Analysts agree Blu ray victory will help PS3 outsell Xbox 360

MikeRox · 02-22-2008, 03:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GLOW

Thanks for posting those links, kamspy. I think some people on this forum don't want to believe that you need more than a standard DVD-9 to fit a 1080p/60 game with high quality visuals and audio. In the next gen, more space WILL be needed and the only real option is Blu-ray.

Indeed maybe next gen it will be needed, I think it's more novelty value on the PS3 from a gaming front though. Of course developers love it, it means less optimisation as they don't have to tidy up the edges and can just dump everything on the disc (something that happened a lot with DVD games early on).

I don't get why anyone can deny if it's already in the console, having the extra capacity as an option is a bad thing though. Bizarre Creations openly admitted they had to make cuts to PGR4's weather system because it wouldn't all fit onto the DVD though requiring BD rather than DVD will certainly be the exception rather than the rule.

The main reason for Blu-rays use on every PS3 title is more to get more discs inproduction and drive down pressing costs and reliability in a faster time.

I mean a good selling PS3 title will sell more than 10x as much as a record breaking Blu-ray movie release for the forseeable future.

There is 1 reason to be excited about the PS3 and 1 reason only... Untapped potential. Look at the early PS2 releases such as Ridge Racer V, and compare them with the later releases such as Burnout 3and Burnout Revenge (the latter is an absolutely incredibly achievement imo). The visuals on the PS2 because of it's "poor" unbalanced architechture (raw power being the key component) improved leaps and bounds in it's lifespan, while GC and Xbox titles barely progressed with their balanced approach.

The PS3 has gone down a very similar route, it actually makes the hardware more versatile once developers get to grips with it, and allows things to be possible in afew years time that developers wouldn't dream of being able to do right now (there were so many little "tricks" developed for the Ps2 which is why Sony are having such a hard time getting emulation up to scratch, developers got things out of the Emotion Engine that weren't possible on paper). This is why even though the PS3 is only going toe to toe with the 360 in general right now, in the future I expect the gap to increase considerably between the 2 formats, especially if the PS3 becomes the lead platform when it's userbase surpasses the 360s later this year (unless a miracle happens, Microsoft drop into third by the end of the year).

That would be 2 advantages to the PS3 as obviously a higher userbase will result in greater sales of PS3 versions of games (this is already happening in Europe with games such as CoD 4 and Burnout Paradise) and so that is an incentive, but there is also the fact that games port to the 360 with far more ease from the PS3, than the other way around (though lead to inferior 360 versions of games).

Right I've rambled on enough, but thats my take.

Amen · 02-22-2008, 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GLOW

Broadband speeds haven't reached a proper level to download a full game yet. I'm guessing all next-gen games will be a minimum of 15GB. Also take into account that the HDD's would need to be huge too... like 1TB. Discs will still be the standard next gen. Maybe the PS5 and the Xbox 1080 games will be all DD.

well, i agree about downloading games and the monstrous file size. but i meant simply in regards to downloading movies. that's why i'm sure microsoft didn't care at all about the end of the hd dvd.

bboncorr · 02-22-2008, 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by steve444

Hey BB, didn't you tell all of us you made $400,000? Why would you quit that job and get into gaming where you won't be making that much?

Were you stretching the truth again??

Nope it's the honest truth.

So you feel people can't decide to do more then one thing. for all you know i'm a stock genius who took a few bucks and turned it into 400k in less then a year. i can choose to do as much as i want. people can own many companies without even being a part of that company. therfore it wouldn't take time from me if i did it right. it's not like i havn't helped companies grow before. business, negotiating, and poker seem to be things i'm good at.

as for not making that much................after that response i can see you're not experienced with this aspect of gaming. i'm pretty sure after that response the only thing you seem to know about gaming in general is picking up a controler and smashing buttons. many gaming startups when done right have profited millions since the gaming boom. hell a guy from real world took his company and turned it into a fairly profitable company in no time at all.

it's all about having the finances, the ability to realize you don't know enough about this so you need to hire someone to do it right, quality workers, and the ability to run the business yourself with confidence as it struggles early.

why not attempt since it's won't take a ton of financial resources and i can allways go back to doing what i do later.

oh yeah hot stock tip,

NETFLIX will be the next big boom ticket if they do the set top box right. so get in now or you will regret it later.

bboncorr · 02-22-2008, 09:55 AM

and rambling it was let me explain,

everyone seems to think making games is like making DVD's. you click burn and everying is placed in order by the chapters. well that's not the case. fact is BR is just as complex to work with in its own rights. you can't simply throw everything on a disk otherwise you are asking for a horriable gaming experience.

see devs need to account for limited bandwidth (since the ps3 has few bottlenecks. kinda like having a super charged engine and only 1 tail pipe and it has a hole in it) and a slow BD drive. that slow drive alone forces devs to double and even triple content all over the disk to cut down on horriable load times. DMC was a good example of how devs are trying to get around those bad load times.

quality compression techniques are not an option with BD and belive it or not compression is favored from devs. it's not like a movie dvd where when you burn it you need to cut out content just to get a quality picture since the compression isn't good enough. that's a bad misconception and everyone needs to get over that before this disk size discussion can honestly come to a conclusion.

while DVD-9 has lossless compression to benifit from. something BD has not been able to do. Procedural Synthesis look it up and learn what it's used for. also look up BD drive speed v.s. DVD drive speeds. look up bottlenecks v.s. consoles.

all these play a huge role in if BD is really being a benifit with gaming on the ps3.

Class is over boys and girls so don't forget your home work assignment.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeRox

Indeed maybe next gen it will be needed, I think it's more novelty value on the PS3 from a gaming front though. Of course developers love it, it means less optimisation as they don't have to tidy up the edges and can just dump everything on the disc (something that happened a lot with DVD games early on).

I don't get why anyone can deny if it's already in the console, having the extra capacity as an option is a bad thing though. Bizarre Creations openly admitted they had to make cuts to PGR4's weather system because it wouldn't all fit onto the DVD though requiring BD rather than DVD will certainly be the exception rather than the rule.

The main reason for Blu-rays use on every PS3 title is more to get more discs inproduction and drive down pressing costs and reliability in a faster time.

I mean a good selling PS3 title will sell more than 10x as much as a record breaking Blu-ray movie release for the forseeable future.

There is 1 reason to be excited about the PS3 and 1 reason only... Untapped potential. Look at the early PS2 releases such as Ridge Racer V, and compare them with the later releases such as Burnout 3and Burnout Revenge (the latter is an absolutely incredibly achievement imo). The visuals on the PS2 because of it's "poor" unbalanced architechture (raw power being the key component) improved leaps and bounds in it's lifespan, while GC and Xbox titles barely progressed with their balanced approach.

The PS3 has gone down a very similar route, it actually makes the hardware more versatile once developers get to grips with it, and allows things to be possible in afew years time that developers wouldn't dream of being able to do right now (there were so many little "tricks" developed for the Ps2 which is why Sony are having such a hard time getting emulation up to scratch, developers got things out of the Emotion Engine that weren't possible on paper). This is why even though the PS3 is only going toe to toe with the 360 in general right now, in the future I expect the gap to increase considerably between the 2 formats, especially if the PS3 becomes the lead platform when it's userbase surpasses the 360s later this year (unless a miracle happens, Microsoft drop into third by the end of the year).

That would be 2 advantages to the PS3 as obviously a higher userbase will result in greater sales of PS3 versions of games (this is already happening in Europe with games such as CoD 4 and Burnout Paradise) and so that is an incentive, but there is also the fact that games port to the 360 with far more ease from the PS3, than the other way around (though lead to inferior 360 versions of games).

Right I've rambled on enough, but thats my take.

GLOW · 02-22-2008, 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KEEBS1984

500gb hard drives are the norm. . .

There are currently 1 TB hard drives available for just over $300. You don't think in the next 5 years those things will be way cheaper?

Also broadband speeds aren't that slow. . . even today. Right now, if I want to downlaod something I will get 1.25 mb/s. Now I understand that it's still a bit slow to start downloading 10gb+ games, however, that said, if you look 5 years ago 100kb/s was really fast. We don't know where technology is heading or what it will hold in the future. What we do know is that both of these things are increasing, rapidly. Even as we post on this forum the cable and phone companies are laying down thousands upon thousands of miles of fiber optic cables in order to increase that bandwidth even more.

The digital download future is coming. . . it's just a matter of when. It might make the next generation of consoles, it might not. However, you can bet your ass Microsoft would love to be the one that says they "pioneered" the full digi-download sector of gaming. . .

KEEBS, you are forgetting that many gamers don't even go online with their consoles, and most of those gamers don't even have broadband connections. Are Sony, MS, and Nintendo just going to cut off these poor souls next gen? C'mon, college boy, you know better than that...

When high-speed broadband connections are available for less than $20 a month, it'll be a step in the right direction (I think I'm paying around $50/month for my current Comcast broadband). I imagine we'll go through a long transitional period before we see an all-download future like what we're seeing with Warhawk - available online for download or available in stores on disc.

Cygnus · 02-22-2008, 10:04 AM

Heh, there ya go bb take these kidz to skool

Speaking of skool did you see my reply about game skools?

Quote:

Originally Posted by bboncorr

Class is over boys and girls so don't forget your home work assignment.

Noct · 02-22-2008, 11:55 AM

I read it, and it has not been that way for me at all man...

I mean, I think it all depends on what aspect of game development you are looking at, but from the sound of bboncorr's post I get the impression he is thinking more along the business side of things then actually creating any games himself. What you were talking about sounded more like actual content creation, which in my experience heavily favors an education...

I have a degree in 3D animation and I tried for many years to get into the game industry with no luck. While what you said about mod making is definitely true (it helps), I never encountered one single company that implied to me that they were looking for homebrew type developers with no education. I've created and animated a half dozen Quake 3 models from the ground up, it didn't help me get a job in gaming... So, what you are saying is true, from a certain point of view. Going to some "game school" that advertises on TV is probably not going to help get you in the industry, but a CIS degree from an accredited college on the other hand...

Everything I was told when I was trying to break in was that two major things determine your worth to that industry, your demo reel and your fine arts education/ability. I was told by multiple HR people that I focused much too heavily on the technical aspects of game design at school and that I needed much more traditional art training.

Granted, I have been told that you can get hired on the strength of your demo or experience alone, but just like any other field, it is much easier to get your foot in the door when you have a solid education behind you. I'm pretty happy now doing educational software development, but if I could go back and do it all again I'd have taken nothing but art classes in college and made a better run at the game indstry.

bboncorr · 02-22-2008, 12:29 PM

yup you're right i'm thinking more along the lines of the business side of things but i'm going to try for some accredited classes and see how it goes. i won't make the jump unless i feel comfortable with what i can accomplish. it's a rather big investment and i have to be 100% sure i'm going to be good at it. i'm not looking to get a degree and going nuts trying to work 90hrs a week for some company and making $600 a week.

it's not a easy business to crack and when you do people get burned out early in their career.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Noct

I read it, and it has not been that way for me at all man...

I mean, I think it all depends on what aspect of game development you are looking at, but from the sound of bboncorr's post I get the impression he is thinking more along the business side of things then actually creating any games himself. What you were talking about sounded more like actual content creation, which in my experience heavily favors an education...

I have a degree in 3D animation and I tried for many years to get into the game industry with no luck. While what you said about mod making is definitely true (it helps), I never encountered one single company that implied to me that they were looking for homebrew type developers with no education. I've created and animated a half dozen Quake 3 models from the ground up, it didn't help me get a job in gaming... So, what you are saying is true, from a certain point of view. Going to some "game school" that advertises on TV is probably not going to help get you in the industry, but a CIS degree from an accredited college on the other hand...

Everything I was told when I was trying to break in was that two major things determine your worth to that industry, your demo reel and your fine arts education/ability. I was told by multiple HR people that I focused much too heavily on the technical aspects of game design at school and that I needed much more traditional art training.

Granted, I have been told that you can get hired on the strength of your demo or experience alone, but just like any other field, it is much easier to get your foot in the door when you have a solid education behind you. I'm pretty happy now doing educational software development, but if I could go back and do it all again I'd have taken nothing but art classes in college and made a better run at the game indstry.

bboncorr · 02-22-2008, 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GLOW

KEEBS, you are forgetting that many gamers don't even go online with their consoles, and most of those gamers don't even have broadband connections. Are Sony, MS, and Nintendo just going to cut off these poor souls next gen? C'mon, college boy, you know better than that...

When high-speed broadband connections are available for less than $20 a month, it'll be a step in the right direction (I think I'm paying around $50/month for my current Comcast broadband). I imagine we'll go through a long transitional period before we see an all-download future like what we're seeing with Warhawk - available online for download or available in stores on disc.

Comcast..........sucks. check if you have Verizon Fios in your area. for $50 a month i'm getting almost 20megs of download speed.

Cygnus · 02-22-2008, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Noct

I read it, and it has not been that way for me at all man...

I mean, I think it all depends on what aspect of game development you are looking at

True but starting off, most jobs will require you to pay your dues via the grunt work like programming... It is also the code side that has the most newer hires.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Noct

What you were talking about sounded more like actual content creation, which in my experience heavily favors an education...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Noct

I have a degree in 3D animation and I tried for many years to get into the game industry with no luck. While what you said about mod making is definitely true (it helps), I never encountered one single company that implied to me that they were looking for homebrew type developers with no education.

Education is always necessary. However most skools do not keep up with tech and the latest dev tools used in the industry. Education never ends, it is a neverending process...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Noct

Going to some "game school" that advertises on TV is probably not going to help get you in the industry, but a CIS degree from an accredited college on the other hand...

I agree but a CIS may be too general, comp sci or comp engineering may be better. CIS is geared more towards biz whereas comp sci/eng is more technical. CIS normally does not thoroughly cover c/c++/c sharp, etc but comp sci and comp engr generally do or at least give a better intro to those langs.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Noct

Everything I was told when I was trying to break in was that two major things determine your worth to that industry, your demo reel and your fine arts education/ability. I was told by multiple HR people that I focused much too heavily on the technical aspects of game design at school and that I needed much more traditional art training.

Yes, animation is more of the "artsy" side of game dev. It does involve more creativity than technical ability... The brother of a friend of mine works at midway. He was one of the lead animators of MK games. He has no degree but he could draw his a$$ off. The person I mentioned earlierwho used to work at Bungie also has no degree, but is exceptional at story telling.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Noct

Granted, I have been told that you can get hired on the strength of your demo or experience alone, but just like any other field, it is much easier to get your foot in the door when you have a solid education behind you.

I think we agree. It is always preferable to have a strong education. But having knowledge and experience of industry tools like XNA, Maya, game engine level design, etc are also a huge plus. And being creative is always paramount.

awol · 02-22-2008, 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bboncorr

Comcast..........sucks. check if you have Verizon Fios in your area. for $50 a month i'm getting almost 20megs of download speed.

Unfortunately, Verizon is not the incumbent local carrier (ILEC) everywhere in America. And for those of us that don't live where they are the local provider, we will not have access to FIoS at any point in the future. Other ILECs have also stated that they will not be deploying new fiber to the NID as the inital cost is to high. Even those that are re-investing in fiber like AT&T are only doing it to the node, and then you get DSL speeds from there.

I agree that FIoS would be ideal, but sadly it's not an option for the majority of the South, Midwest and Western part of the country.

Noct · 02-22-2008, 03:20 PM

Hell, I live about 10 minutes outside Albany, NY (the state capital) and I can't get FIOS. The Verizon headquarters for the entire region is only about a 10-15 minute drive from my house too....

Last time I called (about 3 months ago) they essentially told me not to hold my breath and then they tried to push DSL on me.

eiger · 02-22-2008, 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GLOW

For how long? I can virtually guarantee you the next Xbox will have a Blu-ray drive. Probably the PS4, too, and I think the Wii will follow suit.

Wrong.

awol · 02-22-2008, 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eiger

Wrong.

And the reason you think this is???

I too think both of the next Sony and MS consoles will utilize a higher speed BD drive. Nintendo I'm not so sure about unless their next console is a little more higher tech than a GameCube on a diet as it is now with the Wii.

bboncorr · 02-22-2008, 06:45 PM

good points as i'm sure i will be learning a ton of that over the next couple years. maybe one day i will be pming you for some pointers or info, same with you Noct.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cygnus

True but starting off, most jobs will require you to pay your dues via the grunt work like programming... It is also the code side that has the most newer hires.

Education is always necessary. However most skools do not keep up with tech and the latest dev tools used in the industry. Education never ends, it is a neverending process...

I agree but a CIS may be too general, comp sci or comp engineering may be better. CIS is geared more towards biz whereas comp sci/eng is more technical. CIS normally does not thoroughly cover c/c++/c sharp, etc but comp sci and comp engr generally do or at least give a better intro to those langs.

Yes, animation is more of the "artsy" side of game dev. It does involve more creativity than technical ability... The brother of a friend of mine works at midway. He was one of the lead animators of MK games. He has no degree but he could draw his a$$ off. The person I mentioned earlierwho used to work at Bungie also has no degree, but is exceptional at story telling.

I think we agree. It is always preferable to have a strong education. But having knowledge and experience of industry tools like XNA, Maya, game engine level design, etc are also a huge plus. And being creative is always paramount.

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02-22-2008, 11:55 AM	#37
Noct Toys in the attic... Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: NY Posts: 385	I read it, and it has not been that way for me at all man... I mean, I think it all depends on what aspect of game development you are looking at, but from the sound of bboncorr's post I get the impression he is thinking more along the business side of things then actually creating any games himself. What you were talking about sounded more like actual content creation, which in my experience heavily favors an education... I have a degree in 3D animation and I tried for many years to get into the game industry with no luck. While what you said about mod making is definitely true (it helps), I never encountered one single company that implied to me that they were looking for homebrew type developers with no education. I've created and animated a half dozen Quake 3 models from the ground up, it didn't help me get a job in gaming... So, what you are saying is true, from a certain point of view. Going to some "game school" that advertises on TV is probably not going to help get you in the industry, but a CIS degree from an accredited college on the other hand... Everything I was told when I was trying to break in was that two major things determine your worth to that industry, your demo reel and your fine arts education/ability. I was told by multiple HR people that I focused much too heavily on the technical aspects of game design at school and that I needed much more traditional art training. Granted, I have been told that you can get hired on the strength of your demo or experience alone, but just like any other field, it is much easier to get your foot in the door when you have a solid education behind you. I'm pretty happy now doing educational software development, but if I could go back and do it all again I'd have taken nothing but art classes in college and made a better run at the game indstry.

02-22-2008, 03:20 PM	#42
Noct Toys in the attic... Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: NY Posts: 385	Hell, I live about 10 minutes outside Albany, NY (the state capital) and I can't get FIOS. The Verizon headquarters for the entire region is only about a 10-15 minute drive from my house too.... Last time I called (about 3 months ago) they essentially told me not to hold my breath and then they tried to push DSL on me.