Can blu-ray truly make it to first base?

ADWyatt · 04-28-2006, 11:31 AM

I've read a number of posts, and spoken to a sizable variety of statewide dealers, that all concur on one point--HD-DVD is in wild demand, and it's becoming increasingly difficult to find a player in any store.

I think the technology's popularity is wonderful, but for me personally, it's a little amusing. In our small community, we have a number of Toshibas for sale, and so far I'm the only one who has bought one. We have only one store selling them and their display is hidden in back, so almost no one has any idea they even exist. Moreover, I'm actually taking my unit back for a refund. Not because it doesn't measure up--in fact, testing on this unit has shown it to produce an amazing picture--but because I've lately decided that this July I'm going to buy a TV with 1080p input, and am hoping either for a 1080p HD-DVD player to be announced, or to see if blu-ray may prove a viable and enduring product. Or rather, if blu-ray is even going to make it to first base.

On paper, BR just blows HD-DVD out of the water--1080p vs. 1080i (for the moment), more studio backing for now (including Disney), and most importantly, the support of the adult video industry, which is certainly not to be taken lightly. HD-DVD, conversely, only has two things going for it. It's the first to launch, and an entry-level unit costs half the price of a blu-ray player.

The cost factor may well be the knuckleball ace on the mound for HD-DVD. Mr. & Mrs. Joe Average might grudgingly pay $499.95 for an HD player for their new HDTV, but $999.95 will cause them to take a deep breath and move on. Will they know how many studios each format has lined up? Will they care? Will it matter to them which format can contain the most 'extras'?

This isn't to say that the Sony BR player, for instance, won't be worth $1,000. I still play the original Sony DVD player from, I beilieve, nine years ago, the DVP-S9000es. After zillions of movies it still performs flawlessly. This massive 52-ton King Tiger tank just will not die. So being, I have every reason to believe Sony's build-philosophy will pass along to the next generation. But there's a big difference in another way between 1997 and 2006--Sony's competition in the past was VCR tape.

A number of BR advocates I've spoken with have repeatedly told me that the Playstation 3 will save the day, and will help to ultimately drive HD-DVD into extinction. Maybe, but the fact that HD-DVD units are selling like crazy, coupled with the fact that Microsoft will provide separate HD-DVD players for their X-Box 360, causes me to have some doubts.

I doubt, too, that if BR gets off the ground it will spell the end of the format war. I think it will mark the beginning. We'd all like to wait for a clear winner, but that might mean waiting for as much as five years, and few people are that patient. So being, as of this writing I think that money spent for HD-DVD players will bring full value for many years to come, even if that format loses the war. Right now, I'm just not certain yet that I will be able to say the same for BR.

GLOW · 04-28-2006, 12:28 PM

"Wild demand"?, I highly doubt that. HD-DVD supporters are blowing its popularity way out of proportion on the internet b/c they want to see the cheaper format win or they already bought an HD-DVD player and want to have a wide selection of movies available to them without having to buy a Blu-ray player or they don't want to support Sony because of what they've done with rootkits and DRM.

PFC5 · 04-28-2006, 01:52 PM

HELLO!

It IS in wild demand! I have 5 Best Buy stores, 3 Walmarts, 2 Sears, 2 Circuit Citys, and a host of Mom & Pop HiFi stores within 20 miles of me, and NO ONE has one for me to buy. They are ALL sold out. I cannot even buy the HD-D1 model at Walmart online because they keep selling out every time I hear they show "In Stock" on there website, by the time i get to the site on the same day, they are already listed as "Sold Out".

Granted there has not been a huge release to retailers yet, but whatever they get is gone immediately if the store personell tell anyone they are in stock. Many Walmarts had them in rural towns that have a population that mostly doesn't know such a device exists, but other than that, no one has them anywhere.

So yeah! I would say "Wildly In Demand" is pretty accurate in my neck of the woods, and most other non-rural areas.

SLedford · 04-28-2006, 02:38 PM

The HD-DVD players have sold out, but the initial production run was 10,000. My understanding is that most big box stores, such as Best Buy, had only 3 - 4 of the players to sell. I read on another post that Toshiba is making 2,000 players per month right now, so it is not likely that they will be able to meet the demand till other manufacturers join in the mix. That is not altogether bad - it keeps a tension / excitement that would otherwise be lacking.

If any of these numbers are accurate, HD-DVD will have a 16,000 player lead on Blue Ray when they pop into the picture in July. As you speculated, at the current list prices, I don't expect BD-DVD to sell as well as the HD-DVD players have.

Lets assume that HD-DVD sales jump to 5,000 per month starting in August, when other manufacturers release HD-DVD players. That would mean sales of approximately 40,000 at the end of the year. Hopefully more product, player price reductions, increase interest will boost sales, but even if we are at 100,000 units sold by the end of the year, this would represent 1/10th of 1 percent of US households, assuming there are 100 million households.

I don't care which format wins, I just want high def DVD of some flavor to stay in the picture. If BD-DVD were to fold, which I doubt, sales would increase (I would buy one). But this level of sales would not be encouraging to me if I my job depended upon the success of this product.

HD-DVD has only been out a few weeks. The other guys have not started the race yet (but will soon) and it is too early to pick a winner. Both runners (continuing my sports analogy) may fail to finish the race.

BD-DVD problem - initial cost of players.
BD-DVD advantage - number of studios supporting it at this time, massive number of PS3 game modules that will be sold that can play BD-DVDs.

HD-DVD problems - players are subsidized right now (can they keep this up), limited (for now) studio support
HD-DVD advantage - player price, first on scene

strawberry · 04-28-2006, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ADWyatt

I've read a number of posts, and spoken to a sizable variety of statewide dealers, that all concur on one point--HD-DVD is in wild demand, and it's becoming increasingly difficult to find a player in any store.

The Toshiba player is not, absolutely not, in any way, shape, form, or fashion in high demand. There's just a ridiculously short supply of them.

It'll be the same story for the BR players when they debut. Low demand, and even lower supply.

Only 15% of American homes even have HD displays, and, at this point, only a small percentage of those HDTV owners are looking to take the next-gen disc plunge this year.

gollum · 04-28-2006, 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PFC5

HELLO!

It IS in wild demand! I have 5 Best Buy stores, 3 Walmarts, 2 Sears, 2 Circuit Citys, and a host of Mom & Pop HiFi stores within 20 miles of me, and NO ONE has one for me to buy. They are ALL sold out. I cannot even buy the HD-D1 model at Walmart online because they keep selling out every time I hear they show "In Stock" on there website, by the time i get to the site on the same day, they are already listed as "Sold Out".

Granted there has not been a huge release to retailers yet, but whatever they get is gone immediately if the store personell tell anyone they are in stock. Many Walmarts had them in rural towns that have a population that mostly doesn't know such a device exists, but other than that, no one has them anywhere.

So yeah! I would say "Wildly In Demand" is pretty accurate in my neck of the woods, and most other non-rural areas.

Or no demand at all...
The HD-DVD players are a completely new format of players, and not just a new dvd player model. Of course the new Xbox was in demand, but that was before Christmas, and people wanted to play the new games with better graphics that would not be available on the discontinued original xbox. But dvds are still around, many people do not yet own HDTVs, and/or are satisfied with dvds for now. Besides, there will most likely only be one type of Xbox360s from one brand, but many different models of HD-DVD players from several manufactures, that will, probably become cheaper with better features in a few months (would you rather buy a 480i dvd player or a high quality upconverting dvd player for the same price and from a better manufacture?). Many people have learned their lesson from the DVD players and don't want to rush into buying a new HD-DVD player that may even become obsolete...

Do you really think a store would buy a large amount of HD-DVD players, just to have to put them on clearance because only a few people have bought them and the new models are coming out?
I believe that most stores are still confused about the two players, and do not want to risk losing money on this new piece of technology, that may not have much demand, or not make it at all. Thats why, they probably only ordered a few because, at this point, its better to sell what they bought at full price, and see if there is any demand for them rather than having to sell the "leftover" players at a reduced price.

Another reason could be that the HD-DVD manufactures just wanted to rush the players into stores before testing them extensively, hoping to get a head start on the HD video format war, and thus not enough time to fill every store in America with a wall of HD-DVD players boxes...

HDMI Fantastic · 04-28-2006, 08:35 PM

I wonder if the studios are happy. I have bought 4 movies. Assuming an average of 3 movies per person (low) by the end of summer-is 30 thousand movies sold (10,000 player's sold) enough to make Warner happy? Or is that just a blip on the radar of DVD sales? (and remember there is a huge markup on these)

I also think it's mostly "guy's like us" that have purchased these. Everyone I talk to is cluleess about this. A good freind of mine has a 42" plasma HDTV and a nice surround system (bought from me since I upgrade 1x a year) and him and his wife have no intention of buying one-even if it was $99 I think it would be a hard sale-especially since they can buy regualr DVD's for $10. Too bad-I think he's missing out-and they watch a lot of movies (unlike myself). I think when the studios start making Dual Disc DVD's (all movies released)-that will have a huge impact. HUGE. "Hmmm-what's that? How much do those player's cost? Is it really a better picture?"

µCOM-4 · 04-29-2006, 03:33 AM

Toshiba said they plan on selling 600K HD DVD players by Mar 2007 so there's no way they're only making 2000 per month. That was probably a misprint.

hdtvpros.com · 04-29-2006, 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by µCOM-4

Toshiba said they plan on selling 600K HD DVD players by Mar 2007 so there's no way they're only making 2000 per month. That was probably a misprint.

You are correct. My local Toshiba rep tells us they will have 12,000 by next week. We have 25 on order. Of course we are a mom and pop shop. If we had the funding and storage are we would buy alot more.

SLedford · 04-29-2006, 01:24 PM

hdtvpros.com,

I appreciate your input on this. There is a ton of information out there, a lot of it conflicting and a lot with "spin" where the poster has a favorite format.

Assuming that there are 15 million with HD televisions (15% of 100 million households), this would represent about 4% of HD television owners. Not an outrageous number for 12 months of selling effort, including the Christmas selling season.

They are going to have to crank up the factories if they are going to produce 600k players in the next 11 months. I suspect the Toshiba players are generating a very small profit (or possibly a loss) in order to gain market share. It will be interesting to see what the non-Toshiba players sell for.

It really will be interesting to see how things change when BD hits the market, and how long they continue to market players in the $1k price range.

nking54580 · 04-29-2006, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by strawberry

The Toshiba player is not, absolutely not, in any way, shape, form, or fashion in high demand. There's just a ridiculously short supply of them.

It'll be the same story for the BR players when they debut. Low demand, and even lower supply.

Only 15% of American homes even have HD displays, and, at this point, only a small percentage of those HDTV owners are looking to take the next-gen disc plunge this year.

I couldn't have said it better myself. People just seem to forget that they only shipped out 10,000 players. I live in New York and the bestbuy I picked up player only received (3) units.

drock912001 · 04-29-2006, 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SLedford

hdtvpros.com,

I appreciate your input on this. There is a ton of information out there, a lot of it conflicting and a lot with "spin" where the poster has a favorite format.

Assuming that there are 15 million with HD televisions (15% of 100 million households), this would represent about 4% of HD television owners. Not an outrageous number for 12 months of selling effort, including the Christmas selling season.

They are going to have to crank up the factories if they are going to produce 600k players in the next 11 months. I suspect the Toshiba players are generating a very small profit (or possibly a loss) in order to gain market share. It will be interesting to see what the non-Toshiba players sell for.

It really will be interesting to see how things change when BD hits the market, and how long they continue to market players in the $1k price range.

A $1000 price is for a techie not the average consumer.SONY had standard dvd players sell for 1k up,and thats even after the cheapies sold real well.Now I think about so did Onkyo,Pioneer and Denon have/had expensive models out.And Onkyo and Denon still sells for over 1.5K.A person who knows his stuff knows there'e a difference in build.Yes toshiba can be had for $500 which is high for an average electronics company.Plus blu-ray has more than 1 manufacturer which could help lower the price,but until hd tvs penetrate more than 15% of the market, the average can justify $500 let alone 1k.Go to an electronics retailer and ask a customer about next generation dvd and they will have no clue what you are talking about.

dontknowjack · 04-30-2006, 04:09 AM

I think we can argue till we are blue in the face that newest techonolgy cost lots of money and that it justifies the price for Blu-Ray. But the real question is are people going to pay that price. If not the price better fall to the level people are willing to pay or it will go the way of the dinosaur.

µCOM-4 · 04-30-2006, 04:48 AM

Toshiba also said they'll have a 2G player out by 4th qtr of this year for $400.

borromini · 04-30-2006, 07:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dontknowjack

I think we can argue till we are blue in the face that newest techonolgy cost lots of money and that it justifies the price for Blu-Ray. But the real question is are people going to pay that price. If not the price better fall to the level people are willing to pay or it will go the way of the dinosaur.

Umm, you just described what happens all the time with CE products. Except the prices don't drop simply because companies are concerned with people buying them. The prices drop as the supply/demand cycle unfolds and improvements on subsequent generation designs and efficiency of manufacturing are achieved...it always does. This is part of the process for the equipment to become mainstream.

The live-or-die process for CE does not get resolved in the first few months of a 1st-generation product release.

04-28-2006, 11:31 AM	#1
ADWyatt High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 153	Can blu-ray truly make it to first base? I've read a number of posts, and spoken to a sizable variety of statewide dealers, that all concur on one point--HD-DVD is in wild demand, and it's becoming increasingly difficult to find a player in any store. I think the technology's popularity is wonderful, but for me personally, it's a little amusing. In our small community, we have a number of Toshibas for sale, and so far I'm the only one who has bought one. We have only one store selling them and their display is hidden in back, so almost no one has any idea they even exist. Moreover, I'm actually taking my unit back for a refund. Not because it doesn't measure up--in fact, testing on this unit has shown it to produce an amazing picture--but because I've lately decided that this July I'm going to buy a TV with 1080p input, and am hoping either for a 1080p HD-DVD player to be announced, or to see if blu-ray may prove a viable and enduring product. Or rather, if blu-ray is even going to make it to first base. On paper, BR just blows HD-DVD out of the water--1080p vs. 1080i (for the moment), more studio backing for now (including Disney), and most importantly, the support of the adult video industry, which is certainly not to be taken lightly. HD-DVD, conversely, only has two things going for it. It's the first to launch, and an entry-level unit costs half the price of a blu-ray player. The cost factor may well be the knuckleball ace on the mound for HD-DVD. Mr. & Mrs. Joe Average might grudgingly pay $499.95 for an HD player for their new HDTV, but $999.95 will cause them to take a deep breath and move on. Will they know how many studios each format has lined up? Will they care? Will it matter to them which format can contain the most 'extras'? This isn't to say that the Sony BR player, for instance, won't be worth $1,000. I still play the original Sony DVD player from, I beilieve, nine years ago, the DVP-S9000es. After zillions of movies it still performs flawlessly. This massive 52-ton King Tiger tank just will not die. So being, I have every reason to believe Sony's build-philosophy will pass along to the next generation. But there's a big difference in another way between 1997 and 2006--Sony's competition in the past was VCR tape. A number of BR advocates I've spoken with have repeatedly told me that the Playstation 3 will save the day, and will help to ultimately drive HD-DVD into extinction. Maybe, but the fact that HD-DVD units are selling like crazy, coupled with the fact that Microsoft will provide separate HD-DVD players for their X-Box 360, causes me to have some doubts. I doubt, too, that if BR gets off the ground it will spell the end of the format war. I think it will mark the beginning. We'd all like to wait for a clear winner, but that might mean waiting for as much as five years, and few people are that patient. So being, as of this writing I think that money spent for HD-DVD players will bring full value for many years to come, even if that format loses the war. Right now, I'm just not certain yet that I will be able to say the same for BR.

04-28-2006, 12:28 PM	#2
GLOW High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Post-Empire America Posts: 10,056	"Wild demand"?, I highly doubt that. HD-DVD supporters are blowing its popularity way out of proportion on the internet b/c they want to see the cheaper format win or they already bought an HD-DVD player and want to have a wide selection of movies available to them without having to buy a Blu-ray player or they don't want to support Sony because of what they've done with rootkits and DRM. Last edited by GLOW; 04-28-2006 at 12:51 PM.

04-28-2006, 01:52 PM	#3
PFC5 Former Super Moderator - RIP Join Date: May 2005 Location: Mass Posts: 38,295	HELLO! It IS in wild demand! I have 5 Best Buy stores, 3 Walmarts, 2 Sears, 2 Circuit Citys, and a host of Mom & Pop HiFi stores within 20 miles of me, and NO ONE has one for me to buy. They are ALL sold out. I cannot even buy the HD-D1 model at Walmart online because they keep selling out every time I hear they show "In Stock" on there website, by the time i get to the site on the same day, they are already listed as "Sold Out". Granted there has not been a huge release to retailers yet, but whatever they get is gone immediately if the store personell tell anyone they are in stock. Many Walmarts had them in rural towns that have a population that mostly doesn't know such a device exists, but other than that, no one has them anywhere. So yeah! I would say "Wildly In Demand" is pretty accurate in my neck of the woods, and most other non-rural areas. __________________ Denon AVR-887 Klipsch RP-5 Pwred Towers (mains) (525 watts peak each 12"Subs) All Klipsch RC-25(ctr),(2)SS1(surr),(2)SS1(rearSurr) Toshiba (2)HD-A20,PS3,BD35 For SACD/DVD-A Samsung HD-841 Panny 50pz80u plasma SETTINGS RCA HD50LPW162 50"DLP w/HD2+ SA 3250HD 47" LCD+Yamaha5790+HD-A1(bedroom) Harmony 680 + (2) 670s (amazing remote/support) Game room with Onkyo receiver & B&W Speakers The_Cable_Game Take the high ground and be happier PSN: PFC5

04-28-2006, 02:38 PM	#4
SLedford HD Fan Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Little Rock, Arkansas Posts: 1,023	The definition of wild demand The HD-DVD players have sold out, but the initial production run was 10,000. My understanding is that most big box stores, such as Best Buy, had only 3 - 4 of the players to sell. I read on another post that Toshiba is making 2,000 players per month right now, so it is not likely that they will be able to meet the demand till other manufacturers join in the mix. That is not altogether bad - it keeps a tension / excitement that would otherwise be lacking. If any of these numbers are accurate, HD-DVD will have a 16,000 player lead on Blue Ray when they pop into the picture in July. As you speculated, at the current list prices, I don't expect BD-DVD to sell as well as the HD-DVD players have. Lets assume that HD-DVD sales jump to 5,000 per month starting in August, when other manufacturers release HD-DVD players. That would mean sales of approximately 40,000 at the end of the year. Hopefully more product, player price reductions, increase interest will boost sales, but even if we are at 100,000 units sold by the end of the year, this would represent 1/10th of 1 percent of US households, assuming there are 100 million households. I don't care which format wins, I just want high def DVD of some flavor to stay in the picture. If BD-DVD were to fold, which I doubt, sales would increase (I would buy one). But this level of sales would not be encouraging to me if I my job depended upon the success of this product. HD-DVD has only been out a few weeks. The other guys have not started the race yet (but will soon) and it is too early to pick a winner. Both runners (continuing my sports analogy) may fail to finish the race. BD-DVD problem - initial cost of players. BD-DVD advantage - number of studios supporting it at this time, massive number of PS3 game modules that will be sold that can play BD-DVDs. HD-DVD problems - players are subsidized right now (can they keep this up), limited (for now) studio support HD-DVD advantage - player price, first on scene

04-28-2006, 08:35 PM	#7
HDMI Fantastic HD since mid 04 Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 326	Guy's Like Us I wonder if the studios are happy. I have bought 4 movies. Assuming an average of 3 movies per person (low) by the end of summer-is 30 thousand movies sold (10,000 player's sold) enough to make Warner happy? Or is that just a blip on the radar of DVD sales? (and remember there is a huge markup on these) I also think it's mostly "guy's like us" that have purchased these. Everyone I talk to is cluleess about this. A good freind of mine has a 42" plasma HDTV and a nice surround system (bought from me since I upgrade 1x a year) and him and his wife have no intention of buying one-even if it was $99 I think it would be a hard sale-especially since they can buy regualr DVD's for $10. Too bad-I think he's missing out-and they watch a lot of movies (unlike myself). I think when the studios start making Dual Disc DVD's (all movies released)-that will have a huge impact. HUGE. "Hmmm-what's that? How much do those player's cost? Is it really a better picture?" Last edited by HDMI Fantastic; 04-28-2006 at 08:39 PM.

04-29-2006, 03:33 AM	#8
µCOM-4 High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 699	Toshiba said they plan on selling 600K HD DVD players by Mar 2007 so there's no way they're only making 2000 per month. That was probably a misprint.

04-29-2006, 01:24 PM	#10
SLedford HD Fan Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Little Rock, Arkansas Posts: 1,023	A lot of conflicting information out there hdtvpros.com, I appreciate your input on this. There is a ton of information out there, a lot of it conflicting and a lot with "spin" where the poster has a favorite format. Assuming that there are 15 million with HD televisions (15% of 100 million households), this would represent about 4% of HD television owners. Not an outrageous number for 12 months of selling effort, including the Christmas selling season. They are going to have to crank up the factories if they are going to produce 600k players in the next 11 months. I suspect the Toshiba players are generating a very small profit (or possibly a loss) in order to gain market share. It will be interesting to see what the non-Toshiba players sell for. It really will be interesting to see how things change when BD hits the market, and how long they continue to market players in the $1k price range.

04-30-2006, 04:09 AM	#13
dontknowjack High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 949	I think we can argue till we are blue in the face that newest techonolgy cost lots of money and that it justifies the price for Blu-Ray. But the real question is are people going to pay that price. If not the price better fall to the level people are willing to pay or it will go the way of the dinosaur.

04-30-2006, 04:48 AM	#14
µCOM-4 High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 699	Toshiba also said they'll have a 2G player out by 4th qtr of this year for $400.

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