Don't Buy Into the HD-DVD and Blu-ray Hype!

doggie · 10-20-2005, 11:45 PM

I'm telling you now - your DVDs and DVD players are NOT going anywhere! They will not become obsolete anytime soon. Too many reasons to list in addition to costs, but let's just say, people are not going to toss out their massive DVD collections so they can pay 3 times as much for 1970s and 1980s movies to replace their DVDs. I like to compare the HD-DVD and Blu-ray to their audio counterparts - DVD-Audio and SACD. Sure these 2 technologies are better than your standard CD, but how many people do you know even have SACD players? Have you gone to your local Best Buy and taken a look at their meager SACD selections? And SACDs have been around for a long time. I'm not saying Blu-ray and HD-DVD is entirely a marketing scam, but I really do think it is a self-serving means for the movie industry to finally defeat pirating. I had high-def HBO and Showtime, and although they were clearer than DVD, I can't imagine myself tossing out my DVD player and buying an HD player which won't even play my old DVDs (all 300 of them) just for the slight improvement. Okay, supposedly HD-DVD players will play old DVDs, but that's beside the point. What I'm saying is I'll settle for my crummy DVD quality for a long time before I even thinking about HD players or recorders.

ja2935 · 10-21-2005, 06:37 AM

Yes - I tend to agree, I am constantly surprised at how good DVDs look on my set-up. I have had HBO HD since the new year and whilst the pq is good imho not always as good as say Discovery HD. I think a lot will depend on individual requirements and what is acceptable to the individual. I'm certain however that 1080 DVDs will look at least as good as the best HD stations!

I still have (and occasionally play) a considerable collection of vinyl LPs - over the years I have been gradually replacing many with CDs and I would suppose the same will happen for many people with HD DVD/Blu Ray.

JimH · 10-21-2005, 07:31 AM

Sure DVD players won't be going anywhere for a while, but not because of the difference in quality, it will be the cost.

Your comparison to the SACD/DVD-Audio market is quite different. Most people have not jumped on the new audio formats because the difference in quality is unperceivable to many. It is mostly an audiophile format for now.

But the video quality difference will be easily seen by anyone who compares the two formats. I've seen the output of an HD-DVD player at CEDIA last month and was impressed.

strawberry · 10-21-2005, 07:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by doggie

I'm telling you now - your DVDs and DVD players are NOT going anywhere! They will not become obsolete anytime soon. Too many reasons to list in addition to costs, but let's just say, people are not going to toss out their massive DVD collections so they can pay 3 times as much for 1970s and 1980s movies to replace their DVDs. I like to compare the HD-DVD and Blu-ray to their audio counterparts - DVD-Audio and SACD. Sure these 2 technologies are better than your standard CD, but how many people do you know even have SACD players? Have you gone to your local Best Buy and taken a look at their meager SACD selections? And SACDs have been around for a long time. I'm not saying Blu-ray and HD-DVD is entirely a marketing scam, but I really do think it is a self-serving means for the movie industry to finally defeat pirating. I had high-def HBO and Showtime, and although they were clearer than DVD, I can't imagine myself tossing out my DVD player and buying an HD player which won't even play my old DVDs (all 300 of them) just for the slight improvement. Okay, supposedly HD-DVD players will play old DVDs, but that's beside the point. What I'm saying is I'll settle for my crummy DVD quality for a long time before I even thinking about HD players or recorders.

I can understand your general sentiment- but your post is riddled with inncacuracies. For starters- both BR and HD-DVD will be backward compatible with standard DVD's.

This next part is for you and the poster below you as well- you guys need to realize that you cannot in any way compare the cruddy HD feed of HBO you get from your cruddy cable company to the picture quality you're going to see from HD content playing back on a BR or HD-DVD disc. A nearly perfect analogy would be this:

"I have a VHS player, and I don't want to upgrade all my VHS's to DVD's, and I'm mad that my VHS tapes won't play in a DVD player. Besides, I used to have digital cable, which, like DVD, runs at 720X480 in an MPEG-2 format, and it didn't look all that much better than VHS to me- it was sharper, but not enough to make me ditch my VHS collection for these darn goofy discs!!!"

The truth of the matter is that the HD feeds you've seen from your cable company only barely meet the specifications of what's really High Def. Most channels are broadcast at 1080i- but what you're not being told is that the broadcast is being downsampled from 1080X1920 to 1080X1440 in order to keep the total bandwidth of the signal for that channel lower. Additionally, most HD broadcast feeds are running on MPEG-2, an archaic compression method that simply isn't efficient enough to make HD look good without running at a huge bitrate- optimally, it should run at 40-50 mbps. Your cable or satellite company? They run at around 20 mbps, again, to save bandwidth.

The next-gen discs will utilize much better compression methods than MPEG-2, and they will both support resolutions all the way up to true 1080p. The difference between the new formats and the broadcasts you have seen will be very pronounced for the same reasons that your current DVD's blow away the average SD digital cable channel.

I don't really have a quarrel with your main point- these formats may very well both fail and go by the wayside- but if they do, it won't be because they didn't present major advantages over the current format as well as backward compatibility- it will be because of a lack of unified support for one format accross all manufacturers and studios.

LordGamer · 10-21-2005, 08:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by strawberry

The next-gen discs will utilize much better compression methods than MPEG-2, and they will both support resolutions all the way up to true 1080p. The difference between the new formats and the broadcasts you have seen will be very pronounced for the same reasons that your current DVD's blow away the average SD digital cable channel.

Good statement.

Will HD-DVD or BR players dominate sales in 2006, no. 2007, no. 2008, maybe. No one (I hope) is thinking one of these HD formats are just going to crush current standard DVD sales "off the gun," it won't happen. However, in time, there will be a shift. Just like how DVD players didn't crush VHS when the format debut, but did over time. Or even CDs and cassettes.

In 2006 if anyone throws away their DVD players and movie collections, they are a fool. The HD player market will just be beginning and not have a solid grasp. But eventually, there will be one format standing, making it easier for the consumer and prices will drop. Furthermore, the difference between DVD quality and the upcoming HD formats, should be night and day. Hell, as Strawberry mentioned, you will easily see a difference between an HD broadcast and HD picture coming from an HD player (just as you do now with DVD vs SD digital cable).

strawberry · 10-21-2005, 08:25 AM

Hey, Lord Gamer, a bit of a change of subject- but are you excited for Nov. 22nd?

I know I am.

LordGamer · 10-21-2005, 08:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by strawberry

Hey, Lord Gamer, a bit of a change of subject- but are you excited for Nov. 22nd?

I know I am.

Haha...you kidding me?

I took off work, told my girlfriend to not even try to plan something or bug me (actually, I'm trying to make her sit with me all day to appreciate high quality visuals on HD), and plan on getting a good supply of snacks and beverages. I have one reserved, but not sure if I will go at midnight to pick it up (if they - EB - have a midnight sale) or just wait till the morning.

You know it's bad when you haven't been able to sleep at night, because you are wondering what will you do first when you get the package (I won't cry...much). What makes it sort of even more special, my birthday is on the 23rd. Sadly though, I work on the 23rd, but I'm off on the 24th and the 25th, so it will be ok.

Not sure if you have Xbox Live, but my gamertag is WhirlwindDragon. Feel free to send me an invite.

I highly recommend all that have an HDTV, to buy an Xbox 360. This is as close as guys will come to knowing the "joys" of child birth.

strawberry · 10-21-2005, 08:59 AM

Awesome. I'm a little upset because I have to travel out to the west coast on the 23rd, so I'm only going to get one evening with it before leaving, but I sure am looking forward to it. I may get a LIVE subscription down the road, but I don't have one as of yet. In any case- it's going to be a happy time!

doggie · 10-21-2005, 09:30 AM

Blu-ray players will not be backwards compatible and support existing DVDs - that was the big sticking point. How would Sony convince people to add yet another component in their cabinet.

Also, I am not saying that HD is not a vast improvement in picture quality over DVD. But is the content of past or future movies, TV series, and concerts going to make people switch yet again to the latest format? You cannot compare the rapid adoption of DVD over VHS to this new hype surrounding HD because it seems picture quality is HD's only selling point. Personally, the selling points of DVDs to me were the space it saved versus VHS, the instant access to different points in a movie, the extra features that could be added to DVD, the longer they last due to time and wear and tear, and that I could make perfect digital copies. And that last point alone may kill the HD push. Why? Because if/when they do come out with HD recorders, consumers will find they can record little on their $50 HD media disc due to the copyright protections on HD signals they get (the real reason why the movie and TV industry love HD). And forget about making copies of HD discs you buy from the store. Don't tell me that DVD piracy hasn't been a big part of the DVD boom. Those 100-pack spindles of DVD blanks fly off the shelves at Best Buy.

As for the higher picture quality, ask yourself how many movies do you have to own in HD quality? And will HD make much of a difference for movies of say, pre-1985? And your classic TV series like Seinfeld and Cheers which were filmed originally in non-HD format? It may be the insatiable demand for better picture quality in porn that is the only driver for HD in a few years.
I am excited that there's going to be a new, better option like HD-DVD and Blu-ray, but I'm not going to be the guinea pig for Sony if they drop this technology like they've done with so many others. Between Sony and Microsoft, there must be 100 products they've left consumers holding the bag.

strawberry · 10-21-2005, 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by doggie

Blu-ray players will not be backwards compatible and support existing DVDs - that was the big sticking point.

*Ahem*- now make sure you're paying attention because you evidently were not paying any the first time:

Blu-ray players WILL BE backward compatible. There has never been a sticking point on this issue. Both BR and HD-DVD players will be backward compatible. This was never a "can we pull this off?" type of issue- it's as simple as adding a red laser to the player in addition to the blue one- and the manufacturers have said across the board for both formats that they will be doing just that. Case closed. Heck- it was never open in the first place.

As for the rest of your post- you're listing out all of your personal reasons as to why you won't be adopting either format- and I'm not going to tell you you're wrong for feeling the way you do. This is going to be a slow adoption- fewer than 15% of U.S. households even have HD displays right now. We're talking about a slow transition here- probably 3 or 4 years before the DVD rack at Best Buy is smaller than the HD-DVD or BR rack.

LordGamer · 10-21-2005, 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by doggie

You cannot compare the rapid adoption of DVD over VHS to this new hype surrounding HD because it seems picture quality is HD's only selling point. Personally, the selling points of DVDs to me were the space it saved versus VHS, the instant access to different points in a movie, the extra features that could be added to DVD, the longer they last due to time and wear and tear, and that I could make perfect digital copies.

That is a very good point. So, I will agree with you there. And really, I can't think of what more than HD quality the new formats would offer (but then again, I haven't study them in detail).

Personally, I would like to see smaller technology.

However, you are still thinking in terms of the present and past, not the future. HD is growing fast and it's HD in general that will be pushing the formats. But there is another, probably bigger factor. The Industry. Once HD players are affordable, if the major studios want HD to be the leader, it will be.

Keep in mind, I'm talking about the future. DVDs still have a solid five years left in them. There is a chance the HD formats might not quite catch on, but something will take their place.

myers830 · 10-21-2005, 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by doggie

I'm telling you now - your DVDs and DVD players are NOT going anywhere! They will not become obsolete anytime soon. Too many reasons to list in addition to costs, but let's just say, people are not going to toss out their massive DVD collections so they can pay 3 times as much for 1970s and 1980s movies to replace their DVDs. I like to compare the HD-DVD and Blu-ray to their audio counterparts - DVD-Audio and SACD. Sure these 2 technologies are better than your standard CD, but how many people do you know even have SACD players? Have you gone to your local Best Buy and taken a look at their meager SACD selections? And SACDs have been around for a long time. I'm not saying Blu-ray and HD-DVD is entirely a marketing scam, but I really do think it is a self-serving means for the movie industry to finally defeat pirating. I had high-def HBO and Showtime, and although they were clearer than DVD, I can't imagine myself tossing out my DVD player and buying an HD player which won't even play my old DVDs (all 300 of them) just for the slight improvement. Okay, supposedly HD-DVD players will play old DVDs, but that's beside the point. What I'm saying is I'll settle for my crummy DVD quality for a long time before I even thinking about HD players or recorders.

Think about the poor saps shelling out all kinds of money for 1080p TVs.

doggie · 10-21-2005, 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by myers830

Think about the poor saps shelling out all kinds of money for 1080p TVs.

I guess I'll have to toss out my outdated HDTV which can only handle 1080i when Blu-ray comes out with 1080p movies.

fryet · 10-21-2005, 05:34 PM

Your TV can handle 1080p, it will just downgrade it to 1080i format. For that matter, the new players will also be willing to downgrade the picture for you, if your TV for some reason can't. People will buy the next generation DVD players. They just spent $2k+ on a HDTV to get improved picture quality (it certainly wasn't for the sound). If improved picture quality was not important to them, they would not have bought the TV. Just buy an EDTV instead.

doggie · 10-21-2005, 11:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by strawberry

*Ahem*- now make sure you're paying attention because you evidently were not paying any the first time:

Blu-ray players WILL BE backward compatible. There has never been a sticking point on this issue. Both BR and HD-DVD players will be backward compatible. This was never a "can we pull this off?" type of issue- it's as simple as adding a red laser to the player in addition to the blue one- and the manufacturers have said across the board for both formats that they will be doing just that. Case closed. Heck- it was never open in the first place.

As for the rest of your post- you're listing out all of your personal reasons as to why you won't be adopting either format- and I'm not going to tell you you're wrong for feeling the way you do. This is going to be a slow adoption- fewer than 15% of U.S. households even have HD displays right now. We're talking about a slow transition here- probably 3 or 4 years before the DVD rack at Best Buy is smaller than the HD-DVD or BR rack.

Sony found a way around the incompatibility by stuffing 2 different components into one player - a DVD player and a Blu-ray player. Basically, they are selling people a combo DVD/Blu-ray player much like a DVD/VCR combo player and will pass the costs to the consumer without them even knowing it. Sneaky bastards, aren't they?

Obviously there's going to be a market for HD movies, but I think it's growth is going to resemble SACD and DVD-Audio more than DVD. As soon as people find out they won't be able to record the HDTV programs coming over their TVs because of the HDCP blocking, that will all but kill the sale of Blu-ray recorders.

10-20-2005, 11:45 PM	#1
doggie TimeWarnerStinks Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 210	Don't Buy Into the HD-DVD and Blu-ray Hype! I'm telling you now - your DVDs and DVD players are NOT going anywhere! They will not become obsolete anytime soon. Too many reasons to list in addition to costs, but let's just say, people are not going to toss out their massive DVD collections so they can pay 3 times as much for 1970s and 1980s movies to replace their DVDs. I like to compare the HD-DVD and Blu-ray to their audio counterparts - DVD-Audio and SACD. Sure these 2 technologies are better than your standard CD, but how many people do you know even have SACD players? Have you gone to your local Best Buy and taken a look at their meager SACD selections? And SACDs have been around for a long time. I'm not saying Blu-ray and HD-DVD is entirely a marketing scam, but I really do think it is a self-serving means for the movie industry to finally defeat pirating. I had high-def HBO and Showtime, and although they were clearer than DVD, I can't imagine myself tossing out my DVD player and buying an HD player which won't even play my old DVDs (all 300 of them) just for the slight improvement. Okay, supposedly HD-DVD players will play old DVDs, but that's beside the point. What I'm saying is I'll settle for my crummy DVD quality for a long time before I even thinking about HD players or recorders.

10-21-2005, 06:37 AM	#2
ja2935 High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Atlanta, GA Posts: 1,034	Yes - I tend to agree, I am constantly surprised at how good DVDs look on my set-up. I have had HBO HD since the new year and whilst the pq is good imho not always as good as say Discovery HD. I think a lot will depend on individual requirements and what is acceptable to the individual. I'm certain however that 1080 DVDs will look at least as good as the best HD stations! I still have (and occasionally play) a considerable collection of vinyl LPs - over the years I have been gradually replacing many with CDs and I would suppose the same will happen for many people with HD DVD/Blu Ray. __________________ Toshiba 34HF84 Comcast Motorola DCT 3416 (all digital), Component/Fiber Optic Toshiba SD4900 (Region Free), Component/Digital Coax Toshiba HD-A2, HDMI/Fiber Optic Yamaha YHT-160 Home Theater System

10-21-2005, 08:25 AM	#6
strawberry HD is the Lord. Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Lawrence, KS Posts: 1,635	Hey, Lord Gamer, a bit of a change of subject- but are you excited for Nov. 22nd? I know I am. __________________ Home Theater Setup ISF-Calibrated Hitachi 57S500 HDTV Denon 2807 AVR 7.1 JBL Venue Series Speaker System Toshiba HD-A1 PS3 60 Gig Xbox 360 Premium Moxi BMC 9022 DVR Logitech Harmony 880

10-21-2005, 08:59 AM	#8
strawberry HD is the Lord. Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Lawrence, KS Posts: 1,635	Awesome. I'm a little upset because I have to travel out to the west coast on the 23rd, so I'm only going to get one evening with it before leaving, but I sure am looking forward to it. I may get a LIVE subscription down the road, but I don't have one as of yet. In any case- it's going to be a happy time! __________________ Home Theater Setup ISF-Calibrated Hitachi 57S500 HDTV Denon 2807 AVR 7.1 JBL Venue Series Speaker System Toshiba HD-A1 PS3 60 Gig Xbox 360 Premium Moxi BMC 9022 DVR Logitech Harmony 880

10-21-2005, 09:30 AM	#9
doggie TimeWarnerStinks Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 210	Blu-ray players will not be backwards compatible and support existing DVDs - that was the big sticking point. How would Sony convince people to add yet another component in their cabinet. Also, I am not saying that HD is not a vast improvement in picture quality over DVD. But is the content of past or future movies, TV series, and concerts going to make people switch yet again to the latest format? You cannot compare the rapid adoption of DVD over VHS to this new hype surrounding HD because it seems picture quality is HD's only selling point. Personally, the selling points of DVDs to me were the space it saved versus VHS, the instant access to different points in a movie, the extra features that could be added to DVD, the longer they last due to time and wear and tear, and that I could make perfect digital copies. And that last point alone may kill the HD push. Why? Because if/when they do come out with HD recorders, consumers will find they can record little on their $50 HD media disc due to the copyright protections on HD signals they get (the real reason why the movie and TV industry love HD). And forget about making copies of HD discs you buy from the store. Don't tell me that DVD piracy hasn't been a big part of the DVD boom. Those 100-pack spindles of DVD blanks fly off the shelves at Best Buy. As for the higher picture quality, ask yourself how many movies do you have to own in HD quality? And will HD make much of a difference for movies of say, pre-1985? And your classic TV series like Seinfeld and Cheers which were filmed originally in non-HD format? It may be the insatiable demand for better picture quality in porn that is the only driver for HD in a few years. I am excited that there's going to be a new, better option like HD-DVD and Blu-ray, but I'm not going to be the guinea pig for Sony if they drop this technology like they've done with so many others. Between Sony and Microsoft, there must be 100 products they've left consumers holding the bag. Last edited by doggie; 10-21-2005 at 09:35 AM.

10-21-2005, 07:31 AM	#3
JimH High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Connecticut Posts: 41	Sure DVD players won't be going anywhere for a while, but not because of the difference in quality, it will be the cost. Your comparison to the SACD/DVD-Audio market is quite different. Most people have not jumped on the new audio formats because the difference in quality is unperceivable to many. It is mostly an audiophile format for now. But the video quality difference will be easily seen by anyone who compares the two formats. I've seen the output of an HD-DVD player at CEDIA last month and was impressed.

10-21-2005, 05:34 PM	#14
fryet High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Bay Area, CA Age: 38 Posts: 634	Your TV can handle 1080p, it will just downgrade it to 1080i format. For that matter, the new players will also be willing to downgrade the picture for you, if your TV for some reason can't. People will buy the next generation DVD players. They just spent $2k+ on a HDTV to get improved picture quality (it certainly wasn't for the sound). If improved picture quality was not important to them, they would not have bought the TV. Just buy an EDTV instead.

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