What does the future hold for cable TV?

mrbeankc · 07-18-2009, 06:53 PM

I remember years ago when I got my first DVD player. DVDs were very very new. I remember vividly online forums where people were in near hysterics claiming that DVDs would never catch on. They didn't like the idea of their VHS collections going the way of the dinosaur so it was sort of knee jerk reaction. I had one guy on a forum about movies throw a fit and actually quit the forum when a special area was created to discuss DVDs.

Of course as time went on the VHS section in the stores shrank as the DVD section got bigger and bigger until VHS vanished. It was simply a matter of time as people migrated from tape to DVD. I remember knowing that DVD had arrived as the market standard on the day I walked into a Suncoast and the DVD section which had been in the back was now in the front with the VHS section now in the rear of the store.

The same thing is coming in terms of standard television. Slow at first like with DVD until you look around and suddenly there are nothing but HDTVs in stores...oh wait, that's already happened.

From stores now only carrying HDTVs the next step will be cable providers. They are currently adding more and more HD channels just like the stores added more and more DVD titles. I currently have TWC and they have a pretty good HD channel lineup. Right now I have about 60 HD channels to choose from which is pretty good and a lot more than just 12 months ago. More are on the way.

Now I know that those 60 channels are dwarfed by the hundreds of standard channels TWC has. However from what I have read 29% of people who currently subscribe to a cable or satellite service own an HDTV. That's expected to double in the next 3 years. The question is, at what point do the number of HD channels start to tip the scales against the standard channels and cable providers start dropping non HD channels? I think that day is going to be very similar to the day Suncoast moved it's DVDs to the front of the store signifying that the one had finally surpassed the other as the general norm.

Scottnot · 07-18-2009, 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrbeankc

The question is, at what point do the number of HD channels start to tip the scales against the standard channels and cable providers start dropping non HD channels? I think that day is going to be very similar to the day Suncoast moved it's DVDs to the front of the store signifying that the one had finally surpassed the other as the general norm.

That may not even be a meaningful question.
Obviously the number of HD channels will continue to increase.
Exactly when the number of HD channels surpasses the number of SD channels is somewhat irrelavent - it simply will happen.
Rather than arbitrarily dropping SD channels, most providers will continue to provide both for sometime to come to meet the market requirements; if your data is correct, 70% of subscribers can only receive SD content - it's not likely the providers will cut them off any time soon.

**PFC5** · 07-18-2009, 11:26 PM

I think it will be 15+ years before all SD channels go away, and are replaced by HD channels. I base this GUESS on how much longer we can expect SDTVs to last in homes (guess for 90% it would be over 10 years), AND on all those channels upgrading their cameras, towers, etc to handle HD signals likely continuing on for 5 years after the SDTVs are mostly all replaced.

Remember, HDTVs can receive SD signals so the only thing stopping many channels from NOT changing over to HD would be lost market share to competing channels that ARE in HD. At that point the cost of providing SD will become too much I think.

Who knows though? We may have some SD channels for 20+ years possibly. It is all guess work at this point. I only have about 25 HD channels on my cable system right now.

glennb1 · 07-19-2009, 04:22 PM

The stores only carry HDTVs now because xx years ago the TV manufacturers were told that by a certain date all new TVs they produced had to have a digital tuner in them. The government shut off the analog broadcasting on June 12th. I'm sure that's go something to do with all the stores only selling HDTVs now.

I'm pretty sure VHS disappeared after DVDs came out because VHS sucked by comparison.

Right now people are replacing their DVD collections with Blu-Ray DVDs.

Scottnot · 07-19-2009, 07:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by glennb1

Right now people are replacing their DVD collections with Blu-Ray DVDs.

Not everybody. Not yet. Maybe some people are.

glennb1 · 07-19-2009, 11:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scottnot

Not everybody. Not yet. Maybe some people are.

I didn't say everyone.

I don't have a Blu-Ray player myself. I just recently bought a 1080p TV. I'll probably buy Blu-Ray movies after I get a Blu-Ray player, but I won't replace the DVDs I have now with Blu-Ray DVDs.

07-18-2009, 06:53 PM	#1
mrbeankc High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: Kansas City Posts: 30	What does the future hold for cable TV? I remember years ago when I got my first DVD player. DVDs were very very new. I remember vividly online forums where people were in near hysterics claiming that DVDs would never catch on. They didn't like the idea of their VHS collections going the way of the dinosaur so it was sort of knee jerk reaction. I had one guy on a forum about movies throw a fit and actually quit the forum when a special area was created to discuss DVDs. Of course as time went on the VHS section in the stores shrank as the DVD section got bigger and bigger until VHS vanished. It was simply a matter of time as people migrated from tape to DVD. I remember knowing that DVD had arrived as the market standard on the day I walked into a Suncoast and the DVD section which had been in the back was now in the front with the VHS section now in the rear of the store. The same thing is coming in terms of standard television. Slow at first like with DVD until you look around and suddenly there are nothing but HDTVs in stores...oh wait, that's already happened. From stores now only carrying HDTVs the next step will be cable providers. They are currently adding more and more HD channels just like the stores added more and more DVD titles. I currently have TWC and they have a pretty good HD channel lineup. Right now I have about 60 HD channels to choose from which is pretty good and a lot more than just 12 months ago. More are on the way. Now I know that those 60 channels are dwarfed by the hundreds of standard channels TWC has. However from what I have read 29% of people who currently subscribe to a cable or satellite service own an HDTV. That's expected to double in the next 3 years. The question is, at what point do the number of HD channels start to tip the scales against the standard channels and cable providers start dropping non HD channels? I think that day is going to be very similar to the day Suncoast moved it's DVDs to the front of the store signifying that the one had finally surpassed the other as the general norm.

07-18-2009, 11:26 PM	#3
PFC5 Super Moderator Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 28,420	I think it will be 15+ years before all SD channels go away, and are replaced by HD channels. I base this GUESS on how much longer we can expect SDTVs to last in homes (guess for 90% it would be over 10 years), AND on all those channels upgrading their cameras, towers, etc to handle HD signals likely continuing on for 5 years after the SDTVs are mostly all replaced. Remember, HDTVs can receive SD signals so the only thing stopping many channels from NOT changing over to HD would be lost market share to competing channels that ARE in HD. At that point the cost of providing SD will become too much I think. Who knows though? We may have some SD channels for 20+ years possibly. It is all guess work at this point. I only have about 25 HD channels on my cable system right now. __________________ Denon AVR-887 Klipsch RP-5 Pwred Towers (mains) (525 watts peak each 12"Subs) All Klipsch RC-25(ctr),(2)SS1(surr),(2)SS1(rearSurr) Toshiba (2)HD-A20,PS3,BD35 For SACD/DVD-A Samsung HD-841 Panny 50pz80u plasma SETTINGS RCA HD50LPW162 50"DLP w/HD2+ SA 3250HD 47" LCD+Yamaha5790+HD-A1(bedroom) Harmony 680 + (2) 670s (amazing remote/support) Game room with Onkyo receiver & B&W Speakers The_Cable_Game Take the high ground and be happier

07-19-2009, 04:22 PM	#4
glennb1 chirshey's BFF Join Date: May 2008 Location: Saint Paul, MN Posts: 3,213	The stores only carry HDTVs now because xx years ago the TV manufacturers were told that by a certain date all new TVs they produced had to have a digital tuner in them. The government shut off the analog broadcasting on June 12th. I'm sure that's go something to do with all the stores only selling HDTVs now. I'm pretty sure VHS disappeared after DVDs came out because VHS sucked by comparison. Right now people are replacing their DVD collections with Blu-Ray DVDs. Last edited by glennb1; 07-19-2009 at 11:19 PM.