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Old 02-21-2012, 06:54 PM   #1651
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Updated thru week ending 2/11/12
Table of Blu-ray sales (HMM and DEG)
numbers are in (revenue) millions.
Weekly figures are from HMM (Home Media Magazine

Code:
2012 HMM     878.76    -2.7%     670.31    -9.3%     208.35   27.6%    23.7%    1024.5   810.0										
Week Date      OD     OD YoY      DVD    DVD YoY       BD    BD YoY  BD Share  TBO2012 TBO2011										

6   2/11     205.54    19.4%     151.09     3.1%      54.45  104.2%    26.5%     316.5   224.0
5   2/4      144.90    -8.6%     110.25   -16.0%      34.65   27.1%    23.9%     118.5    23.0
4   1/28     131.95   -13.6%      98.40   -20.2%      33.55   14.2%    25.4%     226.3   201.2
3   1/21     129.39    -2.4%     103.53    -4.9%      25.86    8.9%    20.0%     112.7    60.7
2   1/14     128.65    -5.1%     100.16    -7.7%      28.49    5.6%    22.1%     143.4   116.2
1   1/7      138.33    -8.0%     106.88   -11.6%      31.35    7.0%    22.7%     157.7   134.3

2011 DEG    8951.80   -13.2%    6851.80   -19.5%    2150.00   19.4%    24.0%    
2011 HMM    8604.20   -13.9%    6608.28   -20.3%    1995.92   17.7%    23.2%    9936.0 10820.9																			

Q4 DEG      3338.95   -11.0%    2464.81   -16.5%     924.14   15.5%    27.7%
Q4 HMM      3125.11   -12.4%    2280.75   -19.5%     844.36   15.1%    27.0%    3698.4  3932.2

52  12/31    174.13   -25.6%     130.29   -28.7%      43.84  -14.7%    25.2%      64.3    95.9
51  12/24    482.11   -13.1%     368.59   -16.9%     113.52    2.2%    23.5%     205.6   303.6
50  12/17    369.89   -23.4%     280.58   -26.8%      89.31  -10.1%    24.1%     360.7   635.3
49  12/10    322.48   -14.5%     243.85   -18.6%      78.63    1.5%    24.4%     624.8   535.6
48  12/3     229.49   -23.3%     173.97   -27.5%      55.52   -6.2%    24.2%     282.0   496.0
47  11/26    388.67   -12.4%     300.39   -16.5%      88.28    5.0%    22.7%     194.5   185.3
46  11/19    166.84   -14.3%     127.57   -18.0%      39.27    0.5%    23.5%      41.6   359.0
45  11/12    183.17     2.5%     128.95   -12.0%      54.22   68.3%    29.6%     422.9   251.3
44  11/5     167.53   -16.8%     117.59   -22.8%      49.94    2.0%    29.8%     335.6   414.9
43  10/29    147.15    11.2%      96.66   -11.3%      50.49  115.6%    33.6%     204.5   108.7
42  10/22    156.94     9.5%      95.94   -17.1%      61.00  120.8%    38.9%     370.0    56.0
41  10/15    152.92    -2.4%     106.50   -14.1%      46.42   42.2%    30.4%     343.3   233.0
40  10/8     183.79     9.3%     109.87    -9.4%      73.92   57.7%    40.2%     248.6   257.6

Q3 DEG      1742.79    -4.0%    1320.93   -14.7%     421.86   58.0%    24.2%
Q3 HMM      1667.09    -4.9%    1298.39   -13.9%     368.70   49.9%    22.1%    1806.3  1609.5										

39  10/1     152.58   -14.3%     109.97   -20.4%      42.61    7.1%    27.9%     352.1   382.7
38  9/24     153.60     5.0%     108.69   -12.5%      44.91  103.6%    29.2%     169.3   112.5
37  9/17     164.69    14.0%     107.37   -14.2%      57.32  197.2%    34.8%     190.8   165.2
36  9/10     128.84     0.0%     102.29   -10.5%      26.55   82.9%    20.6%     189.3    60.3
35  9/3      119.04    -9.5%     100.87   -13.7%      18.17   23.5%    15.3%      65.6    95.1
34  8/27     109.34   -13.1%      91.74   -16.6%      17.60   11.5%    16.1%      12.6    45.3
33  8/20     124.53    -4.4%     101.11   -12.8%      23.42   63.3%    18.8%     100.8    81.2
32  8/13     122.13    -1.8%      98.44    -9.5%      23.69   51.8%    19.4%     118.0   143.9
31  8/6      139.66     1.4%     111.78    -3.6%      27.88   27.9%    20.0%     189.8   133.5
30  7/30     108.78   -18.3%      89.06   -20.2%      19.72   -8.7%    18.1%      56.8   177.2
29  7/23     120.50    -1.9%      97.25    -9.4%      23.25   49.9%    19.3%      88.3    72.7
28  7/16     118.09    -4.8%      94.88   -13.5%      23.21   61.7%    19.7%     267.8    94.7
27  7/9      105.31   -16.7%      84.94   -22.7%      20.37   22.9%    19.3%       5.1    45.2										
		
Q2 DEG      1831      -15.0%    1434      -18.8%     397       9.4%    21.7%
Q2 HMM      1791.55   -12.2%    1402.94   -16.7%     388.61    9.1%    21.7%    2314.8  2422.0

26  7/2      127.11   -12.3%      96.32   -21.6%      30.79   39.4%    24.2%     102.3   181.4
25  6/25     123.25    -7.7%      98.18   -12.8%      25.07   20.1%    20.3%     205.4    85.8
24  6/18     149.89   -11.2%     114.68   -17.7%      35.21   19.5%    23.5%     208.2   142.8
23  6/11     130.81   -13.6%     103.23   -18.6%      27.58   12.3%    21.1%     305.0   152.6
22  6/4      118.16   -34.1%      96.17   -32.8%      21.99  -39.1%    18.6%      15.8   386.8
21  5/28     113.83   -16.6%      91.37   -22.9%      22.46   24.9%    19.7%     154.4    87.9
20  5/21     111.98   -15.2%      91.84   -18.9%      20.14    7.2%    18.0%      99.8   185.7
19  5/14     111.02   -23.6%      90.00   -26.8%      21.02   -6.2%    18.9%     155.6   113.6
18  5/7      122.05   -25.2%      99.74   -29.5%      22.31   -7.7%    18.3%     141.5   106.1
17  4/30     106.99   -40.6%      86.94   -39.6%      20.05  -44.5%    18.7%       0.0   120.5
16  4/23     217.30    -8.3%     171.47    -0.3%      45.83  -29.4%    21.1%     187.5   841.3
15  4/16     184.50    48.7%     134.40    24.8%      50.10  205.3%    27.2%     314.8     8.1
14  4/9      174.66    21.6%     128.60     5.9%      46.06  107.5%    26.5%     424.5     9.4
										
Q1 DEG      2068      -20.0%    1661      -25.0%     407      10.0%    19.7%		
Q1 HMM      2020.45   -23.2%    1626.20   -28.4%     394.25    9.4%    19.5%    2116.5  2857.2

13  4/2      192.11   -36.0%     144.16   -44.6%      47.95   20.1%    25.0%     300.9   461.1
12  3/26     135.54   -49.8%     110.21   -50.9%      25.33  -44.1%    18.7%     218.0   335.6
11  3/19     138.72   -46.5%     112.58   -49.6%      26.14  -27.1%    18.8%     154.2   534.3
10  3/12     146.96   -24.4%     116.11   -30.8%      30.85   16.5%    21.0%     177.0   247.2
9   3/5      174.59    -7.2%     132.93   -15.4%      41.66   34.1%    23.9%     112.3   258.8
8   2/26     160.96     4.5%     130.35    -2.5%      30.61   50.7%    19.0%     258.0    74.9
7   2/19     172.68    -8.1%     143.99   -12.7%      28.69   25.0%    16.6%      86.2    80.1
6   2/12     172.00   -19.4%     145.34   -23.1%      26.66    8.9%    15.5%     224.0   211.0
5   2/5      158.26   -16.7%     131.08   -20.8%      27.18   11.1%    17.2%      23.0   114.6
4   1/29     151.21   -14.6%     122.05   -20.9%      29.16   27.6%    19.3%     201.2   151.6
3   1/22     131.62   -16.3%     107.98   -21.0%      23.64   14.8%    18.0%      60.7    61.0
2   1/15     135.49   -17.3%     108.51   -23.9%      26.98   27.0%    19.9%     143.3   137.8
1   1/8      150.31   -14.1%     120.91   -19.5%      29.40   18.6%    19.6%     157.7   189.2

OD = optical disc (DVD + Blu-ray)
YoY = year over year percentage change
TBO = total box office
BD = Blu-ray

Last edited by bruceames; 02-21-2012 at 08:07 PM.
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Old 02-21-2012, 07:16 PM   #1652
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It is nice to see DVD down only single digits, and to see OD only down a few percentage. I am not sure if that is sustainable, but I am guessing no one at the studios is complaining.


Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Updated thru week ending 2/4/12
Table of Blu-ray sales (HMM and DEG)
numbers are in (revenue) millions.
Weekly figures are from HMM (Home Media Magazine

Code:
2012 HMM     878.76    -2.7%     670.31    -9.3%     208.35   27.6%    23.7%    1024.5   810.0										
Week Date      OD     OD YoY      DVD    DVD YoY       BD    BD YoY  BD Share  TBO2012 TBO2011										

6   2/11     205.54    19.4%     151.09     3.1%      54.45  104.2%    26.5%     316.5   224.0
5   2/4      144.90    -8.6%     110.25   -16.0%      34.65   27.1%    23.9%     118.5    23.0
4   1/28     131.95   -13.6%      98.40   -20.2%      33.55   14.2%    25.4%     226.3   201.2
3   1/21     129.39    -2.4%     103.53    -4.9%      25.86    8.9%    20.0%     112.7    60.7
2   1/14     128.65    -5.1%     100.16    -7.7%      28.49    5.6%    22.1%     143.4   116.2
1   1/7      138.33    -8.0%     106.88   -11.6%      31.35    7.0%    22.7%     157.7   134.3

2011 DEG    8951.80   -13.2%    6851.80   -19.5%    2150.00   19.4%    24.0%    
2011 HMM    8604.20   -13.9%    6608.28   -20.3%    1995.92   17.7%    23.2%    9936.0 10820.9																			

Q4 DEG      3338.95   -11.0%    2464.81   -16.5%     924.14   15.5%    27.7%
Q4 HMM      3125.11   -12.4%    2280.75   -19.5%     844.36   15.1%    27.0%    3698.4  3932.2

52  12/31    174.13   -25.6%     130.29   -28.7%      43.84  -14.7%    25.2%      64.3    95.9
51  12/24    482.11   -13.1%     368.59   -16.9%     113.52    2.2%    23.5%     205.6   303.6
50  12/17    369.89   -23.4%     280.58   -26.8%      89.31  -10.1%    24.1%     360.7   635.3
49  12/10    322.48   -14.5%     243.85   -18.6%      78.63    1.5%    24.4%     624.8   535.6
48  12/3     229.49   -23.3%     173.97   -27.5%      55.52   -6.2%    24.2%     282.0   496.0
47  11/26    388.67   -12.4%     300.39   -16.5%      88.28    5.0%    22.7%     194.5   185.3
46  11/19    166.84   -14.3%     127.57   -18.0%      39.27    0.5%    23.5%      41.6   359.0
45  11/12    183.17     2.5%     128.95   -12.0%      54.22   68.3%    29.6%     422.9   251.3
44  11/5     167.53   -16.8%     117.59   -22.8%      49.94    2.0%    29.8%     335.6   414.9
43  10/29    147.15    11.2%      96.66   -11.3%      50.49  115.6%    33.6%     204.5   108.7
42  10/22    156.94     9.5%      95.94   -17.1%      61.00  120.8%    38.9%     370.0    56.0
41  10/15    152.92    -2.4%     106.50   -14.1%      46.42   42.2%    30.4%     343.3   233.0
40  10/8     183.79     9.3%     109.87    -9.4%      73.92   57.7%    40.2%     248.6   257.6

Q3 DEG      1742.79    -4.0%    1320.93   -14.7%     421.86   58.0%    24.2%
Q3 HMM      1667.09    -4.9%    1298.39   -13.9%     368.70   49.9%    22.1%    1806.3  1609.5										

39  10/1     152.58   -14.3%     109.97   -20.4%      42.61    7.1%    27.9%     352.1   382.7
38  9/24     153.60     5.0%     108.69   -12.5%      44.91  103.6%    29.2%     169.3   112.5
37  9/17     164.69    14.0%     107.37   -14.2%      57.32  197.2%    34.8%     190.8   165.2
36  9/10     128.84     0.0%     102.29   -10.5%      26.55   82.9%    20.6%     189.3    60.3
35  9/3      119.04    -9.5%     100.87   -13.7%      18.17   23.5%    15.3%      65.6    95.1
34  8/27     109.34   -13.1%      91.74   -16.6%      17.60   11.5%    16.1%      12.6    45.3
33  8/20     124.53    -4.4%     101.11   -12.8%      23.42   63.3%    18.8%     100.8    81.2
32  8/13     122.13    -1.8%      98.44    -9.5%      23.69   51.8%    19.4%     118.0   143.9
31  8/6      139.66     1.4%     111.78    -3.6%      27.88   27.9%    20.0%     189.8   133.5
30  7/30     108.78   -18.3%      89.06   -20.2%      19.72   -8.7%    18.1%      56.8   177.2
29  7/23     120.50    -1.9%      97.25    -9.4%      23.25   49.9%    19.3%      88.3    72.7
28  7/16     118.09    -4.8%      94.88   -13.5%      23.21   61.7%    19.7%     267.8    94.7
27  7/9      105.31   -16.7%      84.94   -22.7%      20.37   22.9%    19.3%       5.1    45.2										
		
Q2 DEG      1831      -15.0%    1434      -18.8%     397       9.4%    21.7%
Q2 HMM      1791.55   -12.2%    1402.94   -16.7%     388.61    9.1%    21.7%    2314.8  2422.0

26  7/2      127.11   -12.3%      96.32   -21.6%      30.79   39.4%    24.2%     102.3   181.4
25  6/25     123.25    -7.7%      98.18   -12.8%      25.07   20.1%    20.3%     205.4    85.8
24  6/18     149.89   -11.2%     114.68   -17.7%      35.21   19.5%    23.5%     208.2   142.8
23  6/11     130.81   -13.6%     103.23   -18.6%      27.58   12.3%    21.1%     305.0   152.6
22  6/4      118.16   -34.1%      96.17   -32.8%      21.99  -39.1%    18.6%      15.8   386.8
21  5/28     113.83   -16.6%      91.37   -22.9%      22.46   24.9%    19.7%     154.4    87.9
20  5/21     111.98   -15.2%      91.84   -18.9%      20.14    7.2%    18.0%      99.8   185.7
19  5/14     111.02   -23.6%      90.00   -26.8%      21.02   -6.2%    18.9%     155.6   113.6
18  5/7      122.05   -25.2%      99.74   -29.5%      22.31   -7.7%    18.3%     141.5   106.1
17  4/30     106.99   -40.6%      86.94   -39.6%      20.05  -44.5%    18.7%       0.0   120.5
16  4/23     217.30    -8.3%     171.47    -0.3%      45.83  -29.4%    21.1%     187.5   841.3
15  4/16     184.50    48.7%     134.40    24.8%      50.10  205.3%    27.2%     314.8     8.1
14  4/9      174.66    21.6%     128.60     5.9%      46.06  107.5%    26.5%     424.5     9.4
										
Q1 DEG      2068      -20.0%    1661      -25.0%     407      10.0%    19.7%		
Q1 HMM      2020.45   -23.2%    1626.20   -28.4%     394.25    9.4%    19.5%    2116.5  2857.2

13  4/2      192.11   -36.0%     144.16   -44.6%      47.95   20.1%    25.0%     300.9   461.1
12  3/26     135.54   -49.8%     110.21   -50.9%      25.33  -44.1%    18.7%     218.0   335.6
11  3/19     138.72   -46.5%     112.58   -49.6%      26.14  -27.1%    18.8%     154.2   534.3
10  3/12     146.96   -24.4%     116.11   -30.8%      30.85   16.5%    21.0%     177.0   247.2
9   3/5      174.59    -7.2%     132.93   -15.4%      41.66   34.1%    23.9%     112.3   258.8
8   2/26     160.96     4.5%     130.35    -2.5%      30.61   50.7%    19.0%     258.0    74.9
7   2/19     172.68    -8.1%     143.99   -12.7%      28.69   25.0%    16.6%      86.2    80.1
6   2/12     172.00   -19.4%     145.34   -23.1%      26.66    8.9%    15.5%     224.0   211.0
5   2/5      158.26   -16.7%     131.08   -20.8%      27.18   11.1%    17.2%      23.0   114.6
4   1/29     151.21   -14.6%     122.05   -20.9%      29.16   27.6%    19.3%     201.2   151.6
3   1/22     131.62   -16.3%     107.98   -21.0%      23.64   14.8%    18.0%      60.7    61.0
2   1/15     135.49   -17.3%     108.51   -23.9%      26.98   27.0%    19.9%     143.3   137.8
1   1/8      150.31   -14.1%     120.91   -19.5%      29.40   18.6%    19.6%     157.7   189.2

OD = optical disc (DVD + Blu-ray)
YoY = year over year percentage change
TBO = total box office
BD = Blu-ray
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Old 02-21-2012, 07:25 PM   #1653
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Quote:
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It is nice to see DVD down only single digits, and to see OD only down a few percentage. I am not sure if that is sustainable, but I am guessing no one at the studios is complaining.
Only if the box office YoY can sustain itself at +26%. In other words, no, it is not sustainable, but it is nice to see while it lasts. Like a desert flower, reminds me of the good times in Q3 last year.
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Old 02-21-2012, 07:39 PM   #1654
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Only if the box office YoY can sustain itself at +26%. In other words, no, it is not sustainable, but it is nice to see while it lasts. Like a desert flower, reminds me of the good times in Q3 last year.
ROFL! Pretty much.

Wouldn't it be something if BD growth tracked BO strength 1:1 (or close to it) for 2012?
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Old 02-21-2012, 08:19 PM   #1655
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ROFL! Pretty much.

Wouldn't it be something if BD growth tracked BO strength 1:1 (or close to it) for 2012?
I would hope it does better than 1:1, as that would be zero growth basically. Last year it was 1.19:0.92 (19.4% growth with BO down 8.2%) or, 1.3:1 adjusted for box office parity. I'm guessing we'll see between 1.1:1 to 1.15:1 revenue / box office this year, but right now it's not quite there yet. 1.276:1.265 --> 1.009:1, or, slightly less than 1 percent higher than the 1:1 base.

Last edited by bruceames; 02-21-2012 at 08:28 PM.
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Old 02-22-2012, 10:58 AM   #1656
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Finally a solid week!
Any EST sales #'s?

Quote:
only 19 million digital film files were sold during the entire year of 2011 by electronic sell-through (EST) vendors like iTunes, Xbox Live and Vudu
http://www.4-traders.com/IHS-INC-130...e-US-14035697/
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Old 02-22-2012, 11:15 AM   #1657
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
I would hope it does better than 1:1, as that would be zero growth basically. Last year it was 1.19:0.92 (19.4% growth with BO down 8.2%) or, 1.3:1 adjusted for box office parity. I'm guessing we'll see between 1.1:1 to 1.15:1 revenue / box office this year, but right now it's not quite there yet. 1.276:1.265 --> 1.009:1, or, slightly less than 1 percent higher than the 1:1 base.
Checking that ratio at the end of Q3 will be interesting as that should level out some of the catalog impact.

And most of the strong (non blockbuster) titles from Q1 to date should be released in Q3.
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Old 02-22-2012, 11:21 AM   #1658
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19 million files sold. I am guessing that the majority is sold from iTunes, so for three companies, that number seems alright. Could be better for sure, but not every CE company is involved so I wonder if you know what the profit share for EST and OD is comparatively?
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Old 02-22-2012, 01:21 PM   #1659
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19 million files sold. I am guessing that the majority is sold from iTunes, so for three companies, that number seems alright. Could be better for sure, but not every CE company is involved so I wonder if you know what the profit share for EST and OD is comparatively?
1) Apple alone has sold more iPads than the entire industry has sold digital movies. Hardware from one company is outselling digital movies. Not good.
2) It's not just "three companies". It's every company that sells movies. They merely gave those three as examples.
3) "Not every CE company is involved"? True. NEC doesn't sell movies. But Apple does. MS does. Sony does. Vudu is on tons of TVs and bluray players. So is Cinemanow. 19M movies sold all year to millions of iPads, 360s and PS3s isn't good.

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Old 02-22-2012, 01:28 PM   #1660
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Interesting factoid in a UV article this morning...Tom Adams:

Quote:
“One million may not sound like much compared to the 504 million movie discs sold in 2011,” noted Tom Adams, principal analyst and director, US media, for IHS.
Tom Adams, back in January 2008...

U.S. DVD unit sales dropped in '07

Quote:
U.S. DVD unit sales fell 4.5 percent in 2007, marking the first big year-over-year decline for the category since the disc format debuted in 1997, according to preliminary estimates released on Thursday.

After essentially flat trends for 2005 and 2006, sales of films and TV shows on DVDs fell from 1.144 billion units in 2006, to 1.092 billion units in 2007, said Tom Adams, president of Adams Media Research, a California-based entertainment data firm. The figures include next-generation DVD sales.
Disc unit sales are less than 1/2 what they were in 2007?!
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Old 02-22-2012, 01:53 PM   #1661
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Interesting factoid in a UV article this morning...Tom Adams:



Tom Adams, back in January 2008...

U.S. DVD unit sales dropped in '07

Disc unit sales are less than 1/2 what they were in 2007?!
Now track that to the amounts of discs rented at Redbox since 2005/6 onward.

From 2010:
Quote:
Redbox has rented out over 500 million DVDs to impulse buyers that have been wooed by the $1 price tag.
And don't forget to include Netflix rentals.

It's not hard to see what has happened.

Why buy any movie (digital or on disc) when you can rent it for $1.xx on average??

Once again, DVD from 1997-2004/5 did not have to face such a proposition.

Last edited by bombsnizzle; 02-22-2012 at 01:58 PM.
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Old 02-22-2012, 02:03 PM   #1662
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Originally Posted by mikemorel View Post
Interesting factoid in a UV article this morning...Tom Adams:



Tom Adams, back in January 2008...

U.S. DVD unit sales dropped in '07

Disc unit sales are less than 1/2 what they were in 2007?!
The magnitude of the decline is pretty mind boggling.

Again, it makes statements like "Blu-ray has maintained sell through" look absolutely ludicrous. Sell through (new and catalog) has taken a beating from OD sell through peak.
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Old 02-22-2012, 02:04 PM   #1663
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikemorel View Post
Interesting factoid in a UV article this morning...Tom Adams:



Tom Adams, back in January 2008...

U.S. DVD unit sales dropped in '07

Disc unit sales are less than 1/2 what they were in 2007?!
Nope.

I think you are being confused as one figure for 2011 being just movies while the 2007 figure is all disc sales including all other releases in addition to movies.

One quote is movie only sales to compare physical movie sales with the scale of UV movie sales. The other quote is talking about movies and TV shows etc.

Apples and oranges.

Quote:
504 million movie discs sold in 2011
Quote:
After essentially flat trends for 2005 and 2006, sales of films and TV shows on DVDs fell from 1.144 billion units in 2006, to 1.092 billion units in 2007,
One is theatrical movies sold while the other includes all types of releases including TV shows , other releases and theatrical movies.

I think its apple to oranges and the total OD disc sales have actually declined less than the revenue decline for OD.

DVD unit sales have not declined as fast or as much as DVD revenues as the retail price points for old DVD catalog releases have dropped since 2007.

Last edited by Kosty; 02-22-2012 at 02:09 PM.
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Old 02-22-2012, 02:12 PM   #1664
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Originally Posted by PSound View Post
The magnitude of the decline is pretty mind boggling.

Again, it makes statements like "Blu-ray has maintained sell through" look absolutely ludicrous. Sell through (new and catalog) has taken a beating from OD sell through peak.
That calculation is in error. See above.

Far more DVD and Blu-ray unit sales of all types of releases were sold in 2011 which would be the proper figure to use against the 2007 number.

The 2011 figure above I think is just movies to make the point against the use of UV to put it into perspective.
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Old 02-22-2012, 02:15 PM   #1665
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No one is arguing that total revenues or disc sales in 2011 for DVD and Blu-ray is equal to DVD at its peak in 2007 or before for either catalog or new releases.

But much if not most of the decline is concentrated in the revenues generated from DVD catalog non new release sales which Blu-ray has not covered DVDs attrition as much as it has for new release revenues and units.

But 2011 or 2012 is not and will never be what DVD was in at its peak in 2007 or above in any regard.
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