Analysts agree Blu ray victory will help PS3 outsell Xbox 360

GLOW · 02-21-2008, 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kamspy

Epic begs to differ
http://kotaku.com/gaming/chocolate-r...ray-289595.php

Naughty Dog too
http://arstechnica.com/journals/thum...tophe-balestra

Insomniac
http://kotaku.com/gaming/blu_ray/ins...isc-199788.php

Ubisoft is loving it for FarCry 2
http://www.slashgear.com/ubisoft-lov...ve-1510280.php

Infinity Ward is a fan
http://play.tm/story/14712

Anything else I can debunk for you today?

Thanks for posting those links, kamspy. I think some people on this forum don't want to believe that you need more than a standard DVD-9 to fit a 1080p/60 game with high quality visuals and audio. In the next gen, more space WILL be needed and the only real option is Blu-ray.

pearl-drum-man · 02-21-2008, 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Noct

I sincerely doubt that...

The devs have spoken, they hate BD. They claim this generation of games does not need the space and it has caused them nothing but trouble since it has the slowest read-rate of any optical media on the market.

Maybe a hardware generation or two forward when people have the new "ultra high def" displays they are working on in Japan. At that point we would need the extra space to store texture files that large, but until then I don't see it happening.

There is no need for BD in consoles, it inflates hardware manufacturing costs and makes games more difficult to program, which inflates dev costs.

Don't be fooled into thinking Sony was on some progressive gaming wavelength when they stuffed the BD in there, it was done to get more BD players into houses, not advance gaming...

Besides, even while it might be remotely possible for MS, Nintendo would never do that. If you haven't noticed, they are caterting to a more casual market and lower hardware costs these days. If they were worried about keeping thier hardware state of the art they woudl never have released the Wii, which is pretty much a GameCube with motion sensing controllers.

I suspect by the time the next gen comes to pass it will be useful to have that space. As for cost of hardware and development, hopefully in 5-10 years the costs of Blu-ray will come down a little bit

.

Noct · 02-21-2008, 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kamspy

Anything else I can debunk for you today?

Heh, you think 5 people's opinions "debunks" something? I bet if you sat in the Jerry Springer green room you could find more people then that who had slept with a family member, it doesn't mean it's the normally accepted standard...

My point being, I have seen it mentioned time and time again that BD complicates development; I didn't pull this notion out of my butt, I couldn't care less which system is easier to develop for.

I'm not going to spend two hours hunting down every interview I've ever seen that talked about the pain in the rear BD is for development, but I'll throw you a couple:

Jason Booth (helped create Rock Band) -
http://jbooth.blogspot.com/2007/10/p...-and-spin.html
"Uh, Blue Ray!"

"Great for watching movies, but not so great for games. Getting data off the blue ray drive takes about twice as long as it does to get the same data off the 360's DVD drive. That translates into longer load times, or god forbid if your streaming from disk, tighter constraints on the amount of data you can stream."

Todd Howard (PS3 Oblivion team) -
http://www.gamesetwatch.com/2007/01/..._double_to.php
"Drive speed matters more to me [than capacity], and Blu-ray is slower"
"the PS3 Oblivion team compensated for the slower drive by duplicating data across the Blu-ray disc, making it faster to find and load."

Directly from your Naughty Dog link:
Christophe Balestra -
"We're using the hard drive to pre-cache data from the Blu-Ray disc."
Granted, he states that BD was a necessity for development, but there is no denying that all the installing and caching to the HDD is just a sidestep to the problem, not some admission of the greatness of BD.

Outside of those, just look at the hoops Capcom has had to jump through to get their games running on Ps3. Huge installs to the HDD that can take up to a half-hour sometimes, and all because of the speed of BD; are you honestly telling me developers don't care about these issues?
http://www.n4g.com/ps3/News-112187.aspx

Also, I have read multiple reports from the dev teams of games like Assassins Creed, GTA4 and Burnout that production on all of those titles was held back by the difficulty programming for the PS3. Granted, some of those issues have to do with the cell processor, but I know a big part of the issue is the slow read rate of the BD as well.
http://www.psxextreme.com/ps3-news/2518.html

As a developer myself (Flash) I spend a large majority of my time optimizing things so they take up less space, it is a part of the game. When developers say they "need" the extra space of BD I say its a crutch. Take a look at Gears of War or Call of Duty and then tell me you "need" 50 gigs to make a beautiful amazing game. CoD is simply the best looking (and arguably best FPS) console game ever made and it is on a DVD9...

I'm not saying that dev's couldn't use the extra space, I'm saying that most of them would trade read-rate for extra space any day of the week, myself included. If you told me I could throw my filesize restictions out the window but I got less power to run everything, I would tell you to piss up a rope. I'd much rather optimize my graphics that deal with a slower process.

Quote:

Originally Posted by GLOW

Thanks for posting those links, kamspy. I think some people on this forum don't want to believe that you need more than a standard DVD-9 to fit a 1080p/60 game with high quality visuals and audio. In the next gen, more space WILL be needed and the only real option is Blu-ray.

Look man, as hard as it may be for someone as format baised as you appear to be to believe, some of us really don't have an emotional attachment to a specific type of plastic disk. I honestly couldn't care less what the next optical media is, all I care about is how good the games are. The vast majority of developers I have read interviews from have pretty unilaterally said that the extra space on the BD is a luxury that is not worth the trade off to get.

I wouldn't argue that the next gen may well need more space on the disks, I just don't think the current BD as we know it is what the answer will be. I will argue all day however that a game on dvd9 cannot produce "high quality visuals and audio". There is a reason 360 games review higher (on average) then Ps3 games do my man, and it isn't baised reviewers. If the developer is skilled enough, he can always work with less space. Just look at how beautiful some of the 360 games are and tell me that you can't produce high quality visuals on a dvd9...

Quote:

Originally Posted by awol

Is it that they hate BD? or is it that they hate the slow read speads of the current BD drive in the PS3? It is currently slower than what's possible with DVD, but it will get better.

You make a really strong point. If drive read-rates can be effectively sped up on newer BD drives going forward that would absolutely swing things in another direction. I'm talking about the current BD we have now. I mean, lets face it, how long do you really think MS will ride the 360 before it puts out a new machine...
If the Ps3 really does begin to compete with them this year they will start working on their new machine immediately. (If they haven't already)

KEEBS1984 · 02-21-2008, 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GLOW

For how long? I can virtually guarantee you the next Xbox will have a Blu-ray drive. Probably the PS4, too, and I think the Wii will follow suit.

For however long people still buy them. Blu-ray won the HDM war, but it's still a far cry from becoming the medium for anything else. . . DVD is still used in 2/3 consoles, and Blu-ray disc movie sales still pale in comparison to DVD.

I don't know how long DVD will last exactly, certainly at least another 5 years.

Will Microsoft or Nintendo use Blu-ray for their next systems? Shit if I know. . . I don't work for either corporation and neither has made any announcements. If I had to lay down my bets I'd say that Microsoft might use BD technology for their games. Nintendo, on the other hand, probably will not.

Nintendo does not like to use other corporations technology, before the GameCube all of their systems mediums were proprietary. The only reason why they are using DVDs now is because they built up a strained relationship with Toshiba during the GC phase when they decided they would only use mini-DVDs. If they don't use DVDs next generation you can count on them developing their own medium as opposed to using one of their competitor's mediums. Somehow I don't think Nintendo is gonna jump into Sony's bed so fast. . . Actually on that note, I believe Nintendo and SanDisk have been building a relationship. Perhaps Nintendo's next medium for games will be a flash cartridge? Who knows how much prices might drop in the next 3 years. . .

P.S. Yes I know Sony doesn't "own" BD but they have a large enough stake in it that it could be off-putting.

P.P.S. As always I could be wrong, I'm not an analyst or any such nonsense. Just an observer.

bboncorr · 02-21-2008, 07:21 PM

it's like your some sorry excuse for a sports beat writer and you specialize in misquoting people and putting things out of context. i stated "maybe" when it came to the next playstation. i also explained why it's a maybe not a definate. any reasonable person without an agenda would have picked that up.

glad to see you choose long term instead of enjoying your gaming long term. while you have been waiting for that day i have been enjoying my xbox360 and when ps3 takes over i will keep enjoying gaming to the fullest extent.

Quote:

Originally Posted by steve444

I'm sure you have a reason for contradicting yourself within 3 sentences. I won't go off on you like I do to others. But I'm curious...what's your rational?
It still seems like the PS3 will last a solid 7 years without another console (I hope I'm right). I hope another 10. But I believe Sony will have a huge focus on the PS3 considering it's bringing on more and more blu ray customers.
As you already know, I knew PS3 and blu ray was long term. It just made simple sense. Hense the purchase of me purchasing it. So far I'm right. Only time will tell.

mshulman · 02-21-2008, 07:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KEEBS1984

Will Microsoft or Nintendo use Blu-ray for their next systems? Shit if I know. . . I don't work for either corporation and neither has made any announcements. If I had to lay down my bets I'd say that Microsoft might use BD technology for their games. Nintendo, on the other hand, probably will not.

I'm sure Microsoft will use something besides DVD. Would there really be anything preventing them from using HD DVD's? Just because it is done as a movie format, doesn't mean they could resurect it as a proprietary format for their next console.

Either way - I would be very surprised if MS didn't use a larger capacity disc for their next console. While I don't think it is NEEDED this gen, it certainly is desired by some and likely will be needed next gen.

sufs · 02-21-2008, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Noct

Heh, you think 5 people's opinions "debunks" something? I bet if you sat in the Jerry Springer green room you could find more people then that who had slept with a family member, it doesn't mean it's the normally accepted standard...

My point being, I have seen it mentioned time and time again that BD complicates development; I didn't pull this notion out of my butt, I couldn't care less which system is easier to develop for.

I'm not going to spend two hours hunting down every interview I've ever seen that talked about the pain in the rear BD is for development, but I'll throw you a couple:

Jason Booth (helped create Rock Band) -
http://jbooth.blogspot.com/2007/10/p...-and-spin.html
"Uh, Blue Ray!"

"Great for watching movies, but not so great for games. Getting data off the blue ray drive takes about twice as long as it does to get the same data off the 360's DVD drive. That translates into longer load times, or god forbid if your streaming from disk, tighter constraints on the amount of data you can stream."

Todd Howard (PS3 Oblivion team) -
http://www.gamesetwatch.com/2007/01/..._double_to.php
"Drive speed matters more to me [than capacity], and Blu-ray is slower"
"the PS3 Oblivion team compensated for the slower drive by duplicating data across the Blu-ray disc, making it faster to find and load."

Directly from your Naughty Dog link:
Christophe Balestra -
"We're using the hard drive to pre-cache data from the Blu-Ray disc."
Granted, he states that BD was a necessity for development, but there is no denying that all the installing and caching to the HDD is just a sidestep to the problem, not some admission of the greatness of BD.

Outside of those, just look at the hoops Capcom has had to jump through to get their games running on Ps3. Huge installs to the HDD that can take up to a half-hour sometimes, and all because of the speed of BD; are you honestly telling me developers don't care about these issues?
http://www.n4g.com/ps3/News-112187.aspx

Also, I have read multiple reports from the dev teams of games like Assassins Creed, GTA4 and Burnout that production on all of those titles was held back by the difficulty programming for the PS3. Granted, some of those issues have to do with the cell processor, but I know a big part of the issue is the slow read rate of the BD as well.
http://www.psxextreme.com/ps3-news/2518.html

As a developer myself (Flash) I spend a large majority of my time optimizing things so they take up less space, it is a part of the game. When developers say they "need" the extra space of BD I say its a crutch. Take a look at Gears of War or Call of Duty and then tell me you "need" 50 gigs to make a beautiful amazing game. CoD is simply the best looking (and arguably best FPS) console game ever made and it is on a DVD9...

I'm not saying that dev's couldn't use the extra space, I'm saying that most of them would trade read-rate for extra space any day of the week, myself included. If you told me I could throw my filesize restictions out the window but I got less power to run everything, I would tell you to piss up a rope. I'd much rather optimize my graphics that deal with a slower process.

Look man, as hard as it may be for someone as format baised as you appear to be to believe, some of us really don't have an emotional attachment to a specific type of plastic disk. I honestly couldn't care less what the next optical media is, all I care about is how good the games are. The vast majority of developers I have read interviews from have pretty unilaterally said that the extra space on the BD is a luxury that is not worth the trade off to get.

I wouldn't argue that the next gen may well need more space on the disks, I just don't think the current BD as we know it is what the answer will be. I will argue all day however that a game on dvd9 cannot produce "high quality visuals and audio". There is a reason 360 games review higher (on average) then Ps3 games do my man, and it isn't baised reviewers. If the developer is skilled enough, he can always work with less space. Just look at how beautiful some of the 360 games are and tell me that you can't produce high quality visuals on a dvd9...

You make a really strong point. If drive read-rates can be effectively sped up on newer BD drives going forward that would absolutely swing things in another direction. I'm talking about the current BD we have now. I mean, lets face it, how long do you really think MS will ride the 360 before it puts out a new machine...
If the Ps3 really does begin to compete with them this year they will start working on their new machine immediately. (If they haven't already)

Great post all very true

. I happen to be one of the people whom thinks DVD9 is not cutting it, games on the 360 for the most part are quite short although I do admit their are exceptions. As you said though smart developers will find a way, and besides I don't see why multiple discs are such taboo.

As for the PS3 increasing the drive speed I think Sony should definitely look into that and that way developers can make games without the constraints of the current 1x drive. They can keep the hard drive install for people with older systems and let people with the faster drives avoid them all together.

Type A · 02-21-2008, 08:32 PM

While it speaks of br as a movie format, it also speaks to M$'s thoughts on br in general. Hell, Id like to think the next xbox will use br, but this article has some interesting statements:

"Microsoft is unlikely to ever manufacture a Blu-ray player itself, says Matt Rosoff, an analyst with Directions on Microsoft, an independent research firm. "Historically Microsoft hasn't been willing to pay royalties," he explains, "so they will never build a Blu-ray player directly into the Xbox."

"The fundamental problem with Blu-ray from the Microsoft point of view is that it uses Java from Sun(JAVA - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr)," says Mercer."

http://www.thestreet.com/s/blu-ray-v...l?puc=googlefi

Is dl hddvd for gaming not possible for the next xbox?

steve444 · 02-21-2008, 08:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bboncorr

it's like your some sorry excuse for a sports beat writer and you specialize in misquoting people and putting things out of context. i stated "maybe" when it came to the next playstation. i also explained why it's a maybe not a definate. any reasonable person without an agenda would have picked that up.

glad to see you choose long term instead of enjoying your gaming long term. while you have been waiting for that day i have been enjoying my xbox360 and when ps3 takes over i will keep enjoying gaming to the fullest extent.

No agenda...just questioning your contradiction. You said, MAYBE a new Playstation within 10 years. Then you say Sony IS NOT thinking about PS4.
So that is a contradiction.

And I love my gaming! I still play everyday. Who said "instead of enjoying my gaming long term"? Oh yea that was you. You know what I play and how often. What a stupid dumbass comment that was. Not only are you not been posting as many links to your OPINIONS (which apparently must be true because you said so) but you're also giving me crap for what YOU said?
That doesn't cut it for me.

steve444 · 02-21-2008, 08:36 PM

Hey BB, didn't you tell all of us you made $400,000? Why would you quit that job and get into gaming where you won't be making that much?

Were you stretching the truth again??

Amen · 02-21-2008, 09:39 PM

My understanding is that Microsoft is highly invested in the digital download, and is hoping to make Blu-Ray and HD obsolete. My assumption is that Toshiba was the highest bidder to create an HD-DVD add on for the console, especially seeing as how Microsoft wasn't going to license hardware from a competitor for their system.

Anyhow, the XBox Live marketplace offers HD downloads of movies that were supposedly "Blu-Ray only" because the format war doesn't apply to the digital world. That's why you could watch Pirates of the Caribbean in Hi-Def glory without a Blu-Ray disc. So yeah, Microsoft might really just want us to abandon discs altogether, and pay the equivalent of about $5 for a 24 hour rental.

Cygnus · 02-21-2008, 09:44 PM

HD-DVD is dead..right? Maybe toshiba will sell the tech cheap? M$ could find ways to use it

Quote:

Originally Posted by Type A

Is dl hddvd for gaming not possible for the next xbox?

GLOW · 02-21-2008, 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amen

My understanding is that Microsoft is highly invested in the digital download, and is hoping to make Blu-Ray and HD obsolete. My assumption is that Toshiba was the highest bidder to create an HD-DVD add on for the console, especially seeing as how Microsoft wasn't going to license hardware from a competitor for their system.

Anyhow, the XBox Live marketplace offers HD downloads of movies that were supposedly "Blu-Ray only" because the format war doesn't apply to the digital world. That's why you could watch Pirates of the Caribbean in Hi-Def glory without a Blu-Ray disc. So yeah, Microsoft might really just want us to abandon discs altogether, and pay the equivalent of about $5 for a 24 hour rental.

Broadband speeds haven't reached a proper level to download a full game yet. I'm guessing all next-gen games will be a minimum of 15GB. Also take into account that the HDD's would need to be huge too... like 1TB. Discs will still be the standard next gen. Maybe the PS5 and the Xbox 1080 games will be all DD.

joey82083 · 02-21-2008, 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GLOW

Broadband speeds haven't reached a proper level to download a full game yet. I'm guessing all next-gen games will be a minimum of 15GB. Also take into account that the HDD's would need to be huge too... like 1TB. Discs will still be the standard next gen. Maybe the PS5 and the Xbox 1080 games will be all DD.

I remember having The Sega Channel that my cable company provided at least 13 years ago. Those were full games that were streamed to my sega genesis. I know that was nowhere near the content of the games we have now, but it was also nowhere near the speeds at which cable/DSL can stream to homes now. I think that the next consoles will be download only games.

http://www.retrojunk.com/details_articles/1458/

KEEBS1984 · 02-21-2008, 11:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GLOW

Broadband speeds haven't reached a proper level to download a full game yet. I'm guessing all next-gen games will be a minimum of 15GB. Also take into account that the HDD's would need to be huge too... like 1TB. Discs will still be the standard next gen. Maybe the PS5 and the Xbox 1080 games will be all DD.

500gb hard drives are the norm. . .

There are currently 1 TB hard drives available for just over $300. You don't think in the next 5 years those things will be way cheaper?

Also broadband speeds aren't that slow. . . even today. Right now, if I want to downlaod something I will get 1.25 mb/s. Now I understand that it's still a bit slow to start downloading 10gb+ games, however, that said, if you look 5 years ago 100kb/s was really fast. We don't know where technology is heading or what it will hold in the future. What we do know is that both of these things are increasing, rapidly. Even as we post on this forum the cable and phone companies are laying down thousands upon thousands of miles of fiber optic cables in order to increase that bandwidth even more.

The digital download future is coming. . . it's just a matter of when. It might make the next generation of consoles, it might not. However, you can bet your ass Microsoft would love to be the one that says they "pioneered" the full digi-download sector of gaming. . .

02-21-2008, 08:32 PM	#23
Type A 1080 Optical Supporter Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Panama City, Fl Age: 38 Posts: 2,724	While it speaks of br as a movie format, it also speaks to M$'s thoughts on br in general. Hell, Id like to think the next xbox will use br, but this article has some interesting statements: "Microsoft is unlikely to ever manufacture a Blu-ray player itself, says Matt Rosoff, an analyst with Directions on Microsoft, an independent research firm. "Historically Microsoft hasn't been willing to pay royalties," he explains, "so they will never build a Blu-ray player directly into the Xbox." "The fundamental problem with Blu-ray from the Microsoft point of view is that it uses Java from Sun(JAVA - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr)," says Mercer." http://www.thestreet.com/s/blu-ray-v...l?puc=googlefi Is dl hddvd for gaming not possible for the next xbox? __________________ Mitsubishi HC3000U HD projector Dual Optoma 106" screens Harman Kardon AVR-7000 receiver Bose 901 VI, 301 IV, VCS 10 Bose AM-6 Series III Sony STR-DG600 receiver JVC GR-HD1 HD camcorder Xbox 360 Pro / PS3 40 Gig HD DVD 0 / Blu Ray 15 Games 18 / Games 2 Gateway 901x HTPC (modified) Sling Box Pro w/HD Connect Cable Dish 211 receiver w/Absolute HD pack HP Pavilion dv-6000 laptop (HTPC2GO) Link-Theater Gallery - 100,000+ views Link-55 Restoration Updated 6/21/08

02-21-2008, 09:39 PM	#26
Amen Toshiba Regza 40in Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Brooklyn, NY Age: 26 Posts: 19	My understanding is that Microsoft is highly invested in the digital download, and is hoping to make Blu-Ray and HD obsolete. My assumption is that Toshiba was the highest bidder to create an HD-DVD add on for the console, especially seeing as how Microsoft wasn't going to license hardware from a competitor for their system. Anyhow, the XBox Live marketplace offers HD downloads of movies that were supposedly "Blu-Ray only" because the format war doesn't apply to the digital world. That's why you could watch Pirates of the Caribbean in Hi-Def glory without a Blu-Ray disc. So yeah, Microsoft might really just want us to abandon discs altogether, and pay the equivalent of about $5 for a 24 hour rental. __________________ XBox Live: Amen Barksdale PSN: AmenBk BB Pin: 242EF303 Let's play!

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02-21-2008, 08:36 PM	#25
steve444 High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 61	Hey BB, didn't you tell all of us you made $400,000? Why would you quit that job and get into gaming where you won't be making that much? Were you stretching the truth again??