My top ten reasons why HD DVD will come back

bruceames

1) PS3 attach ratio (to that of any other HD player) will go down from 30% (now) to about 15% when more games come out. Many PS3 buyers now were HD starved fanboys waiting 6 months to get a BD player worth buying. They all have theirs now, leaving a lower percentage of remaining buyers who buy the PS3 primarily or specifically for BD movies

2) HD DVD standalone players will drop to under $300 by this fall while the cheapest BD player remains the PS3. By this Xmas or early next year, there will be players from Chinese makers for under $200, which is a critical price point that BD won't touch for at least a year later, allowing HD DVD to extend the dedicated standalone player lead by millions.

3) By summer 2008 there will be 4 million HD DVD players world wide and Buena Vista and Lions Gate will crack, followed a few months later by Fox. That point will have been reached by the BD exclusives that lost revenue is being far exceeded by incentives to remain loyal to Blu-ray.

4) HD DVD winning handily in Europe, on the strength of a lopsided HD DVD content advantage, lower player prices and region-free players. Even though HD DVD might still be losing in the States, Europe (and Asia) will give HD DVD needed "staying power" to stem the BD content tide until the BD exclusives go neutral.

5) Universal will not go neutral until Fox does. They know the cards they hold and they are not stupid. Why would they invest in a 90% combo experiment half-heartedly? They are the head of the HD DVD Group in America, too. But they will not budge until they give HD DVD a fair chance, and that won't be known for at least a year when the player prices reach critical mass.

6) Combo discs will slowly become a success. People will see these discs more and more and will notice "HD DVD" on them. That's good advertising and says that HD DVD is the next generation DVD disc. And when Uni starts nuking BD with the combo-only blockbuster releases, then millions will be HD DVD collectors by default. They'll then be HD-aware and seek out more such combos as they know DVD is legacy but they still want to buy DVDs (but don't yet have a HD player or even an HDTV). After collecting a few or even 10 or 15, what's to stop them from buying a critical mass HD DVD player? A PSwhat?

7) The name game. Last Xmas HDTVs were hot items (replacing the traditional computer or laptop) and will be even hotter this Xmas. Consumers will be picking up an HDTV and HD DVD players in pairs, as it just makes sense to match up the names, right? I mean, you can't buy a Blu-ray TV, can you?

8) HD DVD players are being purchased for upscaling capabilities alone. I just bought an XA2 solely for that reason. Why has Toshiba put so much upscaling quality into their players? One reason is related to the combo disc: HD DVD is the next generation DVD and a "combo" HD and great upscaling DVD player is great for intermixing HD and SD playback, just like combo discs are great for playing in other players in the house/car. Its the flexibility. The other reason is so people can buy an HD DVD player without fear of buying a doorstop. The upscaling on these players is practically worth the price alone. Remember, the XA1 is Sound & Vision Magazine's #1 product of the year. That is a VERY important award and will give Toshiba a better reputation for quality stuff. The XA2 mops the floor with the XA1 and it could very well win next year's award. The best quality and a lower price. Pretty tough to lose with that!

9) Porn will give HD DVD the boost of an exclusive studio and will by itself sell many HD DVD players. Remember that HD disc porn will be new, so there will be the curiousity factor, and what's wrong with preferring to view porn on your 52" bedroom HDTV over something you watch hunched over on a computer display in the den? (and probably SD, too). Besides, lots of us would rather do without the spam if at all possible. People are buying a second HDTV every day and where will they be putting the older one?

10) Sony arrogance. Once again Sony will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by their blinding arrogance and overconfidence.

godson

Bravo. Bravo.

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Breakfast, shmreakfast. Look at the score, for Christ's sake. It's only the second period and I'm up 12 to 2. Breakfasts come and go, Renee, but Hartford, "the Whale," they only beat Vancouver once, maybe twice in a lifetime.

Jimmy Smith

HD-DVD winning in Europe? HD-DVD was winning in America too before the Playstation 3 launched. Once the Playstation 3 launchs in Europe it will pull ahead of HD-DVD just like it did here. I don't believe any of your predictions will come to pass but who knows really only time will tell.

bruceames

There's a couple of BIG differences though. The PS3s higher cost there coupled with not offering the cheaper 20gb model will cause sales to stagnate much sooner. But the bigger reason is that HD DVD has an even bigger content advantage over there than they do here, if the source below is accurate.

Also, Europeans have always hated region coded players.

godson

Lol...cmon Jimmy thats cause there wasnt any BD players till the ps3 came along...well real ones atleast.

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Breakfast, shmreakfast. Look at the score, for Christ's sake. It's only the second period and I'm up 12 to 2. Breakfasts come and go, Renee, but Hartford, "the Whale," they only beat Vancouver once, maybe twice in a lifetime.

ja2935

Are BD discs region free?

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InitialDMP5

I dunno man. I just still think its too early to say anybody is behind, or winning. Nobody is winning right now. The only people that are buying HD players (BD and HD DVD) are videophiles, and early adopters. Or gamers who want to show off what their game system can do.

In the end, I think HD DVD will not win. Doesn't Blu Ray have more studios backing it? right now they are selling a lot more movies than HD DVD, and thats all that matters. They won't budge as long as they are seeing growth. Universal has not announced any dates for its HD DVD releases this year, making a lot of people think they are going dual format. I don't particularly care for studios releasing movies in both formats. It just keeps things exactly where they are. Someone needs to come out on top, and then the studios on the opposing format can come over then.

And you can't just put this on Sony. They are definitely a big part of Blu Ray, but there are other companies behind the format.

Also the argument of HDtv=HD DVD is not really legitimate. People bought DVD players instead of VCRs didn't they? Most people don't even know what DVD stands for. If you watch HD channels like INHD or discovery channel on you new HDtv, there are more Blu Ray commercials shown than HD DVD. And the Blu Ray commercials are clearly advertising movies. There is an HD DVD commercial for a toshiba player where the guy and girl are "in the movie" but it doesn't really explain what the toshiba device does. You would think its just a DVD player commercial.

And as far as europe is concerned, I really can't say. But I do know that a company claims victory when they can win the American and Japanese markets. Even european singers and actors don't consider their careers complete until they can make the transistion to America.

Overall most of your reasons are opinions, and not based on facts. Lets just wait it out (unfortunately) and see where this goes.

bruceames

Well actually I wrote that I response to someone challenging me in another thread "tell me why you think they will come back", after telling me to begin with that BD has left HD DVD behind for good.

I could've added some links to back up some of what I said but hey it's all opinion anyway and good fun. The name game part was a reach though, I could think of another one better but those are the first ones that came to mind.

BiggNewt

I think it's probably even more than 30%, more like 50%. People will continue to buy the PS3 for Blu-Ray, even more so now that there are some quality movie titles coming out now.

You are assuming prices will be under $200, we don't know yet, Under $200 is a big MAYBE and I don't think it will happen. Sony is already talking PS3 price cut, so you can't count that out either. And again, Content sells a format, not hardware, what good is a player with a low selection of films?

Wow okay this is a big jump I see, you expect them to sell 3 million plus players in a years time, when it's taken them a year to sell 300,000 units? If HD-DVD sells 3 million stand alones, PS3 will have sold 6-8 million PS3s.

Sony has always owned Europe and with the news of the PS3 orders selling out like mad over there, it doesn't look like much is changing. And don't even bring Asia in this, the numbers over there indicate all but pure defeat for HD-DVD, Blu-Ray owns 96% of the sales. http://nolist.jp/bdvshddvd/

Universal is in a lot worse shape than Fox is and is looking to sell, this could be a big factor. Whether Universal goes neutral or not, they still more support than one Major Studio. We are seeing it at this moment, Universal just can't steadily keep up with 5 or 6 other major studios constant releases.

Most people do not like Combo discs, even HD-DVD enthusiasts despise this. But who knows what the public will catch on to.

Names are great, if you advertise the name, Toshiba has done horrible in that regard.

You are assuming Blu-Ray won't come out with good upscaling?

Biggest mislead ever. Porn is so readily available now over the internet, why would someone want to pay $25 plus for something they can get for free?


It's not just Sony this time, lots of other companies will keep them in check on what they do.

sufs

You netter believe it, I personally fall under the European region 2 and tell you region coded DVD players don't sell crap. The biggest reason I and many others in the PAL region have bought HD DVD is the 0 region coded disc's. However if the HD DVD does not get its act together I will get a PS3 this summer with a region 1 code and then because BDA are bastards I'd be forced to buy another region 2 machine if BD wins the format war. It's all greed on Sony's part the games are region free why not just make the whole thing like that, oh I forgot they f***** up every launch and with shortages everywhere they feared people would import all over the place.


Did you honestly think that you would post a link and no one would check if what you said had any truth behind it. The PS3 sold out in the US and now it's sitting on shelves and the same will happen in Europe, although not as bad in relation to the US. If I were to guess I'd say they are mostly going to EBAY and I will come remind you during launch.

BiggNewt

Did you click the link, it shows that Blu-Ray average Japan amazon rank is 873, HD-DVD is 3229.

3000GTCSULB

I cant wait for my escrow to close to buy the XA2 from Value Electronics!!!!

sufs

Yeah I saw that and it certainlly does not mean they own 96% of Asia sales. Also you do realize that Japan is far from represnting all of Asia.

Colt45

I don't think either format is going away any time soon. I also don't think people buy one or the other (games or movies), maybe some but many buy/rent both. Having more quality games on my 360 and PS3 doesn't stop me from wanting to watch the movies I want to watch.

Superman

If I go out and buy an Xbox 360 this month, I wont be buying any movies, and vice versa. That is how my budget works. I think there are many people like that.