The cost of the High Def player and High Dev DVDs is not that important

doggie · 11-06-2005, 02:10 AM

Sony knows the killing point of Blu-ray is the media cost, and if you believe their propaganda, the cost is supposed to be close to a DVD..."in time", whatever the heck that means. DVD media was over $9 a piece when it debuted, and it took 4 years for it to drop down to $1. I know the Sony and Panasonic Blu-ray recorders are selling in Japan already, but it's very hard to find a definite, current price on the media. I've seen recent articles mention prices for a blank from $20-$30US. Here are some nice HD media picks though.

http://www.blu-ray.com/media/

RSawdey · 11-07-2005, 11:55 PM

When you compare cost per MB of storage, media of 10x size should cost 10x price. But only after volume manufacturing kicks in.

dwcob · 11-08-2005, 07:25 PM

...it is about being able to sell enough units to make them commercially viable, particularly the media.

Whether the studios charge you $75/movie or $25/movie (just to be extreme) isn't going to matter as much as how many units they sell. In real terms, in a case like that, you don't sell 1/3 of the volume at triple the price...you might sell a 1/5th.

That is the heart of the economics here, and it is the thing that will hold the development back. It is why I feel HD-DVD will win.

Early adopters are NOT enough of a market. Think about how much money we have all spent already and how very little content there is for us to watch. There simply are not enough of us yet to be a commercially interesting market. What is the ratio at this point? 10x the number of SD channels as HD channels?

And not every HD TV owner will spring for an HD/Blu-Ray DVD player. Upconverting DVD players will be "good enough" for a lot of people.

I am not really making my point as concisely as I meant to but we are really talking about mass market products that have a very small audience at this point. Content won't be developed to pursue a small number of customers, and studios have had years to figure out what DVD pricing works. They will know that higher price means fewer sales and ultimate less profit.

Time will fix it of course, but price...price is absolutely everything in this market. NO ONE would pay as much per unit as a studio would want to make to begin to approach the profit they can make on standard DVD's.

SLedford · 11-08-2005, 08:46 PM

I use a somewhat "flawed" logic to justify buying DVDs instead of renting. This logic says that if I watch the movie more than once, I am better off buying instead of renting. The fact that I don't have to mess with renting & returning a DVD also factors into the buy choice.

Assuming that the movie is $18 with tax (like the Charlie and the Chocolate Factory I bought today at Best Buy), I really would have to watch the movie about 4 times to justify buying over renting. If the price of a basic high def DVD is much higher, than I will probably continue buying standard DVDs or rent.

I have noticed that Best Buy, Circuit City & Comp USA all have the same DVD release price (which goes up a week later). Why are all the prices about the same? Competition. If they priced the release at $25 or so before tax, I (and millions of other shoppers) would just rent the movie or wait for the price to drop after a few years. Best Buy now puts Gladiator (an awesome movie) on for $8 on special.

I cannot believe that the movie industry is going to sacrifice the sale of DVDs - they certainly cannot depend upon strictly on ticket sales at the movie theater for their income - that has been a declining market for years. To make this work, they have to come in somewhat near the current standard DVD price, with possibly a small increase for all the "extras" that will be included in the HD version.

Finally, I have a DVD+R burner in my PC. When I first started buying blank DVDs they were around $3 each. Last time I looked, I could get them on sale for under 50 cents each. I expect the same thing to happen with high def DVDs, regardless of which standard wins out.

All of this is speculation. We really don't know who will win the war (if anyone), or if the high def DVD market will ever be more than just a niche. A lot of that will depend upon disk availability and pricing. It is going to be fun to see how all of this sorts itself out.

fryet · 11-09-2005, 10:31 AM

HDTV - $3000
Home Theater Setup - $1000
DVR - $650
High Def DVD player - $500

Too cheap to spend $30 on a High Def DVD (compared to $18 for a regular DVD)? I highly doubt it. I also expect High Def DVD's to be the most fantastic demo of your TV's abilities. Once you see a movie on a High Def DVD, I think HDTV owners would have a hard time buying regular DVDs.

SLedford · 11-09-2005, 11:12 AM

Add the cost of a new reciever (to handle the new HD sound capablilities) to the mix for $1,000 to $1,500, and you are probably right - a $30 high def DVD will not be a problem.

Cable started out at $15 and people screamed about paying that. Now I pay $120 + for HD cable / cable internet and don't think twice about it.

Chris Gerhard · 11-23-2005, 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by maicaw

The DCDi upscaler in the Oppo is significantly better than anything in the Samsung - I have both - don't dismiss upscalers without experiencing DCDi --Superbit DVDs look every bit as good as PBS "HDTV" - but not as good as real CBS/NBC OTA-HDTV.. Fox and ABC somewhere in-between

The Samsung DVD-HD941 uses the same Faroudja FLI2310 chip as the Oppo DV971H. Although I believe the Oppo does a better job over DVI compared to the HD941, the HD941 can upconvert over component and is a universal player with DVD-A and SACD playback. There are several Samsung upscaling players, I use the HD950 and like it really well.

Chris

maicaw · 11-23-2005, 11:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Gerhard

The Samsung DVD-HD941 uses the same Faroudja FLI2310 chip as the Oppo DV971H. ..... There are several Samsung upscaling players, I use the HD950 and like it really well. Chris

mine was a H841 from mid 2004 and doesn't have DCDi - I checked to see when Samsung started using the Faroudja scaler and I found this statement http://www.220-electronics.com/dvd/samsung941.htm

Quote:

If you are looking for a black player only, The DVD-HD950 is the one to go with. There is a major difference between the 2 units. The 941 has a Farudja chipset which is one of the most expensive and best chipsets in the market today. The Samsung DVD-HD950 uses a chipset called Zoran. This one is a good chipset, but not as good as the Farudja in the Samsung HD-941. If you like silver then the DVD_HD941 is the way to go as it is less expensive and better, but if you want Black, then the DVD-HD950 is a good alternative.

FYI there are hidden menu options to remove or change region codes for many DVD players at this site http://www.videohelp.com/dvdhacks.php - [the hack link on the site mentioned in the post had been removed ]

11-08-2005, 07:25 PM	#18
dwcob A couch and an HDTV to go please. Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 13	Honestly, it isn't about the price to the consumer here... ...it is about being able to sell enough units to make them commercially viable, particularly the media. Whether the studios charge you $75/movie or $25/movie (just to be extreme) isn't going to matter as much as how many units they sell. In real terms, in a case like that, you don't sell 1/3 of the volume at triple the price...you might sell a 1/5th. That is the heart of the economics here, and it is the thing that will hold the development back. It is why I feel HD-DVD will win. Early adopters are NOT enough of a market. Think about how much money we have all spent already and how very little content there is for us to watch. There simply are not enough of us yet to be a commercially interesting market. What is the ratio at this point? 10x the number of SD channels as HD channels? And not every HD TV owner will spring for an HD/Blu-Ray DVD player. Upconverting DVD players will be "good enough" for a lot of people. I am not really making my point as concisely as I meant to but we are really talking about mass market products that have a very small audience at this point. Content won't be developed to pursue a small number of customers, and studios have had years to figure out what DVD pricing works. They will know that higher price means fewer sales and ultimate less profit. Time will fix it of course, but price...price is absolutely everything in this market. NO ONE would pay as much per unit as a studio would want to make to begin to approach the profit they can make on standard DVD's.

11-08-2005, 08:46 PM	#19
SLedford HD Fan Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Little Rock, Arkansas Posts: 1,023	Price matters to me I use a somewhat "flawed" logic to justify buying DVDs instead of renting. This logic says that if I watch the movie more than once, I am better off buying instead of renting. The fact that I don't have to mess with renting & returning a DVD also factors into the buy choice. Assuming that the movie is $18 with tax (like the Charlie and the Chocolate Factory I bought today at Best Buy), I really would have to watch the movie about 4 times to justify buying over renting. If the price of a basic high def DVD is much higher, than I will probably continue buying standard DVDs or rent. I have noticed that Best Buy, Circuit City & Comp USA all have the same DVD release price (which goes up a week later). Why are all the prices about the same? Competition. If they priced the release at $25 or so before tax, I (and millions of other shoppers) would just rent the movie or wait for the price to drop after a few years. Best Buy now puts Gladiator (an awesome movie) on for $8 on special. I cannot believe that the movie industry is going to sacrifice the sale of DVDs - they certainly cannot depend upon strictly on ticket sales at the movie theater for their income - that has been a declining market for years. To make this work, they have to come in somewhat near the current standard DVD price, with possibly a small increase for all the "extras" that will be included in the HD version. Finally, I have a DVD+R burner in my PC. When I first started buying blank DVDs they were around $3 each. Last time I looked, I could get them on sale for under 50 cents each. I expect the same thing to happen with high def DVDs, regardless of which standard wins out. All of this is speculation. We really don't know who will win the war (if anyone), or if the high def DVD market will ever be more than just a niche. A lot of that will depend upon disk availability and pricing. It is going to be fun to see how all of this sorts itself out.

11-09-2005, 11:12 AM	#21
SLedford HD Fan Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Little Rock, Arkansas Posts: 1,023	You are probably right Add the cost of a new reciever (to handle the new HD sound capablilities) to the mix for $1,000 to $1,500, and you are probably right - a $30 high def DVD will not be a problem. Cable started out at $15 and people screamed about paying that. Now I pay $120 + for HD cable / cable internet and don't think twice about it.

11-06-2005, 02:10 AM	#16
doggie TimeWarnerStinks Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 210	Sony knows the killing point of Blu-ray is the media cost, and if you believe their propaganda, the cost is supposed to be close to a DVD..."in time", whatever the heck that means. DVD media was over $9 a piece when it debuted, and it took 4 years for it to drop down to $1. I know the Sony and Panasonic Blu-ray recorders are selling in Japan already, but it's very hard to find a definite, current price on the media. I've seen recent articles mention prices for a blank from $20-$30US. Here are some nice HD media picks though. http://www.blu-ray.com/media/

11-07-2005, 11:55 PM	#17
RSawdey Mr. Wizard Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Ferndale, Michigan Age: 61 Posts: 5,981	When you compare cost per MB of storage, media of 10x size should cost 10x price. But only after volume manufacturing kicks in.

11-09-2005, 10:31 AM	#20
fryet High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Bay Area, CA Age: 38 Posts: 632	HDTV - $3000 Home Theater Setup - $1000 DVR - $650 High Def DVD player - $500 Too cheap to spend $30 on a High Def DVD (compared to $18 for a regular DVD)? I highly doubt it. I also expect High Def DVD's to be the most fantastic demo of your TV's abilities. Once you see a movie on a High Def DVD, I think HDTV owners would have a hard time buying regular DVDs.