Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

[Malanthius]

Originally Posted by mikemorel

From 2005:

SALES, RENTALS SLOWING AS DIGITAL DISC TURNS 8.

Home video execs were concerned about DVD peak and fall before Redbox even existed, because they were running out of catalog DVD to sell.

Exactly. Redbox is a factor. Just less of a factor. Hell people we're buying lots of releases on dvd when you could rent movies from Blockbuster. Not just the blockbuster titles. Catalog dried up. That's why the studios needed Bluray to resell catalog. That's why I have argued just how important catalog was to insure a successful Bluray format. Some of these guys are in such denial of these facts. It's because it exposes Blurays problems and they don't want to face them or admit them. It also shows how wrong they have been.

[Lee Stewart]

Originally Posted by bombsnizzle

The iPod was a catalyst. So was Redbox. Even when sales didn't necessarily reflect it. They changed the game. Their mere introduction blew things up.

Nope - the ECONOMY changed the game. And that is what caused the true popularity of Redbox. And that was after 2008. Not 2006 as you are trying to claim.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by mikemorel

From 2005:

SALES, RENTALS SLOWING AS DIGITAL DISC TURNS 8.

Home video execs were concerned about DVD peak and fall before Redbox even existed, because they were running out of catalog DVD to sell.

Nice find Mike. I always wondered how catalog sold compared to new release back in the DVD heyday. No doubt catalog still sells quite a bit on the mother format, as well as TV on DVD, but revenues would be much lower because of lower price points.

Like Mal said, studios no doubt hoped that catalog would sell a lot better than it has on Blu-ray. It has been a disappointment, although new release is faring much better (even though it's taking forever for BD market share to climb). I would estimate that new release on Blu-ray sells probably 3 times as much as catalog does. Huge difference, especially considering that Blu-ray revenue is so small to begin with. One could say that DVD catalog titles sold at least 10 times as many copies as what the average Blu-ray catalog sells. No wonder why price erosion is so rampant on Blu-ray catalog today, and why we see 2-3 titles being offered on one SKU for a little over $10 bucks street price. That kind of of pricing was unheard of back in 2002-2003.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

Nope - the ECONOMY changed the game. And that is what caused the true popularity of Redbox. And that was after 2008. Not 2006 as you are trying to claim.

I think we would see similar sell through sales if it weren't for the recession. Sure they would be up a bit, but the decline in OD is for the most part due to factors other than the economy.

[bombsnizzle]

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

LMAO! Utter nonsense! That you can compare a DVD kiosk to a Best Buy store just shows how desperate you are to not to admit that you are WRONG in your statements.

Try looking at Redbox's financials and see what their gross sales has been for the last 6 years (per year). THAT will tell you everything you need to know - not some half-assed bullshit comparison like you are making.

1000 locations is a lot of anything - Best Buy or kiosk.

33000 kiosks is ubiquity.

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

Nope - the ECONOMY changed the game. And that is what caused the true popularity of Redbox. And that was after 2008. Not 2006 as you are trying to claim.

The $1/night ethos sparked people's interest in 2006. By 2008 it was pervasive.

The simple facts show the growth of Redbox and the decline of DVD sales. It is not the only factor, but is certainly one of them. It's as if you are STILL denying Redbox had any impact at all - which is just plain silly.

[chipvideo]

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

That's what I'm wondering. He seems very upset that we can finally dish it out without fear of major retaliation by the Powers That Be over on that other forum. He was obviously able to get away with it, but we were not.

Always love looking back at these old polls. You, Silverado and myself were pretty much spot on. Maybe even a bit optimistic. Blu-ray is already peaking or close to it. I suspect lots of DVD delays and such to get that number artificially higher.

Thats because you and I actually didn't use our emotion to make our predictions. We used our observations and our thoughts on how the internet has changed human behavior over the last decade.

The internet has devalued all home entertainment bigtime. The studios obviously didn't get the memo.

I expect them to try and prop up bluray by offering combo packs only in an attempt to get the public to percieve blu-ray as the must have item, however I see it failing as consumers really dont give that much a damn about blu-ray. DVD is good enough for most people. Not for you and me, but the majority of Amercia it is good enough. A dvd looks better than most cable hd, yet consumers watch more bitstarved overcompressed cable than a OD.

[chipvideo]

Originally Posted by bombsnizzle

Best Buy had 852 store locations inthe US in 2008.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/da...18349_110q.htm

Pretty sure Best Buy has an impact on the OD market right? With less locations than Redbox

Yet 1000 kiosks are impactless? Your argument is ridiculous.

Millions of people ate at McDonald's in 2005 in the US. Millions of those customers used Redbox for $1/night. Millions of those people didn't buy the DVD that they rented for $1 from Redbox in 2005.

2005 was the start - now in 2012 WB is so scared they have a 56 day embargo.

OMFG. Comparing the revenue of one redbox location to a Best Buy location is just beyond ludicrous.

I bet each kiosk averaged at most $1500 per year in sales at that peroid in time your trying to compare. Each Best Buy probably averages at least $25,000 per day.

[bombsnizzle]

Originally Posted by chipvideo

OMFG. Comparing the revenue of one redbox location to a Best Buy location is just beyond ludicrous.

I bet each kiosk averaged at most $1500 per year in sales at that peroid in time your trying to compare. Each Best Buy probably averages at least $25,000 per day.

Who is comparing revenue? Try reading next time. In particular the word LOCATIONS.

I don't care what $$ Redbox makes. The point is what they take away from DVD sales because they rent for $1/night.

You are so quick to disagree and support your buddies you don't even take the time to see what was being said.

[Lee Stewart]

Originally Posted by bruceames

I think we would see similar sell through sales if it weren't for the recession. Sure they would be up a bit, but the decline in OD is for the most part due to factors other than the economy.

IMO, the lousy economy has been the greatest influence on OD sales. It has caused people to stop and think instead of just making an impulse buy. It disrupted ingrained consumers buying habits.

The declines would not have been as severe as they have been. They would have been more gradual, like from 2006 to 2007 and not the falling off a cliff like they have been.

[Lee Stewart]

Originally Posted by bombsnizzle

1000 locations is a lot of anything - Best Buy or kiosk.

How can you possibly compare a Best Buy store and a Redbox Kiosk and think they are anything alike. Do you have any idea how much revenue a Redbox Kiosk generates on a daily basis versus a Best Buy store? You are comparing a cup of water to an olympic swiming pool and trying to say they are the same because they both contain water.

33000 kiosks is ubiquity.

The $1/night ethos sparked people's interest in 2006. By 2008 it was pervasive.

Right in the middle of the Great Recession. Nice to see you recant your position concerning the economic influence on OD sales.

The simple facts show the growth of Redbox and the decline of DVD sales. It is not the only factor, but is certainly one of them. It's as if you are STILL denying Redbox had any impact at all - which is just plain silly.

I never said that so please don't try to put words in my mouth that I did not say. The shitty economy was the spark for Redbox's growth and not the other way around as some here are trying to claim.

[bombsnizzle]

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

How can you possibly compare a Best Buy store and a Redbox Kiosk and think they are anything alike. Do you have any idea how much revenue a Redbox Kiosk generates on a daily basis versus a Best Buy store? You are comparing a cup of water to an olympic swiming pool and trying to say they are the same because they both contain water.

I never compared revenue. I said 1000 locations is a lot for any business. 1000 kiosks. 1000 Rita's Water Ice huts. 1000 Jiffy Lubes. I don't care the business or the revenue. 1000 of any one business is a lot.

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

Right in the middle of the Great Recession. Nice to see you recant your position concerning the economic influence on OD sales.

I recanted nothing. Show me where I EVER said the economy wasn't a factor. You won't be able to because I never said it.

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

I never said that so please don't try to put words in my mouth that I did not say. The shitty economy was the spark for Redbox's growth and not the other way around as some here are trying to claim.

You've done a pretty good job putting words in mine. In just one post you said I compared revenue and never recognized the economy as a factor, when I've done neither.

Redbox would have grown without the economy, because they provide a good service with good value to consumers.

Now please - actually read my posts next time before you tell me what I've supposedly said. You've been quite inaccurate thus far.

[Lee Stewart]

Originally Posted by bombsnizzle

I never compared revenue. I said 1000 locations is a lot for any business. 1000 kiosks. 1000 Rita's Water Ice huts. 1000 Jiffy Lubes. I don't care the business or the revenue. 1000 of any one business is a lot.

LMAO! There you go again! Comparing an actual B & M store, a piece of real estate - to a glorified Coke machine!

I recanted nothing. Show me where I EVER said the economy wasn't a factor. You won't be able to because I never said it.

You've done a pretty good job putting words in mine. In just one post you said I compared revenue and never recognized the economy as a factor, when I've done neither.

Redbox would have grown without the economy, because they provide a good service with good value to consumers.

Now please - actually read my posts next time before you tell me what I've supposedly said. You've been quite inaccurate thus far.

Try reading them yourself before you post them - then you will see the nonsense you are typing.

BTW - just because you think you are a legend in your own mind doesn't make it so.

[bombsnizzle]

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

LMAO! There you go again! Comparing an actual B & M store, a piece of real estate - to a glorified Coke machine!

Those coke machines played a role in killing Blockbuster. You know - those real estate video stores.

What good is real estate when those stores merely have leases anyway? I fail to see what real estate has to do with anything.

Redbox is a business with customers. So is Best Buy. Any business with 1000 locations is significant. That is all I was saying. A business with 1000 locations is a big business. It isn't insignificant.

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

Try reading them yourself before you post them - then you will see the nonsense you are typing.

Nonsense. Right. Pretty close to being an insult no?

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

BTW - just because you think you are a legend in your own mind doesn't make it so.

Right back at you Mr. 32000 posts.

[cakefoo]

Originally Posted by bruceames

You're right that the December box office was more of a factor, but catalogs and DTV were very prevalent in 2011 as well.

You can't say that definitively... you just added up all the indexes, no weighting whatsoever. If the new releases are weaker in absolute terms, then the catalogs are going to look stronger in relative terms, but nothing there is absolute. It's comparing apples to oranges.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by cakefoo

You can't say that definitively... you just added up all the indexes, no weighting whatsoever. If the new releases are weaker in absolute terms, then the catalogs are going to look stronger in relative terms, but nothing there is absolute. It's comparing apples to oranges.

True, but then neither can you. Using The-Numbers DVD numbers to scale Blu-ray is a slippery slope. I wouldn't go there if I were you.

Perhaps in May, when The-Numbers actually estimated Blu-ray unit sales, you can make such comparisons.