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Blu-Ray player: will it sale?

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Old 05-23-2006, 03:48 AM   #1
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Default Blu-Ray player: will it sale?

I have a question. When Blu-Ray player comes out at $1000 a pop, will it sale enough to beat HD-DVD? I am leaning towards Blu-Ray players but what happens if it disappears even before it has a chance to shine.
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Old 05-23-2006, 06:51 AM   #2
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I don't think it will sell well, there just isn't enough benefits to warrant paying $500 more for a Blue Ray player, in fact the first Blue Ray players will probably be inferior products compared to HD-DVD.

By November Sony will have probably figured out how to do a dual layer disc, come up with some resolution to their Audio codec problem and the PS3 comes out with Blue Ray, the tide could start changing then, but until this winter I don't think Blue Ray will take off. HD-DVD might have such a strong foothold by then that Blue Ray dies before it is even started. You are already hearing about some Blue Ray supporters switching sides by wavering in their Blue Ray only support: Samsung, HP, Disney.

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Old 05-23-2006, 09:08 AM   #3
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Jack, do yourself a favor...cut through the "fanboy bias."

First and foremost, NO winner will be declared by the end of this year and I highly doubt by the end of next.

Neither side will have enough units in place to even make a dent. Regardless, of what some HD-DVD fanatics might try to sell you, Toshiba has only shipped 6,000 of their units so far (in the states) and with only about 4,000 more on the way.

Secondly, Blu-ray players overall will be more advanced than the HD-DVD players. I'm NOT saying they will be less "buggy," nor am I going to say the more advanced hardware is worth the additional $500...that's for each individual consumer to decide.

As for studio support, Sony still currently has more studio backing. While many companies will be supporting both, companies including Disney, still currently remain exclusive to the Blu-ray camp. Virtually every company has stated they won't rule out the possibility of developing for both formats, but that's just the "standard line."

I am NOT pro-BR, nor am I anti-HDDVD. To have a preference is fine, but some people are taking this simple tech battle and turning it into basic human nature of choosing a siding and fighting to the end. With no valid cause other than it's just what humans do. Give this country two sides and they will fight to the death, even if they are fighting over what type of cheese is better...Cheddar or American (if anyone says American, I will shoot you).

"...but until this winter I don't think Blue Ray will take off. HD-DVD might have such a strong foothold by then that Blue Ray dies before it is even started."

Not attacking Corn in particular, but I keep seeing people say this. I don't care which side you are on, there is NO way within six months, one side is going to be on it's way out.

If Toshiba gets blessings from the gods and sells 10,000 units a month for the next six months, it's still ONLY 60,000 units sold. Not factoring the long term success of PS3, it's safe to say it should sell fairly well at launch by hardcore gamers alone. If Sony sells even 100,000 units here this winter, which is should do on launch day alone, that would be 40,000 more BR players in US homes than HD-DVD.

In life, you must remain rational at all times. You ready for my big secret...if I HAD to pick a winner right now, I would say...HD-DVD. Yep, so chew on that HD-DVD fanboys that were "hatin'" on me. HD-DVD has a huge price advantage, is playing it smart having HD and SD movie versions on the same disc, and will eventually get additional studio support. However, as a rational being, I know it's far too early to call, Sony has the more advanced hardware, and if BR camp is able to lower the price (which they might do if PS3 is successful), they should mop the floor with HD-DVD.

But more importantly... I just don't care. Neither format impresses me and I don't have anything riding on the outcome. My advice Jack... Wait till the holiday season to make a purchase. You'll see the movie selection and be able to benefit if there is a price drop (or at least your typical holiday sales). But no matter what... you should get your money's worth out of either one. This battle is going to be here for awhile, so even if a format last two years, it wouldn't of been a complete waste.

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Old 05-23-2006, 09:10 AM   #4
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The players will at least be dual layer. The problem will be with the 20gb movies coming out with them. Everyone will know these titles will be rereleased when Sony gets dual layer disc production under control. Therefore, why buy a temporary movie?
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Old 05-23-2006, 09:19 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames
The players will at least be dual layer. The problem will be with the 20gb movies coming out with them. Everyone will know these titles will be rereleased when Sony gets dual layer disc production under control. Therefore, why buy a temporary movie?
I don't follow you. Why would the movies be re-released?
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Old 05-23-2006, 09:23 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dontknowjack
I have a question. When Blu-Ray player comes out at $1000 a pop, will it sale enough to beat HD-DVD?
Nobody in either camp is going to sell enough to beat anybody this year. This thing's going for the long haul.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cornbread
...until this winter I don't think Blue Ray will take off. HD-DVD might have such a strong foothold by then that Blue Ray dies before it is even started.
How in the world is HD-DVD going to have too strong of a foothold by this winter for BR to stay in the format war? Assuming that they've sold a few hundred thousand players by then, which is a wildly optimistic figure even for the most dedicated HD-DVD cheerleader, (we haven't even hit 20,000 yet, have we?) that would still leave almost the entire 16 million (and growing) HD households in the U.S. untapped. You think either one of these camps has come this far, made this much noise, and spent this much money just to bail out after a few months because of a couple hundred thousand players?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cornbread
You are already hearing about some Blue Ray supporters switching sides by wavering in their Blue Ray only support: Samsung, HP, Disney.
Look, Cornbread, I'm glad you're excited about next-gen HD movies. Unfortunately, you seem to be so in love with the HD-DVD camp that you're willing to say just about anything to make them look good or the BR camp look bad with no regard for the truth. Anyone not caught up on this thing would read the qouted statement and think that Samsung and Disney had embraced HD-DVD, which would be very misleading, and you know it.

Disney has announced absolutely nothing on this subject- as of today, the only camp they're in is BR. I've been following this thing for two years, and one thing I've learned is don't count on anything that doesn't have an official announcement attached to it. This is something that certainly could happen- we've seen similar maneuvers with Warner and Paramount adopting both camps when they were previously only in one, but the problem I have is that you're insinuating that Disney's already there, which is very misleading.

As for Samsung, it's pretty irresponsible to try and say that Samsung is adopting a stance of neutrality simply because they're planning to release a hybrid player. There's a big difference between Samsung releasing a hybrid player, and releasing a stand-alone HD-DVD player. Should I really have to point that out?

Samsung first announced that they were working on a hybrid player well over a year ago. They were squarely in the BR camp then, and they still are right now. They're not releasing a hybrid player because they're considering joining the HD-DVD camp, they're doing it because they think a hybrid player will have a chance of really selling. Many of the manufacturers on both sides, probably everyone but Sony, Panasonic, and Toshiba, may eventually end up making hybrid players simply because there's going to be demand for them- don't confuse that with changes in affiliation.

Here's the official announcement of the hybrid player from the 2006 CES:

http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=28855

And here's another statement from Samsung from the same 2006 CES:

http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=28769

What does that say to you about the chances of seeing a next-gen product by Samsung that doesn't have a BR logo on it?
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Old 05-23-2006, 09:53 AM   #7
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Here's my biggest thing, that I realized moreso when typing my first post in this thread. Lets be rational (at least sales wise) for a moment...

If Toshiba sales (not ships) 10,000 units each month, from May to November, we're saying 70,000 HD-DVD in homes.

On October 26th, 2000... PS2 sold roughly 510,000 units on the first day, I'm talking within 24 hours, in the US alone. I do not believe Sony will sale that many do to the higher price tag and possible shortages due to worldwide launch; however, even if they only did half (which it should do easily), we're talking 250,000 Blu-ray players in homes.

So... 70,000 HD-DVD units within six months vs 250,000 in one day. And this is STILL NOT factoring other standalone Blu-ray players. Tweak the numbers if you like, but by the end of the year, there will probably be at the very least, 100,000 more BR players in this country than HD-DVD. For studios, that means many, many more BR consumers.

Of course you could say, all of the PS3 owners won't care about watching movies. Still doesn't change the fact that BR will have a much larger user base. Furthermore, the people picking up PS3 at launch are tech-ies and gamers. So, if they're willing to spend $500+, best believe they have HDTVs or will be picking one up soon (i.e. will be interested in HD movies).

However, as Strawberry mentioned, there is 16 million plus HDTV owners. So, even a million sales from either platform means little.

But I don't care how fanatic you are...anyone with rational thought should see that by the end of this year, there should easily be more BR players in homes than HD-DVD.

Last edited by LordGamer; 05-23-2006 at 09:56 AM.
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Old 05-23-2006, 10:27 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordGamer
I don't follow you. Why would the movies be re-released?
Oh never mind. Just thinking stupid stuff like maybe people will want HD sound on them. Other reasons too, but probably dumb. But you go ahead and buy them all up.
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Old 05-23-2006, 10:53 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames
The players will at least be dual layer. The problem will be with the 20gb movies coming out with them. Everyone will know these titles will be rereleased when Sony gets dual layer disc production under control. Therefore, why buy a temporary movie?
You're assuming that BR movies will be single layer when that's not fully settled yet.

Beyond that- we can expect to see a lot of re-releases down the road from both camps for a multitude of reasons. For starters, we won't be seeing much if any use of iHD and BD-J interactivity in releases this year, most releases are lacking in special features and audio options, and, in the case of H.264, the encoding process is likely to be much refined a year from now compared to where it is right now- as it was with early DVD releases, there will probably have to be re-issues of many of the early titles due to technological advance.

I don't see why that principle applies to one camp more than the other.
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Old 05-23-2006, 11:09 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames
Oh never mind. Just thinking stupid stuff like maybe people will want HD sound on them. Other reasons too, but probably dumb. But you go ahead and buy them all up.
Strawberry said it all. Space isn't so much the issue, as the players and certain codecs being finalized. For example, neither HD-DVD player supports full "HD audio."

So any re-releases would apply to either camp and it would be no different than similar situations with early DVD players and title releases.
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Old 05-23-2006, 12:13 PM   #11
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The initial BR releases will be single layer at least. But you're right, rereleases will be from both camps. BR's big test will be the side-by-side video quality check with HD DVD. Both on a 1080i and 1080p tv. Will be interesting the difference (if any) on the 1080p tv. Not that I have one mind you (very few do of course).
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6336382.html
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Old 05-23-2006, 12:24 PM   #12
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First off I am not a fanboy to either side. In fact I intend to wait until at least spring 07 before buying either one. I just want HD movies. I don't care if it says toshiba or Sony on the player.

But can we stop saying Blu-Ray is dead. Of course it will sell. And yes even at $1000. If you are talking about short term, by the end of the year, it is going to be in the PS3 for $600. So by the end of the year it will have more market share than HD-DVD. As stated in earlier posts if Sony can get even half the PS3's out at launch as it did with the PS2 there will no doubt be more Blu-Ray players than HD-DVD. And I know the PS3 will cost $600 but I will stake your life on the fact that it will sell out and be as hard to get as the xbox360 was at first. So I ask you: How does that sound like its a dead format?

Does this mean Blu-Ray will win the format war? Of Course not. It only means that by the end of this year there will be more Blu-Ray players in USA households. Whether or not they are even hooked up to a HDTV is a different story. The winner of the format war won't be decided this year. It could be several years or maybe there will never be a clear winner.

One more thing, I heard the PS3 will also play games.
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Old 05-23-2006, 01:14 PM   #13
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One more thing, I heard the PS3 will also play games.


Hehe. That brought a smile to my face. Funny and clever.
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Old 05-23-2006, 02:15 PM   #14
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Bluray dead? Uh, don't you have to be born to die?
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Old 05-23-2006, 02:29 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames
Bluray dead? Uh, don't you have to be born to die?
I don't know if I should insert a joke here. Do I detect a undertone?
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