19.5%    2116.5  2857.2

13  4/2      192.11   -36.0%     144.16   -44.6%      47.95   20.1%    25.0%     300.9   461.1
12  3/26     135.54   -49.8%     110.21   -50.9%      25.33  -44.1%    18.7%     218.0   335.6
11  3/19     138.72   -46.5%     112.58   -49.6%      26.14  -27.1%    18.8%     154.2   534.3
10  3/12     146.96   -24.4%     116.11   -30.8%      30.85   16.5%    21.0%     177.0   247.2
9   3/5      174.59    -7.2%     132.93   -15.4%      41.66   34.1%    23.9%     112.3   258.8
8   2/26     160.96     4.5%     130.35    -2.5%      30.61   50.7%    19.0%     258.0    74.9
7   2/19     172.68    -8.1%     143.99   -12.7%      28.69   25.0%    16.6%      86.2    80.1
6   2/12     172.00   -19.4%     145.34   -23.1%      26.66    8.9%    15.5%     224.0   211.0
5   2/5      158.26   -16.7%     131.08   -20.8%      27.18   11.1%    17.2%      23.0   114.6
4   1/29     151.21   -14.6%     122.05   -20.9%      29.16   27.6%    19.3%     201.2   151.6
3   1/22     131.62   -16.3%     107.98   -21.0%      23.64   14.8%    18.0%      60.7    61.0
2   1/15     135.49   -17.3%     108.51   -23.9%      26.98   27.0%    19.9%     143.3   137.8
1   1/8      150.31   -14.1%     120.91   -19.5%      29.40   18.6%    19.6%     157.7   189.2

OD = optical disc (DVD + Blu-ray)
YoY = year over year percentage change
TBO = total box office
BD = Blu-ray