Blu-ray vs. HD DVD and DVD

**bruceames** · 03-17-2007, 01:30 PM

With the recent declaration that the BDA wants to snuff out DVD within three years, it has come to my attention that this war is really BD against both HD DVD and DVD. In such a case, I would think that the odds are definitely against them. Here's a take on this:

Quote:

Actually, the difference between the two formats' approach to SD was clear at the very beginning. Blu-ray always intended to replace and displace SD. That would shift royalties from DVD to Blu-ray. Blu-ray's hottest seller, the PS3, was never intended to do upconversion very well, because the name of the game was to make Blu-ray the new standard. HD DVD, on the other hand, was always intended by Toshiba and others to be an upgrade built upon the DVD standard, but preserving the "legacy" support for DVD through excellent upconversion. The HD in the HD DVD logo shows this intent quite evidently. The Blu-ray logo erases DVD from the picture altogether.

The HD DVD/DVD combo is just another example of the intent of HD DVD to ease the transition from DVD to HD DVD without burning that bridge altogether. In fact, people want both and like both for different reasons. The popularity of Denon, Oppo, and other upconverting DVD players -- including Toshiba's own HD DVD players -- demonstrates that the public is not interested in sending their DVD collection to the landfill anytime soon. Furthermore, Toshiba understands that it can profit from both DVD and HD DVD in fees and royalties. Toshiba has a huge stake in DVD. A Blu-ray only HD world would not serve the interests of very many companies, especially those with money in DVD. It would not even serve the interests of Blu-ray exclusive studios, who would see their profits dry up if they published only on Blu-ray. They would have to bite the bullet and sacrifice DVD profits for many years (not three) in order to get exclusive market share for Blu-ray.

But this PR "revelation" does reveal the ultimate motivations of Blu-ray, or at least of some in the Blu-ray group -- a Blu-ray monopoly of movie formats. Blu-ray is at war with both DVD and HD DVD. This may be a bit like those ill-advised "rulers" of the past who tried to invade Russia and found that the geography was just too big to conquer. IMHO, DVD is the "Russia" of disk formats. It is not like VHS, not even like LD. It is here to stay for a long time. Toshiba has decided to work with and continue to support -- in excellent fashion -- this giant mainstay of movie formats. Blu-ray has decided (or pehaps mostly Sony) to make war against the giant. This difference between Blu-ray and HD DVD doesn't surprise me, and it shouldn't surprise anyone who has followed the tactics, stated goals, and hardware of both camps.

Personally, I prefer the notion of evolution based upon DVD over absolute replacement of DVD. I think this idea is more consumer-friendly, pragmatic, and reality-based. It also makes me comfortable with my 500+ DVDs, some of which are classic, independent, foreign, documentary, and specialty disks which will never see a Blu-ray version. I can't stand to look at VHS on my 106" screen, but DVD with Toshiba upconversion from a good transfer (such as from Criterion and other first-rate producers -- is quite acceptable and even essential when it comes to certain films. Blu-ray eventual replacement of DVD -- through studio "blockades" of DVD production) would mean a content dominance that would make lots of films of interest to me vanish altogether. Even if this dominance could occur -- and it is not realistic to believe it ever will -- it would mean the dominance of popular blockbuster action films. I don't think it would be good for a handful of major studios to decide what everyone is going to like, although this would make economic sense for them.

The good news is that if Sony et alii should achieve this, it might evoke consumer disgust with the real motivations of commercialized digital media and drive folks back to the theaters to see real films again. Of course, it is Sony's intent to dominate that segment as well and to replace film projectors with DLP displays, beginning with the cineplexes they own. Sony's dream is that of a digital Blu-ray Sony dominated movie experience, from movie theater to home theater. Definitely, whatever that dream might cost the consumer aesthetically, it would surely benefit Sony's bottom line which -- by the way -- is what the "movie industry" has been about for quite some time -- to shape consumer tastes to fit market goals. Indeed, there are folks on this forum who have even forgotten how films are supposed to look. They don't like the "grain" of film and they relish in the often "cartoon-like" crispness of digital transfers.

It is all about shaping consumer preferences it is not about responding to consumer needs or desires. We will never get the "best technology" we will get the technology that yields the highest profit for certain players in the game. If quality had been king, the cassette audio standard and not the vinyl one would have declined. Vinyl sounds better than cassette, but it is also more expensive to make. Vinyl even sounds better than CD -- due to problems of sample rates and compression on CDs, but CDs are so damn cheap to produce -- a little piece of plastic inside a case of plastic with very little printing of cover art.

But I digress. In the end, we may get the movie standard that is forced upon us, and in that event we will learn to live with it (including its DRM, high prices, and other problems). This characterization may apply better to Blu-ray, since HD DVD doesn't seem to be aggressively forcing its standard over DVD. "Upconversion" is another term for "legacy support." The problem with those standards that do not have legacy support is that they have lots of trouble getting supported. The Blu-ray machines that don't play CDs haven't gone over very well, at least if this can be shown by the announced Sony player which will play CDs. People don't want legacy support abandoned in a period of three or even ten years. If Sony and/or Blu-ray really believes what is promised in the OP's link, then they are headed for nowhere guided by a monstrous miscalculation.

godson · 03-17-2007, 01:32 PM

Thats insane. I posted the number somewhere last week and I believe the number was somewhere in the millions of DVD's sold last Quarter alone...nobodies touching that anytime soon.

unotis · 03-17-2007, 01:55 PM

Now that post puts the total format war and it's implications into easy to understand terms and spells out why the HD DVD format would be better for the consumer to adopt.

The Blu-ray fanboys will of course hate it and attack in anyway they can dream up (probably mostly through use of Sony press releases declaring their formats inevitable and soon to happen victory and made up statistics showing their ever increasing lead).

Let the flaming begin!!

Lee Stewart · 03-17-2007, 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by godson

Thats insane. I posted the number somewhere last week and I believe the number was somewhere in the millions of DVD's sold last Quarter alone...nobodies touching that anytime soon.

The number was 120 million DVD's sold in 4th Qtr. 2006.

The post is a very good one. It is again well thought out and has a heavy dose of "reality" throughout it. Whether readers agree with it or not will be the test of their own concept of reality.

**PFC5** · 03-17-2007, 03:08 PM

That is an excellent post, and does explain a few things about the decisions that Sony has made.

godson · 03-17-2007, 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

The number was 120 million DVD's sold in 4th Qtr. 2006.

The post is a very good one. It is again well thought out and has a heavy dose of "reality" throughout it. Whether readers agree with it or not will be the test of their own concept of reality.

It was a 120 million right? See...I mean how the hell could one imagine to sniff those kinda numbers anytime soon...like even over the next decade it seems unlikely. IDK...Sony is really insane sometimes. This has nothing to do with bashing as others have pointed out,simply about reality and the ability to face it.

**PFC5** · 03-17-2007, 03:38 PM

I do not get it either other than Sony's ego is the size of the planet. That is the only thing I can think of as to WHY they think they will replace SD DVD with BD in 3 years. They should be trying to replace HD DVD within 3 years first.

godson · 03-17-2007, 03:43 PM

And even that seem unlikely to all but the hardcore BD guys right? SD DVD will not be going anywhere in 3 years,thats ridiculous...theres way too much involved.

**PFC5** · 03-17-2007, 03:48 PM

For one, everyone that has a SD DVD player will not own a HDTV in 3 years, nevermind be willing to replace them all for a BD version.

Sony is going insane I think THAT is what has inflated their ego beyond biblical proportions.

unotis · 03-17-2007, 05:08 PM

Yes, in this one instance Sony is crazy but, they have their fanboys fully convinced that everything they say is the gospel truth, that "Bluray will rule the earth" and reveal to us common mortals the true meaning of trueHD so we may bask in it's glory!

Kinda of sad isn't it because I truly love alot of their products.

Lee Stewart · 03-17-2007, 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PFC5

For one, everyone that has a SD DVD player will not own a HDTV in 3 years, nevermind be willing to replace them all for a BD version.

Sony is going insane I think THAT is what has inflated their ego beyond biblical proportions.

Nope . . . Sony is not going insane. They are above genius level . . . off the scale. . . make Albert Einstein look like a moron.

They are focused on the ultimate prize of all time. And here it is:

$277 BILLION DOLLARS

And that should end all the discussions about why we have a format war and why Sony and the BDA is trying by ANY means to convinve the public that Blu-Ray Disc is the best thing to happen to mankind since the invention of fire . . .and the wheel.

That $277 Billion dollars is the amount of money that will be spent over the next 10 years on "DVD" format. As opposed to $98 billion for box office sales of the movies used to make "DVDs."

Want to buy a plasma TV - 8 manufacturers (not real #)

Want to buy an LCD TV - 20 manufacturers (not real #)

Want to buy an HD Disc movie - 2 manufacturers

Impossible to take over Plasma or LCD - too much competiton

Very easy to take over HD Disc - just get rid of 1 competitor.

And you call Sony/BDA crazy?

If it becomes a BD universe . . . they keep it all.

**PFC5** · 03-17-2007, 05:37 PM

Yes I do because they are stating something and devised a plan that is impossible to accomplish. Just because there is so much money at stake, does not mean they can do it. I want to fly without a machine and people would pay me millions/billions to see me do it, but it does not mean that I CAN or could EVER do it.

See the dilemma for Sony now?

What are they going to say in 3 years when SD DVD is STILL the top media for the consumer? They will have boxed themselves into a corner and WILL look foolish. Mark my words!

**bruceames** · 03-17-2007, 05:47 PM

Price is the way to get the penetration they desire. To kill off DVD in three years they would have to:

1) Sell BD players at $50 or preferably $30.

2) Put out the BD version of ALL available DVD content

3) Offer a "rewards" program, along the line of that existing DVD players and movies can be traded in for the BD versions and they will go to your house to do it (setup help included for those interested) and have a huge truck ready outside to replace all the DVDs with identical BDs. To encourage full cooperation in this takeover plan, a free 32" LCD HDTV would be included to reel in the last of the holdouts.

However, if any of the above steps are omitted, DVD will be here for a very long time. Just waaaay too much content, waaaay too many SD TVs and DVDs and waaaay too many people who just don't give a damn about HD and would rather pay 1 cent less for a movie whether it's SD or HD.

Trying to fight DVD and HD DVD at the same time just creates too many bad guys in my opinion. That would eventually include the consumer.

**PFC5** · 03-17-2007, 05:54 PM

YUP!

That IS about what it would take to get rid of SD DVD.

Lee Stewart · 03-17-2007, 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PFC5

Yes I do because they are stating something and devised a plan that is impossible to accomplish. Just because there is so much money at stake, does not mean they can do it. I want to fly without a machine and people would pay me millions/billions to see me do it, but it does not mean that I CAN or could EVER do it.

See the dilemma for Sony now?

What are they going to say in 3 years when SD DVD is STILL the top media for the consumer? They will have boxed themselves into a corner and WILL look foolish. Mark my words!

Don't lose focus on that prize. Too valuable.

Sony has a VERY good marketing dept. Within 1 year they have managed to convince the public that anything less than TRUE HD (1080P) is not good.

FACT: easier and cheaper for LCD to go 1080P than PDP.

Sony saw an opportunity to convince the public, and at the same time, promote what Sony has to sell (LCD). . . at a far lower price than it's competition (PDP).

How do we tell this has been successful?

1. We see posters here at HDF, all the time use those words "TRUE HD."

2. First Victim - Phillips - will only sell PDP in USA and Australia.

3. Second Victum - PDP manufacturers in general. Sales were up between 100% and 125%

. . . profits were up 2%

Like I said Sony IS crazy . . . crazy like a fox!

03-17-2007, 01:32 PM	#2
godson Mr. Bill Belecheeeeek. Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: philadelphia Posts: 2,592	Thats insane. I posted the number somewhere last week and I believe the number was somewhere in the millions of DVD's sold last Quarter alone...nobodies touching that anytime soon. __________________ Breakfast, shmreakfast. Look at the score, for Christ's sake. It's only the second period and I'm up 12 to 2. Breakfasts come and go, Renee, but Hartford, "the Whale," they only beat Vancouver once, maybe twice in a lifetime.

03-17-2007, 03:08 PM	#5
PFC5 Super Moderator Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 28,349	That is an excellent post, and does explain a few things about the decisions that Sony has made. __________________ Denon AVR-887 Klipsch RP-5 Pwred Towers (mains) (525 watts peak each 12"Subs) All Klipsch RC-25(ctr),(2)SS1(surr),(2)SS1(rearSurr) Toshiba (2)HD-A20,PS3,BD35 For SACD/DVD-A Samsung HD-841 Panny 50pz80u plasma SETTINGS RCA HD50LPW162 50"DLP w/HD2+ SA 3250HD 47" LCD+Yamaha5790+HD-A1(bedroom) Harmony 680 + (2) 670s (amazing remote/support) Game room with Onkyo receiver & B&W Speakers The_Cable_Game Take the high ground and be happier

03-17-2007, 03:38 PM	#7
PFC5 Super Moderator Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 28,349	I do not get it either other than Sony's ego is the size of the planet. That is the only thing I can think of as to WHY they think they will replace SD DVD with BD in 3 years. They should be trying to replace HD DVD within 3 years first. __________________ Denon AVR-887 Klipsch RP-5 Pwred Towers (mains) (525 watts peak each 12"Subs) All Klipsch RC-25(ctr),(2)SS1(surr),(2)SS1(rearSurr) Toshiba (2)HD-A20,PS3,BD35 For SACD/DVD-A Samsung HD-841 Panny 50pz80u plasma SETTINGS RCA HD50LPW162 50"DLP w/HD2+ SA 3250HD 47" LCD+Yamaha5790+HD-A1(bedroom) Harmony 680 + (2) 670s (amazing remote/support) Game room with Onkyo receiver & B&W Speakers The_Cable_Game Take the high ground and be happier

03-17-2007, 03:43 PM	#8
godson Mr. Bill Belecheeeeek. Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: philadelphia Posts: 2,592	And even that seem unlikely to all but the hardcore BD guys right? SD DVD will not be going anywhere in 3 years,thats ridiculous...theres way too much involved. __________________ Breakfast, shmreakfast. Look at the score, for Christ's sake. It's only the second period and I'm up 12 to 2. Breakfasts come and go, Renee, but Hartford, "the Whale," they only beat Vancouver once, maybe twice in a lifetime.

03-17-2007, 03:48 PM	#9
PFC5 Super Moderator Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 28,349	For one, everyone that has a SD DVD player will not own a HDTV in 3 years, nevermind be willing to replace them all for a BD version. Sony is going insane I think THAT is what has inflated their ego beyond biblical proportions. __________________ Denon AVR-887 Klipsch RP-5 Pwred Towers (mains) (525 watts peak each 12"Subs) All Klipsch RC-25(ctr),(2)SS1(surr),(2)SS1(rearSurr) Toshiba (2)HD-A20,PS3,BD35 For SACD/DVD-A Samsung HD-841 Panny 50pz80u plasma SETTINGS RCA HD50LPW162 50"DLP w/HD2+ SA 3250HD 47" LCD+Yamaha5790+HD-A1(bedroom) Harmony 680 + (2) 670s (amazing remote/support) Game room with Onkyo receiver & B&W Speakers The_Cable_Game Take the high ground and be happier

03-17-2007, 01:55 PM	#3
unotis UNOTIS Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: FLORIDA Age: 54 Posts: 3,347	Now that post puts the total format war and it's implications into easy to understand terms and spells out why the HD DVD format would be better for the consumer to adopt. The Blu-ray fanboys will of course hate it and attack in anyway they can dream up (probably mostly through use of Sony press releases declaring their formats inevitable and soon to happen victory and made up statistics showing their ever increasing lead). Let the flaming begin!!

03-17-2007, 05:08 PM	#10
unotis UNOTIS Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: FLORIDA Age: 54 Posts: 3,347	Yes, in this one instance Sony is crazy but, they have their fanboys fully convinced that everything they say is the gospel truth, that "Bluray will rule the earth" and reveal to us common mortals the true meaning of trueHD so we may bask in it's glory! Kinda of sad isn't it because I truly love alot of their products.

03-17-2007, 05:37 PM	#12
PFC5 Super Moderator Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 28,349	Yes I do because they are stating something and devised a plan that is impossible to accomplish. Just because there is so much money at stake, does not mean they can do it. I want to fly without a machine and people would pay me millions/billions to see me do it, but it does not mean that I CAN or could EVER do it. See the dilemma for Sony now? What are they going to say in 3 years when SD DVD is STILL the top media for the consumer? They will have boxed themselves into a corner and WILL look foolish. Mark my words! __________________ Denon AVR-887 Klipsch RP-5 Pwred Towers (mains) (525 watts peak each 12"Subs) All Klipsch RC-25(ctr),(2)SS1(surr),(2)SS1(rearSurr) Toshiba (2)HD-A20,PS3,BD35 For SACD/DVD-A Samsung HD-841 Panny 50pz80u plasma SETTINGS RCA HD50LPW162 50"DLP w/HD2+ SA 3250HD 47" LCD+Yamaha5790+HD-A1(bedroom) Harmony 680 + (2) 670s (amazing remote/support) Game room with Onkyo receiver & B&W Speakers The_Cable_Game Take the high ground and be happier

03-17-2007, 05:47 PM	#13
bruceames Moderator Join Date: May 2006 Location: San Rafael, CA Posts: 10,166	Price is the way to get the penetration they desire. To kill off DVD in three years they would have to: 1) Sell BD players at $50 or preferably $30. 2) Put out the BD version of ALL available DVD content 3) Offer a "rewards" program, along the line of that existing DVD players and movies can be traded in for the BD versions and they will go to your house to do it (setup help included for those interested) and have a huge truck ready outside to replace all the DVDs with identical BDs. To encourage full cooperation in this takeover plan, a free 32" LCD HDTV would be included to reel in the last of the holdouts. However, if any of the above steps are omitted, DVD will be here for a very long time. Just waaaay too much content, waaaay too many SD TVs and DVDs and waaaay too many people who just don't give a damn about HD and would rather pay 1 cent less for a movie whether it's SD or HD. Trying to fight DVD and HD DVD at the same time just creates too many bad guys in my opinion. That would eventually include the consumer. Last edited by bruceames; 03-17-2007 at 05:59 PM.

03-17-2007, 05:54 PM	#14
PFC5 Super Moderator Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 28,349	YUP! That IS about what it would take to get rid of SD DVD. __________________ Denon AVR-887 Klipsch RP-5 Pwred Towers (mains) (525 watts peak each 12"Subs) All Klipsch RC-25(ctr),(2)SS1(surr),(2)SS1(rearSurr) Toshiba (2)HD-A20,PS3,BD35 For SACD/DVD-A Samsung HD-841 Panny 50pz80u plasma SETTINGS RCA HD50LPW162 50"DLP w/HD2+ SA 3250HD 47" LCD+Yamaha5790+HD-A1(bedroom) Harmony 680 + (2) 670s (amazing remote/support) Game room with Onkyo receiver & B&W Speakers The_Cable_Game Take the high ground and be happier